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Why the prospect of ‘Peak Oil’ is hotly debated

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Why the prospect of ‘Peak Oil’ is hotly debated

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 10:32:18


The world is turning its back on oil. But how quickly? Technological advances driven by the threat of climate change could mean the world’s thirst for petroleum tops out sooner than companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. or giant producers like Saudi Arabia are banking on. “Peak oil” has been debated for decades, but today it means something very different. 1. Why is oil’s future in doubt? About 60 percent of oil is used in transportation, which is also where the biggest technological changes are emerging. The impact of electric carmakers such as Tesla Inc. could be turbocharged by advances in related fields such as self-driving vehicles and ride-hailing apps, which make it possible for people to switch from owning cars to relying on rides from more efficient fleets. The culmination of these trends could transform how people travel and prompt more


Why the prospect of ‘Peak Oil’ is hotly debated
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Why the prospect of ‘Peak Oil’ is hotly debated

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 10:32:56

Not quite the "hotly debated" angle that a typical acolyte from The Church of Peak might think.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Why the prospect of ‘Peak Oil’ is hotly debated

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 19:47:16

I can see alternative energy and technology lowering the downward cut steepness, of civilizations decline, but not stopping it.

That downward curve is real and I think we are just at the inflection point.

Too many downward drivers, peak oil may not have the huge impact.
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Re: Why the prospect of ‘Peak Oil’ is hotly debated

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 21:04:44

Newfie wrote:I can see alternative energy and technology lowering the downward cut steepness, of civilizations decline, but not stopping it.
That downward curve is real and I think we are just at the inflection point.
Too many downward drivers, peak oil may not have the huge impact.


Well said. This is the moderate and ultimately the correct viewpoint.
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Re: Why the prospect of ‘Peak Oil’ is hotly debated

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 23 Dec 2017, 21:50:11

asg70 wrote:
Newfie wrote:I can see alternative energy and technology lowering the downward cut steepness, of civilizations decline, but not stopping it.
That downward curve is real and I think we are just at the inflection point.
Too many downward drivers, peak oil may not have the huge impact.


Well said. This is the moderate and ultimately the correct viewpoint.

Well, it's certainly a reasonable idea and worth debating.

Given the way humanity behaves, it ultimately might be a race between how quickly green energy and its benefits can ramp up, vs. how badly problems like AGW worsen. The deciding factor is likely to be the overall population trend. That does NOT inspire optimism, at least soon enough to be very helpful, IMO.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Why the prospect of ‘Peak Oil’ is hotly debated

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 24 Dec 2017, 08:56:49

I can see alternative energy and technology lowering the downward cut steepness, of civilizations decline, but not stopping it.

That downward curve is real and I think we are just at the inflection point.

Too many downward drivers, peak oil may not have the huge impact.
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