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PeakOil is You

Oil: The price is not right

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Oil: The price is not right

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 20 Nov 2017, 14:11:19

The market wants to trade a demand slow-down of the future, while ignoring the fundamentals of the present Until recently, 100m barrels a day of global oil-product demand seemed a distant prospect. In its World Energy Outlook , published in November 2016, the International Energy Agency's (IEA) central scenario didn't think consumers would reach this landmark before 2024. Strong recent tailwinds—particularly from China, India, the US and Europe—have, however, brought the milestone perilously close. We think it will be reached by mid-2018. The IEA isn't alone in having underestimated global demand. Take your pick from Opec, BP, ExxonMobil or any of the more oft-quoted long-term analysts: none forecast 100m b/d of demand much before 2022, with most putting its arrival between 2024 and 2026. Opec's 2016 World Oil Outlook cited 2022 as the likely first sighting of 100m b/d, and forecast average demand

Oil: The price is not right
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why:
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Re: Oil: The price is not right

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 21 Nov 2017, 03:52:35

If yahoos such as the author of this piece had a good, reliable handle on what the price of oil should/will be vs. the "incorrect" price, then instead of writing such blather, shouldn't they just make a vast fortune with oil futures?

Easy as pie -- IF they're reasonably reliable.

From the reference to the article, the author is an "oil analyst" at some "research consultancy", who are clearly hawking their data on their home page. Are these folks to be trusted any more than the thousands of "investment advice" blogs trying to sell their "insights"? (Again, if they were, they could invest on their insights instead of sell them for a few bucks, IMO).

How impressed should I be? I have known one "oil analyst". He was one of the stupider brokers at the Prudential Bache office my broker was at in the 80's. One fine day they sent him to some school for a few weeks, and now he was deemed an "oil analyst" for the firm.

He was still stupid.


The main thing I don't understand is why enough people listen to these people and apparently PAY for their insight for them to make a living? Is there really a steady supply of newer investors who simply don't know any better and have to learn the hard way?

Maybe there should be an honest living in writing a blog that says every day something like "For the love of whatever you care about -- DON'T waste money paying for advice from these clowns".

Of course, successful investors like Warren Buffett and Jack Bogle do tell us this for free, in a low key way, year after year. But I guess it's not what people chasing quick profits want to hear.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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