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ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 09:01:00

Friends of ASPO-USA (like me!) received this email yesterday. Not a surprise really, the signs of it were all over the website, where Jan's linkedin profile says he is employed, the news quality and auto generated nature of their Facebook page, and all of this is AFTER their absolute credibility destroying moment back in 2011 in Washington where they proudly demonstrated that their zealotry was so complete that they couldn't even be bothered to see what was happening around them.

ASPO-USA Received Jan 24, 2018 wrote:
Dear Friends of ASPO-USA,

It is with regret that we write you. The many years we labored together to inform the public and policymakers about the threat of peak oil brought the idea from obscurity into general usage. Unfortunately, short-sighted thinking has combined with a well-funded public relations pushback to undermine prudent action regarding our energy future.

Support of and interest in the activities of ASPO-USA have now dwindled to the point that we can no longer fund basic operations, and we have no reason to believe this will change. Accordingly, the board of directors has voted for an orderly shutdown of ASPO-USA.

Fortunately, Post Carbon Institute (PCI) has agreed to continue support of Peak Oil News & Review. If you are receiving either or both, your subscription will continue without interruption during this transition. PCI has also agreed to maintain the ASPO-USA website as an archive so that people may continue to access the valuable information and commentary on it.

If you’d like to find out more about PCI, you may wish to visit the organization’s website where you can sign up for regular communications. As many of you may know, PCI maintains the Resilience website (formerly Energy Bulletin) and publishes an annual reality check on shale gas and tight oil production in the United States.

For those who have been supporting us through regular automatic contributions, we’ve already terminated those. With what remains in our coffers we will pay our vendors, make the necessary government filings, and then officially cease operations.

We do not for a second believe that the oil crises of our age are over. In fact, the International Energy Agency is already warning about oil price spikes by 2020. If this happens, then perhaps many of us will find a new receptivity to discussions about energy limits, and we will be well-prepared for such discussions in part because of our affiliation with ASPO-USA.

We thank all of you for your support through the years in the form of financial, technical and informational contributions. We wish you every success in your endeavors including those that help keep the discussion of limits alive—until circumstances can make the public and policymakers receptive once again.

With gratitude,

Kurt Cobb, Vice President and Chair of the Executive Committee

Jan Lars Mueller, Executive Director
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Cog » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 09:05:23

LOL
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby GHung » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 10:34:07

Cog wrote:LOL


Right. We'll see who laughs last and loudest.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Cog » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 10:46:42

GHung wrote:
Cog wrote:LOL


Right. We'll see who laughs last and loudest.


Fast crashers are always entertaining.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 11:22:23

I started checking g out peak oil sites a few years ago out of curiosity. This curiosity was sparked primarily by wondering how all the data, the information I was seeing regarding the "Shale Revolution" was not having much receptivity, much influence on the thinking of peak oil folks.

After the Bakken experience was replicated in the Niobrara and Eagle Ford, it seemed incontrovertible that vast amounts of hydrocarbons could and would be recovered on a global scale.

Post Carbon Institute. David Hughes.
Who here has read his Drilling Deeper? The work so often referred to by sympathetic believers?
My guess is virtually no one.
Shame, because even if a serious student did not want to go through all 300+ pages, just a serious, brief read of the short executive summary should set off alarms in the PO community.
This contains Mr. Hughes' complete dismissal of the Permian as a substantive source of future hydrocarbons.
Really, now.

This is why you peak oil folks cannot be taken seriously as your predictions, assumptions, data derived positions have been found so wanting.

We, all of us, wish for a better tomorrow for our progeny.
We, all of us, have varying views on what are optimal paths to achieve a healthier, sustainable future.

Having a shared basis of reality regarding amounts of existing and recoverable hydrocarbons is a necessary prerequisite to implementing best practices going forward.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby tita » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 11:29:33

Sounds like a victory for you. But indeed, ASPO died in 2011-2012... And with it, most of the mainstream peak oil debate, as figures of authority that formed the ASPO core were no more there. Their prediction failed.

Could we have a resurrection in a few years? Maybe... As long as oil is used as a major source of energy for the global economy, the concerns about its availability will remain. But talking about peak oil the same way ASPO did will be laughed at...

But the mainstream idea now is that we will get away from oil consumption with the help of renewable energy, which will lead to another kind of peak oil... the peak oil demand. Oil is seen as an energy of the past, the quicker we get rid of it the better. Campbell, Aleklett or Lahèrre appears like old people of the past. The new face of the old website of ASPO global is speaking by itself:
https://www.peakoil.net/

I still think that we are quite not finished with oil... And as long the correlation between oil consumption and growth is there, I'll think that we are not safe from economic downturn from oil supply disruption.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Sys1 » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 12:08:34

Tita : You don't understand peak oil.
1) We have passed peak conventional oil around 2007, the reason why we experimented the worst economic crisis since 1929.
2) Total oil consumption is still increasing, so in NO WAY we need or want less oil.
3) Total Peak oil will hit around 2020. Oil prices are currectly increasing fast while inventories are going south. As soon as FED will increase interest rates to cool down inflation, all the Ponzi scheme shit made of Facebook and Bitcoin assets will collapse on your head.
4) We are heading towards a global economic crash first and then a collapse of industrial civilisation. The problem extends to global warming and depletion of rare Earth elements, fresh water, arable land, fish reserves...
5) It's impossible for business as usual to exist past this century. This claim in itself is VERY OPTIMISTIC because there are some serious chances that industrial civilisation will collapse before 2050.
6) You say "Hey! Peak oil old guys claimed we should be dead and we are not! So we won't have any problem ever!" It's not
because all doom claims did not happen that they won't happen. Since your birth, you never died. It doesn't mean you won't die ever.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 12:26:07

GHung wrote:
Cog wrote:LOL


Right. We'll see who laughs last and loudest.


We already have. Obviously. You might not remember the heady days when, in it became obvious that the US was growing oil production faster than at any time in its history, these chowderheads were proclaiming an upcoming oil energy crisis. You couldn't have timed the crumbling of their credibility any better. Nowadays, ASPO-USA has become the deniers of the past, shouting into the wind how it isn't fair, that some people could see reality and didn't pay attention to their delusional zealotry instead.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 12:31:43

coffeeguyzz wrote:I started checking g out peak oil sites a few years ago out of curiosity. This curiosity was sparked primarily by wondering how all the data, the information I was seeing regarding the "Shale Revolution" was not having much receptivity, much influence on the thinking of peak oil folks.

After the Bakken experience was replicated in the Niobrara and Eagle Ford, it seemed incontrovertible that vast amounts of hydrocarbons could and would be recovered on a global scale.

Post Carbon Institute. David Hughes.
Who here has read his Drilling Deeper? The work so often referred to by sympathetic believers?
My guess is virtually no one.


I have. Sharon's matching gibberish as well. Got myself banned from PCI for asking where the geologic basis was for his analysis, because it was pimped as "geologically based", I assume because he is a geologist, and they want to compete with real geoscience folks, like the USGS. Turns out, David doesn't do geology. He has a logic argument most of the time, his logic is bad, and he doesn't want to discuss the topic as even a scientist might, he has a target, and it doesn't matter what they say or how they do it, they are just wrong. As best I can tell he is PISSED because they never fell for the chicken little routine.

cofffeeguyzz wrote:Shame, because even if a serious student did not want to go through all 300+ pages, just a serious, brief read of the short executive summary should set off alarms in the PO community.


Having read everything peakish for a long time now, sure his work is puerile, but it says something when it is about the best the peak oilers can do in the modern era. ASPO self destructing was a given, when posting news I've bumped into some posters right here on this website noticing the slow down in activity, lack of posting, disappearing people, and that was years ago. Yesterdays admission that they failed was a given.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 12:38:49

Sys1 wrote:Tita : You don't understand peak oil.


Peak oilers don't understand OIL. Peak, trough, plateau. So tita is batting better 2 out of 3 times then Happy McPeaksters.

Sys1 wrote:1) We have passed peak conventional oil around 2007, the reason why we experimented the worst economic crisis since 1929.


Nonsense, because A) you can't describe how one oil is conventional any more than another and 2) as many here have have established, the housing crisis was the problem of the great recession.

Sys1 wrote:2) Total oil consumption is still increasing, so in NO WAY we need or want less oil.


See sig line. Geez...do you read ANYTHING posted on this site nowadays? Some of us don't even use the stuff for transport anymore, where have you been living? In a cave?

Sys1 wrote:3) Total Peak oil will hit around 2020.


Can kicker. Join other Happy McPeaksters with a dunce cap in the corner of the room.

Sys1 wrote: Oil prices are currectly increasing fast while inventories are going south.


And you thought WHAT was supposed to happen to work off the glut and low prices? Unicorns would do it?

Sys1 wrote:4) We are heading towards a global economic crash first and then a collapse of industrial civilisation. The problem extends to global warming and depletion of rare Earth elements, fresh water, arable land, fish reserves...
5) It's impossible for business as usual to exist past this century. This claim in itself is VERY OPTIMISTIC because there are some serious chances that industrial civilisation will collapse before 2050.
6) You say "Hey! Peak oil old guys claimed we should be dead and we are not! So we won't have any problem ever!" It's not
because all doom claims did not happen that they won't happen. Since your birth, you never died. It doesn't mean you won't die ever.


4-5-6 are generic econo-crash recycled a dozen times heard it before and it didn't happen then talking points from those still smarting from having gotten peak oil so wrong.

Happy McDoomsters have moved on to other Rapture, triggers, I'll give you that one.

Image
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 12:50:47

"well-funded public relations pushback to undermine prudent action regarding our energy future."

They could have just said "hey, peak oil doom is farther off than we thought. Time to hit the snooze button" but no, they have to suggest that they were killed by a conspiracy.

Image

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby GHung » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 12:54:18

AdamB wrote:
GHung wrote:
Cog wrote:LOL


Right. We'll see who laughs last and loudest.


We already have. Obviously. You might not remember the heady days when, in it became obvious that the US was growing oil production faster than at any time in its history, these chowderheads were proclaiming an upcoming oil energy crisis. You couldn't have timed the crumbling of their credibility any better. Nowadays, ASPO-USA has become the deniers of the past, shouting into the wind how it isn't fair, that some people could see reality and didn't pay attention to their delusional zealotry instead.


You haven't seen the last laugh yet. Thinking you have is just as silly as those who swore peak oil was in the past. ASPO may have been in a hurry to declare peak oil, but I've always been a peak-everything kind of guy. We may not be there yet, but I expect to get the last laugh in when you guys fade away, just as ASPO has.

Too many consumers. Not enough Planet.

Meanwhile:
'Doomsday clock' ticks closer to apocalyptic midnight
https://www.cnn.com/2018/01/25/politics ... index.html

(CNN)A panel of scientists and scholars said Thursday they believe the world is as close as it has ever been to a so-called doomsday scenario.
The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists, which has been tracking the threat posed by nuclear weapons and other technologies since the 1940s, moved the second hand forward on their Doomsday Clock forward closer to its symbolic apocalyptic midnight.
"It is with considerable concern that we set the time of the 2018 doomsday clock and offer a plea to rewind the doomsday clock," said Bulletin of Atomic Scientists President and CEO Rachel Bronson. "As of today, it is two minutes to midnight."
According to the group's report, the greatest threats to global security came from the nuclear realm.

"North Korea's nuclear weapons program made remarkable progress in 2017, increasing risks to North Korea itself, other countries in the region, and the United States," the report notes. "Hyperbolic rhetoric and provocative actions by both sides have increased the possibility of nuclear war by accident or miscalculation."


I expect we'll do ourselves in before we run out of shit to burn.

Too many assholes. Not enough Planet.
Blessed are the Meek, for they shall inherit nothing but their Souls. - Anonymous Ghung Person
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 12:55:01

Sys1 wrote:1) We have passed peak conventional oil around 2007, the reason why we experimented the worst economic crisis since 1929.


Nope. Credit crisis.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 13:12:31

Sys1 wrote:Tita : You don't understand peak oil.
1) We have passed peak conventional oil around 2007, the reason why we experimented the worst economic crisis since 1929.

Peakers keep getting this point dead wrong. The body of credible economists (and the economi evidence) overwhelmingly attribute the 2008-2009 major recession to the real estate asset bubble and its side effects. High oil prices were just a minor side effect.

Pretending this isn't so isn't helping your case.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Yoshua » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 13:21:31

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Sys1 wrote:Tita : You don't understand peak oil.
1) We have passed peak conventional oil around 2007, the reason why we experimented the worst economic crisis since 1929.

Peakers keep getting this point dead wrong. The body of credible economists (and the economi evidence) overwhelmingly attribute the 2008-2009 major recession to the real estate asset bubble and its side effects. High oil prices were just a minor side effect.

Pretending this isn't so isn't helping your case.


Pretending that the central banks had to print $21T as of today to patch up that housing bubble...is helping your case.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 13:56:08

Yoshua wrote:Pretending that the central banks had to print $21T as of today to patch up that housing bubble...is helping your case.


Case? We're talking about the rise and fall of the Peak Oil movement. Mania/panics and fed intervention is a whole other topic.

But I am totally aware that peakers love to just lump anything negative or ominous into a bundle and call it peak oil. Doom, maybe, but not peak oil.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 14:14:36

ASPO-USA has officially peaked.

Cheers!
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 18:06:10

Yoshua wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Sys1 wrote:Tita : You don't understand peak oil.
1) We have passed peak conventional oil around 2007, the reason why we experimented the worst economic crisis since 1929.

Peakers keep getting this point dead wrong. The body of credible economists (and the economi evidence) overwhelmingly attribute the 2008-2009 major recession to the real estate asset bubble and its side effects. High oil prices were just a minor side effect.

Pretending this isn't so isn't helping your case.


Pretending that the central banks had to print $21T as of today to patch up that housing bubble...is helping your case.

More random typing without any credible citations. Congratulations once again. :roll:

But let's pretend 4 = 21, without citations, because doomers eat such nonsense up!
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 20:03:42

In reference to what Sys1 shared, there is a paper here that looks at the standard run scenario of the Limits to Growth scenario in light of real data, and reveals that the latter has been tracking predicted trends the last four decades.

The same model reveals that global economic output will peak sometime in the 2020s, followed by global population which will peak in the 2050s. The main driver is a permanent drop in resource availability (which includes oil, for which oil discoveries peaked several decades ago and oil production per capita peaked in the late 1970s) coupled with pollution levels. (What's missing is global warming, which was not yet well-known when the model was constructed.) As for population, it is expected to drop because of increasing death rates (even with rising birth rates), and logically driven by increasing poverty coupled with a lack of resources.

Given the point that businesses like HSBC, Lloyd's, and others (including military and science organizations) have been making similar points and connecting the dots between peak oil, global warming, limits to growth, and financial crises, then it is obvious that one does not have to rely on only one group for information on peak oil, that peak oil is part of a growing set of global crises, and that problems will involve both fast crashes (as seen in many countries collapsing due to financial crises, and others falling apart due to combinations of the effects of peak oil, droughts, high food prices and unemployment, and even military intervention) and slow ones (as seen in increasing levels of credit needed to counter the effects of diminishing returns).
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: ASPO-USA IMPLODES!!

Unread postby dissident » Thu 25 Jan 2018, 20:51:13

asg70 wrote:
Sys1 wrote:1) We have passed peak conventional oil around 2007, the reason why we experimented the worst economic crisis since 1929.


Nope. Credit crisis.


So where are all the other such credit crises over the last 70 years? As if a credit crisis is a stand-alone phenomenon.

High gasoline prices killed off the ex-urban development in the USA. It has not recovered. This housing bubble bursting around 2008 was one of the prime "causes" of your "credit crisis".
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