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Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 12:38:43

Did it ever occur to yall that because I talk about "doom" alot, it means I am not so worried about it. As soneone once said " They're is nothing to fear but fear itself"
"We are mortal beings doomed to die
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 12:50:34

Cog wrote:I see no environmental catastrophes underway. Where are they and why aren't millions dying of them?


It is not an emergency if it doesn't hurt.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 12:54:36

Look, I appreciate and respect the varying set of beliefs , opinions and expertise/wisdom in this site. Most of us are older folks and I do believe experience and age does endow one with wisdom and understanding.
Regarding the doom we simply have different perspectives and opinions. In the extremes we have Shorty espousing near term PO doom and Cid Yama near term Climate Change doom. On the other side, we have Kaiser saying things will progressively get worse but slowly and steadily. And a few who do not see PO doom or see it happening only at a more distant time frame. Nobody seems to be budging much from their positions. Only time will tell who has been more prescient


Our best estimates are based on what factual information that is available. Unfortunately, we are immersed in so much propaganda, and intentionally planted misinformation that for the average person a realistic perspective becomes almost impossible. It is only the first hand information that can be relied upon to any great extent. For example; is the ecology in trouble? I have baby eagles dying 10 miles from my home as a result of mercury toxicity that was blown into this area during the 1950s and 60s from coal fired power plants in the Mid West. My self, and several others spent days paddling up and down a local river to collect samples. I saw and examined the lab results. Yes, we have undoubtedly poisoned a great area of the planet beyond its ability to recover. Heavy metals like mercury, cadmium and lead, which are inimical to life, and that are normally not found freely in nature reside in the environment for millennium. The coal companies denied it vehemently for decades, and most believed them.

Generally we humans have a very short term perspective. A long time is usually confined to a human life span. Exposure to substances during a persons mid 20's may not seem like a problem, but those same exposures will kill them when they reach 55. It has taken several generations to eradicate the Carrier pigeons and Snail darters, pump all the oil, and pump up the monetary system past its breaking point, the point from which mathematics told us could not be continued forever. No single generation, or economy can be held totally responsible, but that will be little consolation to the generation that must pay for it all. What will trigger the call on humanities demand note is likely to never be really known. Energy, environment, and money are so intertwined that afterward it may never be untangleable. But, we will know that those who held no sanctity for truth, or responsibility for their species, society, and planet played a decisive role.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 13:15:50

Short, you speak in the technical vernacular of the Oil Industry. You personally and your site/group has not indicated any direct relation with the oil industry and you have not engaged in widespread solicitation/selling. That harvests in me a certain degree of trust. I hope you are wrong but think you may just be right.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 13:31:12

shortonoil wrote: I have baby eagles dying 10 miles from my home as a result of mercury toxicity that was blown into this area during the 1950s and 60s from coal fired power plants in the Mid West. My self, and several others spent days paddling up and down a local river to collect samples. I saw and examined the lab results. Yes, we have undoubtedly poisoned a great area of the planet beyond its ability to recover.


Bald Eagles, Peregrine Falcons and Brown Pelicans (west coast population) suffered population crashes back in the 60's and 70's due to the bio accumulation of pesticides that were afterwards banned. Their extinction was forecasted back then especially for the Peregrine Falcon. The population rebound of all three species has been nothing short of spectacular. Using eagles as an example in your post only proves the resiliency of species to bounce back, not so much their vulnerability. Isolated cases of mercury poison is not a threat in any way to this species, whereas widespread use of insecticides that bio accumulated after eating infected prey was.

It is important to ask why back then were we able to legislate the banning of DDT and other Chlorinated hydrocarbons or the banning of Fluorocarbons due to ozone depletion. Two great examples of positive legislation but of course both had substitutes. A little more tricky substituting energy sources away from fossil fuels at the scale we consume them.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 15:09:48

Cog wrote:I see no environmental catastrophes underway. Where are they and why aren't millions dying of them?


It’s only because you are blind to them.

I would like you to read one book, well written, on the subject. It is “Sea of Slaughter” by Farley Mowatt, Canada’s largest selling writer. Once you have read it get back to me and we can discuss.

In the meantime consider this, we have stripped the oceans of most of the fish. Hundreds of millions of humans rely upon fish as a food source. The disaster is underway. Perhaps not of Fox nor as fast you would like but it is truly underway.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 15:36:36

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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 15:47:18

About Farly Mowat. He writes total BS but with style and talent. I became aware of his deceptions back in the early 1970s when I spent a year at an isolated LORAN-C station in Port Clarence, AK.

You see, we had a problem with wolves. We also had a first edition of Mowat's Never Cry Wolf. Virtually everything in the book was total BS, he could get nothing right. Far from being noble animals, wolves were killers that would attack anything, just for the fun of killing. We came across caribou calves and baby seals they had mutilated, then lost interest in.

As it turned out, Mowat was hired as a naturalist but never actually worked the job. He went to where his studies were supposed to take place, appropriated the work of another, and published them. Then he abandonned his job, spending less than two months in the area and publishing memoirs that said he was there for more than a year.

Farley Mowat's nickname among Canadians who know hin is "Hardly Knows It".

https://thecuriouspeople.wordpress.com/2014/01/15/when-a-favorite-writer-has-been-bs-ing-you/
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 16:03:13

Yes KJ, Farley loved a good story. He is capable of telling tall tales, but also of carefully written books. So was Asimov.

The book I’m discussing was very well researched and written. It’s not a tall tale, it’s a historical account. So unless you have specific contradictions with facts to back it up I’ll stick by Farley on this one.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby shortonoil » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 19:43:58

Bald Eagles, Peregrine Falcons and Brown Pelicans (west coast population) suffered population crashes back in the 60's and 70's due to the bio accumulation of pesticides that were afterwards banned.


Pesticides are a very sort term threat. Even the most viral are gone in a few decades. Heavy metals have a negative impact that last for thousands of years. They insure extinction for the species. Pesticides are harmful because they kill insects that many birds feed upon. They directly have no more impact to wild game than they do to humans. A few more cancers from time to time. Not ten miles from here is an Eagle tree in the middle of a farmer's field that gets sprayed twice a year. The Eagles have been in that same tree for 50 years. Heavy metals are toxic to all life forms; and that includes humans. At the present rate that human male sperm count is falling our species will be going extinct in a few generations. It has fallen 50% in the last 40 years.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Yonnipun » Tue 26 Feb 2019, 04:17:14

They directly have no more impact to wild game than they do to humans. A few more cancers from time to time.


I know a man whose daughter died from leukemia. She was very young. He had his land rented out for a farmer who sprayed the fields whenever he wanted no matter the wind direction , time etc. So I saw this man multiple times shouting in the phone like grazy maniac when the farmer decided to start spraying on Sunday morning. Here where my summer house is we also have this problem. I usually leave to town when they start spraying. I often wonder how the hell they find guys who are willing to work in those tractors.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 26 Feb 2019, 08:32:22

Now it is getting real. They have contaminated my beer supply.
"You wheelize of course ZEEHIS MEANS WAR!"
A new report by the public-interest advocacy group U.S. PIRG reveals that tests of five wines and 15 beers, including organic ones, found traces of the controversial weed killer glyphosate in 19 out of the 20.

They include brands like Coors Light, Miller Lite, Budweiser, Corona, Heineken, Guinness, Stella Artois and Samuel Adams.

“The levels of glyphosate we found are not necessarily dangerous but are still concerning given the potential health risks,” U.S. PIRG said.

Glyphosate, a pesticide and herbicide best known as an ingredient in Monsanto’s Roundup, is a probable human carcinogen, according to the International Agency for Research on Cancer, a branch of the World Health Organization.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/20 ... 943880002/
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 27 Feb 2019, 16:55:41

shortonoil wrote: At the present rate that human male sperm count is falling our species will be going extinct in a few generations. It has fallen 50% in the last 40 years.

Ah, more doomer nonsense by you.

No credible citations, I see. Well, fertility doctors who know something about the subject disagree. Not that I'd expect you to care, given your proclivity for ignoring meaningful data while you make sh*t up about whatever comes to your mind.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/ ... -fertility

Hint 1: Sperm counts are still within normal range.

Hint 2: That there MIGHT be a problem at some point is a FAR CRY from that we're going extinct.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 27 Feb 2019, 17:58:04

No credible citations


If you are are truly interested in being anything but an obstructionist just Google it. You can also ask your doctor. Unlike internet stooges they are a lot more likely to know what they are talking about. As to everyone providing you with "credible citations", your mother doesn't work here anymore. If you're not interested enough in the fate of your species to do some checking, it would not be surprising.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby Cog » Wed 27 Feb 2019, 18:29:43

shortonoil wrote:
No credible citations


If you are are truly interested in being anything but an obstructionist just Google it. You can also ask your doctor. Unlike internet stooges they are a lot more likely to know what they are talking about. As to everyone providing you with "credible citations", your mother doesn't work here anymore. If you're not interested enough in the fate of your species to do some checking, it would not be surprising.


You are no better at citing sources to back your outrageous claims, than you are paying off wagers.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby shortonoil » Wed 27 Feb 2019, 18:33:57

Sperm counts are falling. This isn’t the reproductive apocalypse — yet.
Seven questions about declining sperm counts you were too afraid to ask.


If sperm counts fall at the same rate as they have over the last 40 years, in 40 more years they will be 25% of original. A level too low to maintain population levels. Our species will then being going extinct!
see link above
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 27 Feb 2019, 19:03:49

shortonoil wrote:
Sperm counts are falling. This isn’t the reproductive apocalypse — yet.
Seven questions about declining sperm counts you were too afraid to ask.


If sperm counts fall at the same rate as they have over the last 40 years, in 40 more years they will be 25% of original. A level too low to maintain population levels. Our species will then being going extinct!
see link above


Better via that mechanism than the 4 horsemen of the apocalypse.
EXTREME PREDICTION LEADERBOARD
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"$0/barrel soon as per etp." (12/30/18)" --pstarr
ATTN: SHORT LOST A BET AND WON'T EVEN ADMIT HE MADE ONE. HE SHOULD NOT BE WELCOME HERE!!!
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 27 Feb 2019, 19:45:14

Must be all that time staring at a phone screen.
Imagine the anger once those effected discover the true cause of the problem.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby derhundistlos » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 00:15:06

Newfie, I agree with you entirely regarding Farley Mowatt. This gentleman was far ahead of the learning curve. Society failed to listen to his prescient warnings and rightly paid the price. Mowatt tried warning the cod fishing industry that the fishery would collapse unless reasonable limits were enacted. Nobody listened. How could the world's richest fishery that reliably produced millions of tons of catch generation after generation collapse? BAU continued as the technology improved and the fishing trawlers got larger and larger. Then it happened. In the early 1990s, the fishermen went out and returned with NOTHING. Panic ensued along with the blame game. 57.000 US cod fishermen lost their jobs while their ships slowly rusted away. Even to this day, a total commercial moratorium remains in effect with no sign of recovery. The world's richest fishery is functionally extinct.

For some, it's always easier to blame the messenger.
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Re: Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

Unread postby derhundistlos » Thu 28 Feb 2019, 00:17:08

"Ocean Apocalypse": Dr. Jeremy Jackson presentation at US Naval Academy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2zMN3dTvrwY&t=120s
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