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President Trump's 2019-2020 predictions

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby Cog » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 12:25:49

I was a bit afraid the Dems would learn their lesson from 2016 but I'm gratified they have not.

I'll sell you a clue ghung. If you don't want the strawman of accusing Trump of being a Nazi then don't bring up Hitler in reference to Trump. You own it my friend. LOL

If ghung is an example of lessons learned in 2016 about accusations of racism, nazism, and the Klan, Trump will walk all over the left in 2020.
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby GHung » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 12:41:51

Cog wrote:I was a bit afraid the Dems would learn their lesson from 2016 but I'm gratified they have not.

I'll sell you a clue ghung. If you don't want the strawman of accusing Trump of being a Nazi then don't bring up Hitler in reference to Trump. You own it my friend. LOL

If ghung is an example of lessons learned in 2016 about accusations of racism, nazism, and the Klan, Trump will walk all over the left in 2020.


I. Just. Don't. Like. Liars. That would be you. You KNOW I was pointing out that some terrible people have risen to power by popular (or not-so-popular) support, and corrupted that point to fit into your need to hold corrupted discussions. In the end, it is people like you that allow such corruption to rise to power. Anyway, there's a certain satisfaction that comes from knowing you are stuck with yourself.

This is why we will fail as a species.
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby Cog » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 13:45:19

You could have pointed out Hugo Chavez who rose to power. He was popularly elected. He was horrible. But you wouldn't want to be critical of a communist would you?

Spare me your selective outrage. It makes you looks like a fool.
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby mmasters » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 14:35:23

The Dems aren't smart enough to beat Trump. They keep going further left to Socialism than to the middle which is where they need to be to have any chance of beating Trump.

I predict we will see things we've never before seen with the economy and trade this next year. Things will only get better. The price of oil is coming down, that is a good sign for the next few years. A lot of financial messes, excess and wasted money are getting cleaned up and things are getting streamlined.

The media has exposed itself as a fraud to many of the people and I think we will see that derailment continue until Trump wins his second term. Perhaps then they will accept the reality that they are simply a bunch of losers and fall in line.

As for me I'm waiting for Trump to go after academia. That will be worth seeing but that is probably a few years off.
Last edited by mmasters on Thu 15 Nov 2018, 14:50:06, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 14:48:42

GHung wrote:
O_S said; "I'm no Trump fan, but name calling isn't exactly a credible prediction, or way to make judgements.


I wasn't making a prediction, and what you call a "judgement" is merely me making a sane assessment of the President's mental condition and personality. But rather than rationalize our positions, try a simple experiment. Pretend you knew nothing about Trump; who he is, his age, his position, his past. Just some anonymous person out there. Then go to http://www.trumptwitterarchive.com/ and start reading.

And comparing Trump to Jimmy Carter, or any other President, for the sake of this discussion, is useless; an attempt to deflect. This thread isn't about them, and who they were has absolutely no bearing on Trump going forward. Anyway, your President is becoming increasingly isolated and the Executive branch is clearly in chaos. Maybe you should focus on that rather than trying to normalize this President's behavior.

Well, since this is America, you're certainly welcome to all your opinions. My opinion is that you're wrong. It's perfectly reasonable to compare different presidents. For heaven's sake, historians, pundits, political experts, etc. do it ALL THE TIME. Do you live under a rock?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 15:01:04

mmasters wrote: The price of oil is coming down, that is a good sign for the next few years.

1). You have no idea what oil prices will be over time. (Neither does anyone else). The oil market is volatile. A short term move is just that.

2). Or, the price of oil is coming down, part of which is due to revised downward estimates on global demand. Maybe this means a global recession is in the offing. (I don't know -- I'm just pointing out that short term price data, even on critical commodities like crude oil, can be interpreted in many different ways, by reasonable adults.)

3). If oil prices come way down over time, that is positive for the global economy, all things being equal, but it doesn't guarantee some kind of booming economy. It didn't in 2014 to 2016 -- the economy was very decent (despite all the noise from the Cassandras re doom), but not great. The US stock market was good, but has been generally good until spring 2018 -- a roughly 9 year run. We don't know yet how to put the current correction in context -- maybe a normal correction, maybe the start of a bear market. That can only be known in hindsight.

...

I'm NOT trying to pick on you or pick a fight. This is about the principle.

I'm just pointing out that looking at one economic number, especially a highly volatile number, in isolation, and claiming it means "X" is highly unreliable. And economists, who SHOULD know better, do it all the time. (OTOH, they're often paid to, because people think there's value in economic predictions***, so there's that).

*** BTW, I realize there is value in looking at some economic numbers. In a stable economy, for example, inflation in years X is highly correlated with inflation going forward. So inflation gauges are useful in such economies. In unstable/developing economies, this is far less reliable. Growth rates in stable economies is another example of a useful economic statistic for making predictions.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby GHung » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 16:34:24

Cog wrote:You could have pointed out Hugo Chavez who rose to power. He was popularly elected. He was horrible. But you wouldn't want to be critical of a communist would you?

Spare me your selective outrage. It makes you looks like a fool.


At least Chavez, Hitler, Mussolini, etc. didn't go on global TV and tell me I need an ID to buy cereal. Please spare me your defenses of the clearly insane. I Makes you look (proves you are) insane.

Again, this thread is about Trump. That people keep trying to divert it elsewhere (including onto me) proves they have no case for his defense..
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 17:18:42

The problem with attacking Trump is you then instantly need to do the comparison. In a vacuum Trump is an abysmal person. Comparatively to the alternative? Not much difference, maybe half a point up.

So who are the Ds gonna run in 2020? Hopefully someone who is soooo much better.
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby GHung » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 17:59:56

Newfie wrote:The problem with attacking Trump is you then instantly need to do the comparison. In a vacuum Trump is an abysmal person. Comparatively to the alternative? Not much difference, maybe half a point up.

So who are the Ds gonna run in 2020? Hopefully someone who is soooo much better.


"The problem with attacking Trump is you then instantly need to do the comparison."

Why? I think that's another cop out. If a dog bites you for no reason, do you have to make a comparison to other dogs to say he's a bad dog to be avoided? If a hot object burns you do you have to compare its temperature to other objects to know not to touch it again? If someone clearly lies to you, do you instantly have to compare them to other liars to know that person is a liar? If a person constantly mistreats other people, is it so hard to determine that is a mean, bullying person? Why TF would I compare that person to other bullies? Does that make him more or less of a bully??

I simply have a different world view than you guys. Hard to grok such irrationalism and obtuse thinking.

Anyway, my new 860 Pro just arrived. Time to go give this OS a new home; do something that makes sense.
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Thu 15 Nov 2018, 18:45:42

Plantagenet wrote:My own prediction is that we will enter a world recession sometime next year. The stock market sell-off around the world probably signals a recession is coming in 6-8 months. The US economy will also go into recession, and Trump and the Rs will be blamed. The Ds will sweep to a glorious victory in 2020, taking both houses and the presidency, and President Hillary will wear a purple pantsuit with green velour pinstripes highlighted with a modest and small but very sparkly tiara at her inauguration in 2021.

Cheers!

What a nightmare.!!
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 16 Nov 2018, 05:24:44

GHung,

Why indeed?

Because griping does nothing to cure the situation. What is your alternative? Who is the D candidate for 2020 who will fix this mess?

Or better, what is being done to fix the stupid two party dog fight system we have? What’s been done to forestall a repeat of 2016?

And most of all, why are we letting this political system steal all the air time from the real important issues that are not being discussed?

It’s verybPC tonattack Trump, as if he is the single problem with the world. It’s just a distraction so the magicians can have oltheir way with us. And we fall for it every time.
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 16 Nov 2018, 06:26:03

Newfie wrote:
Or better, what is being done to fix the stupid two party dog fight system we have? What’s been done to forestall a repeat of 2016?


Nothing until public sentiment shifts away from divisive politics and chooses more centrist and unifying politicians.

And most of all, why are we letting this political system steal all the air time from the real important issues that are not being discussed?


Because most are bored with their lives and soft and uneducated with unfulfilled social lives and they direct their rage and frustration toward politics because this is easier than actually confronting real issues.

It’s very PC to attack Trump, as if he is the single problem with the world. It’s just a distraction so the magicians can have their way with us. And we fall for it every time.


This is exactly what Trump wants. He is the provocateur. He is the master of ceremony in divisiveness. When we hate him or love him it makes no difference to him as long as he remains on center stage.

What will change this dynamic? Within the system there is nothing that will change. The public is equally culpable as the politicians. Change in this dynamic comes from outside the system, in events and consequences that will act as a force to pull toward unity away from divisiveness.

Trump is a piece of stinking dog shit. He let's it all out there. Previous politicians had a veneer of frosting over the dog turd so that it looked and smelled ok but was just hiding the turd inside. That is the only really useful thing Trump has done, exposing the truth that currently the political system is made up of a bunch of dog turds for all to see. Trump is not without merit in this regard.
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 16 Nov 2018, 09:03:21

Much truth there Ibon.
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby GHung » Fri 16 Nov 2018, 10:55:04

Meh,,,, I don't obsess over Trump. Won't give him that much power over me. Then, again, it doesn't hurt to send out bad mojo over the state of our current executive branch. These people need to be held accountable, and Joe 6-Pack needs to be reminded that not everyone thinks this new normal is OK.
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 16 Nov 2018, 13:50:30

GHung wrote:Meh,,,, I don't obsess over Trump. Won't give him that much power over me. Then, again, it doesn't hurt to send out bad mojo over the state of our current executive branch. These people need to be held accountable, and Joe 6-Pack needs to be reminded that not everyone thinks this new normal is OK.


I agree also with this. Not everyone who is addressing the corruption rampant with the Trump administration is a partisan ideologue from the left. It is a specific strategy of Trump and his followers to label any critique as an obsessed liberal. Which is plane bullshit.

Accountability is important regardless of how corrupt the other side might also be. This is something I have also expressed. It is not a reason to excuse Trump.

I think it comes down to saving your criticism to when it is effective instead of allowing it to be used as part of the whole partisan division. The left did overly obsess and played played right into Trumps divisive strategy almost like Pavlov's salivating dogs.

There are times that silence is better and buying your time and allowing the incompetence to implode from within instead of constantly being reactionary.
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 16 Nov 2018, 14:19:42

Responding to specific actions or lack thereof is highly appropriate criticism.

For example that the NHSTA has recognized CC as a problem that can not be addressed with half measures is good.

That Trump does not understand and makes poor uninformed comments about climate change deserves deep criticism.
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 17 Nov 2018, 11:13:06

One thing's for sure, it's amazing what people will consider "normal."
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 12:13:26

I can't help but wonder if something is about to happen in the Ukraine that will change things. In the description of the situation surrounding the seized Ukrainian vessels there was talk of a tanker under the bridge. The description made it sound like it was an obstacle that could be gotten around. When I saw a picture of it I realized that the Russians mean business. There was no way round it. The Ukrainians will have to get vessels out from their ports, and the Russians know that. They are setting up a situation where the Ukrainians may fire first. They must be prepared for that, I assume. I have to also assume they are ready to fire back. Has Trump gone and made Putin feel that he can knock over the Eastern Ukraine without repercussion from the US? If that happened would Trump come out looking like the sort of bully who will tear gas and separate vulnerable immigrant children, but doesn't have what it takes to stand up to a real threat? I doubt he would sit around allowing the public to come to those sorts of thoughts. But what would be do to make himself look tough enough? Of course, nothing may come of the events in the Ukraine. The tanker may go away before the next loaded cargo vessel leaves port.
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby Cog » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 18:04:49

Were it my power, I would erect crosses every one hundred meters from the Pacific Ocean for fifty kilometers eastward. The next time this five thousand member group of invaders tried to breach the border, I would let them in and detain them all. Then I would crucify every single one of them and let their bodies rot on those crosses as a warning to others.

But maybe I'm just a bit ahead of my time.
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Re: Trump's next two yeara predictions

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 27 Nov 2018, 18:40:20

Cog wrote:Were it my power, I would erect crosses every one hundred meters from the Pacific Ocean for fifty kilometers eastward. The next time this five thousand member group of invaders tried to breach the border, I would let them in and detain them all. Then I would crucify every single one of them and let their bodies rot on those crosses as a warning to others.

But maybe I'm just a bit ahead of my time.
While I'm usually on your side or every argument/ discussion here that goes way too far. You should consider professional help.
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