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Here's a scary video!

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

Here's a scary video!

Unread postby Revi » Wed 24 Oct 2018, 09:06:07

Ready for Halloween? Here's a scary video.

The scary part is at the end. Hint: 5-7% decline rate for the foreseeable future!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7KfVJBNX2U4
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Re: Here's a scary video!

Unread postby Revi » Wed 24 Oct 2018, 10:15:39

It's a video by HSBC, which is done in a very businesslike manner. The implications are what's frightening. Hint: It's the name of this webpage...
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Re: Here's a scary video!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 24 Oct 2018, 21:48:36

I listened to the whole thing, which sounds like it's a couple of years old, given the phrase early on "sometime next year in 2017".

Why should we be scared again? A long term estimate for oil prices at $75 (which we've been at recently) is a big deal, how?

Again, we're not at peak if the annual production keeps increasing. Wells peak, and then decline. This is nothing new.

The Cassandras have been claiming that constant 7% declines will decimate the global economy, etc. for at least a decade. So how is a forecast of potential 5 to 7% decline rates something to get all wound up about?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Here's a scary video!

Unread postby Cog » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 05:06:29

Depletion models were all the rage on the oil drum 10 years ago. Until reality intruded into their doom chamber.
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Re: Here's a scary video!

Unread postby Revi » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 08:47:01

Okay. We'll see. They aren't from the Oil Drum or any of those other sites. HSBC is a bank. Here in the Northeast it's called Key Bank. I don't think they have an agenda. Of course, they may be wrong also...
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Re: Here's a scary video!

Unread postby GHung » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 08:56:15

Cog wrote:Depletion models were all the rage on the oil drum 10 years ago. Until reality intruded into their doom chamber.


Yes. Thank you Coggo. Consuming finite resources at unprecedented rates does not deplete them. It's magic!
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Re: Here's a scary video!

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 09:05:01

GHung wrote:
Cog wrote:Depletion models were all the rage on the oil drum 10 years ago. Until reality intruded into their doom chamber.


Yes. Thank you Coggo. Consuming finite resources at unprecedented rates does not deplete them. It's magic!

And that is also why they have to get the oil from deep water and remote areas. And frack it out of rocks. And why Discoveries have dwindled to meager levels because SO MUCH oil is out there :lol: :lol: :razz:
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Re: Here's a scary video!

Unread postby Cog » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 09:16:25

GHung wrote:
Cog wrote:Depletion models were all the rage on the oil drum 10 years ago. Until reality intruded into their doom chamber.


Yes. Thank you Coggo. Consuming finite resources at unprecedented rates does not deplete them. It's magic!


Defending flawed models seems to be a habit with you. Remember the ETP model? LoL

No one doubts that oil depletes, just like no one knows how much recoverable oil there is left to deplete. It's a fools errand to try to predict global peak, not that we have any lack of fools who want to try it.
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Re: Here's a scary video!

Unread postby GHung » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 10:21:49

Cog wrote:
GHung wrote:
Cog wrote:Depletion models were all the rage on the oil drum 10 years ago. Until reality intruded into their doom chamber.


Yes. Thank you Coggo. Consuming finite resources at unprecedented rates does not deplete them. It's magic!


Defending flawed models seems to be a habit with you. Remember the ETP model? LoL

Blah, blah, blah....


Show me where, anywhere, I have defended flawed models.

Building strawmen seems to be a habbit with you 8O
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Re: Here's a scary video!

Unread postby Revi » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 11:37:47

Glad to see that people actually paid attention to this. I think it's a really good vid, mostly because of the fact that she says that depletion will trump new discovery. The punchline is that she says oil should be above $75 a barrel. Talk about understated conclusions!
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Re: Here's a scary video!

Unread postby Revi » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 16:09:02

It's interesting that you only find this kind of information on Business Insider. Why haven't others figured this out. Or have they? Is that what's going on with Saudi Arabia?
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Re: Here's a scary video!

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 18:40:07

Revi, I see nothing reassuring about the state of the KSA oil industry. From accounts of the poor geologic condition ie. high water cut etc. And the actions of KSA such as diversifying away from oil, attempting the IPO of their main oil company Aramco and finally their rather obvious failure to Rev up production levels. And to boot, pessimistic statements from high ranking officials
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Re: Here's a scary video!

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 25 Oct 2018, 22:56:33

The HSBC report:

Global oil supply: Will mature field declines drive the next supply crunch?

A few more reports here:

Peak Oil Reports

One article about the report and others:

Brace for the Oil, Food and Financial Crash of 2018

A report by HSBC shows that contrary to the commonplace narrative in the industry, even amidst the glut of unconventional oil and gas, the vast bulk of the world’s oil production has already peaked and is now in decline; while European government scientists show that the value of energy produced by oil has declined by half within just the first 15 years of the 21st century.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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