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When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 24 Apr 2019, 05:33:22

Funny thing, I read the above, and that's not what I think Ibon said.

As for the thread topic, the average person is blind to what is happening already today. The World is already experiencing a mass die-off. Ibon gave you a reasonable standard for when you should care - when the dying exceeds our reproduction rate. But people have always died from CC, natural disasters, disease, accidents, warfare, famine, etc. The same things that kill us then, after the dying exceeds the births, are the same causes of death we already experience.

From what we can tell from the fossil records, the present mass extinction is happening faster than some prior ones in history. But - and I weary of repeating this - it is a process, not an event. It began around 1800 when the number of humans exceeded the Earth's natural capacity to heal the damage we cause. It has slowly been accelerating since then.

This state of affairs is of course, completely unsatisfactory for the typical Doomie. The Doomies are breathlessly awaiting a dramatic EVENT we refer to as TEOTWAWKI. To them, it must be a disaster of some sort, felt world-wide. A "collapse" or a "crash" or a "die-off". The idea that we are 200+ years into the end of all things, the mass extinction caused by too many people on not enough planet, and furthermore that the leading edge of this non-event is in the past, is for them intolerable.

There are more intolerable concepts to embrace as well. Firstly, we may change our behaviors over time and avoid ever having any noticeable "event". The UN has just predicted that in the "medium fertility" scenario, the World population peaks at 9.8 billion around 2080. But they are confidently predicting a lower peak number at an earlier date, because they are always, always blowing sunshine up our posteriors. But this much is clear - the organization whose job it is to predict the future are NOT Peak Oil type Doomies.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Revi » Wed 24 Apr 2019, 12:32:45

We are going to see a higher death rate than children born in a lot of places. It's been happening in Maine for a while. It's been falling since the late 1800s in most of the state. There are a few small counties in southern Maine where most of the people live, then huge counties that are slowly emptying out north and east of them. We live in one of them.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 08:11:34

It seems there is a mass die off in China’s pig population, which apparently is a bigger thing than you might think.

Global pandemics that impact on food supplies are scary things.

The latest threat comes from African swine fever, a highly contagious virus with no known cure, and a near zero survival rate for infected pigs.

The good news is that the disease is not harmful to human health. The bad news is that it will probably hurt our wallets.

The epicentre of the current crisis is China, the world's biggest producer and consumer of pork. It alone accounts for more than half of the world's pig population.


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47956960
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 09:13:51

America is a very large pork producer in their own right. While the USA is the third largest pork producer in the world behind China and the EU, almost none of China's pork production is exported. They actually import some pork to keep pace with demand. Meanwhile, the USA exports 1/3rd of its pork production.

See link and charts below.

https://www.pork.org/facts/stats/u-s-po ... countries/
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 15:14:18

1 million species face extinction thanks to human activity

https://theweek.com/speedreads/837059/1 ... eport-says

...The pace of species loss is reportedly already "tens to hundreds of times higher than it has been, than it has been, over the last 10 million years."

Wild mammal biomass is down 82 percent...

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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 16:15:12

Back around 2013 when I started posting here, I started a thread about a pork shortage that happened in California when a major US pork producer called Smithfield was bought out by the Chinese. They diverted all the pork/ham/bacon/sausage/etc. in transit to California to nearby ports, and exported it to China as premium foodstuffs. After the second week, I managed to buy sliced deli ham and bacon at Costco. Because it flat out disappeared overnight at both of the supermarkets I patronized.

The "just in time" supply chain has advantages as well as weaknesses.

Dohboi, the species extinctions began happening around 1800 and have been slowly accelerating as human populations grew. Some people noticed this in the 1960's, and the Environmental movement was born. Some are not yet aware, and many are so obsessed with personal survival, as to not pay any attention.

You yourself as a Middle Class US citizen, consume enough food, water, and resources to keep a dozen odd Poor alive.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 27 Apr 2019, 18:28:10

https://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/04/20 ... DlMwj0&m=1

2019 is the year when the farming industry began to unravel as extreme weather and disease is hitting already stressed farmers around the world
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Revi » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 09:54:31

It's going to be a tough year for farmers, for sure. The nice stable climate we all got used to the past 5000 years is going away. It's going to be a much more difficult time from here on in. We plan on doing some things next season to help things along, but there will come a time when none of it works any more. I just planted a garden and I hope rain comes along at regular intervals, because I can't be there to water it until June. All you can do is plant and hope it works out.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby eclipse » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 22:05:59

If it's a nuclear war we're going to be facing a nuclear winter! Then rebuilding industrial civilisation after that in a post-fossil-fuel civilisation would be slower and based on local renewable energy systems until such time as they get a big enough society together to go fire up the nuclear reactors again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWmEgu1iP_E

Smart survivalists could have the "Civilisation starter kit" downloaded on their computers in their bunkers. It has plans and instructions on how to build small village-scaled versions of the top 50 industrial devices that enable industrial civilisation. As long as their computer is not too fried and they have access to some local solar power later on, they can access all this stuff. Open source ecology are not entirely finished but are working on plans for a tractor, bread oven, drill press, laser torch table, earth brick maker, harvester, string trimmer, soil pulveriser, metal rolling, bread baker, power cube (an engine that could be bio-diesel powered after an apocalypse), steam engine, induction furnace, and even small homes. They aim to have 50 of the most important industrial tools that operate as a ‘civilisation starter kit'. These plans could be used to scavenge parts and start again, or jerry rig existing factory machines back into operation.

Salvaging crews would scavenge the parts, and then a workshop engineer assemble machines according to the plans. The best bit? The top 50 devices work on 13 basic structures. If one bit breaks down on one machine, they can quickly unscrew it and place it on another. It's village scaled industrial civilisation on a database. (It's also useful for villages in 3rd world and developing areas where they can build their own tractors etc for 1/8th the price of the larger corporate vehicles.)
Dr James Hansen recommends breeder reactors that convert nuclear 'waste' into 1000 years of clean energy for America, and can charge all our light vehicles and generate "Blue Crude" for heavy vehicles.
https://eclipsenow.wordpress.com/recharge/
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 06:45:59

Neat idea. I’m not seeing any content.

You might want to acquaint yourself with Brent Swain.

https://www.nauticalmind.com/66137/orig ... ics-guide/

He has a book, self published, with a lot of details about building steel boats and the detailing. He also has ideas about very simple welders and methods. About as close to your concept as I’ve seen. Very self reliant person, but cantankerous.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 01 May 2019, 21:54:02

The Hunger Gaps: How Flowering Times Affect Farmland Bees

https://phys.org/news/2019-05-hunger-ga ... -bees.html

For the very first time, researchers from the University of Bristol have measured farmland nectar supplies throughout the whole year and revealed hungry gaps when food supply is not meeting pollinator demand. This novel finding reveals new ways of making farmland better for pollinators, benefitting the many crop plants and wildflowers that depend on them.

... "It's not just how much nectar there is that matters, but what time of year that nectar is available.

"If a bumblebee queen comes out of hibernation in March and finds nothing to eat, it doesn't matter how much nectar there is in summer, because she won't be alive."


T.P. Timberlake et al.

Phenology of farmland floral resources reveals seasonal gaps in nectar availability for bumblebees,
Journal of Applied Ecology (2019).
https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley ... 2664.13403
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Unread postby dohboi » Fri 03 May 2019, 16:30:03


Biodiversity crisis is about to put humanity at risk, UN scientists to warn


‘We are in trouble if we don’t act,’ say experts, with up to 1m species at risk of annihilation

https://www.theguardian.com/environment ... tists-warn
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby Cog » Fri 03 May 2019, 16:48:06

I guess parts 1-4 of "When will the mass dieoff begin?" did not give us any answers. LOL
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 03 May 2019, 17:36:17

The irony after spending 20 or 40 years contemplating this is that when it really does begin, for humans anyway, this site will no longer exist.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby careinke » Sun 05 May 2019, 00:26:37

Ibon wrote:The irony after spending 20 or 40 years contemplating this is that when it really does begin, for humans anyway, this site will no longer exist.

The Internet is forever.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby Yonnipun » Mon 06 May 2019, 16:22:14

Cog wrote:I guess parts 1-4 of "When will the mass dieoff begin?" did not give us any answers. LOL


I have said it many times. Scientists have calculated that we have topsoil left for approximately 40 years. Aquifers are also going to be empty approximately in the same time scale. So overall I think it is safe to say that things are going to get very ugly approximately 30 years from now. Simple as that.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 06 May 2019, 18:09:00

Yonnipun wrote:
Cog wrote:I guess parts 1-4 of "When will the mass dieoff begin?" did not give us any answers. LOL


I have said it many times. Scientists have calculated that we have topsoil left for approximately 40 years. Aquifers are also going to be empty approximately in the same time scale. So overall I think it is safe to say that things are going to get very ugly approximately 30 years from now. Simple as that.


Don't design your life around believing in this narrative.

I don't disagree with the premise but between now and then are many years still of abundance and it is a complete waste to focus on this.

A parable I have shared in the past. The magnolia tree leaning over on the edge of a cliff is adding biomass every year, the roots embedded in the rocks will give way at any moment. Tenuous at best and yet every spring in the meantime the tree bursts with a riot of blossoms.

Such is the fate of Kudzu Ape in the 21st century.

If we could all just learn to be like the magnolia.

Instead we both deny the truth of our inevitable fate at the same time as hysterically chasing empty and meaningless pleasures.

Our species is worst than yeast!
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby dohboi » Mon 06 May 2019, 19:39:59

the summary UN Extinction report here:-

https://www.ipbes.net/news/ipbes-global ... makers-pdf
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 23 May 2019, 16:12:03

At the same time that most species are and will be shrinking in numbers, more and more frequently down to nothing... most will also be literally shrinking...individual member getting smaller and smaller as the planet heats up.

Study Predicts Shift to Smaller Animals Over Next Century


https://phys.org/news/2019-05-shift-sma ... ntury.html

Researchers predict the average (median) body mass of mammals specifically will collectively reduce by 25 per cent over the next century. This decline represents a large, accelerated change when compared with the 14 per cent body size reduction observed in species from 130,000 years ago (the last interglacial period) until today.

In the future, small, fast-lived, highly-fertile, insect-eating animals, which can thrive in a wide-variety of habitats, will predominate. These 'winners' include rodents, such as dwarf gerbil—and songbirds, such as the white-browed sparrow-weaver. Less adaptable, slow-lived species, requiring specialist environmental conditions, will likely fall victim of extinction. These 'losers' include the tawny eagle and black rhinoceros.

... "The substantial 'downsizing' of species which we forecast could incur further negative impacts for the long-term sustainability of ecology and evolution. This downsizing may be happening due to the effects of ecological change but, ironically, with the loss of species which perform unique functions within our global ecosystem, it could also end up as a driver of change too."


Findings are published in detail in the journal Nature Communications.

Open Access: R. Cooke, et.al.,

Projected losses of global mammal and bird ecological strategies


Nature Communications (2019)

... The future defaunation explored here also shows parallels to historic extinction events, such as the late Quaternary extinctions, which likely disrupted species interactions, reduced long-distance seed dispersal, and fundamentally restructured energy flow and nutrient cycling through communities.

Moreover, a growing number of studies support the hypothesis that the late Quaternary extinctions had cascading effects on small vertebrates and plant community biodiversity and function, resulting in ecosystem shifts comparable in magnitude to those generated by climatic fluctuations
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 5

Unread postby Yonnipun » Fri 24 May 2019, 08:00:57

Looking at human fossil evidence for the past 200,000 years, Lahr looked at the size and structure of the bones and skulls found across Europe, Africa and Asia. What they discovered was that the largest Homo sapiens lived 20,000 to 30,000 years ago with an average weight between 176 and 188 pounds and a brain size of 1,500 cubic centimeters.


They discovered that some 10,000 years ago however, size started getting smaller both in stature and in brain size. Within the last 10 years, the average human size has changed to a weight between 154 and 176 pounds and a brain size of 1,350 cubic centimeters.


While large size remained static for close to 200,000 years, researchers believe the reduction in stature can be connected to a change from the hunter-gatherer way of life to that of agriculture which began some 9,000 years ago.
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