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THE Price of Crude pt 14

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby GHung » Mon 03 Dec 2018, 08:55:05

Qatar announcing it's pulling out of OPEC is likely making things move as well. NatGas is down, gold up a bit and silver as well.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Tanada » Mon 03 Dec 2018, 10:59:05

GHung wrote:Qatar announcing it's pulling out of OPEC is likely making things move as well. NatGas is down, gold up a bit and silver as well.


Qatar is mostly a natural gas liquids exporter, their petroleum exports have been falling for half a decade no matter what the price has done. For them leaving OPEC makes sound financial sense, why keep paying fees to an organization that tries to influence the price of a minor export item when they need to focus on their major export items?
Qatar has announced it will quit OPEC in January in order to focus on cementing its position as the world’s top liquified natural gas (LNG) exporter.

The Middle Eastern state has been a member of OPEC for 57 years, but is one of the organisation’s smallest oil producers with an output of 600,000 barrels per day (bpd), compared to the 11 million bpd produced by OPEC’s de facto leader Saudi Arabia.

Qatar has found itself locked in a diplomatic dispute with Saudi Arabia during recent years, however Doha denied that its decision to leave OPEC was driven by politics.

Minister of State for Energy Affairs Saad al-Kaabi told a news conference that the decision had been communicated to OPEC and that Qatar would still be attending a group meeting later this week.

“For me to put efforts and resources and time in an organisation that we are a very small player in and I don’t have a say in what happens…practically it does not work, so for us it’s better to focus on our big growth potential,” he said.

Qatar is a major player in the global LNG market with an annual production of 77 million tonnes per year, with plans to increase output to 110 million tonnes by 2024.


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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 03 Dec 2018, 19:11:28

Russia's Putin and Saudi's Crown Prince Muhammad were giving each high fives and generally being chums at the G20 meeting.

Image
Hahahaahah! I murder reporters and you murder reporters so lets make a deal!

Now it looks like Saudi and Russia are going to team up against the west and cut oil production to drive up the price of oil.

crude-prices-surge-after-russia-saudi-arabia-agree-to-production-cuts-

Look for oil prices to go up from here.

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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Mon 03 Dec 2018, 19:21:03

A stable oil price is going to be better for US producers. Somewhere around $70-80 would suit me and my oil stocks. ;)
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Darian S » Mon 03 Dec 2018, 21:36:19

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Cog wrote:Crude oil price jumped 4% overnight pricipally on the US/China agreement.

Dow futures implied opening up 500 points.

To the extent that crude prices move on implied rates of economic growth, that makes lots of sense.

The terrible stock market "collapse" the doomers were recently calling for (yet again) isn't looking too realistic. Even without adding the implied 50ish S&P points from the pre-markets, whether you look at a year, six months, etc. the market is looking pretty flat, overall.

75% of the ultra-rich forecast a US recession in the next two years, survey finds-cnbc

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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 04:51:18

Except for the fact there are zero real world indicators that a recession is likely.

I heard the same recession prediction in 2017 for the year 2018.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 09:55:29

Cog wrote:Except for the fact there are zero real world indicators that a recession is likely.

I heard the same recession prediction in 2017 for the year 2018.

Hardly Clog.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 10:28:05

Have you looked back through Charles Hugh Smith predictions over the last ten years? His website has them. He is consistently wrong. Why any normal human would give him a bit of credence is beyond me.

@onlooker

Seriously dude. You need to unleash yourself from doomer blogs. I know. I used to be a doomer and followed the same blogs. Look at real economic data and liberate yourself from the doomer chains that have imprisoned you.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 04 Dec 2018, 16:48:46

Darian S wrote:75% of the ultra-rich forecast a US recession in the next two years, survey finds-cnbc

Word of the truth of the world gets around at the top.

Dude, get a grip. Every year, various internet "finance" sites bent on selling you something claim a big market crash is coming -- NEXT year.

Funny thing -- once a year, they add one to the year, and keep posting the same da*n ad.

I've been seeing these "ultra-rich" claim ads for quite a few months now.

CNBC is more and more of a liberal-leaning hack site, which will publish anything they believe will make them money. Entertaining, perhaps. Credible, increasingly, not so much.

Re your last statement, how much time do you spend on various conspiracy sites? If the truth were out there, would you know where to find it? (I don't claim I do, but at least I admit it).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 00:33:36



You're linking to the same article in multiple threads again. Don't do that. It's unnecessary and comes across as hysterical Chuck Heston style end-is-nigh spamming.

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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 03:05:06

asg70 wrote:


You're linking to the same article in multiple threads again. Don't do that. It's unnecessary and comes across as hysterical Chuck Heston style end-is-nigh spamming.

I beg to differ. When the contents of an article is germane to more than one thread, why not put it in more than 1. Besides it is not against site rules. :twisted:
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 07:39:37

It's against common sense. We saw the article in the other thread. No point in posting it again unless you think the rest of us have Alzheimers.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 13:45:31

onlooker wrote:I beg to differ. When the contents of an article is germane to more than one thread, why not put it in more than 1. Besides it is not against site rules. :twisted:


Because this site gets what, 20 new posts per day maximum? What are the odds the few of us who come here on a regular basis will miss it and will need you to spam multiple threads simultaneously? If it's not against the rules, it should be, and I will flag you mercilessly for it.

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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 14:58:50

onlooker wrote:I beg to differ. When the contents of an article is germane to more than one thread, why not put it in more than 1. Besides it is not against site rules. :twisted:


Spamming is bad. Period. MMMKay?

Being a jerk is bad, even if you can get away with it because it's not formally against the rules.

For example, I can make my house, yard, etc. VERY ugly and unkempt and weed filled, etc. I can paint things all kinds of weird colors my neighbors hate. After all, it's not illegal.

But how well will I get along with my neighbors then? (Today, I get along with them great, just via a little communication / thoughtfulness about changes. (i.e. "I'm planning to paint my rusting fence black. Does that seem OK to you?") And we all help each other out with various things. How is that not better, in principle?)
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 15:11:02

Well, I thought I was actually doing a service as perhaps one or more posters may focus on one thread and miss or avoid another. I bet you guys would not complain so much if it was a optimistic and cheerful article hmm
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 05 Dec 2018, 15:17:07

onlooker wrote:Well, I thought I was actually doing a service as perhaps one or more posters may focus on one thread and miss or avoid another. I bet you guys would not complain so much if it was a optimistic and cheerful article hmm

Well, good to hear that you're coming up with such a "great" justification to post like a jerk,
since that makes it OK. :roll:

And I'd object to you wasting peoples' time and site resources spamming duplicate messages regardless of the tone of the message. There's nothing wrong with posting bad news. But bad news all the time, and very bad predictions all the time to project false claims of doom is just a waste of time and space, IMO.

But I suppose everyone needs hobbies. :|
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby Cog » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 15:41:45

Back in business boys. Sorry onlooker. This was sort of your last hope. :-D

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... -Deal.html


Oil prices shot up on Friday after the stubborn holdout Iran agreed to have OPEC reduce oil production by a total of 800,000 bpd, while non-OPEC nations, led by Russia, are reportedly adding another 400,000 bpd of cuts, for a total of 1.2 million bpd OPEC+ production cut.

At 09:31 a.m. EDT on Friday, WTI Crude was soaring 3.73% at $53.41, while Brent Crude was surging 4.15% at $62.55.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 07 Dec 2018, 15:48:49

Cog wrote:Back in business boys. Sorry onlooker. This was sort of your last hope. :-D

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Oil-Prices/ ... -Deal.html


Oil prices shot up on Friday after the stubborn holdout Iran agreed to have OPEC reduce oil production by a total of 800,000 bpd, while non-OPEC nations, led by Russia, are reportedly adding another 400,000 bpd of cuts, for a total of 1.2 million bpd OPEC+ production cut.

At 09:31 a.m. EDT on Friday, WTI Crude was soaring 3.73% at $53.41, while Brent Crude was surging 4.15% at $62.55.

Yep, its a foregone conclusion now :cry:
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby dissident » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 00:42:26

Cornucopian wankers. Like that moron in the other thread who thinks that a non inflation adjusted hourly wage graph proves how rosy and great things are. Let's just pretend that debt driven GDP has nothing to do with it. There was something known as the business cycle back in the good old days. For some mysterious reason this cycle has disappeared. One has to ask hard questions as to why. Capitalism has a natural boom and bust cycle. If it is not there, then you don't actually have capitalism, you have some sort of managed capitalism. And this is what we have in the US. An oligarchy which operates oligopolies with full collusion of all levels of government and with orchestrated maneuvering of the banking sector. Anyone who keeps chirping about free markets needs to open up an economics textbook and look up the definition of free market.

The problem with managed capitalism and managed finances is that the managers are not omniscient and inconsistencies that would have been resolved by stochastic processes accumulate as the adjustment is artificially suppressed. We already saw the onset of large scale systemic crisis in 2008. We got Pancho Villa money printing in the US to "solve" this. In fact, nothing has been solved and the managers could just barely stabilize the situation. This didn't last long and the system is destabilizing again.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-m ... dle-class/

(Look at the inflation adjust median incomes for males in the US, it has been falling since the early 1970s. There has been an offset from the increase in female incomes).

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2018/artic ... covery.htm

Figure 10 shows that there has been no recovery in the drop in labor force participation after the 2008 recession. Keep this in mind when looking at all the income statistics. Income statistics do not count people who are not working. So millions of unpaid working age citizens are falling through the cracks.
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Re: THE Price of Crude pt 14

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Mon 10 Dec 2018, 08:12:03

dissident wrote:Cornucopian wankers. Like that moron in the other thread who thinks that a non inflation adjusted hourly wage graph proves how rosy and great things are. Let's just pretend that debt driven GDP has nothing to do with it. There was something known as the business cycle back in the good old days. For some mysterious reason this cycle has disappeared. One has to ask hard questions as to why. Capitalism has a natural boom and bust cycle. If it is not there, then you don't actually have capitalism, you have some sort of managed capitalism. And this is what we have in the US. An oligarchy which operates oligopolies with full collusion of all levels of government and with orchestrated maneuvering of the banking sector. Anyone who keeps chirping about free markets needs to open up an economics textbook and look up the definition of free market.

The problem with managed capitalism and managed finances is that the managers are not omniscient and inconsistencies that would have been resolved by stochastic processes accumulate as the adjustment is artificially suppressed. We already saw the onset of large scale systemic crisis in 2008. We got Pancho Villa money printing in the US to "solve" this. In fact, nothing has been solved and the managers could just barely stabilize the situation. This didn't last long and the system is destabilizing again.

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/social-m ... dle-class/

(Look at the inflation adjust median incomes for males in the US, it has been falling since the early 1970s. There has been an offset from the increase in female incomes).

https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2018/artic ... covery.htm

Figure 10 shows that there has been no recovery in the drop in labor force participation after the 2008 recession. Keep this in mind when looking at all the income statistics. Income statistics do not count people who are not working. So millions of unpaid working age citizens are falling through the cracks.

And yet with all that gloom and doom there are 156.8 million people in the USA with jobs 129.6 million of them full time 27 million part time. with the average wage at $22.95 / hour. Also the median income in the USA is above $61,000 per family. Apparently the oligarchs forgot to rip off a few of us.
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