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When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 14 Mar 2019, 18:33:18

Newfie wrote:An interesting report from the New York Post if all places.

I like it because it talks about the multiplicity of problems we face. Threat integration.

https://nypost.com/2019/03/13/dire-un-c ... lanet/amp/

Yes, the UN is doing some pretty comprehensive and objective recording of the worsening impacts on the planet from human numbers and activities.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 19:46:39

More on the UN report:

UN Calls for Urgent Rethink as Resource Use Skyrockets

https://phys.org/news/2019-03-urgent-re ... ckets.html

Rapid growth in extraction of materials (and overpopulation) is the chief culprit in climate change and biodiversity loss – a challenge that will only worsen unless the world urgently undertakes a systemic reform of resource use, according to a report released at the UN Environment Assembly.

Global Resources Outlook 2019, prepared by the International Resource Panel, examines the trends in natural resources and their corresponding consumption patterns since the 1970s to support policymakers in strategic decision-making and transitioning to a sustainable economy.

The main conclusions of the report are:

- Resource extraction has more than tripled since 1970, including a fivefold increase in the use of non-metallic minerals and a 45 per cent increase in fossil fuel use

- By 2060, global material use could double to 190 billion tonnes (from 92 billion), while greenhouse gas emissions could increase by 43 per cent

- The extraction and processing of materials, fuels and food contribute half of total global greenhouse gas emissions and over 90 per cent of biodiversity loss and water stress

... "The Global Resources Outlook shows that we are ploughing through this planet's finite resources as if there is no tomorrow, causing climate change and biodiversity loss along the way," said Joyce Msyua, Acting Executive Director of UN Environment. "Frankly, there will be no tomorrow for many people unless we stop."

https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/27518

----------------------------

Related: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index. ... #msg178531

The World Has Reached Peak Chicken, Peak Rice, And Peak Milk

https://www.fastcompany.com/3041927/the ... -peak-milk

We still haven’t reached peak oil. But peak milk happened in 2004, peak soybeans in 2009, and peak chicken in 2006. Rice peaked in 1988.

A new study published in Ecology and Society explains that 21 key resources that humans rely on–mostly food–have already passed their peak rate of production.

“Peak,” in this case, doesn’t mean that we’re actually producing fewer chickens or less milk yet. Instead, the researchers looked at the fact that the rate of production has plateaued, at the same time that population is increasing.

The researchers analyzed production rates over time for 27 key resources, including some fossil fuels. But while they found that nonrenewable resources like coal, oil, and gas haven’t peaked, most foods have.


Open Access: Seppelt, R., A. M. Manceur, J. Liu, E. P. Fenichel, and S. Klotz.

Synchronized peak-rate years of global resources use.

Ecology and Society
19(4): 50. 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-07039-190450

(Thanks to vox at asif for these)
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 22 Mar 2019, 20:35:18

More on the UN report:

UN Calls for Urgent Rethink as Resource Use Skyrockets

https://phys.org/news/2019-03-urgent-re ... ckets.html

Rapid growth in extraction of materials (and overpopulation) is the chief culprit in climate change and biodiversity loss – a challenge that will only worsen unless the world urgently undertakes a systemic reform of resource use, according to a report released at the UN Environment Assembly.

Global Resources Outlook 2019, prepared by the International Resource Panel, examines the trends in natural resources and their corresponding consumption patterns since the 1970s to support policymakers in strategic decision-making and transitioning to a sustainable economy.

The main conclusions of the report are:

- Resource extraction has more than tripled since 1970, including a fivefold increase in the use of non-metallic minerals and a 45 per cent increase in fossil fuel use

- By 2060, global material use could double to 190 billion tonnes (from 92 billion), while greenhouse gas emissions could increase by 43 per cent

- The extraction and processing of materials, fuels and food contribute half of total global greenhouse gas emissions and over 90 per cent of biodiversity loss and water stress

... "The Global Resources Outlook shows that we are ploughing through this planet's finite resources as if there is no tomorrow, causing climate change and biodiversity loss along the way," said Joyce Msyua, Acting Executive Director of UN Environment. "Frankly, there will be no tomorrow for many people unless we stop."

https://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/27518

----------------------------

Related: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index. ... #msg178531

The World Has Reached Peak Chicken, Peak Rice, And Peak Milk

https://www.fastcompany.com/3041927/the ... -peak-milk

We still haven’t reached peak oil. But peak milk happened in 2004, peak soybeans in 2009, and peak chicken in 2006. Rice peaked in 1988.

A new study published in Ecology and Society explains that 21 key resources that humans rely on–mostly food–have already passed their peak rate of production.

“Peak,” in this case, doesn’t mean that we’re actually producing fewer chickens or less milk yet. Instead, the researchers looked at the fact that the rate of production has plateaued, at the same time that population is increasing.

The researchers analyzed production rates over time for 27 key resources, including some fossil fuels. But while they found that nonrenewable resources like coal, oil, and gas haven’t peaked, most foods have.


Open Access: Seppelt, R., A. M. Manceur, J. Liu, E. P. Fenichel, and S. Klotz.

Synchronized peak-rate years of global resources use.

Ecology and Society
19(4): 50. 2014. http://dx.doi.org/10.5751/ES-07039-190450

(Thanks to vox at asif for these)
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Alien species are primary cause of recent global extinctions

Unread postby jawagord » Mon 22 Apr 2019, 23:14:54

The results are in and Climate Change is NOT the driver of species extinction, not even mentioned. The beauty of CC is the catastrophe from warming is always “12 years” into the future. So we still have time to fix this, a carbon tax will surely send all those alien species back to where they came from?

....since 1500, alien species have been solely responsible for 126 extinctions, 13% of the total number studied.

Of 953 global extinctions, 300 happened in some part because of alien species, and of those 300, 42% had alien species alone listed as the cause of their demise.

The study, published today in Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, used data from the 2017 IUCN Red List on the total numbers of species that are considered to have gone extinct globally since 1500.

In total, 261 out of 782 animal species (33.4%) and 39 out of 153 plant species (25.5%) listed aliens as one of their extinction drivers. In contrast, native species impacts were associated with only 2.7% of animal extinctions and 4.6% of plant extinctions.


https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2019/mar/ali ... xtinctions
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Yonnipun » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 02:16:55

It really is simple- scientists have worned us that topsoil is gone after 60 years from now. We all are going to die then.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 09:33:49

Yon, many farmers are switching over to no-till farming, which should push that estimate out a bit. Of course, as CC accelerates, cycles of extreme drought and extreme rain will wash away most of the top soil anyway.

And of course it is laughable to say that the negative consequences of CC are always 12 years out. The deadly heatwave in '03 that killed tens of thousands in France and surrounding areas in just a few days was the first single event that could be clearly shown beyond a reasonable doubt to have been impossible without the added influence of GW. Many more have followed. And yes, there are sadly many causes for the current Mass Extinction Event. GW will play an ever larger role in that mega-catastrophe.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Revi » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 09:42:57

It's possible it could start soon, especially if they are right about a blue arctic event within the next 4 years. If you think about a glass of cold drink, it stays cool until the last piece of ice melts and then warms rapidly. It takes 80 calories to melt a gram of ice, but those same 80 calories of heat bring that water to almost boiling at 80C. We live in that cool drink. What do you think is going to happen when the ice melts?

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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 11:25:48

dohboi wrote:And of course it is laughable to say that the negative consequences of CC are always 12 years out. The deadly heatwave in '03 that killed tens of thousands in France and surrounding areas in just a few days was the first single event that could be clearly shown beyond a reasonable doubt to have been impossible without the added influence of GW. Many more have followed. And yes, there are sadly many causes for the current Mass Extinction Event. GW will play an ever larger role in that mega-catastrophe.



From 2003 until 2019 the human population went from 6.3 billion to 7.7 billion. That is an additional 1.4 billion. That tens of thousands have died in a heat wave and hurricanes and tornadoes and flooding during the same time represents an absolute insignificant consequence of CC on the human juggernaut.

I have to agree that it is laughable at this point to attribute CC contributing to human die-off and so yes indeed it is still 12 year out.

When the death rate of CC events exceed the birthrate of the human juggernaut then we are talking some real meaningful consequences. In the mean time..... a big fat yawn.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Tue 23 Apr 2019, 21:08:11

Basically, Ibon just said that he will not be impressed until CC directly wipes him out...and he'll be busily yawning right up until that last breath...what a way to go! :D :D :D
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 24 Apr 2019, 05:33:22

Funny thing, I read the above, and that's not what I think Ibon said.

As for the thread topic, the average person is blind to what is happening already today. The World is already experiencing a mass die-off. Ibon gave you a reasonable standard for when you should care - when the dying exceeds our reproduction rate. But people have always died from CC, natural disasters, disease, accidents, warfare, famine, etc. The same things that kill us then, after the dying exceeds the births, are the same causes of death we already experience.

From what we can tell from the fossil records, the present mass extinction is happening faster than some prior ones in history. But - and I weary of repeating this - it is a process, not an event. It began around 1800 when the number of humans exceeded the Earth's natural capacity to heal the damage we cause. It has slowly been accelerating since then.

This state of affairs is of course, completely unsatisfactory for the typical Doomie. The Doomies are breathlessly awaiting a dramatic EVENT we refer to as TEOTWAWKI. To them, it must be a disaster of some sort, felt world-wide. A "collapse" or a "crash" or a "die-off". The idea that we are 200+ years into the end of all things, the mass extinction caused by too many people on not enough planet, and furthermore that the leading edge of this non-event is in the past, is for them intolerable.

There are more intolerable concepts to embrace as well. Firstly, we may change our behaviors over time and avoid ever having any noticeable "event". The UN has just predicted that in the "medium fertility" scenario, the World population peaks at 9.8 billion around 2080. But they are confidently predicting a lower peak number at an earlier date, because they are always, always blowing sunshine up our posteriors. But this much is clear - the organization whose job it is to predict the future are NOT Peak Oil type Doomies.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Revi » Wed 24 Apr 2019, 12:32:45

We are going to see a higher death rate than children born in a lot of places. It's been happening in Maine for a while. It's been falling since the late 1800s in most of the state. There are a few small counties in southern Maine where most of the people live, then huge counties that are slowly emptying out north and east of them. We live in one of them.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 08:11:34

It seems there is a mass die off in China’s pig population, which apparently is a bigger thing than you might think.

Global pandemics that impact on food supplies are scary things.

The latest threat comes from African swine fever, a highly contagious virus with no known cure, and a near zero survival rate for infected pigs.

The good news is that the disease is not harmful to human health. The bad news is that it will probably hurt our wallets.

The epicentre of the current crisis is China, the world's biggest producer and consumer of pork. It alone accounts for more than half of the world's pig population.


https://www.bbc.com/news/business-47956960
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Cog » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 09:13:51

America is a very large pork producer in their own right. While the USA is the third largest pork producer in the world behind China and the EU, almost none of China's pork production is exported. They actually import some pork to keep pace with demand. Meanwhile, the USA exports 1/3rd of its pork production.

See link and charts below.

https://www.pork.org/facts/stats/u-s-po ... countries/
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 15:14:18

1 million species face extinction thanks to human activity

https://theweek.com/speedreads/837059/1 ... eport-says

...The pace of species loss is reportedly already "tens to hundreds of times higher than it has been, than it has been, over the last 10 million years."

Wild mammal biomass is down 82 percent...

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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 26 Apr 2019, 16:15:12

Back around 2013 when I started posting here, I started a thread about a pork shortage that happened in California when a major US pork producer called Smithfield was bought out by the Chinese. They diverted all the pork/ham/bacon/sausage/etc. in transit to California to nearby ports, and exported it to China as premium foodstuffs. After the second week, I managed to buy sliced deli ham and bacon at Costco. Because it flat out disappeared overnight at both of the supermarkets I patronized.

The "just in time" supply chain has advantages as well as weaknesses.

Dohboi, the species extinctions began happening around 1800 and have been slowly accelerating as human populations grew. Some people noticed this in the 1960's, and the Environmental movement was born. Some are not yet aware, and many are so obsessed with personal survival, as to not pay any attention.

You yourself as a Middle Class US citizen, consume enough food, water, and resources to keep a dozen odd Poor alive.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 27 Apr 2019, 18:28:10

https://www.thebigwobble.org/2019/04/20 ... DlMwj0&m=1

2019 is the year when the farming industry began to unravel as extreme weather and disease is hitting already stressed farmers around the world
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Revi » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 09:54:31

It's going to be a tough year for farmers, for sure. The nice stable climate we all got used to the past 5000 years is going away. It's going to be a much more difficult time from here on in. We plan on doing some things next season to help things along, but there will come a time when none of it works any more. I just planted a garden and I hope rain comes along at regular intervals, because I can't be there to water it until June. All you can do is plant and hope it works out.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby eclipse » Mon 29 Apr 2019, 22:05:59

If it's a nuclear war we're going to be facing a nuclear winter! Then rebuilding industrial civilisation after that in a post-fossil-fuel civilisation would be slower and based on local renewable energy systems until such time as they get a big enough society together to go fire up the nuclear reactors again.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QWmEgu1iP_E

Smart survivalists could have the "Civilisation starter kit" downloaded on their computers in their bunkers. It has plans and instructions on how to build small village-scaled versions of the top 50 industrial devices that enable industrial civilisation. As long as their computer is not too fried and they have access to some local solar power later on, they can access all this stuff. Open source ecology are not entirely finished but are working on plans for a tractor, bread oven, drill press, laser torch table, earth brick maker, harvester, string trimmer, soil pulveriser, metal rolling, bread baker, power cube (an engine that could be bio-diesel powered after an apocalypse), steam engine, induction furnace, and even small homes. They aim to have 50 of the most important industrial tools that operate as a ‘civilisation starter kit'. These plans could be used to scavenge parts and start again, or jerry rig existing factory machines back into operation.

Salvaging crews would scavenge the parts, and then a workshop engineer assemble machines according to the plans. The best bit? The top 50 devices work on 13 basic structures. If one bit breaks down on one machine, they can quickly unscrew it and place it on another. It's village scaled industrial civilisation on a database. (It's also useful for villages in 3rd world and developing areas where they can build their own tractors etc for 1/8th the price of the larger corporate vehicles.)
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 30 Apr 2019, 06:45:59

Neat idea. I’m not seeing any content.

You might want to acquaint yourself with Brent Swain.

https://www.nauticalmind.com/66137/orig ... ics-guide/

He has a book, self published, with a lot of details about building steel boats and the detailing. He also has ideas about very simple welders and methods. About as close to your concept as I’ve seen. Very self reliant person, but cantankerous.
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Re: When will the mass dieoff begin? Pt. 4

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 01 May 2019, 21:54:02

The Hunger Gaps: How Flowering Times Affect Farmland Bees

https://phys.org/news/2019-05-hunger-ga ... -bees.html

For the very first time, researchers from the University of Bristol have measured farmland nectar supplies throughout the whole year and revealed hungry gaps when food supply is not meeting pollinator demand. This novel finding reveals new ways of making farmland better for pollinators, benefitting the many crop plants and wildflowers that depend on them.

... "It's not just how much nectar there is that matters, but what time of year that nectar is available.

"If a bumblebee queen comes out of hibernation in March and finds nothing to eat, it doesn't matter how much nectar there is in summer, because she won't be alive."


T.P. Timberlake et al.

Phenology of farmland floral resources reveals seasonal gaps in nectar availability for bumblebees,
Journal of Applied Ecology (2019).
https://besjournals.onlinelibrary.wiley ... 2664.13403
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