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Arctic sea ice 2019

Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 06:14:40

jawagord wrote:
Newfie wrote:Elsewhere incame upon this facinating article. It clearly shows how some are trying to skew the data to prove AWG does not exist.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/02/24 ... point/amp/


I think the skewing is by Tamino. The data says this year is the most ice extent at this time of year in the last five years, that’s the data. Skewing the data is to say but but but it’s not as great as the cherry picked average of 1981-2010, when the true average would be all the data, 1979-2018 right?

Not quite. To search for the present trend you compare this years data to some previous data set that you accept as the normal condition. The satellite data starts at 1979 and many use 1979 to 2000 as the base. If you keep adding in each years data the trend you are looking for keeps moving the average in the direction it is moving making the trend seem smaller then it is.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby jawagord » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 10:14:41

vtsnowedin wrote:
jawagord wrote:
Newfie wrote:Elsewhere incame upon this facinating article. It clearly shows how some are trying to skew the data to prove AWG does not exist.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/02/24 ... point/amp/


I think the skewing is by Tamino. The data says this year is the most ice extent at this time of year in the last five years, that’s the data. Skewing the data is to say but but but it’s not as great as the cherry picked average of 1981-2010, when the true average would be all the data, 1979-2018 right?

Not quite. To search for the present trend you compare this years data to some previous data set that you accept as the normal condition. The satellite data starts at 1979 and many use 1979 to 2000 as the base. If you keep adding in each years data the trend you are looking for keeps moving the average in the direction it is moving making the trend seem smaller then it is.


Who would accept a 20 year period as the normal condition, when we have very well known 30 year, 60 year, 100 year cycles in our climate? 20 years is nothing in climate, using data like this has led people to make ridiculous claims like an ice free arctic that should be happening right about now if the outlandish forecasts of a decade ago were to be believed.
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ice ice baby

Unread postby Whitefang » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 11:00:14

Yeah, like Mr Vanilla we are ice junkies, cute whitey rap from tha 90's.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rog8ou-ZepE

Back to the real thing, Bering sea is melting, above zero temp readings so concentrations of the pack must be very low already, we should have had a solid pack by now, normaly the coldest part of the year.

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/w ... 539,71.507

The heat and moisture from the pacific is close to go over the top, nearly reaching Nordland, Russian arctic coast.

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png

https://paulbeckwith.net/


In this video, I mostly talk on how the coldest Arctic air volumes are gone. In fact 80% of the coldest air masses are no longer there. Not just cold air at the surface, but cold air all the way up.

As the entire Arctic continues warming at rapidly accelerating rates it is only a matter of time when sea-ice no longer forms; Greenland melting will cause rapid sea-level rise. Extreme weather severity, duration, and frequency will also skyrocket, and unprecedented weather events like snow in deserts will occur.
Ref: Indicators and Trends of Polar Cold Airmass: Kanno, Walsh, Abdillah, Yamaguchi and Iwasaki, Published 11 February 2019. Abstract:

Climate Disruption is Ubiquitous. Discuss PCAM, or Polar Cold Air Mass:
Tropics have expanded by 0.5 degrees in latitude per decade since 1970s:
Sahara Desert enlarged 10% since 1910.
US 100th Meridian has shifted 140 miles to East since 1980.
Tornado Alley moved 500 miles East since 1990.
Plant Hardiness Zones in US move North 13 miles per decade.
Permafrost Line in Canada moved 80 miles North in last 50 years.
Wheat Belt pushed poleward 160 miles per decade, and is rapidly moving out of Australia.
Thousands of Northern Hemisphere lakes are losing ice cover.
Climate of Cities is shifting up to 500 miles within one generation.
Arctic has lost 80% of coldest air in 6 decades.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 11:37:57

jawagord wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:
jawagord wrote:
Newfie wrote:Elsewhere incame upon this facinating article. It clearly shows how some are trying to skew the data to prove AWG does not exist.

https://tamino.wordpress.com/2019/02/24 ... point/amp/


I think the skewing is by Tamino. The data says this year is the most ice extent at this time of year in the last five years, that’s the data. Skewing the data is to say but but but it’s not as great as the cherry picked average of 1981-2010, when the true average would be all the data, 1979-2018 right?

Not quite. To search for the present trend you compare this years data to some previous data set that you accept as the normal condition. The satellite data starts at 1979 and many use 1979 to 2000 as the base. If you keep adding in each years data the trend you are looking for keeps moving the average in the direction it is moving making the trend seem smaller then it is.


Who would accept a 20 year period as the normal condition, when we have very well known 30 year, 60 year, 100 year cycles in our climate? 20 years is nothing in climate, using data like this has led people to make ridiculous claims like an ice free arctic that should be happening right about now if the outlandish forecasts of a decade ago were to be believed.


Except that we also have much longer experience in the Arctic and sub Arctic. Those graphs are based a singular data set. If we take the data over all then you find that the artic has been much more iced over for the last few hundred years than it is now.

Just look at the various attempts to find the NW and NE passage. That ships, and even personal yachts, have been able to transit that coast in recent years itself points to the tremendous loss of ice. Recall that the first man to cross the NW passage had his ship froze in coming from the West, and WALKED a long way East befor being rescued by a west bound ship.

There is no credible evidence that denies the loss of Arctic ice. To claim differently is in the realm of flat earthers.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 11:46:17

jawagord wrote:

Who would accept a 20 year period as the normal condition, when we have very well known 30 year, 60 year, 100 year cycles in our climate? 20 years is nothing in climate, using data like this has led people to make ridiculous claims like an ice free arctic that should be happening right about now if the outlandish forecasts of a decade ago were to be believed.

It is not that they want to use just twenty years it is that it is the best data they have. Prior to that you have weather station data but type and accuracy of collection vary a lot and some ship captains logs from both Naval and whaling industry ships but again not their main business so not always accurate and mostly limited to where they found the edge of ice that voyage. A lot of weather data was collected at railroad stations which also held a telegraph office which put them downtown with a heat island effect to say nothing of the steam and smoke coming off the trains. And when it comes to the true arctic there was literally no one living there that could read or write much before 1900 other then a summertime whaler.
So now you are looking at proxies like ice core and pond sediment or tree rings all of which have limitations to trust worthiness.
People like to think that human interference with the climate started with the industrial revolution around 1830 but in fact humans have been altering the land and climate from biblical times. Once rich farmlands of the middle east have been turned to desert by poor farming and irrigation practices and much of Europe was deforested keeping cities warm from Roman times through the middle ages.
Here in North America the native Americans routinely burned large tracts of forest every few years to increase game populations and ease the hunting for them.
But of course all that doesn't hold a candle to burning 85 million barrels of oil a day after the invention of the automobile. So it is a pretty good bet that burning that oil and coal is what is causing the arctic ice to decline.
:roll:
Thousands of Northern Hemisphere lakes are losing ice cover.

Can't prove that by me. Local lake had ice over two feet thick when I went ice fishing a week ago. Drove the truck right out to the shanty. Smelt were biting good. :)
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Whitefang » Fri 08 Mar 2019, 09:28:44

https://seaice.uni-bremen.de/data/amsr2 ... R2_nic.png

Sea ice on the pacific side is thin, concentrations in yellow 75% for a large area.
Sea ice on the Atlantic side spread out by Northern wind for weeks, large open spaces and drifted into warm Barentz sea waters.

We could very well be headed for a new record, if nor this year, def. the next.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 17:40:50


By Jeremy Hodges (Bloomberg) — The ice cover in the Bering Sea is at its lowest on record for this time of year after losing an area about the size of Montana at the height of winter.It’s the second consecutive year that the ice extent in the area has retreated at record pace. It shrank from 566,000 square kilometers (219,000 square miles) to 193,000 square kilometers between Jan. 27 and March 3, according to scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado.Low ice levels impact local communities who rely on the ice to hunt for walrus and other wildlife during the winter, and the unprecedented change could also impact feeding habits of Arctic animals. And while that’s alarming to environmentalists concerned about global warming, ship owners carrying liquefied natural gas and other goods see it as an opportunity.


https://gcaptain.com/bering-strait-sea- ... appearing/
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 18:01:28

Newfie wrote:

By Jeremy Hodges (Bloomberg) — The ice cover in the Bering Sea is at its lowest on record for this time of year after losing an area about the size of Montana at the height of winter.It’s the second consecutive year that the ice extent in the area has retreated at record pace. It shrank from 566,000 square kilometers (219,000 square miles) to 193,000 square kilometers between Jan. 27 and March 3, according to scientists at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado.Low ice levels impact local communities who rely on the ice to hunt for walrus and other wildlife during the winter, and the unprecedented change could also impact feeding habits of Arctic animals. And while that’s alarming to environmentalists concerned about global warming, ship owners carrying liquefied natural gas and other goods see it as an opportunity.


https://gcaptain.com/bering-strait-sea- ... appearing/

Nobody is shipping LNG through the Bering sea to anywhere in the winter. The article links to others about the Russians shipping LNG Last summer through the northeast sea route.
LNG exporters are taking advantage of the open waters, most notably around the Yamal LNG gas liquefaction plant in northern Siberia. The project owned by Total, Novatek and their Chinese partners has custom-built ARC 7 tankers rugged enough to cut through whatever ice remains in the area. That enables them to sail without help from icebreakers west to Europe year round and east to Asia during the summer months. In the coming years, more routes will open for ships to sail without an icebreaker.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 13 Mar 2019, 21:17:15

I think you misread that. Nobody said they were shipping in the middle of winter. They said that LNG shippers were viewing weak artic ice as an opportunity. You may have thought that implied winter shipping, it does not.

And here is a link to the origional article.

Climate Changed
In the Middle of Winter, Bering Strait Sea Ice Is Disappearing
Ice cover should be building, but instead it’s now at a record low for this time of year.


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... -of-winter


Thinner ice allows Russia's Novatek PJSC to transport LNG cargoes from its Yamal plant directly to Asia, the biggest consumer of the fuel, rather than sell or transfer them in western Europe.

“Every month of the year is tracking below average right now,” said Julienne Stroeve, Professor of Polar Observation and Modelling at University College London. “The decline in the Bering Sea is quite percipitious, we haven’t seen this before.”
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 01:56:48

The point of writing the article and to reposting it here is to imply that the ice is melting (Or the sky is falling if you prefer). They combine a fact that the Bering sea at present has lower then the historic average sea ice cover for this time of year with an unrelated fact from last summer about the North east passage knowing full well that many readers don't have the geographic knowledge to know that they are miles apart and that the Bering sea lies entirely south of the arctic circle and is not the water the LNG is being transported through. It also ignores the fact that the Bering sea ice cover is much more variable in it's ice cover being at the southern margin of the average ice pack and subject to severe winter storms some years.
It is a dishonest attempt at swaying the opinion of an uninformed public.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 07:54:06

VT,

The LNG originated in Yamal, Russia and is being tranported to China via the NE Passage and the Bearing Sea. So I don’t see how you can say the LNG is not being transported through the Bearing Sea.

Please point out the “unrelated fact from last summer”.

One of us is missing something.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 08:08:13

All the above article said was that the lack of ice got the attention of Novatek. Any lengthening if the ice navigation season opens markets in China. That means more demand, higher price.


What is truly fascinating is how deniers deny while the fossil fuel producers and shippers acknowledge the melting arctic and scramble to capitalize upon it.

Note: These quotes went from some AGW site, they are from within the fossil fuel industry.

Novatek doesn’t rule out that more LNG will stay in Europe this winter due to the high cost of transporting cargoes via the Suez Canal while sea ice closes the Northern Sea Route for the season, Gyetvay said. The company may consider swapping arrangements for Asian delivery, he said.

“Eight years ago many people were saying ‘I don’t understand where Yamal is and I don’t understand how you are going to be able to ship from that location to market successfully,’” Gyetvay said. “Yamal is a tremendous success not only for Novatek, but for Russia, and now provides the country with a brand-new platform for LNG, the fastest-growing segment of the gas market.”


https://world.cwclng.com/russia-secures ... tic-plant/

A new trade route for energy supplies is opening up north of the Arctic Circle as some of the warmest temperatures on record shrink ice caps that used to lock ships out of the area.

This year is likely to rank among the top 10 for the amount of sea ice melting in the Arctic Ocean after heat waves across the northern hemisphere this summer. While that’s alarming to environmentalists concerned about global warming, ship owners carrying liquefied natural gas and other goods see it as an opportunity. Their cargoes have traversed the region for the first time this year without icebreakers, shaving days off shipping times and unlocking supplies from difficult-to-reach fields in Siberia.


https://www.google.com/amp/s/amp.insura ... 499650.htm
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 08:20:52

Newfie wrote:VT,

The LNG originated in Yamal, Russia and is being tranported to China via the NE Passage and the Bearing Sea. So I don’t see how you can say the LNG is not being transported through the Bearing Sea.

Please point out the “unrelated fact from last summer”.

One of us is missing something.
Yes I was missing the fact that the arctic circle is a circle and the east end of the North East passage ends at the Bering strait. The unrelated fact is that the article is talking about present ice conditions in the winter in the Bering sea while the transport happens in summer.
Also it is not so much that there is less summer ice as it is the Russians have built LNG tankers the size of aircraft carriers with strong hulls which serve as their own ice breaker.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby evilgenius » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 11:01:12

When I look at the arctic ice this time of year I usually want to see how far below the average it is. This year I am alarmed about something alongside that, the slope of the graph which is charting ice loss over time. It is steeper this year for this time than it usually is, even in those years when alarming lows were eventually achieved. On http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/there is a tool for looking at the various years imposed over the current year. You can see, when you do that, how previous years have been flatter at this time of year than this year is. The only years which appear as steep occurred when the ice pack was within the normal range. Even though the eventual low for that year was below normal, the ice at this time of year was within the average range. I don't know if this means anything, there hasn't been enough time with the slope that steep to establish a real trend, but it isn't a good sign. The reason I posted this wasn't that I saw that, by the way. I was just looking at a post by Plantagenet on another thread, where he was talking about the unusually warm weather in Alaska this year. He said it is continuing, and that the snow is gone six weeks earlier than normal. He said, "next up is the ice." He may be right.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 11:27:43

If you add on the plots for the last ten years it looks like more of the same that we have seen lately not a further decrease.
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/char ... ice-graph/
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 11:33:21

vtsnowedin wrote:If you add on the plots for the last ten years it looks like more of the same that we have seen lately not a further decrease.
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/char ... ice-graph/


Look again.

The red line shows ice extent this year and it is far lower then the longterm trend. You can tell because the red line is lower then the other lines.

AND, the Arctic is in an amazing heat wave right now, so look for that red line to dive down even further, marking an even more dramatic decrease in sea ice extent.

Cheers!
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 11:49:33

vtsnowedin wrote:
Newfie wrote:VT,

The LNG originated in Yamal, Russia and is being tranported to China via the NE Passage and the Bearing Sea. So I don’t see how you can say the LNG is not being transported through the Bearing Sea.

Please point out the “unrelated fact from last summer”.

One of us is missing something.
Yes I was missing the fact that the arctic circle is a circle and the east end of the North East passage ends at the Bering strait. The unrelated fact is that the article is talking about present ice conditions in the winter in the Bering sea while the transport happens in summer.
Also it is not so much that there is less summer ice as it is the Russians have built LNG tankers the size of aircraft carriers with strong hulls which serve as their own ice breaker.


And they did build those ships BECAUSE the ice has thinned sufficiently to make their building possible. It’s Possible because the really hard multi year ice is gone. Huge difference.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby jawagord » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 15:11:07

Plantagenet wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:If you add on the plots for the last ten years it looks like more of the same that we have seen lately not a further decrease.
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/char ... ice-graph/


Look again.

The red line shows ice extent this year and it is far lower then the longterm trend. You can tell because the red line is lower then the other lines.

AND, the Arctic is in an amazing heat wave right now, so look for that red line to dive down even further, marking an even more dramatic decrease in sea ice extent.

Cheers!


Maybe you should move to Resolute?

Condition:
Light Snow
Temperature:
-20.2°C
Dew point:
-23.2°C
Humidity:
77%
Wind:
NNW 4 km/h
Wind Chill:
-24


https://weather.gc.ca/city/pages/nu-27_metric_e.html
Don't deny the peak!
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 31 Mar 2019, 15:24:39

Plantagenet wrote:
vtsnowedin wrote:If you add on the plots for the last ten years it looks like more of the same that we have seen lately not a further decrease.
https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/char ... ice-graph/


Look again.

The red line shows ice extent this year and it is far lower then the longterm trend. You can tell because the red line is lower then the other lines.

AND, the Arctic is in an amazing heat wave right now, so look for that red line to dive down even further, marking an even more dramatic decrease in sea ice extent.

Cheers!

Are you blind? The 2019 line is orange not red.
Now if you click on each year and read the number for day 89 of the year you get an average for the last five years of 14.368 vs this years 14.227 and if you look at the five years before that you get an average of 14.93.
That is a decrease but it is not dramatic and it is not sudden.
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Re: Arctic sea ice 2019

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sat 06 Apr 2019, 06:33:53

Wow. Temp spike and record low sea ice extent. This is still a runaway train.
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