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Predictions 2019

For discussions of events and conditions not necessarily related to Peak Oil.

Predictions 2019

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 09 Dec 2018, 08:37:04

Thread to contribute predictions of a global nature for 2019
Mine is the the EU will dissolve amid political and economic unrest and renewed nationalism and anti immigration sentiment
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 09 Dec 2018, 13:21:31

Brexit will go ahead, but Ireland will lose a lot of the single market integration to avoid the hard border that would otherwise be imposed by a clean break Brexit.
The EU will continue for a few more years yet, maybe morphing back to the original EEC model or completely breaking up in the next ten years.
The Chinese empire building continues apace, with consolidation in the south China sea which is grudgingly accepted by neighbours to avoid unfavourable trade with China.

More African countries will find themselves on the hook for binding trade & debt deals that effectively give China a say in the internal politics of those countries (we're already seeing that now).

Investment in future oil exploration is cutback as EV's start to make a real dent in oil consumption, resulting in a period of glut followed by shortages three or four years down the line as new fields are not developed and expensive fields are shut in.

Car buyers will have a dilemma, either go EV ASAP or have a couple of years of cheaper motoring in an ICE vehicle, those who can't affors new will almost certainly go the second option.
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 09 Dec 2018, 13:44:12

BAU will continue, as per usual, overall. Many Cassandras will continue to incorrectly call for rapid "collapse".

The major stock markets will be volatile at times, but there will be no "collapse" in reality, although the Cassandras tend to call normal pullbacks "collapse" to spread FUD.

We may well enter a global recession. If we do, the Cassandras will proclaim collapse is here, is imminent, etc. -- but it will just be a recession, same as it ever was. (I say "may" because unlike most, I'm honest enough with myself to fully admit I don't know how to time such things. But 10 years is a long time not to have one, and there are plenty of signs for the potential.)

EV's will continue to sell more; the market growing rapidly in percentage terms. However, the total supply will still be TINY (well under 5% pf the global car market), so people predicting a rapid take-over of EV's need to relax. The sheer scale of the global market for cars is way too big to have it happen rapidly. Also, while getting cheaper over time, costs and convenience and DEMONSTRATED long term reliability have a long ways to go before the average middle class new car buyer is solidly convinced EV's are the right choice. HEV's will be accepted en masse before BEV's, both due to cost and perceived risk, vs. the obvious benefits of higher MPG.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby Cog » Sun 09 Dec 2018, 13:47:41

Stock market will set a new high in 2019.
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby careinke » Sun 09 Dec 2018, 15:58:15

1. Trump will be impeached, but not convicted of anything.
2. The Muller investigation will not be finished.
3. Trust of the media will fall even more.
4. Civil unrest will rise to levels not seen since the 60's
5. Large numbers of Dims will develop PTSD.
6. At least one attempt will be made to assassinate President Trump.
7. The market will remain very volatile wiping out numerous IRAs and other retirement savings due to panic.
8. 5G will revolutionize the internet.
9. Climate change will continue to accelerate.
10. Outcast-searcher will correctly use the term Cassandra.
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 09 Dec 2018, 16:08:20

The price of oil both Brent and WTI will be greater on December 31, 2019 than January 1, 2019.
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby Pops » Sun 09 Dec 2018, 18:15:00

Bad predictions currently are frankly too bad to contemplate so my hope is the biggest happening looking back will be the attack on liberal democracy and resurgence of tribalism is somehow halted or at least slowed

We see fewer "tanks in the streets" than in the past— because today's dictators swaddle themselves in the trappings of democracy then they slowly bleed it with a thousand tiny cuts.

The other big push factor we have been talking about since '04—overpopulation and the threat the rich world will feel from the poor, even without energy constraints.

Ironically, the end of the cold war left the world without sides and to their own devices. US foreign policy is a deliberate thumb in the eye of the world – the US UN Ambassador is a Fox news anchor. lol

The "coming out" of China from it's self imposed isolation has put it in direct competition with the US. Historically the changing of top dog position does not come peacefully. I won't make a prediction here because it is just too skeery.

This right here, social media, will be either catalyst or antidote to the bad ending it feels like is coming. My best hope is that we've seen the worst that unlimited speech can do and will learn and mature in our ability to discern fact from fiction from trolling from corporate propaganda. The web has inundated us with information, and combined knowledge is far beyond our ability to investigate most any claim let alone every claim. Consequently we are bombarded by profit motivated and simple ideological propaganda constantly. The tobacco companies may be the modern originators of doubt sowing but fossil fuel company funded climate change denialists learned, so did anti-vaxers and finally politicians.The tactic is undermine confidence in authorities and promote cynicism so rather than informed decisions we rely solely on our tribal authority

Intentional anti-intellectualism and promoted cynicism has brought us back to our human genetic default, tribalism. Only now in modern society it is your tribe over whatever expert, evidence, institution—to the point you are so completely blinkered you believe no one but your anointed leader. If leaders then are not reliant on at least minimal consensus but rather on the fealty of a captive base, there is no need for democracy, global institutions, cooperation and trade. Putting the world right where it was 100 years ago, except with nukes.

2 Minutes 'Til
In 2017, world leaders failed to respond effectively
to the looming threats of nuclear war and climate
change, making the world security situation
more dangerous than it was a year ago—and as
dangerous as it has been since World War II.

Image



P.S. I gave up making predictions
.
Last edited by Pops on Sun 09 Dec 2018, 18:55:46, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby mmasters » Sun 09 Dec 2018, 18:21:05

Continued bull market.
Continued media circus.
Soros and/or Bader Ginsburg kick the bucket.
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 09 Dec 2018, 18:34:10

This is not strictly a prediction but more like an observation. The unraveling of the overshoot characterists of our species is already well underway. We are dismantling the web of life and the support life systems of this planet. And to boot we make show gestures of attempting to deal with our predicament as a species. In fairness, this is because in my opinion, they're is not much we can truly do now to solve our big problems. We lost control of our population and we did not in a timely manner disengage from FF as our main energy source. So, now the momentum of the dynamics we have unleashed will be decisive. Climate change, our huge population like lotusts wiping out and depleting resources especially nonrenewable ones and our pervasive contamination of the Earth are some of these dynamics. We are like the Wily Coyote falling off the cliff but not truly yet aware of the final result. So to stay somewhat on topic, I think we have about 2 more years of BAU, before earth shaking events really set in. As Ibon, as said the consequences will be the only thing that can alleviate our situation.
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 09 Dec 2018, 19:39:56

careinke wrote:10. Outcast-searcher will correctly use the term Cassandra.


So now you're the grammar police too. O-TAY.

The Cassandra metaphor is applied by some psychologists to individuals who experience physical and emotional suffering as a result of distressing personal perceptions, and who are disbelieved when they attempt to share the cause of their suffering with others.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra_(metaphor)

If they were right, re their short term predictions, a reasonable percentage of the time, I'd be a lot more sympathetic, by the way.
Last edited by Tanada on Sun 09 Dec 2018, 22:36:49, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken quote
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sun 09 Dec 2018, 20:01:08

Peak oil. Every year that goes by means one year closer to the peak. 2019 seems like a good year for it. Here is why:

1) ZIRP interest rates are long gone, the fed fund rate is back up to 2008 levels.
2) Shale has very high decline rates and the Red Queen takes over
3) The global economy may be sputtering, oil prices are too low for the moment to spur much shale drilling.
4) Oil were too low from 2015-2017. There was a lack of global investment and that will start affecting most IOCs this year.
5) Geopolitics have been supportive of producers except for Iran as of late. That worm could turn easily.
5) Because we were wrong every other year. It is time to be right.
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 09 Dec 2018, 21:41:25

No real change where the vast majority will continue to follow stories made by others. Very few will live by a creed of their own making.
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 09 Dec 2018, 23:12:44

The planet will continue to warm and 2019 will be another year of record and near record global temps.

Oil and fossil fuel consumption will hit new record highs.

CO2 emissions will continue to grow, and CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere will reach all time highs.

Summer heat waves and droughts will hit the western US again, and immense forest fires will incinerate more huge areas in California, Oregon, Washington, western Canada and Alaska. Forest Fire smoke will cover much of the western US again during the summer.

Similar heat waves and droughts and killer forest fires will hit northern Europe, Siberia, Australia and other areas around the globe.

Trump will say climate change isn't real and do nothing.

The Ds will say climate change is real and do nothing.

Cheers!
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby careinke » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 01:06:57

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
careinke wrote:10. Outcast-searcher will correctly use the term Cassandra.


So now you're the grammar police too. O-TAY.

The Cassandra metaphor is applied by some psychologists to individuals who experience physical and emotional suffering as a result of distressing personal perceptions, and who are disbelieved when they attempt to share the cause of their suffering with others.


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cassandra_(metaphor)

If they were right, re their short term predictions, a reasonable percentage of the time, I'd be a lot more sympathetic, by the way.


OK in the spirit of Christmas I'll concede. I was refering to the traditional definition of Cassandra, where she always told the truth but no one would believe her.

So, I want to change my number ten to:

10. The outdated, 150 year old, government education system will begin to collapse in on itself. In five years it will be gone and education will be universal and tailored individually to the students own interests and passions. Oh I forgot, the government (tax payer) will not be paying for it.
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby Rod_Cloutier » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 12:19:11

The Mandela effect will continue to grow as realities merge and nothing in our about our society will make any sense at all anymore to anyone.

https://youtu.be/_5Ko61p_cPs?t=27

Just in the last few weeks; there were now 14 presidents prior to George Washington, Bar & Grill labels for restaurants are now reversed, Coca a cola life existed, Bud lite is now spelled Bud light, Rainbow grapes exist, blue, pink and red X-mas trees exist, Ford mustang's always were 4 door cars, Jesus was a brick mason not a carpenter, stops signs were all yellow prior to 1954, the great pyramid of Egypt is no longer the largest pyramid, blue lava exists, Gilligan has blue pants and a tan hat, instead of white pants and a white hat- the skippers hat is now black instead of white, and many more things too bizarre to be real.
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 13:51:04

Stop signs were always yellow before 1954, colored Christmas trees have been around since the 1960's, the skipper always wore a submariners black hat, and there were a number of Presidents of the Continental Congress before George Washington, but they were under the Articles of Confederation, each served two years. If your school had done a proper job teaching history half of these so called effects would be recognized for what they are, knowledge gaps.
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby Cog » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 16:19:39

Dolly did have braces though. Regardless of how the current film shows it.
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 17:56:19

If you check out what is happening in Europe, seems my prediction is looking good haha.
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Re: Predictions 2019

Unread postby Subjectivist » Tue 11 Dec 2018, 06:53:44

My prediction is China will keep adding more private cars and increasing oil imports through the new year just as they have very year for the last two decades.
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