Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Will oil touch $100 a barrel again?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Will oil touch $100 a barrel again?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 11:26:53



This seems unlikely, both in the short and long term, and in the context of new energy sources. But there’s always politics It took the better part of a year but the production cut effected by the 14-member cartel, Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), in January is beginning to show results. Prices of the benchmark Brent grade crude have shot up by 36 per cent since the middle of this year and went within touching distance of the $65-a-barrel mark before retracing steps in the last few trading sessions. On Friday, Brent was trading in the $61-62-a-barrel range. Exactly a year ago OPEC decided to take 1.2 million barrels a day off the market through production cuts in an effort to bring down output to around 32.5 million barrels a day. The cartel persuaded the 11 non-OPEC oil-producing countries led by


Will oil touch $100 a barrel again?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4632
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Will oil touch $100 a barrel again?

Unread postby Cog » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 13:11:16

But I was assured that the price of oil was headed to $0 right here on his board. According to shorty et.al.

But to the point. Eventually as supply no longer meets demand the price will climb. $100/bbl? Sure why not. We dealt with far higher prices and came through ok. But now we do have alternatives in the pipeline(pun intended) to mitigate price rises. The coming EV's. Produce an EV in the $30k price range without government subsidy and I'm game.
User avatar
Cog
Fusion
Fusion
 
Posts: 12594
Joined: Sat 17 May 2008, 02:00:00
Location: Northern Kekistan

Re: Will oil touch $100 a barrel again?

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 13:30:03

The article reminds me of back in 2005 when Jeff Rubin who was at the time the head of research for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce predicted oil would go to $100/bbl. Everybody thought he was a crank and made some of the same arguments as made in this article. But of course, he was right. Unfortunately, Jeff also predicted in 2012 oil could go to $200 and was of course proven wrong.

$100 should be no problem if the shales start to show strain. There is still a number of big projects that remain to be commissioned offshore in various countries but those require the higher prices and take time. Peter Tertzakian recently pointed out that regardless of all hopes for EV's the world will still be consuming 90 MM/d all the way to 2040 at least. So given the right combination of OPEC in-fighting, shale drilling tailing off from it's highs and lack of new production coming onstream from discovered large fields $100/bbl should be no problem, especially given the fact that the last time oil hit $100/bbl global demand was around 90 MMB/d and last year there was one day when consumption hit 100 MMB/d averaging around 96 MM/d through the year.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6964
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Will oil touch $100 a barrel again?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 13:39:29

Cog wrote:But I was assured that the price of oil was headed to $0 right here on his board. According to shorty et.al.


You certainly were assured of a ridiculously stupid thing. Being disproven by reality as I write this, but that was all predictable. The instant you spot the purposeful misstatement of correlation and causation, presto, it is just a matter of did the author do it on purpose trying to pull a fast one, or are they just ignorant.

Cog wrote:But to the point. Eventually as supply no longer meets demand the price will climb. $100/bbl? Sure why not. We dealt with far higher prices and came through ok. But now we do have alternatives in the pipeline(pun intended) to mitigate price rises. The coming EV's. Produce an EV in the $30k price range without government subsidy and I'm game.


I would collect a $12G Leaf first, see if it fits. Range and usefulness, practicality, is a function of type of use. As Tony Seba maps out, it'll be more like 2021-2022 before the cost curve puts full blown 200 mile range EVs unsubsidized into the $21-$24G range.

I know I have been surprised by changes in range because of temperature (cold being uglier than hot), or how fast you run down the state of charge climbing a decent hill at 75mph. Of course, I have also been surprised by how much longer than expected a charge lasts if the use is <35 mph commuting in traffic.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4632
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26

Re: Will oil touch $100 a barrel again?

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 23 Nov 2017, 13:48:22

rockdoc123 wrote:The article reminds me of back in 2005 when Jeff Rubin who was at the time the head of research for Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce predicted oil would go to $100/bbl. Everybody thought he was a crank and made some of the same arguments as made in this article. But of course, he was right. Unfortunately, Jeff also predicted in 2012 oil could go to $200 and was of course proven wrong.

$100 should be no problem if the shales start to show strain.


But will it take $120-$140/bbl before companies are willing to go big with the offshore developments...hoping that the strain really is strain, and not just another flood that will destroy the price before their longer term development comes online?

I think the timing of how fast shale development can fire up, compared to longer cycle offshore development will cause some real risk adjusting heartburn in both the financial arena and E&Ps.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
AdamB
Volunteer
Volunteer
 
Posts: 4632
Joined: Mon 28 Dec 2015, 16:10:26


Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 17 guests