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THE Price of Crude pt 14

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 09:28:41

People forget that a lot of baby boomers have either retired or getting ready to. We aren't employed and don't want to be employed.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 10:33:20

Cog wrote:People forget that a lot of baby boomers have either retired or getting ready to. We aren't employed and don't want to be employed.

Social Security: A Ticking Time Bomb
By Stephen Moore

8O
https://www.cato.org/publications/comme ... -time-bomb

Social Security now has an unfunded long-term liability of roughly $5.5 trillion-which is larger than the entire national debt. It is said that demographics are destiny, and nowhere is that more true than in this retirement program. In 1950 there were 17 workers for every retired person. Today there are three. By 2030 there will be just two.
Last edited by Tanada on Mon 10 Dec 2018, 11:07:27, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: fixed broken quote
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 10:47:36

Those two will just have to work harder and be taxed more. Its our gift to the millennials.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 12:22:58

Not just the 44 million that are retired. There are 15 million disabled and another 15 million in college or job training and about 13 million providing care for someone at home. Apparently there are now few stay at home spouses other then those giving care.
At any rate few of these people want or can accept a job with their current conditions.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 12:55:56

Not just the 44 million that are retired. There are 15 million disabled and another 15 million in college or job training and about 13 million providing care for someone at home. Apparently there are now few stay at home spouses other then those giving care.
At any rate few of these people want or can accept a job with their current conditions.


I suspect there is also a fair number of lazy ass millennials living in their parent's basements who are working age but have no intention of seeking gainful employment and that would skew the numbers somewhat. Disraeli said appropriately....lies, damned lies and statistics are the three kinds of lies.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 13:09:35

The unemployment rate for the USA is at a 49 year low. If you want to work there is work. In the past two years since I've retired, I've had multiple offers from two different companies to return to work. They are busy. Just not interested.

The FED considers anything below 4.5% as full employment. We are at 3.7%.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa- ... O91TZ?il=0
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby GoghGoner » Sat 15 Dec 2018, 07:07:44

Well, the OPEC meeting and announcement of cuts did not cause an increase in prices. It does appear that it may have stabilized prices around $51. Stocks at Cushing are increasing rapidly and if OPEC has a export decrease than we should see stocks at Cushing stabilize. I think traders are just watching and waiting right now. Texas rig count has stabilized since June but the rest of the US and Canada is down since then.

China bought a lot of oil in November and their PMI is looking okay. Not really seeing anything in global demand that should cause this price collapse to continue.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sun 16 Dec 2018, 09:26:09

GoghGoner wrote:Well, the OPEC meeting and announcement of cuts did not cause an increase in prices. It does appear that it may have stabilized prices around $51. Stocks at Cushing are increasing rapidly and if OPEC has a export decrease than we should see stocks at Cushing stabilize. I think traders are just watching and waiting right now. Texas rig count has stabilized since June but the rest of the US and Canada is down since then.

China bought a lot of oil in November and their PMI is looking okay. Not really seeing anything in global demand that should cause this price collapse to continue.


Unlike the internet the physical world experiences weeks or months of lag between a decision and its effects.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 16 Dec 2018, 11:50:31

"It does appear that it may have stabilized prices around $51." And always good to remind folks that the price WTI sells for DID NOT STABILIZE at $51/bbl. The price oil future speculators are bidding for 30 day WTI future contracts stabilized at $51/bbl. That bid price could radically change in less then an hour subject to a Tweet from our POTUS or a press release from the KSA. And neither of which is at all predictatble. IOW that $51/bbl is not as much subject to real world supply and demand economics as it is to GUESSES made by investment speculators. Speculators that can change their expectation up or down with information that might have no relevance to the physical oil market dynamics.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 16 Dec 2018, 21:07:57

I paid $2.199 a gallon for gas in Chicopee Mass. this evening. I can deal with that for a while. :)
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby GoghGoner » Mon 17 Dec 2018, 12:16:45

Rock, the correlation between price of WTI quoted everywhere and what vt just paid of gasoline in MA is very strong. Yes, spot oil prices vary considerably but the rise and fall of WTI is consistent with the rise and fall of product prices.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby tita » Tue 18 Dec 2018, 08:04:07

BTW, the price of "WTI future oil contracts formed on the speculation of investors that bet on it based on informations about economic prospects, oil stocks, oil production, geopolitical stuff and so on" just went below $50, its lowest value since september 2017.

As the price of gasoline is also at its lowest value since august 2017, I think it's fair to say that the WTI price, however it is made of, reflects the state of the oil market.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 18 Dec 2018, 14:17:42

WTI, down to a little over $47
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Tue 18 Dec 2018, 14:30:18

onlooker wrote:WTI, down to a little over $47


I can practically feel the tension and desire in your post. :-D


Image
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Tue 18 Dec 2018, 14:35:14

Its not consistent at all with the average price of crude for 2018 that you ETP'ers predicted.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 18 Dec 2018, 14:37:18

it is gonna be close Cog!
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Tue 18 Dec 2018, 15:20:49

That is why people wager. The anticipation of the payoff or the loss.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 18 Dec 2018, 15:42:45

Cog wrote:That is why people wager. The anticipation of the payoff or the loss.

It could hinge now on whether the FED decides to raise interest rates or not on Wednesday.
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