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Arctic sea ice 2019

Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 21 Apr 2019, 17:14:18

dohboi wrote:World Economic Forum: The Arctic Has Entered an ‘Unprecedented State,’ Researchers Warn

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2019/04/ ... hers-warn/

If the economic people are worried, it is time for everyone to worry :-D
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 21 Apr 2019, 17:14:44

WEF - World Economic Forum - Davos

This is about as corporate/conservative/globalization/neoliberal economic as you can get.

Strong words.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 21 Apr 2019, 17:20:42

Dohboi,

I gloss the annual WEF Risk Analysis which has been upping climate change for some time. If this is very interesting to see them take such a conspicuous stance. The WEF is fairly representative of the 0.1% elite.

I see this as good news, not the changes, the awareness.

I’d like to see Trumps response.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 22 Apr 2019, 10:11:15

I think these folks are a bit smarter and more reality based than Trump. I don't think data are going to sway Trump and his ilk. His is a political position--what his base accepts, or has been convinced to accept, as reality. But I don't want to drag yet another thread into purely political speculation.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dissident » Mon 22 Apr 2019, 11:21:05

Newfie wrote:WEF - World Economic Forum - Davos

This is about as corporate/conservative/globalization/neoliberal economic as you can get.

Strong words.


They are interested in the opening of oil and gas extraction prospects. So it is not as pro-anthropogenic-warming as it looks.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 09:28:08

Melting permafrost in Arctic will have $70tn climate impact - study

Study shows how destabilised natural systems will worsen man-made problem


https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... pact-study

The release of methane and carbon dioxide from thawing permafrost will accelerate global warming and add up to $70tn (£54tn) to the world’s climate bill, according to the most advanced study yet of the economic consequences of a melting Arctic.

If nations fail to improve on their current Paris agreement commitments, this feedback mechanism combined with a loss of heat-deflecting white ice will cause a near 5% amplification of global warming and its associated costs, says the paper, which was published on Tuesday in Nature Communications.

The authors say their study is the first to calculate the economic impact of permafrost melt and reduced albedo – a measure of how much light that hits a surface is reflected without being absorbed – based on the most advanced computer models of what is likely to happen in the Arctic as temperatures rise. It shows how destabilised natural systems will worsen the problem caused by man-made emissions, making it more difficult and expensive to solve.

They assessed stocks of CO2 and methane trapped in the permafrost by using samples taken from a depth of three metres at multiple points across the Arctic. These were run through the world’s most advanced climate simulation software in the US and at the UK Met Office to predict how much gas will be released at different levels of warming. Even with supercomputers, the number crunching took weeks because the vast geography and complex climate interactions of the Arctic throw up multiple variables. The researchers then applied previous economic impact models to assess the likely costs.

Permafrost melt is the main concern. Greenhouse gases, which have been frozen below the soil for centuries, have already begun to escape at the current level of 1 degrees Celsius of global heating. So far the impact is small. Ten gigatonnes of CO2 have been released from the ice but this source of emissions will grow rapidly once temperatures rise beyond 1.5C.

On the current trajectory of at least 3C of warming by the end of the century, melting permafrost is expected to discharge 280 gigatonnes of carbon dioxide and 3 gigatonnes of methane, which has a climate effect that is 10 to 20 times stronger than CO2.

This would increase the global cost of destruction, adaptation and emissions reduction by $70tn between now and 2300. This is 10 times higher than the projected benefits from a melting Arctic, such as easier navigation for ships and access to minerals, says the paper.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 09:19:07

Well, it looks like global sea ice for both extent and area is now at an all-time load for this time of year. Just a decade ago, climate denialists/skeptics were hanging their hats on these numbers.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/home/global-sea-ice
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 04 May 2019, 05:12:23

just 1.2 percent of ice in the Arctic Ocean is older than four years.

Just 35 years ago, ice that was four years old or older made up nearly a third of all Arctic sea ice.

https://earther.gizmodo.com/the-last-of ... 1834510753
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 05 May 2019, 12:11:26

At times like these I hear the voice of Yule Brenner in my head, telling Charlton Heston that there was a mountain somewhere that spewed red mud into the Nile, making the river seem to turn to blood. By this I mean that the steepness of the curve I mentioned previously was ameliorated by a flattening out of it. The ice level is no longer in danger of the sort of figures it may have been had the previous steepness kept up. It is still below any year over the past five or so years, except for 2016, for this time of year, though. I suppose this is due to winds moving the ice around? It's hard to imagine new ice developing at such a rate as to cause that amelioration this time of year, but I guess that is possible. So you can look at the current picture and maintain a certain cynicism concerning climate change, just like Yule. I wonder how long that will keep up?
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby clif » Tue 07 May 2019, 02:06:41

Post by GoghGoner » Mon Apr 29, 2019 10:19 am
Well, it looks like global sea ice for both extent and area is now at an all-time load for this time of year. Just a decade ago, climate denialists/skeptics were hanging their hats on these numbers.


I don't know if they are aware of this, but our sea ice volume high's this year are where the lows were in 2008;

Not a good sign if you think global sea ice is important ......
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 14 May 2019, 11:41:53

Looking at the graph it appears that sea ice extent is now on a path to approximate what happened in 2018. The thing I'm wondering about is whether the many opening holes in sea ice concentration will cause the sort of historical increased steepness in the graph, depicting a more rapid loss of sea ice extent, on, or about, July 1, or if that may begin sooner. Because the current rate of decline would bring the graph closer to the historical norm if that doesn't happen until July 1 there is potential for relief this year, in that the low for the year may not be as bad as people have feared. On the other hand, if it begins that more rapid decline in mid June all bets are off. I don't have any idea what it will do, and am not making any predictions. I don't know what the historic sea ice concentration has looked like at this time of year, nor whether the overall picture matters as much as some regional distributions. I just see some possibilities looking at the graph and the depictions.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 15 May 2019, 09:16:30

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