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Canada’s fossil fuel use to peak in 2019

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Canada’s fossil fuel use to peak in 2019

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 26 Oct 2017, 16:42:46


The National Energy Board now projects fossil fuel use in Canada will peak in 2019, a major downward revision of similar estimates it has made annually for the past decade. It's the first time in the 11-year history of the NEB's annual reports on the topic that a peak in fossil fuel demand has been included in the baseline projection. Previous reports projected demand would increase for the next two or three decades, at least. The NEB's projections from previous years are indicated by the lines in different colours. The line in black indicates the latest projection, which has Canadian fossil fuel use peaking in 2019 and then declining slowly after that. (National Energy Board) The NEB now says things have changed on several fronts, and a peak in domestic demand is likely much sooner than previously expected. "Improving energy efficiency, somewhat slower economic and population


Peak demand in Canada in 2019
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Re: Canada’s fossil fuel use to peak in 2019

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 26 Oct 2017, 16:44:52

You go you crazy Canucks!! Show the world how it is done!!

Next up? USA!
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Re: Canada’s fossil fuel use to peak in 2019

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Thu 26 Oct 2017, 17:23:55

Since we have a Federal government that keeps increasing the level of immigration every year I am rather dubious about the claim that fossil fuel consumption in Canada will peak in 2019. Canada has the highest rate of population growth in the western world.
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Re: Canada’s fossil fuel use to peak in 2019

Unread postby Tanada » Thu 26 Oct 2017, 23:16:37

yellowcanoe wrote:Since we have a Federal government that keeps increasing the level of immigration every year I am rather dubious about the claim that fossil fuel consumption in Canada will peak in 2019. Canada has the highest rate of population growth in the western world.


Indeed, even if every immigrant seeks to be an urban dweller most Canadian cities are prodigious energy users in winter. IOW the bigger Edmonton gets the more energy it uses even if folks are energy conscious and live in high density urban heat islands. I picked Edmonton because it grew over 100,000 in population in the five years from 2011-2016 and some members of this board invited me to visit back in 2008 so I looked it up back then and keep it in mind as a possible place to relocate if circumstances call for doing so in the future.

Just for comparison I looked up Toronto as well and it also grew by over 100,000 during the same period but it started out with about seven times the population of Edmonton and maintains that lead as both are growing at roughly the same rate in total population.

The idea that a nation with such large urban growth rates is going to peak in energy use in just two years is, to say the least, hopelessly optimistic.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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Re: Canada’s fossil fuel use to peak in 2019

Unread postby jawagord » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 09:01:31

The usage chart in the article shows Canada's fossil fuel consumption peaked in 2007 and has not yet returned to that level, despite 10 years of immigration and recovering economy. 2019 could be a new peak or not, we really won't know until decades after the fact if usage has truly peaked. Time to move on.
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Re: Canada’s fossil fuel use to peak in 2019

Unread postby marmico » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 09:24:25

Next up? USA!


US fossil fuel consumption peaked in 2007 at 85.9 quads.

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/mo ... sec1_7.pdf
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Re: Canada’s fossil fuel use to peak in 2019

Unread postby Tanada » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 10:01:31

jawagord wrote:The usage chart in the article shows Canada's fossil fuel consumption peaked in 2007 and has not yet returned to that level, despite 10 years of immigration and recovering economy. 2019 could be a new peak or not, we really won't know until decades after the fact if usage has truly peaked. Time to move on.


Yes and what happened in 2008? Oh yeah, the world went into a recession that should really be called the Second Great Depression and consumption of fossil fuels in North America and Europe took a serious hit. However population growth did not stop, or even slow by any appreciable amount so here we are a decade later and back near those 2007 levels.

In all honesty if the article was "Canada to hit new highs in Fossil Fuel use in 2019" I would have no problem with it, but Peak is a specific term with a specific meaning, the peak is the top and you can't go higher. Out here in the real world where people have to work and eat and heat their homes more people means more energy use. Increasing efficiency can slow down that rate of growth, but there are limits to energy efficiency and when nearly all new heating units are 93% efficient or better (mine was 97.5% when I installed it) the efficiency gains in the future are minimal compared to the last few decades. In 1980 the average furnace was only 55%-65% efficient so there was a LOT of room for improvement. Furnaces installed in the 21st century however have been under increasingly strong local efficiency requirement which means they are now much better than the 'minimum' 78% efficiency required by federal regulations in the USA. I am not sure what the Canadian minimum is but due to the vast cross border trade they are at least as tough as the USA standard and most likely much stricter. Aha just looked it up, Canadian furnaces have a 90% minimum requirement as of December 31, 2012. Canadian Standards Gas Furnace Effectively this means all new construction and most older construction that replaces the heating units on a 25 year cycle either already have or will soon be getting high efficiency furnaces. In turn this means efficiency gains in the future will have to come from improved building practices like thicker walls with greater insulation, and those standards generally cost a lot for retrofitting to existing structures. People would rather spend a few extra dollars on heating in winter than a few thousand making the building more efficient in retaining that heat.

What this adds up to is when cities like Toronto and Edmonton grow by 100,000+ residents in just five years is a lot of new construction is going up to house them, and that new construction is all using high efficiency furnaces already, so the energy use will inevitably increase with the population growth.
I should be able to change a diaper, plan an invasion, butcher a hog, design a building, write, balance accounts, build a wall, comfort the dying, take orders, give orders, cooperate, act alone, solve equations, pitch manure, program a computer, cook, fight efficiently, die gallantly. Specialization is for insects.
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