[Ibon]

EU wrote: "Could you explain it for me better?
I do not understand this process.
From what I know, heat transfer from surface layer of ocean to deep water is a very slow process."

currents

Interesting to consider how inter related terrestrial climate is in how it influences marine environments. Every dry season in Central America brings the arrival of the Papagayo Winds. Due to pressure differences between the atlantic and pacific strong winds move westward over the mountain passes sometimes with gusts almost hurricane strength. These winds end up pushing coastal waters out to sea and this results in a circulating current of deep cold oxygen rich waters moving up to the surface. This is one of the reasons the Pacific fisheries is so abundant here in Panama and Costa Rica.

If climate change would alter those winds the pacific fisheries would decline.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Papagayo_Jet

[Plantagenet]

Interesting to consider how inter related terrestrial climate is in how it influences marine environments. Every dry season in Central America brings the arrival of the Papagayo Winds. Due to pressure differences between the atlantic and pacific strong winds move westward over the mountain passes sometimes with gusts almost hurricane strength. These winds end up pushing coastal waters out to sea and this results in a circulating current of deep cold oxygen rich waters moving up to the surface. This is one of the reasons the Pacific fisheries is so abundant here in Panama and Costa Rica.

If climate change would alter those winds the pacific fisheries would decline.

Its the opposite up here in Alaska. The ocean temperatures around Alaska strongly influence our terrestrial climate.

Right now the oceans all around Alaska are much warmer then normal. Its part of the "blob" of warm water in the eastern Pacific. Having warmer then usual water around Alaska means the sea ice in the Bering Sea doesn't form until late...maybe not until mid-November. And even in the Arctic Ocean we've got maybe 500 miles of ocean along the north coast of Alaska where until recently we had sea ice almost right up on the coast all summer. Until the sea ice forms, Alaska is just a big peninsula sticking out into the ocean and the temperatures we are seeing right now are waaaaaaaay above normal. We've still got forest fires burning, which is unheard of, the days are sunny are pleasant, and the thermometer is supposed to hit 70 this week.


The "blob" is back....and the oceans around Alaska are warmer then ever....

[Newfie]

Ibon,

Apparently the sage advice for sailing that coast is to keep one foot on the shore OR stay 100 miles off shore, because of these compression zones you mention.

[asg70]

A pretty decent article in Atlantic acknowledging run away warming.
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/cultu ... pretending

IMO it is full of muddled thinking for example

In this respect, any movement toward a more just and civil society can now be considered a meaningful climate action.

Yep. It's an ideological trojan-horse. It's also part of the same sort of magical thinking that the transition-town movement engages in. When the going gets rough, people are far more likely to fight than to work together. This will especially be true in the case of wave upon wave of climate refugees. Once people really register that we're on a downward spiral with starvation as the endpoint you won't see anything other than lifeboat ethics. Compassion and generosity are a luxury of prosperity/surplus and therefore its days are numbered.

gender and racial equality

The SJW woke era that we're in now is a sign of peak prosperity as it is a fixation on the very top of maslow's hierarchy of needs. Nobody's going to give a rat's ass about gender pronouns or unisex bathrooms or female Thor and black Little Mermaids when there isn't enough food to go around. Part of dealing with these issues is to recognize the above and focus on essentials of survival rather than protecting fragile snowflake safe-spaces.

[EnergyUnlimited]

Yep. It's an ideological trojan-horse. It's also part of the same sort of magical thinking that the transition-town movement engages in. When the going gets rough, people are far more likely to fight than to work together. This will especially be true in the case of wave upon wave of climate refugees. Once people really register that we're on a downward spiral with starvation as the endpoint you won't see anything other than lifeboat ethics. Compassion and generosity are a luxury of prosperity/surplus and therefore its days are numbered.

This is all true with one important exception.
White race indulged in political correctness, glutony and decadence will commit suicide and surrender its land and women to invaders, its wealth to banksters and its asses to gays.

The SJW woke era that we're in now is a sign of peak prosperity as it is a fixation on the very top of maslow's hierarchy of needs. Nobody's going to give a rat's ass about gender pronouns or unisex bathrooms or female Thor and black Little Mermaids when there isn't enough food to go around. Part of dealing with these issues is to recognize the above and focus on essentials of survival rather than protecting fragile snowflake safe-spaces.

You are wrong.
You do not understand concept of *system inertia*.
My bet is that before SJW mindset is changed into something useful and retarded generations of Millenials and their kids are replaced by more resourceful, physically fitter and war worthy peoples, white race will be a done deal.
I am over 50.
Few weeks ago I went to street argument with 2 superficially strong looking guys in their 20-ties.
Both crushed without producing meaningful resistence. No strenght, no stamina, no resolve, no perseverance in fight. Just tatooed muscles pumped up for show.
Their only strenght was in mouth. Shame on them. And I am by no means a strongman.
Our sons are not soldiers.
They are c**ts.

[dissident]

It does not matter what future generations and current children will do. They are royally screwed since the "more sober" generations drank the koolaid that the planet is an infinite resource pool and pollution toilet. Now those chickens are coming home to roost in rapidly increasing numbers. No amount of physical and mental fortitude is going to save humanity. A totally exogenous reset is coming. The survivors are going to have to basically start from scratch.

[Ibon]

Their only strenght was in mouth. .

This line struck me as highly relevant.

Living in a rural agrarian frontier location we are still in communion with folks who are actively farming with techniques where physical labor is still required, doing construction mixing cement with a shovel in a wheel barrow, processing blocks of wood with a chain saw. Being out of doors all day long in their work when we invite them for lunch they pile on the food of rice and beans and fried bananas with some fatty fried pork and ask for seconds because their bodies are asking for the calories to replace what they burned during the morning.

The one muscle you don't see these folks using very much is their mouth muscle. These are mountain folks of few words. Urban visitors who come here, cerebral birdwatchers and such, may come to the conclusion that these folks aren't well learned and don't have much to say. They confuse their silence with ignorance.

I don't know how many times during the past 10 years of living here that after a lunch with our rural staff and neighbors, a conversation would start, for example, how the young generation are addicted to their cell phones, and this would lead to an in depth analysis and wander to the state of the world and how out of balance things are. Suddenly these rural folks of few words reveal their deeper thoughts and I don't know how many times I have been amazed at the level of awareness and intelligence that these conversations generate. You know, the guy mixing cement in a wheel barrow all morning long, his clothes with holes and stained gray with splashes of cement, gnarly callous hands, expressing his dismay at the state of the world and how his own children have wandered off to Panama City leaving behind this rural life.

What you notice is that these folks are not angry. They may be dismayed, but they are not full of rage. They may be voting for the conservative or liberal party here in Panama during elections but they are still on speaking terms and good friends with others who vote the opposite party. Interesting.

The point I am making with this is that the folks most locked into the political polarity, the most outraged, the ones barking the loudest, whether it is someone on the left virtue signalling or someone on the right spewing anti immigrant hatred, what they both have deeply in common is a lack of physical work, a lack of exercise. An overexposure to the constant drone of the media and social media.

I am not finished. Many of you guys here on this site are all part of that larger tribe of under exercised, flabby, over cerebral, over stimulated neurologically with cyber bullshit, overly exposed to media, overly saturated with the latest outrageous thing Trump has done or outraged over the latest transgender genital surgery.

If it isn't the mouth muscle then it is the digital fingers typing away at how we are fast heading toward the apocalypse.

I do it also, most mornings. But I close this laptop and go out the door to an immense wilderness and work outdoors for the rest of the day. Come back in the evening to touch base again and see who responded here or who has something interesting to add. Between my posts are long hours outside working in the greenhouse, walking the trails, digging holes or whatever.

I have to sign off now and go outside. Just take one point from this long rant.

THOSE BARKING THE LOUDEST AND MOST POLARIZED AND MOST ANGRY AND OUTRAGED ARE THOSE WHO ARE NOT MOVING THEIR BODIES, NOT SPENDING TIME OUT DOORS, ARE OVERLY SATURATED WITH THE MEDIA AND THE NEWS.

Many of you here on this site.

It's strange, I always notice when I over saturate myself with how fucked up everything is that the world doesn't quite seem so bleak after hiking 4 miles in the wilderness.

Do you guys realize how much of your world view is skewed and warped because of how little you move your bodies and how little you spend in the wide open spaces.... myopic and overly focused on these fucked up digital screens.

Carry on.

[asg70]

There is a life-stages aspect of this.

I think politics is the domain of young adults just starting out in life (i.e. SJWs) and older adults but it's those in the prime of life who are more self-oriented insofar as getting things done.

Whether you're laying bricks or apprenticing as a stock-broker, you're more concerned with building your career than what's happening around the world.

This is also why politicians tend to skew older, because it's only after you've been to the mountaintop and back can you begin to focus on larger issues.

Where things have maybe changed of late is that the more people slack off, where they are in boring careers that don't stimulate them, the mind wanders. So the "prime years" have sort of folded inward. The under-employed in their mid to late 20s have a lot of time to kill.

That being said, tending your own garden, while good for the psyche, is almost a perfect description of tragedy of the commons.

We NEED people to think more holistically, more about system-theory. Those noble salt of the earth in Panama aren't doing it, and even if they're not living 1st world lifestyles, they still do their small part to maintain BAU. So there's no reason to glamorize this as it leads to us simply fumbling forward without being able to see 2" in front of our faces. That is a shocking waste of human potential.

[Ibon]

We NEED people to think more holistically, more about system-theory. Those noble salt of the earth in Panama aren't doing it, and even if they're not living 1st world lifestyles, they still do their small part to maintain BAU. So there's no reason to glamorize this as it leads to us simply fumbling forward without being able to see 2" in front of our faces. That is a shocking waste of human potential.

It's less about glamorizing them and more to point out that they are not polarized and not angry.
They will tend to tow the line with where BAU is going so yes they are not representing any solution. Their children anyway are not following their footsteps, they are joining the cyber parade!

Where this is highly relevant and if you want to see any holistic thinking then we have to get folks moving more, physically engaged. Not on their fucking computers. That is what these rural folks are telling me anyway.

I believe we will see zero, zilch, no movement until the house of cards falls and people are forced to return to a way powered down lifestyle.

Yeah, those transgenders are not going to be thinking about mutilating their genitals when the going gets tough. Those MAGA hats are going to look pretty faded when stoking grievances are coming up empty in terms of providing any real meaningful changes. What we are seeing now is the rage and anger of bored opulence. Folks feeling things are not going well and sensing the corruption and decadence of death of a dying paradigm but not yet hurting. And spending way too much fucking time tethered to digital media and media in general.

In other words, Does it hurt yet?

Consequences are the portal through which survivors will grow a spine and those that don't will perish.

Anyone really believe that this is not the direction we are heading?

I agree with EU on this point.

P.S. I am still on the computer mid day today.... booking keeping day, once a month.... I hate it but one has to render into Caesar etc. .........

[Plantagenet]

Its time to start planning our retreat from the coasts now

we-should-retreat-from-coastal-cities-now

Some coastal cities like New York and Miami are raising their street levels and building higher seawalls in attempt to keep the sea water out. This is futile and a waste of resources.

Its time to start planning our retreat from the coasts now. Rather then wasting money trying to save our existing coastal cities, we'd be smarter to be planning our retreat from all low-lying coastal areas. Then we need to identify safe areas where all the climate refugees can go, and we need to build enough housing for them there.

Cheers!

[Ibon]

Its time to start planning our retreat from the coasts now

we-should-retreat-from-coastal-cities-now

Some coastal cities like New York and Miami are raising their street levels and building higher seawalls in attempt to keep the sea water out. This is futile and a waste of resources.

Its time to start planning our retreat from the coasts now. Rather then wasting money trying to save our existing coastal cities, we'd be smarter to be planning our retreat from all low-lying coastal areas. Then we need to identify safe areas where all the climate refugees can go, and we need to build enough housing for them there.

Cheers!

It's also time to sell your coastal property ahead of the curve. We close Oct 1 on our last property in Florida. I feel like we are exiting at a good time. Soon coastal properties are going to go down.

You cant get a mortgage without hurricane insurance.

How many are going to be able to afford hurricane insurance that will rise to 5 figures along with property taxes etc. Your talking fixed costs of property tax and insurance well over $ 20k a year.

Good luck.

Imagine if Dorian would have made a major hit in the metropolitan area of Dade/Broward/Palm Beach County. Imagine the implication for insurance rates.

We are very close to a tipping point on the affordability of coastal properties. We are one major catastrophic storm away actually.

[jedrider]

Retreat! No, put people in harms way. How many people died in the Bahamas? Population reduction has a long way to go. Admittedly, it's not always pleasant. Who will even take the survivors now? There goes my dream of retiring on a tropical island or, maybe, not. Cheap land.

[Plantagenet]

Retreat! No, put people in harms way.

They are already there. Every inch of coastline just about everywhere warm is crowded with a gazillion people.

How many people died in the Bahamas? Population reduction has a long way to go..... Who will even take the survivors now?

The Ds. They no longer believe its a crime to cross the US border and they believe the US has an infinite capacity to absorb more immigrants.

There goes my dream of retiring on a tropical island or, maybe, not. Cheap land.

You are 100% right. This is the chance of a lifetime to buy some cheap land.

Timing is everything. Go to Bermuda right now and you'll be able to find deals on waterfront property. And there is lots of recycled wood lying around that you can use to build your house.


Its hard to know which beachfront lot to buy.....

Good Luck!

[Newfie]

Ibon,

Back to the physical exercise bit, I’m wondering if there is even more to it. When you exercise, AKA WORK, as in actually moving weight from place to place, it focus your mind in the present and releases hormones that help sooth you.

Perhaps part of our psychosis is that far too many first worldwide have a lot of built up tension due to physical inactivity.

I’m gonna double post this into the Progressive Mental Disease thread and please respond there if you do.

[jedrider]

Its hard to know which beachfront lot to buy.....

That's where all the immigrant laborers lived. Many dead will not even be counted according to Paul Beckwith. It is an area purposely meant to be disposable.

[dohboi]

In addition to the risk of methane emissions from metastable gas hydrates in intrapermafrost regions of Arctic continental shelves cited in my last post; the linked reference reminds us of the growing carbon emissions from Arctic thermokarst lakes, in the coming decades (with continued warming):

S. Serikova et al. (2019), "High carbon emissions from thermokarst lakes of Western Siberia", Nature Communications, 10, Article number: 1552, DOI: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-019-09592-1

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-019-09592-1

Abstract: "The Western Siberia Lowland (WSL), the world’s largest permafrost peatland, is of importance for understanding the high-latitude carbon (C) cycle and its response to climate change. Warming temperatures increase permafrost thaw and production of greenhouse gases. Also, permafrost thaw leads to the formation of lakes which are hotspots for atmospheric C emissions. Although lakes occupy ~6% of WSL, lake C emissions from WSL remain poorly quantified. Here we show high C emissions from lakes across all permafrost zones of WSL. The C emissions were especially high in shoulder seasons and in colder permafrost-rich regions. The total C emission from permafrost-affected lakes of WSL equals ~12 ± 2.6 Tg C yr−1 and is 2-times greater than region’s C export to the Arctic coast. The results show that C emission from WSL lakes is a significant component in the high-latitude C cycle, but also suggest that C emission may decrease with warming."

(thanks to aslr at asif for this)

[Newfie]

More bigger methane leaks found.

https://www.newsweek.com/methane-boilin ... ia-1463766

[dohboi]

Climate feedbacks in the Earth system and prospects for their evaluation

https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-10-379-2019

"...increased heating and freshening at the ocean surface in the high latitudes will enhance the stability of the water column at the deep-water formation sites, resulting in positive feedback due to weaker mixing of excess heat downward..."

[onlooker]

Pass the point of no return ?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/ ... utType=amp

[Newfie]

Paywall. But no matter I think we have passed that point a looong time ago. Not because of the physical processes but because of our inability to react to it.

It’s not gonna kill us this century, but it will sure make life miserable in the future.