Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

The Nipah Virus

The Nipah Virus

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Mon 28 May 2018, 01:16:46

News of virus outbreaks often seems to come out of nowhere: One day, no one's heard of a virus, and the next, it's dominating headlines — like the Nipah virus outbreak in India. Or, you may have thought that a virus disappeared, only for it to re-emerge — like Ebola.

But viruses don't just pop up out of nowhere. In fact, "we really only know the tip of the iceberg of the viruses that exist in nature," said Dr. Amesh Adalja, an infectious-disease physician and a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security. Take, for example, a classic visit to the doctor's office for an upper respiratory infection, Adalja said: The doctor will most likely tell you it's a viral infection but won't know which virus it is, because diagnostic tools haven't yet gotten us there.

"There's a very, very, very select few [viruses] that can actually sustain transmission between humans, and that's where a lot of the danger lies," Adalja said.

If the viruses become capable of hurling themselves from human to human, they begin to jump countries, hitching free rides across an ever-globalized world. Then, it becomes a pandemic.

"Every time we get a little change [in a virus], we get a new outbreak," Schaffner told Live Science. Because the flu virus continuously evolves, for example, the vaccines for it are never 100 percent effective.

A more globalized world makes it easier for viruses to spread widely."Today, anyone can get on a plane anywhere in the world and be around the world in 24 hours," Schaffner said. "The world is smaller than ever — it's easier now than it was 50 years ago to introduce one of these viruses into the United States."


Nipah is on the World Health Organization’s priority list of emerging diseases that could cause a global pandemic, alongside Zika and Ebola.

“This is the first time we’ve seen the virus in south India,” says R.L. Sarita, the director of health services in the Indian state of Kerala. “And we want to make sure that it stays contained here.”

Those infected suffer a quick onset of symptoms, including fever, vomiting, disorientation, mental confusion, encephalitis and — in up to 70 percent of cases, depending on the strain — ultimately death. Here’s what we know, and don’t know, about this incurable disease:

How is the Nipah virus spread?

Several species of fruit bat that live throughout Asia carry Nipah. Several factors have increased the chance of bat-borne viruses being passed to humans, including development that has encroached on the bats’ natural habitats. “It used to be that these bats stayed far away from human populations,” Wang says.

Bats can also transmit Nipah to pigs and other livestock, which can then pass the infection onto humans. And humans can spread the virus through saliva and possibly other bodily fluids. One victim in the latest outbreak was a 31-year-old nurse who had been treating Nipah patients.

How does the virus cause infection?

Nipah and its viral cousin Hendra latch onto a proteins called ephrin-B2 and ephrin-B3 on the surface of nerve cells and the endothelial cells lining blood and lymph vessels, researchers have found. Nipah can also invade lung and kidney cells.

Virologists who have studied Nipah’s behavior in animals think that in humans, it initially targets the respiratory system before spreading to the nervous system and brain. Most patients who die succumb to an inflammation of blood vessels and a swelling of the brain that occurs in the later stages of the disease.

Why are epidemiologists worried about Nipah?

“The No. 1 reason is that it’s just so lethal,” says Linfa Wang, who heads the emerging infectious diseases program at the Duke-NUS Medical School in Singapore. In fact, the villain virus in the 2011 film Contagion was based on Nipah (SN Online: 10/19/11).

Because the symptoms of Nipah infection are similar to those for other diseases, including encephalitis and the flu, cases may be misdiagnosed. India has only two main diagnostic laboratories, both in the central city of Pune, equipped to confirm Nipah infection.

“In order for a disease to spread globally, each person has to infect at least more than one person,” Luby says. But “anytime the virus is inside a human, it has the opportunity to evolve and adapt to that human-specific environment,” Luby says. The worst-case scenario is a future strain that can transmit more quickly or easily among humans, which is why the WHO and global health experts are urging more research into vaccines and treatments.

“I hope what we learned from the Ebola outbreak, is that if we have the ability to prepare, we should do that,” says Emily Gurley, an infectious disease epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health in Baltimore.

In fact, in response to this latest outbreak, the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI), a global alliance that formed last year to encourage and finance the development of vaccines, has announced that they will be granting $25 million to two American biotech companies to accelerate work on a Nipah vaccine. Researchers have tested experimental Nipah vaccines on animals, but have yet to conduct clinical trials.


The pandemic potential of Nipah virus
Abstract

Nipah virus, a paramyxovirus whose wildlife reservoir is Pteropus bats, was first discovered in a large outbreak of acute encephalitis in Malaysia in 1998 among persons who had contact with sick pigs. Apparently, one or more pigs was infected from bats, and the virus then spread efficiently from pig to pig, then from pigs to people. Nipah virus outbreaks have been recognized nearly every year in Bangladesh since 2001 and occasionally in neighboring India. Outbreaks in Bangladesh and India have been characterized by frequent person-to-person transmission and the death of over 70% of infected people. Characteristics of Nipah virus that increase its risk of becoming a global pandemic include: humans are already susceptible; many strains are capable of limited person-to-person transmission; as an RNA virus, it has an exceptionally high rate of mutation: and that if a human-adapted strain were to infect communities in South Asia, high population densities and global interconnectedness would rapidly spread the infection. Appropriate steps to estimate and manage this risk include studies to explore the molecular and genetic basis of respiratory transmission of henipaviruses, improved surveillance for human infections, and support from high-income countries to reduce the risk of person-to-person transmission of infectious agents in low-income health care settings.

link

Another thing to put on the radar.
"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

The level of injustice and wrong you endure is directly determined by how much you quietly submit to. Even to the point of extinction.
User avatar
Cid_Yama
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 7169
Joined: Sun 27 May 2007, 02:00:00
Location: The Post Peak Oil Historian

Re: The Nipah Virus

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 28 May 2018, 06:46:15

Cid_Yama wrote:
News of virus outbreaks often seems to come out of nowhere: One day, no one's heard of a virus, and the next, it's dominating headlines — like the Nipah virus outbreak in India.


Another thing to put on the radar.


No thanks. Prior to ultrasound you didn't know if it was a boy or girl until it was born. You don't want to know what is in that wrapped present until christmas or your birthday. The suspense and surprise is part of the spice of life.

I want our demise to sneak through the back door and be a fully unanticipated event.

That way in the meantime I do not have to lug around a heavy backpack full of potential death and destruction.

Yeah , we know its coming, any day, any month, any year..... death sitting on your left shoulder whispering into your ear. Humanity on the brink of extinction.

Yawn.
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7170
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: The Nipah Virus

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 28 May 2018, 09:05:00

WHY do some here relish the end of all things with so much glee?

The endless refrain of THERE WILL BE DOOM in so many repititions and so many variations, is niether helpful nor entertaining.

Now the human race will unconsciously select for those genes that allow or demand that one plan for entire generations where people will exist in the context of increasingly expensive energy, which in turn will result in increasingly expensive everything else, including food and water. If you can make a plan that enables your great-great-grandchildren to live comfortably, you can ensure the further persistence of your genes.
Image
It is up to them to actually do so. But the Long Emergency will emerge with such exquisite slowness that many will not even realize that it comes, and it will reap humans like a scythe reaps wheat. Those who have the means to survive, I firmly believe, are those whose families made plans to have the stuff of life available in the coming decades.

Your descendants will have to conserve and preserve what you leave them. Your legacy is the means of life in a world where most people don't have such, because they did not have thoughtful ancestors who preserved the means of life. These means - and the smarts to make use of same and to teach such things to each generation - are the manifestation of new survival skills, slow generations in the making.

Some of the 1% are there already. You never recognized that the lifestyles of the rich were a longtime survival scheme, but now I make that suggestion to you. However, there are other schemes that work.
Image
On my grandfather's dairy farm in Arkansas, there are five of his thirteen kids, living in houses dispersed through his former property. Some are surrounded by extended family, some never reproduced. But because his will said that all surviving kids must agree before the land could be sold, and because they could never agree to do so, the family farm still exists. The words he taught them all were "Land can always be sold for money, but those with money can not always buy land." He taught me this as well, as did his oldest kid, my Mother. I feel that as many as three of her own six kids will be teaching this to their own descendants. I am one of the three.
Image
Last edited by KaiserJeep on Mon 28 May 2018, 09:30:13, edited 1 time in total.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6094
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: Wisconsin's Dreamland

Re: The Nipah Virus

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 28 May 2018, 09:15:50

KJ, I agree with most of your post, especially this herd of Eeyore's (as in winnie the pooh) who come to the trough together everyday to piss and moan over gloom and doom! ha ha . .

Where I have a little disagreement with you, and I do not mean to squash your well intentioned hopes to plan for your grand children's safety, is the inability to really anticipate the future. I don't think we can really design that much safety into our future generations.

In ecology genetics and natural selection work in this funny way were choas and luck are huge components that stand side by side with the actual selecting out of genes.

Those poor marsupials in south america had no control over the placental mammals that crossed over the land bridge in Panama 3 million years ago. A geological event with major ramifications.

I have let go of any real specific planning for myself or my offspring, real freedom I think is also about accepting the limits of specific plannings. This does not discount of course career choices like Baha in the here and now which is great. I am more referring to what I think is kind of a futility in anticipating the next 100 years.
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7170
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: The Nipah Virus

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 28 May 2018, 09:31:58

Oddly enough, Ibon, I thought the Cloud Forest was part of your own survival plan. A particularly good plan.

As for the future, it's a game of probabilities. Those who are smart and resourceful and react correctly to new and changing circumstances will fare well ... almost as well as those who are smart and resourceful and react correctly to new and changing circumstances, but also have access to what are then-impossible-to-get-resources which were bequeathed to them by their ancestors.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6094
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: Wisconsin's Dreamland

Re: The Nipah Virus

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 28 May 2018, 11:40:56

I mean, I could be wrong about this, but in a world of increased numbers of people and limited-by-expensive-energy-resources, those who inherited such resources have an edge - as long as they can conserve them, keep them safe, and in turn bequeath them to their own children, along with the basic strategy to preserve the family properties.

Knowing how one can live on a piece of fertile land, with a well, a woodlot, a few chickens, and a source of renewable electrical power, is a basic survival skillset and a time-honored way to weather tough times, in the Great Depression of the 1930s, or the likely Great Depression to come. Part of the scheme is to preserve your property by having little actual income, which is a tax strategy. Another tax strategy is to keep as much of the land unimproved as possible.

In this manner, land conservation is a survival strategy. Surely this resonates with a man who is part owner of a Cloud Forest and whose daughters live nearby.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6094
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: Wisconsin's Dreamland

Re: The Nipah Virus

Unread postby dissident » Mon 28 May 2018, 23:20:10

Overpopulation and climate change are not "doomer" lies. They are real no matter how hard deniers bleat that they are not important. One of the key aspects of these two conditions is the spread of fringe, virulent viruses that existed in isolated niche environments. Planning for some early 1800s homestead life in the coming years is simply delusional. The conditions of the early 1800s are not coming back, in fact they are receding faster into oblivion. Good luck with your survivalist homestead as tropical diseases and weather swamp you.
User avatar
dissident
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 5526
Joined: Sat 08 Apr 2006, 02:00:00

Re: The Nipah Virus

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 29 May 2018, 01:19:25

Yep. The only thing the rural homestead has that the cities do not, is food. You must live within about 50 miles of where 90 % of your food is grown. Transport costs are prohibitive after the age of cheap oil has ended.

By then, I believe the urban residents will be eating each other.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6094
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: Wisconsin's Dreamland

Re: The Nipah Virus

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 29 May 2018, 07:19:19

KaiserJeep wrote:Oddly enough, Ibon, I thought the Cloud Forest was part of your own survival plan. A particularly good plan.


Nope. Never was. It just happens to have all the attributes but being a survival plan was not the motivation. I am a naturalist and was drawn here almost entirely because of the ecological integrity of the site and a wish to withdraw from civilization and share as a host this place with guests. I knew the eco-tourism potential the moment I saw the land but even being a host is not my real strength since I am rather anti-social.

Seeing this place as a doomstead would be for the following reasons:

1) Wearing that claim as a badge of honor as if I was some real survivalist.
2) Needing to delude myself that I am actually prepping in some effective way.

I do not need either of those crutches as they are both delusional.

This place, out on the fringe of civilization, would provide at most a temporary respite from any real global collapse of civilization. That temporary respite would be horrific as the resources and infrastructure would slowly break down.

I am as committed to BAU staying resilient as the Koch Brothers. Otherwise my little enterprise here depending on the discretionary spending of tourists would not survive.
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7170
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: The Nipah Virus

Unread postby GHung » Tue 29 May 2018, 08:43:41

KaiserJeep wrote:I mean, I could be wrong about this, but in a world of increased numbers of people and limited-by-expensive-energy-resources, those who inherited such resources have an edge - as long as they can conserve them, keep them safe, and in turn bequeath them to their own children, along with the basic strategy to preserve the family properties.

Knowing how one can live on a piece of fertile land, with a well, a woodlot, a few chickens, and a source of renewable electrical power, is a basic survival skillset and a time-honored way to weather tough times, in the Great Depression of the 1930s, or the likely Great Depression to come. Part of the scheme is to preserve your property by having little actual income, which is a tax strategy. Another tax strategy is to keep as much of the land unimproved as possible.

In this manner, land conservation is a survival strategy. Surely this resonates with a man who is part owner of a Cloud Forest and whose daughters live nearby.


Pretty much nailed it there, KJ. In our case, it involves reducing utter reliance upon highly complex systems that are likely to either fail or become much less affordable. Best to not commit to being in a growing competition for 'essential' systems and goods we have no control over; food,,, water,,, energy..... Frees up resources for other things, including community. As much of a retirement plan as anything.

As for land conservation, some folks have suggested we build some rental units on our marginal land for income. Don't want the headaches, and the land is fine the way it is. The deer and rabbits love it. And as you say, it becomes a permanent tax liability I don't need. Better to build a pond and let the neighbors' kids fish there. They'll remember that when tough times come along, as they always will. Besides, seeing a five-year-old's face as they land their first big catfish is priceless.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2836
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: The Nipah Virus

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 29 May 2018, 10:39:03

My father was the quintessential agrarian survivalist. He grew up a Mennonite in eastern Pennsylvania on 400 acres of prime farm land in Lancaster County. Tobacco as cash crop, dairy cows, they grew corn and all their feed for the livestock, huge garden, pond, geese, ducks, horses to plow the fields. 5 siblings all came of age during WWII. Not a single one of them was interested to farm and my grandfather sold the farm when I was 2 years old in 1959.
They thrived yes but not a single one of those siblings, all honed for the work of toil on that land, was interested to keep the farm. This is prime agricultural land.

What KJ said was correct but you guys do not have a clue what your talking about regarding one day surviving on farming or off the land.

Here in Panama we have a coffee plantation, raise cattle, maintain forest and trails and manage the infrastructure we built for tourists. Remove the tourist revenue and there is no way to make this piece of land economically sustainable, even with the farm hands who earn $ 12 dollars a day.

This talk of buying land as a prep for hard times is purely delusional for any of us raised as we have been. My father and his siblings, honed for this hard work, rejected it in the end.

We can Wendell Berry romanticize all we want agrarian pastel life and imagine in collapse that we would have some edge. It's simply a way to cope.

Face it folks, the only game in town is BAU and keeping it as resilient as possible. Yes the economy will constrain, yes energy will become critical, stay out of debt and reduce your energy footprint, scale down your consumption, learn to fix things and all that stuff.

But don't kid yourselves.
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7170
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: The Nipah Virus

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 29 May 2018, 10:53:43

It is great we drifted from the threads topic. Who the hell wanted to discuss anyway another potential pandemic virus that wasn't, isn't and never will be?
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7170
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama

Re: The Nipah Virus

Unread postby GHung » Tue 29 May 2018, 11:32:33

Ibon wrote:......

Face it folks, the only game in town is BAU and keeping it as resilient as possible. Yes the economy will constrain, yes energy will become critical, stay out of debt and reduce your energy footprint, scale down your consumption, learn to fix things and all that stuff.

But don't kid yourselves.


I, for one, don't do absolutes,, and who's kidding themselves? Also, BAU? What is that? BAU in 1930 looked a lot different from BAU in 1925, eh? Or 1918....

As for the topic, the best strategy for surviving a pandemic is to limit ones exposure, and already living a semi-self-sufficient lifestyle reasonably away from the crowds allows one to do that more easily. Those who are locked into traveling or high frequency consumption patterns will have a difficult adjustment for the most part, or risk becoming a statistic. Those who have to service their debt have a hard decision to make when it comes to not showing up for work where potential exposure is much higher. That would be most folks these days.

It comes down to avoiding traps whenever possible. Those traps include debt, long and complex personal supply chains, and limited options.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
User avatar
GHung
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2836
Joined: Tue 08 Sep 2009, 15:06:11
Location: Moksha, Nearvana

Re: The Nipah Virus

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 29 May 2018, 12:33:57

I agree that subsistence farming is very hard, very unlikely for most people. But a well, a garden, a wind turbine or solar PV setup can make the difference between affording your medications and food both, or just one of the two, when retirement money is tight. By the way, money is always tight. $10,000 today is equivalent to $1,600 in 1969 money, just using the optimistic government inflation figures. The Social Security pensioner and the person collecting a fixed retirement both suffer, always have, always will.

My GrandFather had 5 sons and 8 daughters, and barely made a living on his farm. His cash crop was milk, and he bought only 50lb sacks of flour, sugar, dried beans, and a few cans. Plus gasoline for his tractor and truck. He grew most of his food, plus chickens, pigs, and of course beef.

Nor was I planning on growing anything much on my 2 acres on Nantucket. Very poor sandy soil, even though it is a pine forest. A few wild blueberries grow there, and my FIL kept chickens for eggs. But I can put three rental cottages there and not only pay taxes and maintenance, but make a profit, as long as there are wealthy people looking to vacation. As well as keeping the little 2-bedroom, 2-bath, 900 sq ft home that is there for my own use.

I would say that my long term objective is to survive comfortably, while those around me survive uncomfortably. Then to teach my descendants how to do the same, and to provide the means for this.
KaiserJeep 2.0, Neural Subnode 0010 0000 0001 0110 - 1001 0011 0011, Tertiary Adjunct to Unimatrix 0000 0000 0001

Resistance is Futile, YOU will be Assimilated.

Warning: Messages timestamped before April 1, 2016, 06:00 PST were posted by the unmodified human KaiserJeep 1.0
KaiserJeep
Light Sweet Crude
Light Sweet Crude
 
Posts: 6094
Joined: Tue 06 Aug 2013, 16:16:32
Location: Wisconsin's Dreamland

Re: The Nipah Virus

Unread postby Ibon » Tue 29 May 2018, 17:38:38

GHung wrote:
It comes down to avoiding traps whenever possible. Those traps include debt, long and complex personal supply chains, and limited options.


I agree about not doing absolutes, I was just trying to inject some reality. Avoiding traps is the name of the game as you said. Street smarts, living without debt and the baggage of stuff etc.

When I mention that BAU is the only game in town I include Baha doing his solar thing etc. The slow conversion to alternatives and the grinding down of consumption as constraints start to tighten will be part of BAU.

This idea of preparing for an all out collapse of BAU as some anticipate is really what I am addressing as being a futile exercise.
Our resiliency resembles an invasive weed. We are the Kudzu Ape
blog: http://blog.mounttotumas.com/
website: http://www.mounttotumas.com
User avatar
Ibon
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 7170
Joined: Fri 03 Dec 2004, 03:00:00
Location: Volcan, Panama


Return to Environment, Weather & Climate

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 11 guests