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Collapse by 2025---Irrefutable

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 10:24:12

Recently, it seems to me, that there has been an uptick in the number of posts trying to dish the idea of collapse. So I was interested in an article published by the BBC (sorry not zerohedge :oops: ) entitled Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?
In the article is this definition of Collapse, which is interesting as under it a civilization does not have to go all the way back to the stone age for it to be a collapse, nor do they need to be totally wiped out.

Collapse can be defined as a rapid and enduring loss of population, identity and socio-economic complexity. Public services crumble and disorder ensues as government loses control of its monopoly on violence.

Virtually all past civilisations have faced this fate. Some recovered or transformed, such as the Chinese and Egyptian. Other collapses: were permanent, as was the case of Easter Island. Sometimes the cities at the epicentre of collapse are revived, as was the case with Rome. In other cases, such as the Mayan ruins, they are left abandoned as a mausoleum for future tourists.


The article also mentions
Studies suggest that the EROI for fossil fuels has been steadily decreasing over time as the easiest to reach and richest reserves are depleted. Unfortunately, most renewable replacements, such as solar, have a markedly lower EROI, largely due to their energy density and the rare earth metals and manufacturing required to produce them.


Enjoy the basic introduction http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20190218-are-we-on-the-road-to-civilisation-collapse
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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 11:52:01

Ed,

Y those definitions we are surely on the way. Clearly the USA is no longer a nation of laws, if it ever was. But also the EU is turning slowly in the same direction.

If anything is different this time it will because we have a much more global economy and the collapse may be global.
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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 12:14:01

Just always remember that collapse is deeply entwined with correction....

Even if your death is part of that collapse you do not go in vain, you are contributing to the correction.

That doesn't mean to passively accept the collapse, fight like the devil to survive but at that moment that you are backed into the corner of overshoot and disease, famine or war takes you out, in those last seconds before you succumb to eternity feel the deep joy that you are being part of the correction.
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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 13:39:45

I’ll have to take your word on that one.

As for me, if I’m in a prolonged alcatatonic state with no hope of recovery, turn off the respirator. Wait 10 seconds and turn it back on, see if that helps.
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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 14:10:10

FWIW, I do not believe in a collapse scenario, either from Fossil Fuels depletion, or from Climate Change.

With FF, the only fuel near peak is petroleum, because of the truly piggish way we have been consuming it. Even after the cost of petroleum spirals into the range where it is too expensive to burn, there will be decades of increasingly expensive petroleum consumption for essential plastics and medicines and pesticides and other petrochemical applications. IMHO, oil is already too expensive and too precious to burn for fuel - and by the time that knowledge is widespread, things will be an order of magnitude worse.

But waiting in the wings behind oil are tar sands and shales. Then there are decades of fracked natural gas. Then (as much as I hate the thought of it) there is at least a century of coal remaining, all of which will be burned. Even if in the next 2/3 decades the USA and the other Western countries were to transition energy production entirely from FF to greener forms of energy, we have such an appetite for cheap consumer goods that we are already selling coal and food to China and the Third World manufacturers.

As for Climate Change: We are not stopping the burning of FF's until they are too rare to use. The cessation of the FF burning which grows at least 3/4ths of the food that 7.8 Billion humans need is too great a price to pay. Face facts - that is what will happen. The entirely debateable impact of burning FF's will be very well understood as we live through it. Note I said LIVE. We are not dinosaurs or other dumb beasts to be killed by CC, we are technological humans. I don't know about the rest of you, but I am planning on my own electric power production, a super-efficient residence, and doubling up on the heat pumps that condition my living spaces. I plan to survive and to leave a comfortable, completely self-sufficient and durable homestead for my descendants to survive in as well.

In the end, all FF's everywhere get burned, even if you end up shoveling coal into the HVAC system that keeps CC at bay.

If the rest of you cannot make similar arrangements - meaning your best guess of what it takes to survive for you and your loved ones in the place you want to live - well, that's gonna be an example of evolution in action. Right now, survival and the ability to accumulate wealth and to acquire land and most of all, to remain out of debt, those are the survival skills needed. Later on, it may be how well you can tinker with your essential tech and keep it going.
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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 15:17:59

KaiserJeep wrote:As for Climate Change: We are not stopping the burning of FF's until they are too rare to use. The cessation of the FF burning which grows at least 3/4ths of the food that 7.8 Billion humans need is too great a price to pay.


Collapse isn't something that occurs because people decide one day to stop burning fossil fuels or using fertilizers to grow more food..

Collapse happens because people are FORCED to stop using fossil fuels and the society breaks down to the point that fertilizers and food and other basic amenities just aren't widely available any more.

Collapse won't be a choice---it will be the result of progressive climate change.

See all those agricultural areas out there in California and the midwest and in temperate zones around the world? As the climate changes those areas won't be able to grow crops. See those grand coastal cities? As sea level rises they will be progressively flooded and abandoned. See all those third world people in Central and South America, and Africa and Asia? As climate change destroys their agricultural economies they will be marching on the US and Europe demanding to get in......in fact thats already happening.

And see those nuclear bombs in the US, Iran, Saudi, Israel, Russia, North Korea, Pakistan, India, China, France, Britain? It won't take much to start a local nuclear exchange that could quickly go global.

Any one of those things could cause a civilisational collapse. And don't even get me started on our mediocre leadership in the US and around the world. Ohmigod...where do they find these cretins?

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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 17:26:28

The key word you used was "progressively". I believe it was Tanada who pointed out that a snail could escape SLR. As for marching refugees, what ever do youu suppose a Wall is all about, anyways?

I simply do not believe that any Muslim country has a nuclear weapon - yet. The reliable indication that they do have such will be Tel Aviv flashing into vapor. But only if the USA backs down to Iran, or the Mossad stops defending Israeli interests.

I would point out that civilization has NEVER collapsed, world-wide. That doesn't make it impossible, only extremely unlikely.
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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 17:41:48

EdwinSm wrote:Recently, it seems to me, that there has been an uptick in the number of posts trying to dish the idea of collapse. So I was interested in an article published by the BBC (sorry not zerohedge :oops: ) entitled Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Do you mean "dis", as in disrespect or disparage, perhaps? Or ditch, as in get rid of, perhaps? Because "dish" seems to make little sense, in context. (Red bold font mine, for emphasis).

We do continue to get more and more signs that a slow collapse in education levels seems to be underway. For example, people seem to use more and more words in place of other words which happen to sound similar, with no concept of what they're talking about. This, sadly, even includes official articles in "serious" MSM publications, as though even the English majors know little English. Same for their editors (if any), as well.

Don't English papers get corrected in public schools any more?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 17:53:07

....dish can also be a verb, as in "to dish dinner" (meaning to serve). There is also the slang verb form "dish" without an object, meaning to gossip, as in "she agreed to dish about her ex".
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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 19:00:45

KaiserJeep wrote:I simply do not believe that any Muslim country has a nuclear weapon - yet.


You are welcome to your own opinions, but you can't have your own facts.

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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby jedrider » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 19:19:35

Yep, all those countries have plenty of Muslims.

It is simply that mankind wants to be in control,

when in fact, we are just on the guest list of Earth, for now.

We can make ourselves uninvited even sooner with all those total destruction weapons.
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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 19:40:13

Still, only one of those nuclear countries has Islam as a state religion, and last time I looked, Pakistan had more Sufis than Wahhabists. They were however, tilting in the wrong direction, going more orthodox and less secular.

Realisticly, two countries on the list could destroy the planet, the USA and Russia. Both are under the influence of greedy Plutocrats who are not likely to sanction the end of the world.
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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 19:49:48

KaiserJeep wrote:Still, only one of those nuclear countries has Islam as a state religion, and last time I looked, Pakistan had more Sufis than Wahhabists. They were however, tilting in the wrong direction, going more orthodox and less secular.

Realisticly, two countries on the list could destroy the planet, the USA and Russia. Both are under the influence of greedy Plutocrats who are not likely to sanction the end of the world.


True enough, KJ.

However, I can easily imagine a local nuclear war starting between India and Pakistan, or Israel and iran, and then growing into something more global as the US and/Russia and/or China try to stop things or even take sides.

I think its an absolute miracle we haven't already bumbled into a nuclear exchange since WWII. I hope Trump doesn't get confused when he's sending out those angry tweets at 3 am and push the wrong button.

I hope you're having a splendid spring there on Nantucket or the Vineyard or wherever it is. Spring is going great here in Alaska. The new climate is quite a bit more pleasant then it previously was.

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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby Ibon » Thu 21 Feb 2019, 20:25:00

One of the worst case scenarios, and likely, is that collapse happens because of war and resource conflicts. In this case human agency through war will mask the environmental instabilities that are the underlying cause. If that happens we don't learn anything from moving through the consequences as it will all be framed mainly as a result of the human disruptions..... instead of driven by natural consequences and understood as such.

Such a scenario will be a wasted opportunity for cultural transition. No collective humility offered on the alter of our mother earth.

Damn, this is the most pessimistic and dreary paragraph I have written here on this site in 14 years!
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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 22 Feb 2019, 03:46:22

Ibon wrote:One of the worst case scenarios, and likely, is that collapse happens because of war and resource conflicts. In this case human agency through war will mask the environmental instabilities that are the underlying cause. If that happens we don't learn anything from moving through the consequences as it will all be framed mainly as a result of the human disruptions..... instead of driven by natural consequences and understood as such.


I agree with that. Those waiting for some global epiphany (and I know you're one of them) are likely to be disappointed.
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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby GHung » Fri 22 Feb 2019, 08:43:58

Ibon wrote: ........

Damn, this is the most pessimistic and dreary paragraph I have written here on this site in 14 years!


Yeah, that happens when you stop viewing things through the eyes of comfort, privilege and reason. Desperate people have little to none of that, and generally don't react to things well.
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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 22 Feb 2019, 12:42:17

OTOH, those with "comfort, privilege and reason" also have property laws, law enforcement agencies, and armed forces up to and including nuclear weapons. The USA and Russia are definately Plutocracies. If you do NOT think that the two "Big Weenie" Plutocrats Putin and Trump are acting in concert to manipulate NATO and the UN, please raise your hand.

I just don't see a worldwide collapse, ever. I definately DO think the "Long Emergency" began around the first OPEC oil embargo, and will continue to advance incrementally for another century at least. We all know those parts of the World which are already in collapse. In another century, that will include China, Russia, and the USA. The next major player to fall will be the EU, iMHO - and I think it will go within 30-40 years. Before then, both France and Germany will exit the EU, and those acts will invoke collapse in all the other countries in Europe. By then, Britain will be an armed island garrisoned with US and Canadian troops, to defend against refugees from the EU.

Although WW3 is possible, the USA and Russia will continue the long, slow dance of MAD, whose real purpose is to intimidate other countries.
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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby evilgenius » Fri 22 Feb 2019, 12:55:46

Several things don't look good, not just resources. We are much closer to an employment crisis brought on by artificial intelligence replacing human workers than we are to resource depletion, for instance. As with resource depletion, the unemployment crisis doesn't need to happen, it's just that it will unless the right steps are taken. If the world keeps going forward without planning first it will end in catastrophe. I think a similar fate will befall it if the planning is not well thought out.

I don't think that slapping a universal basic income over the jobs problem will work, in other words. That wouldn't put a stop to the inequality which has allowed the existence of the technology that will create the problem to cause the problem in the first place. It's the inequality which has driven the investment and implementation decisions which have brought this world upon us. It's not happening because the technology has come into existence. It's happening because the only way we have to distribute the profits gained by it is to the few, and not the many. A universal basic income won't fix this. It is only a form of largess which would come with strings attached. People in a democracy need to be able to vote not only with their ballots, but also with their money. They need to be able to take on risk, and receive the reward for having done so when the ideas that compel them to take those risks succeed. The universal basic income is a recipe for perpetually folding the economic engine into the camp of the already perceived winners. It would destroy vitality.

Something very bad could be on the horizon with money. As people lose their jobs they will default on their loans. The money supply is built from debt. When people default in large numbers it destroys money. Already there is huge danger out there. Take a situation like Uber, for instance. A great many people are driving for them, who owe a lot of money. If artificial intelligence were to replace drivers in, say, five years, all of those Uber drivers would be out of work almost overnight. I don't think it would actually take very long to roll out entire fleets of self-driving cars. The fleet model is already the one that the huge capitalized interested are saying they will pursue, over individual ownership. If fifteen other similar things also happen at the same time, look at the speed of change and how fast that is changing, then a lot of debt may be threatened with cancellation. It's easy to imagine fast food outlets not having employees anymore, as robots could flip burgers. Accounting and finance are just algorithms, which artificial intelligence is pretty good at replacing. The resultant blow to the money supply would be immense.

So the fleet model is an example of the sort of thinking I'm talking about that represents what the current distribution of profits will engender. They aren't talking about selling small self-driving fleets to individuals or s corps. They are talking about Uber cornering the market, all of a sudden, by owning all of the cars that drive for it. The cost of upkeep may derail that plan, but it wouldn't necessarily derail the plan that Ford has to do the same. Ditto the new Daimler BMW joint agreement I read about somewhere today, whose goal is to develop the fleet model for them on a shared between them basis. Regardless, individual ownership looks doomed, or relegated to the anachronistic. You are expected to call for your transport with an app, provided by one of the small number of firms which will be the only remaining actual owners of cars at that time, for the purpose of only using it to get from one immediate place to another.

Imagine what this sort of thing will do to thinking and individuality. Add what social media can do to homogenize people, and it is a recipe for the kind of society that doesn't need a tyrant in charge to be a tyranny. In a world like that people need choice to exercise freedom. The universal basic income, provided as it is currently being thought about, as a means to enable people to consume when they don't have incomes would only add to the bottom lines of those who own the fleets. The idea is to support the thing by taxing the fleet owners. That's a good way to take inventiveness out of the human equation. People may quit thinking for themselves, and begin to parrot whatever their phones tell them is right to think. Those who step out of line, who argue for more individuality, what would happen to them?
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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 22 Feb 2019, 13:23:40

I still dislike the term A.I., because what computers have that people do not have is not intelligence. The real problem is that lots of people have way too little intelligence themselves.

Nobody entering into this debate has anything to worry about. But one of the things that went along with the basic Christian system of thoughts and values was a work ethic, since lost in the decades-long sectarian slide.

I was reminded of this when one of my long-time friends went through a Leukemia scare with his kid. She made it, but years of chemo took their toll, she is no longer the bright and inquisitive youngster she once was. "Don't worry" her parents told her, "You can always get a job as a teacher."

That's the problem, not enough kids in STEM curricula. Yet even when they get lazy, and say "I'm no good at Math", they are also not willing to work at manual labor, an assembly line, or to apprentice in a trade. Without a work ethic, they think they can pursue some LAS curriculae, learning nothing whatsoever that anybody will pay them for, and then enjoy life with a paycheck.

Well, try telling an employer you don't "want to do" anything, and then act surprised when you find yourself on the street. They pay you to do things they need done, and not what you want to do. It is called "work" after all, and not called "play".

If you are not gonna get a STEM degree, and also not gonna apprentice in some blue collar job, then go live in your parents basement, just don't reproduce is all I ask.

Now those of you who still work, go to work, pay your taxes, and support those drones. When push comes to shove, we can put a bounty on their scalps, and have some sport. Those that pay taxes need not worry, you will get the hunting permits.
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Re: Are we on the road to civilisation collapse?

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 22 Feb 2019, 14:09:02

I don’t know that it matters much exactly which of our horsemen reach us first, at this point it is a coordinated Calvary charge with each one assisting the other.

I see 5 horsemen, which I’ll repeat for clarity. (As if anyone really cares, makes me feel good). Order is not important.

1. Over extended global financial system, lacks trust.
2. Climate change
3. Resource depletion (oil, water, etc)
4. Anti-bacterial resistant drugs.
5. Over population

As I recall the Limits to Growth report said that the models/graphs could not be trusted once one of the major trend lines started to break bad. Ther would be too much interaction between the various factors, things become chaotic in the downside. I think that’s about correct.

And as with all things chaotic the down side slope may not be smooth but a jagged ride of ups and downs generally trailing down.

As Tanada said elsewhere, time for prevention is past, start worrying about adaption. Which really means survival, cause you can’t adapt if your dead.
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