Donate Bitcoin

Donate Paypal


PeakOil is You

PeakOil is You

Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 23 Mar 2019, 16:22:06

by 2005-2006 there was already a continuous fast rise in oil prices, but somehow you weren't smart enough to factor that into your predictions


and the technology to get large volumes of hydrocarbon from shales was in it's infancy. We were doing 500 m horizontals with one stage light fracs back then as opposed to the 3 km horizontals with as many as 20 stages of heavy fracs today. The analysis I did only factored in what was economic at the time, and shale was not. Just because oil prices rise rapidly in the $70 - $80 range it doesn't mean that you just turn on some sort of technology tap...it takes time for those changes to happen and for efficiencies to eventually drop costs.

- By 2012 you knew that oil prices had risen enough to make shale economic, and you knew there was a lot of shale oil. But still you saw fit to keep your prediction based on shale being uneconomic. derp
... you're still a tagged a tard.


please show a quote from me in 2012 where I said I was sticking with a 2012 - 2015 peak. I didn't say that and did not think that. It was clear as the shales became more important that they would change the face of global peak.

Not sure why you are on this kick in the first place. You apparently want to make everyone believe that abiotic oil is the reason for increasing production. Nothing and I truly mean nothing could be more stupid.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6713
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby jawagord » Sat 23 Mar 2019, 16:27:15

peakoilwhen wrote:>we have known about oil and gas in shales for many, many decades.

So you knew about these US shale reserves, but for some bent reason you didn't factor that into your peakoil prediction? Well no wonder your prediction was retarded. What a dumb thing to do. Either that or you're just wriggling like a worm on a hook now, crying that your prediction was wrong because you couldn't have known about the US shale oil reserves, but then crying that you already knew about the US shale oil reserves. Checkmate.


Hubbert included shale oil and tar sands in his 1956 presention on Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, starting on page 4. He didn’t see them as technologically recoverable sources in the 10-15 year span of his forecast.

http://www.hubbertpeak.com/hubbert/1956/1956.pdf
Don't deny the peak!
jawagord
Lignite
Lignite
 
Posts: 208
Joined: Mon 29 May 2017, 09:49:17

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 23 Mar 2019, 17:59:58

jawagord wrote:Hubbert included shale oil and tar sands in his 1956 presention on Nuclear Energy and the Fossil Fuels, starting on page 4. He didn’t see them as technologically recoverable ...


Well, Hubbert was wrong about that, wasn't he?

Thats why Hubbert's prediction of global peak oil occurring ca. 2000 was so wrong.

So....given the successful production of significant amounts of oil from tight oil shale, when do you think we'll reach peak oil in the future?

Cheers!
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 22173
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sun 24 Mar 2019, 00:48:24

> The analysis I did only factored in what was economic at the time, and shale was not.

Yes you've made that clear already. What a foolish mistake.

please show a quote from me in 2012 where I said I was sticking with a 2012 - 2015 peak. I didn't say that and did not think that. It was clear as the shales became more important that they would change the face of global peak.

Don't try that. As late as December 2012 I was still polling you to change your 2013-2015 prediction of peak oil. You had ample time to revise to a later time period for peak. But you wouldn't budge.

rockdoc123 wrote:
meemoe_uk wrote:When you and me had an exchange in the summer I was saying that unrecoverable oil would become recoverable if the market price of oil went up, and that it can go up way higher than it is today, and that oil is still very cheap today.
You were saying that increasing the market price of oil wouldn't impact our ability to extract oil much, so that peak oil would be around 2013-2015.

:cry:

Now with your latest post you seem to have agreed with my previous stance. A 75% recovery rate for all the fields we've found will give plenty of oil for decades.
" the course of the economy " ?
You see what happens when the oil industry decides it needs more oil. Suddenly and 'fortunately' an oil rich nation is 'evil' and needs invading, and all the surrounding oil rich nations need revolutions as well.

This supports my thinking you were being too pessimistic with your ' oil technology and discovery have run their course and now we will peak ' idea.



you probably missed my latest post where I pointed out that despite very high oil prices companies have not increased exploration and indeed are retrenching. The point is they need investors money to be able to explore and they aren't getting any due to economic woes and pessimistic investor outlook. The same can be said for R&D, very little in the way of investment dollars for it currently so it is curtailed. I said that 75% ultimate recovery rate might be possible technically but I did not say at what expense, effort or time frame, all of which have to be taken into account. For simpler reservoir issues it could happen quickly and could be quite economic, however for more difficult problems such as oil wet reservoirs or viscous essentially dead oil it remains to be seen at what time a solution could be achieved or whether it could be done economically. It's not like you can just snap your fingers and we suddenly have high recovery rates in all fields.


With every suggestion I made to get you to postpone peak till later, you argued against my reasoning. In this you had made it quite clear that you were sticking with 2013-2015.

Also you're making an idiot mistake with your logic here : just the sort of mistake I'd expect from someone who failed maths physics chemistry so had to go do geology.
please show a quote from me in 2012 where I said I was sticking with a 2012 - 2015 peak. I didn't say that and did not think that.

So are we supposed to work by the rule that all your predictions are invalidated the moment after you make them if you don't continually announce that you're sticking with the prediction? bulshit.
The onus is on you to explicitly state you are changing your prediction with a good excuse or admission of error. The onus is not on others to assume that your prediction is legitimately invalidated, with no loss of credibility to you, when you don't repeat your prediction.
I see now why you had to become a geo. You aren't strong minded enough to admit error.
peakoilwhen
permanently banned
 
Posts: 134
Joined: Wed 08 Feb 2017, 07:53:15

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby marmico » Sun 24 Mar 2019, 04:09:09

Thats why Hubbert's prediction of global peak oil occurring ca. 2000 was so wrong.


Why do persons rely on Hubbert's 1956 estimate of a 2000 peak of 12.5 gigabarrels of world production per year (Figure 20)? That point was passed in ~1965.

Why do persons rely on Hubbert's 1956 estimate of 1250 gigabarrels of world ultimate recovery (Figure 20)? That point was passed in ~2010.
marmico
Tar Sands
Tar Sands
 
Posts: 933
Joined: Mon 28 Jul 2014, 13:46:35

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby peakoilwhen » Sun 24 Mar 2019, 04:30:17

>Why do persons rely on Hubbert
Just a habit they've got into. This a cult, and cults need leaders. Berty was a leader.

If you're looking for any better reason than that then be ready to absorb a lot of opinionated twoddle from all his minions.
peakoilwhen
permanently banned
 
Posts: 134
Joined: Wed 08 Feb 2017, 07:53:15

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 12:33:02

Chris Martenson says that now that Ghawar is in decline, we are on track for a global oil shortage by 2022.

huge-news-ghawar-decline

The next few years should be interesting.

Cheers!
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 22173
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 13:52:07

Chris Martenson says that now that Ghawar is in decline, we are on track for a global oil shortage by 2022.


Ghawar has been depleting since it was first brought on stream. The recent decrease in Ghawar MSC whether it is a product of natural decline or managed production has been more than made up by MSC increases at other fields. The MSC for Aramco remains at 12 MMbbl/d which is where it has been for sometime. So this is nothing more than a tempest in a teapot. Saudi Arabia has the reserves the always talked about and their production capacity has increased by about 3 Mmbl/d since everyone was wringing their hands over Ghawar a decade ago.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6713
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby asg70 » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 14:24:38

rockdoc123 wrote:this is nothing more than a tempest in a teapot.


What it is...is nothing more than Chris Martenson trying to run a business on doom-mongering. You know, Peak Prosperity and all that.
EXTREME PREDICTION LEADERBOARD
"this is peak now. Wanna bet? The Real Pain starts . . . now." (11/21/18)" --pstarr
"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
asg70
Intermediate Crude
Intermediate Crude
 
Posts: 2404
Joined: Sun 05 Feb 2017, 13:17:28

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 18:22:26

Ghawar has been depleting since it was first brought on stream.


Why waste our time with an irrelevant statement that could be said about every oil field in the world?

The key point here is that the first independent review of production of Ghawar was recently released as part of the ARAMCO bond prospectus, and it shows that production at Ghawar has declined over 20% over the last several years.

Cheers!
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 22173
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 19:09:34

The key point here is that the first independent review of production of Ghawar was recently released as part of the ARAMCO bond prospectus, and it shows that production at Ghawar has declined over 20% over the last several years.


NO the key point is decreased production at Ghawar whether it is natural or due to managed production levels has been more than made up for by increases elsewhere. Spinning a picture of doom because there is less production at Ghawar doesn't work anymore.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6713
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 20:12:49

decreased production at Ghawar .... has been .... made up for by increases elsewhere.


True enough. Even though Ghawar production is down, total oil production from KSA still hasn't peaked.

Cheers!
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 22173
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 17:56:51

Plantagenet wrote:
decreased production at Ghawar .... has been .... made up for by increases elsewhere.


True enough. Even though Ghawar production is down, total oil production from KSA still hasn't peaked.

Cheers!

To be fair, we don't know why production is down, but it might well have to do with relative costs vs. a major geological trend change.

KSA has been playing the swing producer to some extent, re trying to keep oil prices in a moderate range -- and this has made the news re putting strains on their national budget, etc.

Perhaps (and this is just speculation based on economics, not oil production know-how), they found it cheaper to let Ghawar decline naturally in the short run and ramp up other prospects. As I understand it (and again, I could be wrong as I'm not in the industry), sometimes to exploit more resources in such giants, SERIOUS infrastructure spending is required up-front, to realize the increased production for X years. The KSA might prefer to do such spending if and when oil prices get steep enough to more easily justify it.

(Or of course, it could be completely different.)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
User avatar
Outcast_Searcher
COB
COB
 
Posts: 6632
Joined: Sat 27 Jun 2009, 20:26:42

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 19:07:19

Outcast_Searcher wrote:To be fair, we don't know why production is down, but it might well have to do with relative costs vs. a major geological trend change......Perhaps (and this is just speculation based on economics, not oil production know-how), they found it cheaper to let Ghawar decline naturally in the short run and ramp up other prospects.


KSA has been extremely tight with information on their oil production. Thats why the data releases in the ARAMCO bond prospectus are so important----they provide the first independent assessment of the current status of Ghawar and other Saudi oilfields.

The revelation that Ghawar oil production is down over 20% from its peak has attracted a lot of attention. Since I am a scientist I tend to put a lot of weight on the actual data, and the data shows production has recently dropped. I find it interesting how many people don't accept that data at face value.

As far as your suggestion that Aramco might have shifted oil production elsewhere because it is cheaper for Aramco to produce oil elsewhere, I personally doubt thats the reason because Ghawar is KSA's main field and its well known that oil production at Ghawar can be done very very cheaply. In fact, for decades oil at Ghawar has been among the least expensive to produce in the entire world.

The Saudis know the geology and reservoir characteristics at Ghawar extremely well, the access is excellent and the infrastructure is already in place to do more drilling, to store the oil, and to transport it to market. Theres no evidence the Saudis have stopped or slowed the drilling they do there all the time to keep production up....but production is falling nonetheless.

Almost certainly it would be more expensive for Aramco to explore for oil in new areas, work up the data and find new fields, drill test wells in remote new areas and then develop new infrastructure to produce any oil found there, and even more new infrastructure to store the oil and more infrastructure to transport new oil to market. NOPE....IMHO its unlikely they shifted their attention away from Ghawar in order to produce oil more cheaply.... There might be a strategic or political reason for it, but it probably doesn't save them any money.

Given the fact that oilcos have a well known tendency to produce their best prospects first, in order to maximize their profits, my suspicion is production at Ghawar is dropping because some areas of the field just aren't producing much oil anymore---the water cut is getting higher and higher, to the point that its now up to 98% in at least one of the sub-fields.

CHEERS!
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 22173
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 19:51:13

Since I am a scientist I tend to put a lot of weight on the actual data, and the data shows production has recently dropped. I find it interesting how many people don't accept that data at face value.


once again, it matters why the production levels are lower not the fact they are.

As far as your suggestion that Aramco might have shifted oil production elsewhere because it is cheaper for Aramco to produce oil elsewhere, I personally doubt thats the reason because Ghawar is KSA's main field and its well known that oil production at Ghawar can be done very very cheaply. In fact, for decades oil at Ghawar has been among the least expensive to produce in the entire world.


once again read the prospectus or at least the excerpts I have supplied from it. Aramco points out that they manage their fields to optimize recovery factors and take advantage of oil grade demand changes.

The Company actively manages its prolific reserves base in accordance with the Kingdom’s laws and regulations to maximise long-term value while optimising ultimate recovery from its fields. Because of the size and number of its fields and MSC, the Company is able to maintain its desired level of overall production by tapping into new reservoirs when required to improve long term value through portfolio capacity optimisation. This approach, which differs from the typical industry practice of maximising production rates per field, is more capital efficient given the nature of the resources available and leads to more stable production and higher ultimate oil recoveries.
Furthermore, the Company’s MSC and integrated logistics network allow it to vary crude oil production, which combined with their compatibility with global refining systems, provides the Company with a unique ability to respond to changes in demand for the Company’s crude oil grades.


Almost certainly it would be more expensive for Aramco to explore for oil in new areas, work up the data and find new fields, drill test wells in remote new areas and then develop new infrastructure to produce any oil found there, and even more new infrastructure to store the oil and more infrastructure to transport new oil to market. NOPE....IMHO its unlikely they shifted their attention away from Ghawar in order to produce oil more cheaply.... There might be a strategic or political reason for it, but it probably doesn't save them any money.


All of their fields are now integrated into the Smart Field system whereby all drilling, completions, production, separation, transport etc. (essentially all activities) are captured in real time and integrated into their full field models. They have published on this. Now that all of the integration of surface facilities has been completed (the megaprojects) the cost to drill and complete at Ghawar will be essentially the same as at Shaybah, Khurais or any of the other fields. The depths are similar, number of laterals required similar. The only time when costs will be different is when they are drilling a new sidetrack versus a new well. Given at these newer fields the drilling of new wells to reach MSC levels was complete by 2010 all that remains is drilling new sidetracks to make up for lost production. Why they would move their activities elsewhere is the demand for super light oil (eg: Shaybah) may be higher because of lost production from other countries of the same grade (Libya) or there may be greater Asian demand at a certain time for heavier oil such as produced at Saffaniyah.

Given the fact that oilcos have a well known tendency to produce their best prospects first, in order to maximize their profits, my suspicion is production at Ghawar is dropping because some areas of the field just aren't producing much oil anymore---the water cut is getting higher and higher, to the point that its now up to 98% in at least one of the sub-fields.


As Aramco says they are not behaving like Western companies but rather because of their large reserves and flexibility they are actively managing their fields.

And as to the comment about 98% water cut. The area with 98% water cut was where they were running the CO2 disposal and enhanced recovery evaluation program. It was specifically selected in a part of Ghawar that had been completely swept and depleted years ago in order to see if they could still recover additional oil. The part of the reservoir that has the bulk of the 48 billion bbls remaining is almost certainly produced at the same water cut it has been for a number of years (40%) mainly because they manage it with horizontal wells and low drawdown. But given actual lifting costs in Saudi Arabia are only about $4.50/bbl they could easily afford to produce wells to very high water cut for a long time. There are many fields in the world that have been producing at greater than 90% water cut (some from the very start). You just need to be able to deal with the additional water through separation and either reinjection or treatment and reuse.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6713
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 20:47:21

....as to the comment about 98% water cut. The area with 98% water cut was where they were running the CO2 disposal and enhanced recovery evaluation program....in a part of Ghawar that had been completely swept and depleted years ago in order to see if they could still recover additional oil.


Those parts of Ghawar with a 98% water cut aren't producing much oil today. Isn't that obvious? :lol: :-D :idea: 8)

If you accept that point then now consider the effect of rising water cuts in the rest of Ghawar.

As the water cut progressively increases in other areas, oil production from those wells will tend to decrease through time. And we know the water cut is progressively increasing in other areas of Ghawar. In various presentations Aramco has said that "the water cut was about 32% in 2003, and ranged from about 27% to 38% from 1993 to 2003.[15] By 2006, North Uthmaniyah's water cut was about 46%.[16][17]"

I haven't seen any updates on the current water cuts at Ghawar, other then the 98% reported in one area, but mostly likely they are going higher and higher in many areas of Ghawar. This will tend to reduce oil production rates.

Lets do some math and see how that works....if x number of wells had 30% water cuts in 2003 and they have 60% water cut today, then if we hold everything else constant the amount of oil produced would drop by half just due to the increasing water cut.

And voila! the oil production rate at Ghawar is indeed falling. The new data show that oil production rates have fallen so much that they are more than 20% lower then they were a few years ago.

Cheers!
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 22173
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 15 Apr 2019, 21:26:49

I
f you accept that point then now consider the effect of rising water cuts in the rest of Ghawar.

As the water cut progressively increases in other areas, oil production from those wells will tend to decrease through time. And we know the water cut is progressively increasing in other areas of Ghawar. In various presentations Aramco has said that "the water cut was about 32% in 2003, and ranged from about 27% to 38% from 1993 to 2003.[15] By 2006, North Uthmaniyah's water cut was about 46%.[16][17]"


Aramco has stated as late as 2010 (presentation by Saleri I believe) that they had gotten water cut managed to about 40% across the fields. The early higher water cuts were a result of water coning along fractures which they intersected with early wells. Use of newer seismic along with the advent of MRC wells allowed them to avoid the fractured zones and hence avoid water coning. The water influx now is just a product of the flood front, which they are managing. And as I said before wells can be produced at very high water cuts...you just need to produce higher total fluid volumes which is not a problem in wells with such high permeability (higher drawdown) and be able to deal with the additional water. This was discussed at length in the Saudi Arabia thread over a decade ago.

Lets do some math and see how that works....if x number of wells had 30% water cuts in 2003 and they have 60% water cut today, then if we hold everything else constant the amount of oil produced would drop by half just due to the increasing water cut.


apparently, neither math nor oil and gas production are in your wheel house. Oil production can be kept at the same level by producing more total fluid and dealing with the additional water. That is especially possible at Ghawar due to high well productivity index. The wells have always been produced at less than maximum drawdown and especially so with the long reach horizontals. That leaves lots of room to fiddle with total fluid production levels.
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6713
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 16 Apr 2019, 11:08:38

Aramco has stated as late as 2010 (presentation by Saleri I believe) that they had gotten water cut managed to about 40% across the fields.


1. Obviously they have a problem with rising water cuts. In spite of your child-like faith in the capability of the Aramco engineers, its not possible to "manage" the rising water-oil interface and stop it from rising as more and more water is injected into the field.

2. 2010 is now nine years ago. There's been a lot of production and a lot more water injection since then, and the oil-water interface has risen still higher.

3. Its not unreasonable to suspect that water cuts in pre-existing wells are higher now then they were nine years ago.

4. Rising water cut percentages in production wells are a possible reason why production has fallen over 20% from the peak at Ghawar.

5. Please refer to my post above to the see math explaining how this works.

Cheers!
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 22173
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 16 Apr 2019, 13:23:01

1. Obviously they have a problem with rising water cuts. In spite of your child-like faith in the capability of the Aramco engineers, its not possible to "manage" the rising water-oil interface and stop it from rising as more and more water is injected into the field.


Of course it is. This is a huge field. The water injection is peripheral and encroaches naturally from the edges of the field leaving high oil saturation in the middle (unless a fracture is intersected where water will cone into the wellbore). There is 48 billion barrels of oil left in that zone of high oil saturation. You are living in a world of "oh the Saudis are lying about their reserves, Ghawar is failing....etc, etc." that was endemic on this site a decade ago and you were tossing the same idea out on another thread just a few months ago. This has proven to be completely wrong. Do you actually realize how big 48 billion bbls of oil is? That makes it still number 1 or 2 in terms of oil field sizes in the world.

2. 2010 is now nine years ago. There's been a lot of production and a lot more water injection since then, and the oil-water interface has risen still higher.


and the wells are drilled away from the oil water interface. The total oil column height was 1300 feet and the gross reservoir height was 250 feet meaning that the higher parts of Ghawar at it's current depletion almost certainly do not have a bottom water contact. As the water front proceeds wells are produced until there is too much water and then they are either shut-in or converted to injectors. That is the way any field is produced. But there is a huge amount of Proven reserves left here. About the same size as the US total oil reserves at end of 2017.

4. Rising water cut percentages in production wells are a possible reason why production has fallen over 20% from the peak at Ghawar.


Just as them deciding not to drill as many new laterals in existing MRC wellbores as they had been or to manage production down to a certain level that allows them to increase production elsewhere would result in lower production.

5. Please refer to my post above to the see math explaining how this works.


what part did you not get about managing higher water cut by producing more total fluid and hence maintaining oil production? That is how the math works, or at least it does for those of us who actually worked in the industry.

The bottom line here is with 48 Gbbls of proven reserves left Ghawar is easily capable of being produced at a much higher rate than 3.5 MMbbl/d. In 2013 a paper was published that dealt with the statistics of global depletion and decline rates. What that paper demonstrated was that the mean depletion rate post peak across all the fields reviewed (350 Giant fields) was ~10% per annum and that includes many fields that do not have the attractive reservoir and fluid mobility characteristics that Ghawar has.

Hook, M et al, 2013. Decline and depletion rates of oil production: a comprehensive investigation. Phil. Trans. R. Soc. A 372. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2012.0448

Based on that level of annual depletion if the Saudis were producing flat out their daily production would be ~13 Mmbbl/d. The level they are producing at now is ~3%/annum leaving enormous room to increase production if it made sense to do so in terms of their two stated goals...maximize overall recovery factor across the country and take advantage of changing global demand for certain crude types. The fact that they make a big deal about managing their fields to an average of around 2% depletion /annum suggests method to their "madness".
User avatar
rockdoc123
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 6713
Joined: Mon 16 May 2005, 02:00:00

Re: Peak Permian means Global Peak Oil will happen in 2020

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 16 Apr 2019, 18:25:40

You are living in a world of "oh the Saudis are lying about their reserves...


Now you are lying. I've never said that and I don't think that and I didn't post those words.

In fact, back here in the real world, I've made a point of basing my comments on the data contained in the latest Saudi bond Prospectus.

If you want to dream up dumb ideas and then argue with yourself about your own dumb ideas, you are welcome to do so but please don't use a phony quote to try to claim your dumb ideas have anything to do with me.

Cheers!
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
User avatar
Plantagenet
Expert
Expert
 
Posts: 22173
Joined: Mon 09 Apr 2007, 02:00:00
Location: Alaska (its much bigger than Texas).

PreviousNext

Return to Peak Oil Discussion

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 27 guests