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Two Korea's peace overture

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Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 27 Apr 2018, 12:39:40

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nort ... SKBN1HX2I6
The leaders of North and South Korea embraced on Friday and pledged to work for the “complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula”
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Re: Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby Cog » Fri 27 Apr 2018, 12:55:15

Like any other deal, the terms must be verified. The history of North Korea of keeping its end of a deal are not good. I'm hopeful but not very optimistic.
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Re: Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 27 Apr 2018, 14:22:18

This seems to be more than just political gesturing.
North and South Korea to officially end war after 65 years, new report says

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2018/0 ... port-says/
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Re: Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby Cog » Fri 27 Apr 2018, 14:24:40

onlooker wrote:This seems to be more than just political gesturing.
North and South Korea to officially end war after 65 years, new report says

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2018/0 ... port-says/


Does this mean Trump gets the Nobel Peace Prize for initiating the peace process between North and South Korea?

Yeah I didn't think so.
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Re: Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 27 Apr 2018, 14:45:20

Yes if these stories are true, I think he does deserve the NPP
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Re: Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 28 Apr 2018, 05:51:36

Cog wrote:
onlooker wrote:This seems to be more than just political gesturing.
North and South Korea to officially end war after 65 years, new report says

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2018/0 ... port-says/


Does this mean Trump gets the Nobel Peace Prize for initiating the peace process between North and South Korea?

Yeah I didn't think so.


Maybe they could take back the one they gave to Obama for doing nothing and give it to Trump for his work pushing for denuclearizing North Korea.

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Re: Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 28 Apr 2018, 12:59:16

Plantagenet wrote:
Cog wrote:
onlooker wrote:This seems to be more than just political gesturing.
North and South Korea to officially end war after 65 years, new report says

https://americanmilitarynews.com/2018/0 ... port-says/


Does this mean Trump gets the Nobel Peace Prize for initiating the peace process between North and South Korea?

Yeah I didn't think so.


Maybe they could take back the one they gave to Obama for doing nothing and give it to Trump for his work pushing for denuclearizing North Korea.

Cheers!

Yeah, I can just see every NYT reader lining up and demanding that. :roll:
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 28 Apr 2018, 16:29:35

I remember I was living in Switzerland in 1989 when the german wall fell. It took everyone by total surprise, a critical mass of dysfunction finally broke the paradigm that held that wall in place for 40 years.

That could very well be what we are now seeing in Korea. The shift mainly comes from within although the surrounding geo-politics can influence this and act like a catalyst. America as a global power has an influence but we should not forget the dynamics are mainly internal to the Korean people.

How does this relate to the greater themes of human overshoot we discuss here on this site. We often see our cultural orientation to be dysfunctional regarding the upcoming requirements in adapting to constraints. What the examples of germany and maybe Korea show us is that things go along quite a long ways into dysfunctional territory and then a critical mass is reached and then things can shift fast.

As much as we recognize North Korea as being a dysfunctional state the whole global economic system as regards to ecological sustainability can be argued to be at least equally dysfunctional.
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Re: Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby onlooker » Sat 28 Apr 2018, 17:18:15

Yes, both natural and man made systems especially ones very interrelated seem to experience cascading failures which can happen very abruptly. In Human Systems, we can say people are unpredictable and yet we have a robust accumulated knowledge of predictable human behavior. Group dynamics seems to be the commmon denominator in creating an impending rapid change in sentiments and responses. This relates to the consequences to Overshoot and our responses to it. For instance at what point will coastal developments cease to be coveted and rather avoided because of SLR.
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Re: Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 28 Apr 2018, 17:25:27

It strikes me such an agreement would be very much in Kim’s favor. I’m assuming SK needs nukes (assuming they are US nukes) to keep NK in line. I’m assuming NKs conventional forces are much larger than SKs.

Anyone verify that guess?
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Re: Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 28 Apr 2018, 18:22:28

Newfie wrote:It strikes me such an agreement would be very much in Kim’s favor. I’m assuming SK needs nukes (assuming they are US nukes) to keep NK in line. I’m assuming NKs conventional forces are much larger than SKs.

Anyone verify that guess?


Of course Kim and the citizens of North Korea will be the primary beneficiaries but not without immense growing pains. When you live under such draconian authoritarian communism a la North Korea the opening up to a more open society leaves many of the citizens feeling overwhelmed. You have to imagine how regimented their socialization has been.

South Korea will have economic growth as a few decades of infrastructure requirements will follow. And of course a larger domestic market in the end. Both sides will benefit. They may truly disarm their nuclear capabilities. Japan is pacified, China wouldn't represent any real threat. It could all transition relatively painlessly. Or not. North Korea remains a big wild card, the small elite guard in power around Kim will lose their tight grip and they will become obsolete if the country opens up.

I think the german comparison is not completely valid. East Germans were hunkering for an opening to the west. I don't see much evidence of North Koreans demanding freedoms. From the outside looking in the citizens of North Korea seem quite effectively socialized to the current regime.

Does anyone have evidence to the contrary?
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Re: Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby Cog » Sun 29 Apr 2018, 09:28:56

What was going on in North Korean TV while this historic meeting was going on? Nothing to do with this summit. Kim is never shown live except for the military day parades that they have which are highly scripted. The deal is nothing can ever be shown on North Korean TV which might show Der Leader in a bad light. Same deal with the North Korean participation in the Olympics. None of that was broadcast live because something embarrassing to the regime might have been shown.

Let's not forget and that just a few months ago Kim was calling for the destruction of the USA and the puppet regime in South Korea. He has his brother killed by nerve agent. He has executed various relatives that he thought might oppose his power.

The difference is that if he tries to play Trump like him and his fathers have played other US presidents, it won't turn out well for him. Kim can not truly open up North Korea, in the information sense, since he and his family have been lying to the people for longer than I have been alive. In the world of North Korea, they portray the West as living in poverty and drinking snow coffee and eating birds that fall from trees.

Whatever Kim's game is, he desires above all remaining in power. Because he knows what happens to dictators who are removed from power.

Ibon said, "From the outside looking in the citizens of North Korea seem quite effectively socialized to the current regime. "

I'm not sure what that means exactly but I do know from the tales of North Korean defectors that entire families are sentenced to death or extended stays in labor camps for any criticism of the regime or of Kim in particular. Socialized? More like petrified.
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Re: Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 29 Apr 2018, 11:22:58

Whatever Kim's game is, he desires above all remaining in power. Because he knows what happens to dictators who are removed from power.

Sounds like he is looking to cut a deal. Smart. As for what Ibon said, I fully agree. The poor people of N. Korea have been victimized by this cruel regime. Nevertheless, it is precisely by being incorporated into S. Korea that their nightmare wil end even if the transition will be bewildering and uncomfortable for them. My wife showed me a video of South Koreans crying. Very touching. And the reunification of long separated families will be very moving. Let us hope Kim is sincere and all this truly does transpire for the sake of all the Korean people.
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Re: Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby Cog » Sun 29 Apr 2018, 12:27:28

There can be no reunification with Kim and his military state at the helm. If you opened the border between the two Korea's and let the Northern Koreans see what the world really looks like, not a single North Korean would stay there. Kim is never going to permit a reunification or democracy as we know it as long as he lives. If the people in North Korea were truly freed, the first thing that would happen is Kim's execution along with not a few Party members to follow.

If we get Kim to give up his nuclear, chemical, and biological weaponry we might have to consider that a win for now.
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Re: Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 29 Apr 2018, 12:46:08

This Could Be The Real Reason North Korea Halted Nuclear Testing And It’s Terrifying
This Could Be The Real Reason North Korea Halted Nuclear Testing And It’s Terrifying thumbnail
The mountain above North Korea’s main nuclear test site Punggye-ri has likely collapsed following a nuclear test last fall, sparking concerns about radioactive fallout and environmental catastrophes, according to geologists at the University of Science and Technology of China.

http://www.iflscience.com/policy/this-c ... errifying/
So maybe this could explain some of what is going on. Kim wanting the world to help with a nuclear disaster within N.KOREA
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Re: Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 29 Apr 2018, 14:32:03

Cog wrote:Ibon said, "From the outside looking in the citizens of North Korea seem quite effectively socialized to the current regime. "

I'm not sure what that means exactly but I do know from the tales of North Korean defectors that entire families are sentenced to death or extended stays in labor camps for any criticism of the regime or of Kim in particular. Socialized? More like petrified.


I meant pretty much what you said. The North Korean people are socialized to be obedient to a system that will execute them if the obedience is not unconditional. They have become socialized to be vigilant in their obedience and yes they are petrified. This is exactly why the culture will be overwhelmed initially by any opening up and any increase in freedoms.

On the other hand just like things can be intractable for decades and then shift on a dime like we saw in Germany, the Korean Peninsula could surprise us with a possible major reconciliation happening. I see it as just as possible though for Kim to back track. He has to have read his history especially similar dictators like for example Nicolae Ceaușescu of Romania and what the citizens there did to their leader once the cat was out of the bag.
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Re: Two Korea's peace overture

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 02 May 2018, 19:26:15

If humans were any good at learning history we would not have the history we do. And, despite appearances to the contrary, Kim appears human, mostly.
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