Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The time .... has arrived.

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Sat 25 May 2019, 21:55:59

I just found a chart of the 5-year/3-month spread on FRED:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=n5OI

You have to zoom in really close with the slider thing below the chart.

It looks like the spread did go barely positive for 3 days from April 16-18. But I mean just barely. Not sure if that's enough for Mr Harvey's observation or not. Even if it does, it just postpones the watch date from mid-June to mid-July.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9562
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Sun 26 May 2019, 05:52:51

Campbell employs four horsemen to forecast recessions.

https://www.fuqua.duke.edu/duke-fuqua-i ... curve-2019

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ucy3Sqh ... 1558865266

The Conference Board employs ten horsemen. I will flip to the recession camp when the LEI turns down.
marmico
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 979
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Fri 14 Jun 2019, 17:54:24

Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9562
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Thu 20 Jun 2019, 09:46:52

The Conference Board LEI was flat in May 2019.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf

The time....has not arrived.
marmico
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 979
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby copious.abundance » Wed 03 Jul 2019, 15:34:56

Housing Market Signals Coming Recession
Forecasts for global economic growth for 2019 and 2020 have been shaved from last year’s 3.6% growth rate to 3.3% in 2019. That estimate came from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook published in April and may prove to be too optimistic.

In a report published last week by William Emmons, lead economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Center for Household Stability, warns that the housing signals are strengthening for a recession later this year or in the first half of next year.

A slowdown in the housing market has preceded every U.S. recession since World War II, says Emmons, and there are four indicators to keep an eye on: falling 30-year fixed mortgage rates, sales of existing homes, real (inflation-adjusted) home prices and the contribution of residential investment to growth of U.S. gross domestic product.

Mortgage loan interest rates that fall from their most recent cyclical peak have preceded each of the three most recent U.S. recessions by four to seven quarters. Emmons includes the following graph showing interest rate movements around the recessions of the early 1990s, 2001 and 2008. Precedent indicates the beginning of the next recession in the fourth quarter of this year.
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
User avatar
copious.abundance
Fission
Fission
 
Posts: 9562
Joined: Wed 26 Mar 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Cornucopia

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Thu 18 Jul 2019, 10:21:18

The Conference Board LEI declined in June 2019. No recognizable peak in the Index yet.

https://www.conference-board.org/pdf_fr ... 202019.pdf

The time....has not arrived.
marmico
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 979
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby EdwinSm » Fri 19 Jul 2019, 00:37:16

Thanks for posting that report. Both indicators look close to zero but are positive.

Interestingly there are some differences from the 2008 recession, where the leading indicator dipped about a year and a half before the coincident indicator, whereas for the last couple of months they are both turning slightly down at the same rate. This means that the leading indicator is at this time not giving any advanced warning --- this just could be random movement for a couple of months within statistical norms, as in the percentage change chart for 2000 and 2005.
EdwinSm
Coal
Coal
 
Posts: 488
Joined: Thu 07 Jun 2012, 03:23:59

Re: The time .... has arrived.

Unread postby marmico » Fri 19 Jul 2019, 05:40:51

marmico
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 979
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Previous

Return to Economics & Finance

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 13 guests