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Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 17:15:09

Yoshua wrote:Are we post peak oil?


Obviously no.

Peak Oil will occur when hit the maximum rate of global oil production Global oil production is still increasing so we aren't at peak oil yet.

Cheers!
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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby marmico » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 17:58:37

EIA reports new world oil production record in September 2018 of 82.949 million barrels per day.

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... ec11_5.pdf

World oil production has increased by ~10 million barrels per day since peakoil.com founded.
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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby marmico » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 21:45:16

Good grief dimwit starr. Check your priors after 28000 posts.

The modern peak oil doomtards were Campbell/Laherrere* in 1998, when world oil production was 67 million barrels per day. ASPO Campbell is now an old man in dotage (like you) and Laherrere has increased his ultimate recovery from 1800 to 2500 gigabarrels for conventional oil. In any event, they projected that oil production would be 55 million barrels per day in 2020. They are dim stars.

* https://nature.berkeley.edu/er100/readi ... l_1998.pdf
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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 06 Jan 2019, 22:17:16

pstarr wrote:
marmico wrote:Good grief dimwit starr. Check your priors after 28000 posts.

The modern peak oil doomtards were Campbell/Laherrere* in 1998, when world oil production was 67 million barrels per day. ASPO Campbell is now an old man in dotage (like you) and Laherrere has increased his ultimate recovery from 1800 to 2500 gigabarrels for conventional oil. In any event, they projected that oil production would be 55 million barrels per day in 2020. They are dim stars.

* https://nature.berkeley.edu/er100/readi ... l_1998.pdf

blah blah blah blah f#ck campbell and your Underwhere. Screw your bad science.

The Planet Earth is not here to service your panties. Don't you get it, you moron? Things run out. You moron.

You and short calling people names because you have nothing but endless bad predictions to offer doesn't make you right. But thanks for playing. :roll:

Maybe if you are EVER actually right, proven by several years of oil shortages resulting in much higher prices -- THEN you'd have the right to call someone a moron. Maybe. But given all your endless bad calls, I don't see how. You make my house cat look smart -- at least it can predict when I'm about to feed it. :lol:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 00:26:59

Yoshua wrote:Everybody seems to have lost the thread. It's weird. What's going on? Are we post peak oil?


More than a few times now, yes.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 00:32:07

pstarr wrote:
marmico wrote:EIA reports new world oil production record in September 2018 of 82.949 million barrels per day.

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... ec11_5.pdf

World oil production has increased by ~10 million barrels per day since peakoil.com founded.

so what? I suppose that is supposed to mean that the world is not running out of oil?


The world was running out of oil before you were born. You don't appear worse off because of it, so why might that be the focus of your attention?

pstarr wrote:According to International Energy Association the world's known oil reserves are depleting 6.7% per year.


Declining perhaps. Not depleting. They aren't the same thing. Do you know the difference?

pstarr wrote: The only resources keeping production afloat is America's tight shale, which itself is about to go into steeper decline.


Can we see your analysis on American light tight oil to validate this statement? Because the EIA (you know, those folks with real live people with experience in the industry and whatnot) would seem to disagree. Do you have access to their proprietary data flowing in from US oil producers?

pstarr wrote: OPEC has peaked. North Slope has peaked. North Sea has peaked. GOM is peaking. Nothing is not peaking . . . except a few cowboys well in Americstan. And the ruskies. Big deal


OPEC has peaked before. The US has peaked before. Heck, the entire world has peaked before. None of them stopped it from happening again.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 00:38:26

marmico wrote:Good grief dimwit starr. Check your priors after 28000 posts.

The modern peak oil doomtards were Campbell/Laherrere* in 1998, when world oil production was 67 million barrels per day.


Research indicate that isn't the beginning of the modern peak oil age. Colin Campbell predicting global peak oil circa 1990 (in 1988 I believe) was. Him and Mike Lynch then spent the 1990's going back and forth a little. He recycled the same ideas and claims he was making in 1988 with Laherrere in 1998. Not sure why it caught on then, rather than a decade earlier. Much like Hubbert's 1938 claim of peak oil in the US, it is nearly completely ignored by those trying to build credibility for Campbell.

We are way past the point where he has any credibility on the topic though.

marmico wrote:ASPO Campbell is now an old man in dotage (like you) and Laherrere has increased his ultimate recovery from 1800 to 2500 gigabarrels for conventional oil. In any event, they projected that oil production would be 55 million barrels per day in 2020. They are dim stars.

* https://nature.berkeley.edu/er100/readi ... l_1998.pdf


It is still more than a little amusing to go back and look at how ludicrous those claims were, isn't it?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 00:41:17

pstarr wrote:
marmico wrote:Good grief dimwit starr. Check your priors after 28000 posts.

The modern peak oil doomtards were Campbell/Laherrere* in 1998, when world oil production was 67 million barrels per day. ASPO Campbell is now an old man in dotage (like you) and Laherrere has increased his ultimate recovery from 1800 to 2500 gigabarrels for conventional oil. In any event, they projected that oil production would be 55 million barrels per day in 2020. They are dim stars.

* https://nature.berkeley.edu/er100/readi ... l_1998.pdf

blah blah blah blah f#ck campbell and your Underwhere. Screw your bad science.


Campbell and Laherrere's bad science. Some folks, who think about this stuff, just noticed is all. You should try it sometime...the thinking stuff I mean.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 00:43:53

pstarr wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:You and short calling people names because you have nothing but endless bad predictions to offer doesn't make you right. But thanks for playing. :roll:

Endless bad predictions? You refer, I assume, to the bet I posted that has yet to be challenged.


You mean, accepted? Why would anyone challenge a bet? Did your compatriots ever pay up on their eroei derived oil price bet? Things were looking pretty bad for them even halfway through the year when I last stopped in. Let me guess, they welshed?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 11:22:30

AdamB wrote:
pstarr wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:You and short calling people names because you have nothing but endless bad predictions to offer doesn't make you right. But thanks for playing. :roll:

Endless bad predictions? You refer, I assume, to the bet I posted that has yet to be challenged.


You mean, accepted? Why would anyone challenge a bet? Did your compatriots ever pay up on their eroei derived oil price bet? Things were looking pretty bad for them even halfway through the year when I last stopped in. Let me guess, they welshed?


To be fair Onlooker negotiated a different payoff with Cog and has so far been honoring it.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 16:43:48

Adam - What continues to amuse me is the constant debate about the date global PO has been or will be reached. A rather insignificant spot on the calendar compared to the countless $trillions of tax revenue and millions of lives lost already as a result of the dynamics of oil production and consumption over many decades, Decades which all preceded whatever that "magical" GPO date might be. For some unexplained "logic" many folks believe the dynamics (and resultant horrors) of the future will be significantly different then what the world has already experienced in the past.
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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 19:59:16

Tanada wrote:
AdamB wrote:
pstarr wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:You and short calling people names because you have nothing but endless bad predictions to offer doesn't make you right. But thanks for playing. :roll:

Endless bad predictions? You refer, I assume, to the bet I posted that has yet to be challenged.


You mean, accepted? Why would anyone challenge a bet? Did your compatriots ever pay up on their eroei derived oil price bet? Things were looking pretty bad for them even halfway through the year when I last stopped in. Let me guess, they welshed?


To be fair Onlooker negotiated a different payoff with Cog and has so far been honoring it.


I was thinking about Short. Did he ever pay up?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 07 Jan 2019, 20:04:13

ROCKMAN wrote:Adam - What continues to amuse me is the constant debate about the date global PO has been or will be reached. A rather insignificant spot on the calendar compared to the countless $trillions of tax revenue and millions of lives lost already as a result of the dynamics of oil production and consumption over many decades, Decades which all preceded whatever that "magical" GPO date might be. For some unexplained "logic" many folks believe the dynamics (and resultant horrors) of the future will be significantly different then what the world has already experienced in the past.


Without a date, PO (and more importantly the hysterical consequences attached to it) gets no traction. The date is designed to show certainty on behalf of the claimant, no different than Shorty doing his low price doom dance. So the date is important to be taken seriously...and the beauty of that? Once reality demonstrates that the claimant didn't know what they were talking about, some folks are so gullible they'll jump right back on the bandwagon when the same idea gets recycled in a year or decade. Not a thought about asking, "Gee Mr/Mrs Claimant, how did you correct for the errors that caused you to get it wrong the LAST time?". Seems like a completely reasonable question, if the claimant never took the time to find out why they were wrong, and correct for it the next time, well...then it is just random can kicking.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 09 Jan 2019, 03:16:45

AdamB wrote:I was thinking about Short. Did he ever pay up?


My sig answers that question.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 11 Jan 2019, 17:05:49

Adam - If I get part of your drift: a PO date does make sense as a marketing device. Of course, the timing is critical. Advertising a weight program just before Thanksgiving is pissing away advertising dollars. Same with waving the PO red flag just as gasoline hits $1.72/gallon in my area of Houston. Or pitching climate warming as the next polar blast hits New England in the next few days.

Of course, in the unlikely event that the KSA significantly cuts oil exports and the price jumps back to $90/bbl we can once again get traction with PO rhetoric.
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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 11 Jan 2019, 20:02:43

ROCKMAN wrote:Adam - If I get part of your drift: a PO date does make sense as a marketing device. Of course, the timing is critical. Advertising a weight program just before Thanksgiving is pissing away advertising dollars. Same with waving the PO red flag just as gasoline hits $1.72/gallon in my area of Houston. Or pitching climate warming as the next polar blast hits New England in the next few days.

Of course, in the unlikely event that the KSA significantly cuts oil exports and the price jumps back to $90/bbl we can once again get traction with PO rhetoric.

It seems to me that the "peak oil is here soon, etc" crowd's FUD is centered around trying to sell apocalypse soon nonsense. As though suddenly, the remaining oil will be consumed very quickly, as soon as we've reached the halfway point.

Because to accept a slow decline scenario, the consequences are more like higher prices -- which will wake people up to the desirability of EV's. Not exactly stuff to make one want to run for the hills (so what fun is THAT)?

I'll take the idea of peak oil having been reached when we see about 5 years of global production declines, along with rising prices indicating it's not due to demand. I expect to see net decline in demand due to EV's before that happens.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Effects of Peak Oil - 2019 Edition

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 12 Jan 2019, 02:16:18

ROCKMAN wrote:A rather insignificant spot on the calendar compared to the countless $trillions of tax revenue and millions of lives lost already as a result of the dynamics of oil production


OMG. Here we go with your POD...again.

This site seems to be frequented only by those who hold onto a cultish theory with a religious level of zeal. POD is yours, which is basically Chris Martenson's Crash Course with the serial numbers filed off. (ETP is Short's. PStarr's is "demand dearth" and Ibon's is "overshoot predator. Have I missed anyone?)

You just slap the word "dynamic" in front of peak oil and then proceed to blame everything down to a hangnail on peak oil. Sorry. Doesn't fly.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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