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US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Discuss research and forecasts regarding hydrocarbon depletion.

US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 19 Dec 2017, 12:20:56

Average production in 1970 was 9.637 million barrels a day.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafH ... RFPUS2&f=A

Average production last week was 9.780 million barrels per day.

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_sum_sn ... _nus_w.htm

Another peak oil is dead. Long live peak oil.

The world has known this for awhile now, and the zealots...well...they will never stop singing Journey songs....
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby dcoyne78 » Tue 19 Dec 2017, 14:30:26

Peak monthly output for the US C+C was over 10 Mb/d in October and November, 1970.

The most recent monthly estimate for US C+C was for Sept 2017 at 9.48 Mb/d.

See

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby marmico » Tue 19 Dec 2017, 15:01:17

The most recent monthly estimate for US C+C was for Sept 2017 at 9.48 Mb/d.


True enough that it is not record high production. But you hang with Ronnie "Old Man Demented " Patterson and all the other "extra specials" who have been predicting peak oil ever since they were wrapped in non-disposable diapers and KSA was in natural decline.

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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 19 Dec 2017, 18:47:40

US oil production is predicted to go up by another 500,000 to 1,000,000 bbls/day next year so no matter how you slice and dice the numbers the 1970 peak is almost certainly going to be surpassed in 2017-2018.

The rapid increase in US oil production over the last several years is entirely due to TOS development in the Bakken, Eagle Ford, Permian, etc.

Now that we're on the verge of surpassing the 1970 peak, it will interesting to keep an eye on the TOS plays. At some time in the future they will inevitably peak as well, and perhaps sooner rather then later.

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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 19 Dec 2017, 21:04:24

dcoyne78 wrote:Peak monthly output for the US C+C was over 10 Mb/d in October and November, 1970.

The most recent monthly estimate for US C+C was for Sept 2017 at 9.48 Mb/d.

See

https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MCRFPUS2&f=M


I'm happy sticking with the references I provided for this little blurb. How about we give it a few more weeks, and see what happens? The far more important point being that the most popular peak oil example has now become the best example of the sine wave model of oil production, making it obvious that there is another question we must answer. How many peak oils can any particular area have?
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby tita » Tue 26 Dec 2017, 12:15:20

Indeed, even if I agree that this is too early to declare that the US production exceeded the record, we can't deny that it is probably going to happen.

But facts are facts. We can't mix them to suit our POV. Weekly estimates didn't existed in 1970, so we have to stick to monthly and annual estimates for accurate comparisons. Which is gonna take several months for the monthly record.
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 26 Dec 2017, 12:47:13

FWIW, I don't think M. King Hubbert's ideas were wrong. If technology had remained static rather than advancing at an incredible rate after digital data processing became an available tool, then I think oil production would have declined on the curve predicted by MKH. But computing enabled advances in both oil exploration and oil extraction that kept the production curve rising. I believe traditional and conventional oil production peaked in 2008 for the world - but at the Rockman is fond of reminding us, the terms traditional and conventional are fairly meaningless.

Still, that oil took millions of years to cook from the remains of ancient algaes and krill and plankton of all types that came to rest on the seabeds of oceans that have changed considerably since then. The total supply is finite and no matter what the advances in exploration and extraction, eventually we will reach the end of the age of oil. My own oft-repeated prediction is on the order of 120 years. I did NOT say "the close order of 120 years", meaning I would be surprised if it happens in less than 12 years or more than 1200 years.

I simply think that attempting to forecast the end of oil any closer than that, given the quality of the data we work with, is foolishness. Not only will exploration and extraction technology advance further at a difficult to anticipate and uneven rate, but there are extraneous factors like overpopulation, conventional warfare, and advances in renewable energy that enter into economic model prediction. Nor does the certain fact that the KSA and other major producers use anal extraction of both oil reserve data and actual oil production figures help the accuracy of such predictions.

Then there is the whole matter of will the oil production decline resemble the smooth bell curve that MKH predicted or the Seneca Cliff. I'd say the jury is still out on that, since production is still increasing. (YES, recent production has obsoleted even this chart.)
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 26 Dec 2017, 18:01:31

KaiserJeep wrote:FWIW, I don't think M. King Hubbert's ideas were wrong.


The idea that finite commodities eventually run out isn't Hubbert's idea---its general knowledge.

Hubbert's contribution was to approach this problem mathematically, and to develop simple equations which purported to be able to predict when oil would peak in the US and the world. In addition Hubbert hypothesized that once oil had "peaked" it would go into an inexorable decline, and his equation could be used to model the rate of decline.

Well....Hubbert was just plain wrong. In the US Hubbert pointed to the 1970 peak in oil production and predicted that it would thereafter decline. That hasn't happened. In fact, the US is now exceeding the 1970 peak in oil production. This falsifies Hubberts hypothesis----he did his math wrong.

But just because Hubbert's math was wrong doesn't mean that the more general concept that finite commodities eventually become depleted is wrong. At some point global oil production will go into decline because there isn't enough of the stuff to maintain the decades-long growth in oil production that has been the basis of our modern civilization. This point may come sooner then later, as conventional oil fields seem to already be in decline, and unconventional TOS production also seems to be reaching a peak in the US, with the Bakken TOS and Eagle Ford TOS going into decline a couple of years ago, and the mighty Permian Basin TOS being projected to peak in a few more years, i.e. 2020-21.

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M. King Hubbert did his math wrong----his equations didn't work and so his hypothesis has been falsified. Nonetheless global oil production will inevitably peak in the future....and perhaps fairly soon.
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 26 Dec 2017, 18:13:57

Plantagenet wrote:M. King Hubbert did his math wrong----his equations didn't work and so his hypothesis has been falsified. Nonetheless global oil production will inevitably peak in the future....and perhaps fairly soon.


Again.
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 26 Dec 2017, 18:21:16

AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:M. King Hubbert did his math wrong----his equations didn't work and so his hypothesis has been falsified. Nonetheless global oil production will inevitably peak in the future....and perhaps fairly soon.


Again.


You seemingly don't understand the math any better then M. King Hubbert did.

I'll explain it again....the fact the US oil production is higher now then in 1970 means US Oil production didn't peak in 1970.

Get it now?

CHEERS!
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby GHung » Tue 26 Dec 2017, 18:47:39

Plant wrote; "Well....Hubbert was just plain wrong. In the US Hubbert pointed to the 1970 peak in oil production and predicted that it would thereafter decline. That hasn't happened. In fact, the US is now exceeding the 1970 peak in oil production. This falsifies Hubberts hypothesis----he did his math wrong. "


.... or he had insufficient data,,, or he wasn't counting things as oil that are being counted today. The whole thing gets silly at some point.

What's clear is that some people get a big nut telling other people how wrong they are, over and over, and over again. Rather strange, that.
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 26 Dec 2017, 19:41:07

GHung wrote:
Plant wrote; "Well....Hubbert was just plain wrong. In the US Hubbert pointed to the 1970 peak in oil production and predicted that it would thereafter decline. That hasn't happened. In fact, the US is now exceeding the 1970 peak in oil production. This falsifies Hubberts hypothesis----he did his math wrong. "


.... or he had insufficient data,,, or he wasn't counting things as oil that are being counted today. The whole thing gets silly at some point.


Actually, science isn't silly. Its how humans understand the world.

M. K. Hubbert was a scientist and his peak oil hypoethesis is a scientific theory. The way we test scientific theories is to see if the predictions of the theory match the way the real world operates. In Hubbert's case, his predictions haven't panned out, i.e. Hubbert's mathematical model has been falsified. Its pretty easy to see why it has failed for the USA----we're getting much more oil from TOS then Hubbert thought was possible.

This doesn't mean that global oil production won't peak some day----it will. But Hubbert's theory clearly doesn't work as a way to predict when oil production will peak, it doesn't work to predict the rate of oil prediction at the peak, and it doesn't work to predict declines. It works pretty well for individual conventional oil fields, but it just doesn't work at all as a way to predict oil production for areas that are large enough to have very complex geology and a mix of conventional and unconventional reservoirs like the USA or the world.

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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 10:34:16

Who here knows what we were "counting' as oil in 1970 versus now? Is/was it the same thing? I dont have time atm to research this but methinks there are a few folks here who do know the answer to that question. I have my idea about that, but since I do not know the fact I wont comment further.
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby AirlinePilot » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 10:45:05

I found this.....dated 2014...seems as of that time there is some disagreement about what condensate should be, who counts what, and real numbers.....hmmmm. I wonder what we were counting in 1970?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil- ... BU20141008
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 10:53:22

Plantagenet wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:M. King Hubbert did his math wrong----his equations didn't work and so his hypothesis has been falsified. Nonetheless global oil production will inevitably peak in the future....and perhaps fairly soon.


Again.


You seemingly don't understand the math any better then M. King Hubbert did.


Yes. Marion King Hubbert and I are equally stupid.

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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 11:01:56

AirlinePilot wrote:I found this.....dated 2014...seems as of that time there is some disagreement about what condensate should be, who counts what, and real numbers.....hmmmm. I wonder what we were counting in 1970?

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil- ... BU20141008


First clarification after the table, crude oil and lease condensate lumped together.

You give me a liquid at the surface, I sell it as oil. Doesn't matter to me that it is a combination of crude oil and lease condensate (i.e. liquid hydrocarbons at standard conditions), and you can't easily "unmix" the stuff without using a refinery, and they pay me for it same as oil, therefore...it gets counted as oil.
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 20:33:15

pstarr wrote:
AirlinePilot wrote:Who here knows what we were "counting' as oil in 1970 versus now? Is/was it the same thing? I dont have time atm to research this but methinks there are a few folks here who do know the answer to that question. I have my idea about that, but since I do not know the fact I wont comment further.

We sure weren't counting 1mbpd corn liquor as petroleum liquids in 1970.


And it looks like the EIA knows better than to count it in the crude oil and lease condensate totals. Which peaked I believe. Again. What were those morons thinking a decade ago? Would any of the folks who fell for it a decade back like to educate the rest of us about how the delusional ideas of yesteryear unfolded? Was it just the lack of economists being involved, to teach Happy McPeaksters about supply response to price? What elasticity works in the supply/demand relationship? Was it because Happy McPeaksters ignored posters like Copious.Abundance and Mr Reserve when they pointed out estimates of abundance and ever growing oil production, or the looming presence and oncoming freight train presence of resource plays? Was it the charm of beat cops and violin players pretending to know things about a difficult industry involving the physical sciences, that they had zero experience in?
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 20:45:44

pstarr wrote:
AirlinePilot wrote:Who here knows what we were "counting' as oil in 1970 versus now? Is/was it the same thing? I dont have time atm to research this but methinks there are a few folks here who do know the answer to that question. I have my idea about that, but since I do not know the fact I wont comment further.

We sure weren't counting 1mbpd corn liquor as petroleum liquids in 1970. We knew better back then . . . and drank the stuff. Now it's burned in our lawn mowers.

People have turned dumb as . . . (fill in the blanks lol)


The Obama administration changed the legal definition of oil to include biofuels etc by issuing new regulations that lumped all liquid fuels together as oil.

Cheers!
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Re: US oil production exceeds US peak oil rate in 1970

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 27 Dec 2017, 20:56:55

Plantagenet wrote:
pstarr wrote:
AirlinePilot wrote:Who here knows what we were "counting' as oil in 1970 versus now? Is/was it the same thing? I dont have time atm to research this but methinks there are a few folks here who do know the answer to that question. I have my idea about that, but since I do not know the fact I wont comment further.

We sure weren't counting 1mbpd corn liquor as petroleum liquids in 1970. We knew better back then . . . and drank the stuff. Now it's burned in our lawn mowers.

People have turned dumb as . . . (fill in the blanks lol)


The Obama administration changed the legal definition of oil to include biofuels etc by issuing new regulations that lumped all liquid fuels together as oil.
Cheers!

If my car and my lawnmower don't care, how much does it matter?

Granted, I really don't like my taxes going to pay Iowa farmers to grow corn for ethanol, but at the end of the day the gasoline, diesel, asphalt, etc. produced work fine as sold to consumers and businesses, is it worth getting wound up about?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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