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How Will Fossil Fuels Fare In 2040?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

How Will Fossil Fuels Fare In 2040?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 17:24:30


Fossil fuels have been the dominant source of energy for global economic prosperity for over 150 years. In 2016, fossil fuels overwhelmingly account for over 85 percent in global total primary energy consumption (TPEC)—but what role will they play in 2040 and beyond? There’s an ongoing debate among various agencies, researchers and academia whether the role of fossil fuels will significantly diminish. The innovation in fuel cells, electric vehicles and the significant decline in cost of solar and wind power are fossil fuels’ greatest challenges. How much of fossil fuels’ share will be taken by renewable sources by 2040, and is it substantial enough to undermine the role of oil and gas industry, or is there no need to worry? The oil industry is transforming due to the auto industry’s structural shift from internal combustion engine (ICEs) to electric vehicles (EVs), reducing global


How Will Fossil Fuels Fare In 2040?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: How Will Fossil Fuels Fare In 2040?

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 11:16:28

Simple, once the politicians stop claiming they give a hoot about global warming we will go back to using the cheapest fossil fuel like there is no tomorrow.

All the green dreams aside coal remains very very cheap to extract and burn.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: How Will Fossil Fuels Fare In 2040?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 16:16:26

Tanada wrote:Simple, once the politicians stop claiming they give a hoot about global warming we will go back to using the cheapest fossil fuel like there is no tomorrow.

All the green dreams aside coal remains very very cheap to extract and burn.

If necessary to keep the heat and lights on, no doubt.

But in first world countries, if Tony Seba et al is right, and green tech like solar becomes more economic than buying all your power from the power company burning coal, then maybe not, at least in first world countries.

It partly depends on how much voters scream about the worsening effects of AGW as they occur. I disagree with Seba that EV's will supplant 95%+ of ICE production by 2030 (that is way too soon). However, the idea that PV / battery systems like what Baha has will take over a major portion of the consumer power market by 2030 due purely to economics -- that's something I can see happening.

The coal jobs aren't coming back in abundance regardless (no matter what Mr. Trump claims). The technology to surface mine coal with giant machines is the economic way to do that in the vast majority of circumstances. That means pick and shovel coal jobs are things of the past. (There will be some machinery operators, but those numbers will be relatively small).
So it's not like some real world jobs politics will jump start coal.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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