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Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 14:52:03



It saddens me to say it, but we are approaching the end of the automotive era. The auto industry is on an accelerating change curve. For hundreds of years, the horse was the prime mover of humans and for the past 120 years it has been the automobile. Now we are approaching the end of the line for the automobile because travel will be in standardized modules. The end state will be the fully autonomous module with no capability for the driver to exercise command. You will call for it, it will arrive at your location, you'll get in, input your destination and go to the freeway. On the freeway, it will merge seamlessly into a stream of other modules traveling at 120, 150 mph. The speed doesn't matter. You have a blending of rail-type with individual transportation. Bob Lutz is a former vice chairman


Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 14:54:49

First Tony Seba see's it. Now the ultimate car advocate sees it.

But can the zealots of oil-poclypse dogma accept the obvious when it comes to the end of their malthusian doom based wet dreams?

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Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 15:59:57

Well, to be honest, Lutz called global warming a crock, so I don't think his opinion will move people off the sidelines.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 16:06:22

asg70 wrote:Well, to be honest, Lutz called global warming a crock, so I don't think his opinion will move people off the sidelines.


Lutz is no more a climate expert than I am. But when it comes to cars, what people buy, how they use them, how to sell them to folks...that is his purview. I was quite surprised by him saying this, I noticed it in the news before it popped up here, methinks he has sniffed the wind and detects something amiss from the good ol' days.

The very idea of autonomous auto's dooms as big a chunk of his industry as it does oil and gas drilling probably. Sure, both will continue, but they won't look anything like the size and scope they are today.

I'm going to start saving now, and when used Vipers come down in price because there aren't any buyers, I'm going to buy one just to park in the driveway to make a statement. A race red Viper sitting there in a world of little self driving pod looking cars, whisking their occupants silently and cleanly here and there.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby evilgenius » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 16:17:24

And people think sub-prime in '07-'08 was a problem. Wait until the vast numbers of Uber and Lyft drivers are all out of work, and can't pay their mortgages. Wait until the good paying delivery jobs at UPS are all gone, and those people can't pay their mortgages. No more truckers. I was looking at the comments for this article on the front page. Many people doubt this will ever happen. So, on the plus side, it's another opportunity to place a big short.
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 16:21:49

evilgenius wrote:And people think sub-prime in '07-'08 was a problem. Wait until the vast numbers of Uber and Lyft drivers are all out of work, and can't pay their mortgages.


Yeah, from that vantage point, why don't perma-doomers join the bandwagon? As long a there's a way to spin the future in a negative, then it's all good, right? But associate robo-taxis with the preservation rather than destruction of BAU and no no no no no no, it can't ever come to pass.

The irony is that standard peak-oil theory is associated with not just peak-oil but peak technology. You know, olduvai theory. We'll revert to stone knives and bear skins. It wasn't supposed to involve a robot-induced employment crisis.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 21:54:43

A few short years ago Lutz was pushing E-85 vehicles, now he is pushing EV's and when the 'next big thing' shows up I expect he will be pushing that as well.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 22:05:09

evilgenius wrote:And people think sub-prime in '07-'08 was a problem. Wait until the vast numbers of Uber and Lyft drivers are all out of work, and can't pay their mortgages.


Sort of like the luddite angle, with Uber and Lyft rather than buggy whip manufacturers and farriers?

evilgenius wrote: Wait until the good paying delivery jobs at UPS are all gone, and those people can't pay their mortgages. No more truckers. I was looking at the comments for this article on the front page. Many people doubt this will ever happen. So, on the plus side, it's another opportunity to place a big short.


Could be! I wonder how those buggy whip manufacturers and farriers made out, shorting cars?
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 22:07:18

Tanada wrote:A few short years ago Lutz was pushing E-85 vehicles, now he is pushing EV's and when the 'next big thing' shows up I expect he will be pushing that as well.


The guy who convinced people to buy gas guzzler monster car can't be all bad. Plus I've owned some of those E-85 capable machines, so he must have done okay in getting those ones out the door as well. But it does seem a bit against his self interest, pushing the end of the thing he has a lifetime promoting.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby Cog » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 22:51:41

Tesla's hyperloop track has been less than successful unless you count the hype part.
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 23:28:55

Bob Lutz is on the PBS business show right now predicting the end of car ownership in 20 years. I don't have any problem with the idea that AI robots will be driving taxi cabs in the near future---but the 20 year timeline for the end of individual car ownership seems too fast to me.

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Robot cab drivers reporting for work

I really disagree with the contention that as soon as driverless cabs are on the road, everyone will immediately get rid of their own cars, and switch to only using the robot cabs. Some of us like driving our own cars. Some of us even like to get on a motorcycle and ride it and steer it ourselves. If you have a driver's license and you own a vehicle, why do you even need an autonomous driverless cab?

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Some of us like riding our motorcycles---why would we need autonomous cabs?
Last edited by Plantagenet on Wed 08 Nov 2017, 00:51:08, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 07 Nov 2017, 23:57:32

Plantagenet wrote: Some of us like driving our own cars.


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plantagenet wrote: Some of us even like to get on a motorcycle and ride it and steer it ourselves.
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Some of us like riding our motorcycles.



But not slow like that incompetent giraffe.

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Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 00:07:21

Tanada wrote:A few short years ago Lutz was pushing E-85 vehicles, now he is pushing EV's and when the 'next big thing' shows up I expect he will be pushing that as well.

That's my thought. If Lutz is to be listened to, why did GM consistently produce such miserable quality (and generally still does) compared to brands like Toyota and Honda, especially when durability is considered?

If building a huge company that needs to be bailed out by government and produces, overall, below average cars is a qualification for being listened to, we've sunk awfully low.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby SeaGypsy » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 00:58:12

Market research seems to show everyone wants everyone else to be in automated transport, while everyone wants to be in control of their own. In other words, there's no market, except for blind & otherwise disabled folks & parents sending kids to school.

Btw, Uber & Lyft drivers don't even make minimum wage, they aren't paying mortgages.
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 08:25:48

baha wrote:....maybe your personal transport can only go 35 mph and has a range of 50 miles.....


My cars and motorcycles all are much better then that now. Why would anyone (other than an EV fanatic) want to swap the vehicles we have now for crappier vehicles with highly restricted range and poorer performance?
"Its a brave new world"
---President Obama, 4/25/16
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Re: Bob Lutz: Kiss the good times goodbye

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 08 Nov 2017, 08:55:50

Plantagenet wrote:Why would anyone want to swap the vehicles we have now for crappier vehicles with highly restricted range and poorer performance?


They will swap them when they don't deem them crappier. FUDsters will always deem them crappier but those opinions are worthless to this debate.

Oh, and a select few will switch to EVs out of concern for the environment. Won't be you, of course. Your concern begins and ends with your rhetoric.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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