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Arctic sea ice 2019

icy art

Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 12 Jun 2019, 04:29:56

Thanks for the pics Newfie, truly works of art by mother nature.....

Aha, chasing ice are we? Happy hunting my dear fellow ice junkies.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 048,75.578

The heat is on, almost 23 degrees at lemmy see, East Siberian Islands,

https://polarbearscience.com/2013/02/18 ... d-siberia/
https://polarbearscience.files.wordpres ... marked.jpg

Ancient hunters lived at this site between 8,200 and 8,500 years ago, when sea levels were lower than today (Pitul’ko and Kasparov 1996) but not nearly as low as they had been at the peak of the Last Glacial period (the “Last Glacial Maxium”). This period has been called the “Younger-Younger Dryas” (see Table 1 below) because it briefly interrupted the otherwise warmer-than-today climate with a return to relatively cold conditions. The so-called “8.2k” event occurred during this period, when the ice dam on glacial Lake Agassiz broke, spilling a tremendous amount of fresh water into Davis Strait and North Atlantic (see previous post here).

By about 8,000 BP, sea level had risen enough to create the islands almost as they are today, but at the time the polar bear hunters lived on Zhokhov Island, it was still connected to the Siberian mainland. The New Siberian Islands would have been part of an expanse of low ground jutting into the Arctic Ocean (a rather broad peninsula), with the hills of Zhokhov Island on its northern end.

Anyway, Kotelny Island has reached a stunning 23 degrees Celcius!

Enough to flash melt any sea ice and to the west a very large polymnia has already formed by the drift of the sea ice pack, the Gyre in reverse.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png

This could be it, 3 months to go before any refreeze and main pack nearly loose fom the continents, cold drain through the North Atlantic, see Spain clilled to 6 degrees C.
https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 927,25.982
Even west sahara down to 15 degrees C.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 081557.htm
Summary:
The dramatic loss of ice in the Arctic is influencing sea-ice transport across the Arctic Ocean. Today only 20 percent of the sea ice that forms in the shallow Russian marginal seas of the Arctic Ocean actually reaches the Central Arctic, where it joins the Transpolar Drift; the remaining 80 percent of the young ice melts before it has a chance to leave its 'nursery.'

The shallow Russian shelf or marginal seas of the Arctic Ocean are broadly considered to be the 'nursery' of Arctic sea ice: in winter, the Barents Sea, Kara Sea, Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea constantly produce new sea ice. This is due to extremely low air temperatures down to minus 40 degrees Celsius, and a strong offshore wind that drives the young ice out to the open sea. In the course of the winter, the sea ice is eventually caught up in the Transpolar Drift, one of the two main currents in the Arctic Ocean. In two to three years' time, it transports the ice floes from the Siberian part of the Arctic Ocean, across the Central Arctic, and into the Fram Strait, where it finally melts. Two decades ago, roughly half the ice from Russia's shelf seas made this transarctic journey. Today only 20 percent does; the other 80 percent of the young ice melts before it can become a year old and reach the Central Arctic.
Experts from the Alfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) came to this troubling conclusion after monitoring and analysing the sea ice's movements with the aid of satellite data from 1998 to 2017. "Our study shows extreme changes in the Arctic: the melting of sea ice in the Kara Sea, Laptev Sea and East Siberian Sea is now so rapid and widespread that we're seeing a lasting reduction in the amount of new ice for the Transpolar Drift. Now, most of the ice that still reaches the Fram Strait isn't formed in the marginal seas, but comes from the Central Arctic. What we're witnessing is a major transport current faltering, which is bringing the world one major step closer to a sea-ice-free summer in the Arctic," says first author Dr Thomas Krumpen, a sea-ice physicist at the Alfred Wegener Institute.


If we dodge the bullit this year, we will have our head shot the next, luck eventually runs out with the arctic death spiral.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby GoghGoner » Wed 12 Jun 2019, 07:08:09

This is a snippet from June's http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/. This seemingly conflicts with the notion that storms cause the most variation that I have seen on Neven's forums. I would have to dig more into the study to see if a year with anomalous storms didn't correlate with temperature as much as other years. Anyway, another piece to the puzzle.

Most of the sea ice variations are thus directly caused by mid-atmospheric temperature conditions; this is evident in both observational data and climate models. Their study implies that year-to-year fluctuations in sea ice extent are easier to understand than previously thought. However, their study also suggests that it may be more difficult to predict the summer extent of Arctic sea ice from one year to the next, because the problem of predicting atmospheric heat transport is closely related to the challenges of long-term weather forecasting.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 09:01:06

Sorry, more bad news:

Tons of Dead Seals Are Washing Up In the Arctic and Nobody Knows Why


https://www.vice.com/amp/en_us/article/ ... -knows-why
A mysterious string of seal deaths along an Alaskan coastline has triggered a federal investigation.

The carcasses of at least 60 ice seals—bearded, ringed, and spotted seals—have been discovered near the Arctic’s Bering and Chukchi seas on Alaska’s western coast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) announced in a press release on Wednesday.

https://www.fisheries.noaa.gov/media-re ... sea-region

The agency received multiple reports of dead seals on Monday in Norton Sound, a Bering Sea inlet and subsistence hunting area for Indigenous communities. A hunter from the local city of Kotlik found 18 carcasses along 11 miles of shoreline, and “dozens” more across the bay on Stuart Island, NOAA said.

Further north, a biologist with the National Park Service encountered six dead seals along the Chukchi shoreline between Kotzebue Airport and Sadie Creek, NOAA added. Members of the public also reported 30 carcasses up the coast between Kivalina and Point Hope.

... NOAA likened these symptoms to an event that killed 233 seals between 2011 and 2016 in northern Alaska. At least 657 dead and live seals presented with hair loss and lesions that were ultimately blamed on an “abnormality of the molt.” The agency declared it an Unusual Mortality Event, defined as “a stranding that is unexpected; involves a significant die-off of any marine mammal population; and demands immediate response.”


--------------------

Alaskans find more dead seals along warming Arctic Sea

https://mobile.reuters.com/article/amp/idUSKCN1TE010
Ice in the Bering and Chukchi seas has been far scarcer than normal, and sea-surface temperatures have been far higher than usual, according to scientists and agency reports. But the cause of the seal die-off is as yet unknown, said Julie Speegle, an Alaska spokeswoman for NOAA Fisheries.

Sea-surface temperatures along the coastlines of the Bering Sea and the southern Chukchi Sea were as much as 4.5 degrees Celsius (8.1 Fahrenheit) above normal last month and remained well above normal as of this week, according to NOAA data.

Bearded, spotted and ringed seals use sea ice as platforms for food foraging, for resting and for raising their young. Alaska's bearded and ringed seals are currently listed as threatened under the Endangered Species Act.

The reports of dead seals, which started in May and come from village residents and a National Park Service biologist, coincide with mounting discoveries of dead gray whales along the West Coast from California to Alaska.


(Coincidentally, the USS Theodore Roosevelt Carrier Strike Group (including submarines) recently sailed to Alaska and is conducting War Games in the area.)
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 17:40:51

No laughing matter

https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/ ... -expected/

The warming Arctic permafrost may be releasing more nitrous oxide, a potent greenhouse gas, than previously thought
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dissident » Sat 15 Jun 2019, 08:58:18

Warming of the Arctic is bringing with it more disease as is the case around the world. Tropical diseases are migrating north and south. The seals are experiencing viral and bacterial strains that they are not used to. It may well be that global shipping is transplanting pathogens to the Arctic. But warming is what is allowing them to take a foothold.

As the sea ice declines and the Arctic becomes a major shipping route, we will see more marine mammal deaths such as this. The march of human progress goes on and humans will follow it into oblivion.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 15 Jun 2019, 14:15:06

dis write: "As the sea ice declines and the Arctic becomes a major shipping route, we will see more marine mammal deaths such as this."

Undoubtedly true, as far as I can see. But watch out dis...you could get in trouble with some mods for making dire predictions, however well based in facts and common sense... :/
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 15 Jun 2019, 18:33:27

Arctic permafrost now melting at levels not expected until 2090



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... aV_apoUPcQ
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby jupiters_release » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 12:18:59

careinke wrote:
Ibon wrote:can you imagine how exotic these photos will one day appear to future generations when the arctic is ice free. Children will look at these giant icebergs with the same imagination that they look at images of dinosaurs today.


IF there are future generations......


Can't tell if it's subliminal bargaining, fooling himself, or both.

:-D
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 12:50:31

jupiters_release wrote:
careinke wrote:
Ibon wrote:can you imagine how exotic these photos will one day appear to future generations when the arctic is ice free. Children will look at these giant icebergs with the same imagination that they look at images of dinosaurs today.


IF there are future generations......


Can't tell if it's subliminal bargaining, fooling himself, or both.

:-D


Ok then lets make it a sentient octopus looking out from inside the cranium of a dead homo sapien that does the contemplation of icebergs
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 12:57:08

onlooker wrote:
Arctic permafrost now melting at levels not expected until 2090



https://www.independent.co.uk/news/worl ... aV_apoUPcQ

I was just looking at the NASA satellite image for today, what is available of it, for the Arctic. Instead on constipating over the sea ice, I looked at the land. You can see that there are plenty of still frozen ponds and lakes near the sea, In places, they dominate the land form. But there is plenty of open land, with its low albedo. I looked at a Russian lake that had a few big ice chunks still floating in it, though most of its water was darker in color. It was quite a ways back from the Arctic, more in the direction of the first peninsula that stretches southward along the Russian coast. I guess, Kamchatka.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 13:43:49

Have you really never heard of the WACCy phenomenon: "(relatively) Warm Arctic (Ocean) (relatively) Cold Continents" ?

Finding ice somewhere in the world says little about the state of global warming, just as throwing a snowball in the US Congress has no scientific relevance.

Ya got anything else?
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 16 Jun 2019, 14:21:36

dohboi wrote:Have you really never heard of the WACCy phenomenon: "(relatively) Warm Arctic (Ocean) (relatively) Cold Continents" ?

Finding ice somewhere in the world says little about the state of global warming, just as throwing a snowball in the US Congress has no scientific relevance.

Ya got anything else?

Sorry, you aren't catching out a denier. I'm not denying anything. You misunderstood what I was saying. I was saying that the land is warm enough to release methane. I'm thankful that water visible from space which is confined to land might still be frozen, to reduce potential methane release. I went back and checked that same lake over every year for more than the last decade. There doesn't appear to be much correlation to climate change per se, or to what the sea ice extent eventually came to in that year. It looks more random. One thing that is really interesting is how fast the snow cover goes away every year, once it gets past the end of May. This year is really stark for that, with even less tell tale snow hanging on after everything else was gone than some prior years, if that means anything.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 17 Jun 2019, 14:43:53

dohboi wrote:dis write: "As the sea ice declines and the Arctic becomes a major shipping route, we will see more marine mammal deaths such as this."

Undoubtedly true, as far as I can see. But watch out dis...you could get in trouble with some mods for making dire predictions, however well based in facts and common sense... :/


Which mod are you referring to? Be specific, show citation.
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Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 19 Jun 2019, 13:19:33

https://edition.cnn.com/2019/06/17/heal ... index.html

CNN)Steffen Olsen, a scientist with the Danish Meteorological Institute, was on a routine mission in northwest Greenland to retrieve oceanographic and weather monitoring tools placed by his colleagues on sea ice when he ran into a problem.
He couldn't see them -- the usually flat white sea ice was covered in water, the result of flooding from Greenland's ice sheet, the second largest on the planet.
The incredible photo he took, of sled dogs ankle deep in a wide expanse of light blue water, quickly went viral, destined to join pictures of starving polar bears, shrunken glaciers, stranded walruses and lakes turned bone dry in the pantheon of evidence of our ongoing climate catastrophe.

As Olsen said on Twitter, communities in Greenland -- mainly indigenous -- "rely on the sea ice for transport, hunting and fishing." They will be among the first affected by the melting of the ice sheet, but the repercussions will not remain limited to Greenland or even North America.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 03:05:28

http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 24 Jun 2019, 14:42:43



So is Guy where you have placed your father figure needs nowadays ralfy? Have you spoken to Matt about this change in doom interest, asked his permission, maybe did a seance with him to check with the spirits, before moving on to another quasi-religious doom group to hang with?
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Tomorrow might never come

Unread postby Whitefang » Wed 26 Jun 2019, 01:22:20

No sea ice free arctic ocean this year :-D around 10 min into the interview.
That is good news, we might have a few years of sea ice cover left.

Just bought Guy his book, 8 dollars on kindle, dancing at the edge of extinction......he does paint a gloomy picture but he comes up with using the awareness of your death as advisor, about the only thing that can give us the sobriety to choose a path with a heart, and enjoy it up to the end.
We cannot live life anymore as if death will never touch us, like immortal beings, like ignorant fools, arrogant youngsters, big children.
We need to grow up, fast.

We are used to think we have time, that is a huge mistake.
7 days a week and someday is not one of them.
As an immortal being you can be a permanent asshole, a petty little tyrant since it does not matter, you have all the time in the world.
We should be gratefull for teachers like him, pointing us in the right direction.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 002,75.646

East Siberian island, Kolnyna? at 23.4 degrees C.
High pressure between Iceland and Ireland instead of Azoren, faint low pressure between Iceland and Spitsbergen, giant low between Nova Zembla and the Yamal peninsula, the end of the world. Pulling 30 degrees C heat from Siberia accros the pole to Spitsbergen.....

Heat is on, we need to hurry, get on with your to do list with the full awareness of death stalking you on this stage, this battle of your personality and inner voice. All of us socialized humans have been misled, self domesticated stupidity, including me :oops:
We need to change our ugly ways and habits.
We need to live like tomorrow might never come, make a fresh start in the face of annihilation, with our backs against the wall.

https://www.bing.com/videos/search?q=to ... &FORM=VIRE

Grace, Jeff Buckley, waiving goodbye……..his cover of Hallalujah by Cohen were the best ever, saw him once in Amsterdam, a great voice he had.

To combine the terror and wonder of being alive, and make it work.
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Sad Slushy Sloppy Spiraling South Status of Shrinking Arctic

Unread postby Whitefang » Sun 30 Jun 2019, 14:21:38

https://www.theguardian.com/environment/sea-ice

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... we-know-it

The demise of an entire ocean is almost too enormous to grasp, but as the expedition sails deeper into the Arctic, the colossal processes of breakdown are increasingly evident.
The first fragment of ice appears off the starboard bow a few miles before the 79th parallel in the Fram strait, which lies between Greenland and the Norwegian archipelago of Svalbard. The solitary floe is soon followed by another, then another, then clusters, then swarms, then entire fields of white crazy paving that stretch to the horizon.
From deck level it is a stunning sight. But from high above, drones and helicopters capture the bigger, more alarming picture: a slow-motion blast pattern of frozen shrapnel radiating from the high Arctic southwards through this strait, which is the interchange of 80% of the water between the ice cap and the world’s oceans.

The oceanic shift was outlined in a landmark study published last year in Science, which found that the water density and temperature of the Fram strait and Barents Sea were increasingly like those of the Atlantic, while further east, Russia’s Laptev sea was starting to resemble what the Barents used to be. “The polar front is shifting,” the lead author, Dr Sigrid Lind, of the Institute of Marine Science and the University of Bergen, told the Guardian this year. “The Arctic as we know it is about to become history. It will go when stratification breaks down completely and the Atlantic takes over the whole region.”
Adding further to that enormous, existential reckoning could be other feedback loops that are now being investigated. Among them is the possible loss of the Arctic’s soothing influence on the northern seas. Bands of ice buffer the waves. Inside the floes, the ship’s passage is far smoother. Wagner speculates that when this calming barrier melts away, the swells will churn the ocean and bring warm water to the surface, which could further accelerate the fragmentation of the polar cap. It is yet another potentially grim area of study, but he views it – like other signs of the Arctic’s demise – with professional composure.
“Emotionally, I detach myself,” he says. “The Arctic is an object of study. It’s like a doctor observing a patient to see how sick they are.” He is reluctant to offer a prognosis without a longer-term study, but he says the physics make a recovery extremely unlikely.
“I have to hurry up or my science will become archaeology,” the 34-year-old jokes. “There will still be sea ice during the winter, but in the summer it will probably disappear. It won’t be the death of the Arctic, but will be the end of the Arctic as we know it.”


https://paulbeckwith.net/

I chat about the sorry slushy spiraling downward sloppy state of what is otherwise known as Arctic Sea-Ice, and the profound consequences to weather and climate that result from feedback’s causing Arctic temperature amplification to slowing wavier jet streams. I go into the nitty-gritty details of plots and maps that can easily be found by Googling “Arctic Sea Ice Graphs” and having fun by clicking things.
Feline “Shackleton the Explorer” puts on a brave faced cameo appearance as a prelude to my exceedingly profoundly disturbing chat on the ongoing European Heatwave.
Almost 500 million people in Europe are being subject to exceedingly high heatwave temperatures in June that exceed those dangerous conditions in the 2003 July/August heatwave that killed 70,000 Europeans (50,000 in France alone).
A very slow, very wavy, persistently stuck Jet Stream ridge lies over Europe; carrying exceedingly hot dry air from the Sahara Desert northward, humidifying it over the rapidly warming Mediterranean Sea, and
transporting this very hot humid air over vast regions of densely populated Europe, with its lack of air conditioning (2% in Germany; 5% in France).

A packet of air sitting over the Sahara Desert
gets rapidly warmed up by the relentless heat of the Sun in a cloudless sky, with single digit relative humidity (dry) conditions, and 50+ C temperatures.
Transported northward by the stuck jet stream ridge, it crosses the rapidly warming water surface of the Mediterranean Sea where it reaches relative humidities of 70 to 80%.
Saturated with water vapour, it continues northward guided under the jet stream ridge to cover vast areas of Europe with unbearable temperatures (reaching 45.9 C) and high humidities.


Second video from 11 min on, look at the sea ice concentrations early next month, all arctic islands ice free early july…...very likely new record low, maybe below a million which means an ice free arctic as considered by them scientists 8O
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 15:29:54

"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 01 Jul 2019, 19:46:17

Interesting article about 4°C temp change in Svarlbad.


https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... n-anywhere
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