KaiserJeep wrote:To hearken back to the original thread topic, recall that one aspect of Hubbert's theory was that the production peak would occur when HALF the resouce was consumed:
...and half remained to be pumped/refined/consumed. Well, the first half of that curve started in the 2nd half of the 19th century, and 150-odd years later, we MAY hit the peak soon, possibly this year.
Oil will remain available for decades, at steadily higher prices. Probably NOT another 150 years, since EROEI also plays a part here. Say we go way pessimistic and say the second half of the production curve is 1/3rd shorter than the first, and we only have a century of oil left.
That is pretty damned serious for our great great grandkids. But it doesn't seem that serious for us.
YES, I get it. We will be increasingly uncomfortable as time passes and the value of money dilutes. IOW, BAU, piled higher and deeper. My argument still is we are in a Long Emergency scenario, not a peak oil crash scenario.
KaiserJeep wrote:To hearken back to the original thread topic, recall that one aspect of Hubbert's theory was that the production peak would occur when HALF the resouce was consumed:
Hubbert wrote:A more effective means (Hubbert, 1950a, 1950b) of extrapolating such growth curves is afforded by two basic considerations: (l) For any production curve of a finite resource of fixed amount, two points on the curve are known at the outset, namely that at t = 0 and again at t = ∞. The production rate will be zero when the reference time is zero, and the rate will again be zero when the resource is exhausted; that is to say, in the production of any resource of fixed magnitude, the production rate must begin at zero, and then after passing through one or several maxima, it must decline again to zero.
GHung wrote:
Pops wrote:Hubbert.... the linearization that tried to predict the peak. It hasn't worked out so well ....
Plantagenet wrote:
Hubbert knew there was a lot of unconventional oil out there, but he never even dreamed of the huge amounts of oil that could be produced economically from tight oil shale in the USA. .....
....... For a while some folks were trying to rationalize away TOS oil production as some kind of financial bubble that would pop when the easy credit ran out, but we're 12 years into the TOS shale boom in the US, and its still going and the EIA predicts TOS production won't peak until ca. 2040-50.
KaiserJeep wrote:My own bet: Nothing ever goes "pop".
Cog wrote:Say the word Ibon. I'm sure you can. Illegal aliens. The aren't immigrants no matter how loud you No borders, no walls, no usa at all, people want it.
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