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America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 19:09:06


At the same time, the renewable energy sources will become more important. Despite the cautious sentiment, traders said oil prices were unlikely to fall far, largely due to supply restrictions led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russian Federation, which have helped reduce excess stockpiles. Solar power will surge globally in the coming decades, but oil demand will also continue to grow, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency. "This is why, absent any geopolitical premium, we may not have seen a "new normal" for oil prices". If US production stays at current levels, the IEA said, and a trend towards adopting electric cars accelerates, prices could stay between US$50 and US$70 a barrel until 2040. Lower prices are helping to support oil demand, and the IEA raised its projections for global consumption through


America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025
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Re: America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 19:15:18

How do you imagine US oil and gas production will soar 25%?

Where exactly will the additional oil and NG come from?

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Re: America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 14 Nov 2017, 19:32:11

Plantagenet wrote:How do you imagine US oil and gas production will soar 25%?

Where exactly will the additional oil and NG come from?

Cheers!


All the usual places I imagine, most of them stored safely underground until needed.
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Re: America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby coffeeguyzz » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 13:16:42

Plant
I've been reading many of your comments over the years and I still cannot figure you out.
By 'figure out', I simply mean I do not know if you have at least a minimal grasp of this so called Shale Revolution.

Occasionally, you seem to be aware of relevant data, and then you post outlandish- sounding comments like the one above ... "where will the additional oil and NG come from"?
If you are ignorant of the qualified estimates regarding areas such as the Bakken, multiple Permian plays, Mancos, Haynesville/Bossier, Marcellus/Utica, fine.
We are all of us ignorant of a great many things in this world which could, hopefully, provide opportunities to learn.

If, in fact, you are an acolyte of Mr. Short, Pisstar, that Steve guy who just posted another in a VERY lengthy list of inaccurate analysis, great.

Please continue to embrace both your ignorance and unwarranted sarcasm as those of us who seriously study this important topic will know to relegate your opinions down there with the unbalanced Sleepless One.
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Re: America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 13:29:05

coffeeguyzz wrote: you post outlandish- sounding comments like the one above ... "where will the additional oil and NG come from"?


I used to work for an oil major in their exploration department. Figuring out where additional oil and NG production can come from is not "outlandish"---its a central part of the energy biz, with literally billions of dollars being spent on this question by oil companies.

coffeeguyzz wrote:
If you are ignorant of the qualified estimates regarding areas such as the Bakken, multiple Permian plays, Mancos, Haynesville/Bossier, Marcellus/Utica, fine.


Obviously you are the person who is ignorant. Here's why I say that:

(1) I've started threads on that very topic and posted many many times at this site about the estimates of the reserves of all those plays. Try reading some of the threads here before posting such nonsense.

(2) You don't even understand the concept of Peak Oil. The peak oil issue isn't about total amount of oil reserves, but about the RATE at which these reserves can be produced.

Take the Permian in Texas for instance. Reserves are estimated to be about 60-70 BILLION barrels---but the rate at which these can be produced are limited by currently technology. Some industry insiders are suggesting the Permian will peak ca. 2020. In fact, I recently started a thread on this very topic. I invite you post in this thread once you understand that Peak Oil isn't about total reserves, but about the RATE of oil production

Get it now?

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Re: America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby GHung » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 13:38:54

So the article posits that the US will be producing 11 - 12 mmbd, significantly more than it has ever produced, even as demand goes flat or drops?

Color me skeptical.
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Re: America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 14:59:25

GHung wrote:So the article posits that the US will be producing 11 - 12 mmbd, significantly more than it has ever produced, even as demand goes flat or drops?

Color me skeptical.

And what is your source for global oil demand dropping by 2025? Credible sources like the EIA and IEA that use actual math and science are talking about higher demand in 2030 or even 2040, as the third world grows apace -- despite conservation, technology improvements, and alternative energy sources in the first world.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby GHung » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 15:11:46

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
GHung wrote:So the article posits that the US will be producing 11 - 12 mmbd, significantly more than it has ever produced, even as demand goes flat or drops?

Color me skeptical.

And what is your source for global oil demand dropping by 2025? Credible sources like the EIA and IEA that use actual math and science are talking about higher demand in 2030 or even 2040, as the third world grows apace -- despite conservation, technology improvements, and alternative energy sources in the first world.


It was alluded to in the article:

In a monthly report, the Paris-based body said it had revised down its demand forecasts for both this year and next by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d).

Fuel efficiency and rising vehicle electrification will bring a peak in oil used for passenger vehicles, even with a doubling of the auto fleet to two-billion vehicles.

Christopher Kuplen, BofAML's Research Analyst, argues that since 55 per cent of global oil is consumed in transportation, of which more than half by passenger vehicles, the demand for oil would eventually fall.

Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, was quoted as saying that the adoption of EVs could lead to global peak oil demand as soon as 2023, which will result in oil prices crashing to $10.
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Re: America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 15:53:16

P - "How do you imagine US oil and gas production will soar 25%?"' Easy: $100/bbl for oil for the next 7 years.

"Where exactly will the additional oil and NG come from?" Easy answer again: all those trends that are not economical to drill at the current price of oil.

So easy to answer general questions with non-specific general answers. Ask me some more...I'm on a roll. LOL.
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Re: America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 16:07:56

ROCKMAN wrote:$100/bbl for oil for the next 7 years...... Ask me some more...I'm on a roll. LOL.


OK.

When exactly will oil reach the $100/bbl price you are predicting?

Back here in the real world oil prices are nowhere near that level.

wall-street-falls-as-energy-tracks-oil-lower

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Re: America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 16:28:27

GHung wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:And what is your source for global oil demand dropping by 2025?


It was alluded to in the article:

In a monthly report, the Paris-based body said it had revised down its demand forecasts for both this year and next by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d).

Fuel efficiency and rising vehicle electrification will bring a peak in oil used for passenger vehicles, even with a doubling of the auto fleet to two-billion vehicles.

Christopher Kuplen, BofAML's Research Analyst, argues that since 55 per cent of global oil is consumed in transportation, of which more than half by passenger vehicles, the demand for oil would eventually fall.

Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, was quoted as saying that the adoption of EVs could lead to global peak oil demand as soon as 2023, which will result in oil prices crashing to $10.

1). As if a roughly .1% drop in the demand forecast is significant. Feel free to cling to that, even as in the real world oil demand increases meaningfully every single year when there isn't a deep global recession.

2). It's not like the auto fleet will double by 2023, now is it? So this is talking about an eventual date, more like 2040.

3). 55% of global oil used for transportation sounds about right. "Eventually" isn't 2023. In the mean time, something like 60 million ICE's will be added to the global fleet annually, and something like 2 million EV's or so. Only in your dreams will a net addition of nearly 400 million ICE cars by 2023 cause an oil demand drop, given how slowly the efficiency of the global ICE fleet rises.

4). Gee, if I only had a dollar for every number free, nonsensical prediction by some economist re the oil price or demand. Given point 3, this forecast looks ludicrous next to every forecast I've seen recently aside from the useless ETP theory.

So, your source is about of the quality I would have expected. Again, at least the IEA and EIA use science and math.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby GHung » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 18:52:13

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
GHung wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:And what is your source for global oil demand dropping by 2025?


It was alluded to in the article:

In a monthly report, the Paris-based body said it had revised down its demand forecasts for both this year and next by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d).

Fuel efficiency and rising vehicle electrification will bring a peak in oil used for passenger vehicles, even with a doubling of the auto fleet to two-billion vehicles.

Christopher Kuplen, BofAML's Research Analyst, argues that since 55 per cent of global oil is consumed in transportation, of which more than half by passenger vehicles, the demand for oil would eventually fall.

Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, was quoted as saying that the adoption of EVs could lead to global peak oil demand as soon as 2023, which will result in oil prices crashing to $10.

1). As if a roughly .1% drop in the demand forecast is significant. Feel free to cling to that, even as in the real world oil demand increases meaningfully every single year when there isn't a deep global recession.

2). It's not like the auto fleet will double by 2023, now is it? So this is talking about an eventual date, more like 2040.

3). 55% of global oil used for transportation sounds about right. "Eventually" isn't 2023. In the mean time, something like 60 million ICE's will be added to the global fleet annually, and something like 2 million EV's or so. Only in your dreams will a net addition of nearly 400 million ICE cars by 2023 cause an oil demand drop, given how slowly the efficiency of the global ICE fleet rises.

4). Gee, if I only had a dollar for every number free, nonsensical prediction by some economist re the oil price or demand. Given point 3, this forecast looks ludicrous next to every forecast I've seen recently aside from the useless ETP theory.

So, your source is about of the quality I would have expected. Again, at least the IEA and EIA use science and math.


Jeez, O_S, try to not be such a confrontational ass. It's the article. Not me. If you have problems with that, contact the people making claims in the article. I didn't post the article OR the thread. Indeed, I was questioning the voracity of the claims in the article. Damned dishonest of you to imply otherwise.
Must really suck being some of you guys.
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Re: America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 21:36:16

At the same time, the renewable energy sources will become more important.


But but Carnival Barker Coffeeguyz said "renewables" are no good.

The Shale Scam apparrently doesn't like the "Renewables" Scam.
The Oil Industry apparently likes the "Renewables" Scam.

Doesn't matter.

Renewables/Shale = Bankrupt.

Good thing Scamerica's greatest "friend" is transferring all military technology and ven oil to China.
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Re: America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 15 Nov 2017, 23:18:31

P - Read my answer again: I didn't predict anything. You asked under what conditions that 25% increase might develop. I gave what I think would be the minimum requirement. I don't predict long term oil prices. Never have...never will. That's a fool's game IMHO.
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Re: America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 00:29:12

GHung wrote:Jeez, O_S, try to not be such a confrontational ass. It's the article. Not me. If you have problems with that, contact the people making claims in the article. I didn't post the article OR the thread. Indeed, I was questioning the voracity of the claims in the article. Damned dishonest of you to imply otherwise.
Must really suck being some of you guys.

Given the nature of your posts, generally, I thought in context that it looked like you were agreeing with the article, and its claim that demand will decrease.

"Color me skeptical" isn't exactly clear, now is it? (i.e. skeptical about what)?

But I know, if someone doesn't understand a vague post, and then disputes claims in the article you apparently use to defend your position -- then they're "dishonest".

Yeah, that's the ticket!
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 00:50:39

In a monthly report, the Paris-based body said it had revised down its demand forecasts for both this year and next by 0.1 million barrels per day (mb/d).

Fuel efficiency and rising vehicle electrification will bring a peak in oil used for passenger vehicles, even with a doubling of the auto fleet to two-billion vehicles.

Christopher Kuplen, BofAML's Research Analyst, argues that since 55 per cent of global oil is consumed in transportation, of which more than half by passenger vehicles, the demand for oil would eventually fall.

Chris Watling, CEO and chief market strategist at Longview Economics, was quoted as saying that the adoption of EVs could lead to global peak oil demand as soon as 2023, which will result in oil prices crashing to $10.
Just because oil use in passenger vehicles peaks, doesn't mean overall oil use peaks. The consumption profile of oil can change. When the oil crisis in the 70s hit, we saw oil fall out of favor in the power and heating sectors in many countries because of oil's price spice and the fact that there were viable alternatives. As increasing fuel efficiency and/or EVs become more viable for passenger vehicles, we can expect the oil consumption profile to shift again. We will see more oil being consumed in other sectors like petrochemicals, heavy vehicles, aviation, etc where alternatives are less viable and/or anticipated efficiency gains much smaller than with passenger vehicles.

Image
• Global transportation demand grows about 25 percent from 2015-2040
• Personal mobility demands continue to increase, but more efficient vehicles lead to a peak and eventual decline in light-duty vehicle (LDV) energy demand
• Growth in economic activity and personal income drives increasing trade of goods and services, leading to higher energy demand in the commercial transportation sectors
• Heavy duty growth is the largest by volume, but marine and aviation grow the largest by percentage
2017 Outlook for Energy: A View to 2040

• Global liquids demand (oil, biofuels, and other liquid fuels) increases by around 15 Mb/d, to reach 110 Mb/d by 2035.
• Oil continues to grow (0.7% p.a.), although its pace of growth is expected to slow gradually.
•In contrast, growth in non-combusted fuel use, particularly as a feedstock in petrochemicals, remains relatively robust (2.1% p.a.) in part because of its limited scope for efficiency gains.
• As a result, despite accounting for only a small fraction (6%) of current final energy use, non-combusted fuel use becomes the largest source of fossil fuel demand growth towards the end of the Outlook. Oil accounts for around two thirds of non-combusted sector’s growth, with natural gas providing much of the remainder.
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Re: America’s oil and gas output could soar 25% by 2025

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 16 Nov 2017, 13:42:34

ROCKMAN wrote: .....$100 oil for the next seven years....


ROCKMAN wrote: I don't predict long term oil prices. Never have...never will. That's a fool's game IMHO.


Got it.

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