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The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Discussions about the economic and financial ramifications of PEAK OIL

The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 19 Oct 2017, 21:46:53

I was recently asked to give a talk called, “The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis.” In other words, how might the United States encounter problems that lead to a crisis? As we will see, many of the problems that could lead to a crisis (such as increased wage disparity and difficulty in collecting enough taxes) are issues that we are already beginning to encounter. In this talk, I first discuss the connection between energy and the economy. Without this connection, it doesn’t make sense to talk about a crisis arising with respect to energy and the economy. I then discuss seven issues that could lead to a US energy-economic crisis. Economic Growth Is Closely Tied to Energy Consumption If we look at world data, it is clear that there is a close tie between energy consumption and economic growth. Slide 2 On an individual country basis, there


The approaching crisis...
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Re: The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 19 Oct 2017, 21:58:42

Gail, from TOD, proclaimer of peak oil in 2008, proclaimer of high prices = bad, and proclaimer of low prices = bad, and with zero experience in energy and economics...has spoken!!! Again. Is the proclamation of doom count (for whatever reason) into the double digits yet? I think it is.
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Re: The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 09:52:32

A groundbreaking study in Elsevier’s Ecological Economics journal by two French economists for the first time proves the world has passed a point-of-no-return in its capacity to extract fossil fuel energy: with massive implications for the long-term future of global economic growth.


The “illusion of decoupling,” Ward and his colleagues argued, has been maintained through the following misleading techniques:

1. substituting one resource for another;
2. financialization of GDP, such as through increasing “monetary flows” through creation of new debt, without however increasing material or energy throughput (think quantitative easing);
3. exporting environmental impacts to other nations or regions, so that the realities of increasing material throughput can be suppressed from data calculations.
4. growing inequality of income and wealth, which allows GDP to grow for the benefit of a few, while the majority of workers see decreases in real income—in other words, a wealthy minority monopolises the largest fraction of GDP growth, but does not increase their level of consumption with as much demand for energy and materials.


https://www.alternet.org/economy/capitalisms-slow-burn-energy-collapse
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Re: The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 10:43:29

"...for the first time proves the world has passed a point-of-no-return in its capacity to extract fossil fuel energy...". A very strange statement. Perhaps just a bad translation: the world will have the "capacity" to produce 100 million bopd INDEFINATELY. But it may not have the developed reserves to keep producing the current rate much longer.

"Extract"? I assume they are trying to refer to "developing" new production and not "produce" which is what extraction implies. As stated above the industry has the capability to extract/produce twice the current global production rate. It just lacks the reserves to do so.

"Point-of-no-return": that point in time when it's better to keep going forward then to turn around and go back to where you started from. I'm not sure how going back to when we started the petroleum age before we reached the PONR would be done.

I suspect what they are trying to say is that we've reached global peak fossil fuel. Which is OK if these ECONOMISTS are of that OPINION. The probably minored in geology and have years of experience working in the petroleum industry. LOL. But as we all know it can't be proven. Unless one has an infallible crystal ball that can see decades ahead. No different the someone claiming in the late 70's they had "proof" the US had reached PO in the early 70's. As we know had oil prices not collapsed there was a strong possibility the US would have set a new PO date a couple of years ago.

And depending on the future price of oil the US may yet set a new PO date. But in my OPINION that isn't likely to happen. But I can offer no PROOF that it won't happen.

"Proof" is an extremely powerful claim. Powerfully supportive when it can be verified and powerfully discrediting when it fails testing.
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Re: The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 17:50:54

Very bad translation. But, you get the point. No one try to emulate this vocabulary as you will get called out on it!

Just when we thought we peaked a decade ago, we appear to have more energy 'produced' than ever! Of course, we probably poisoned a bunch of good aquifers already to accomplish this. However, fear not, more destruction is possible.
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Re: The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 18:17:33

pstarr wrote:No one in their right mind claimed global oil production peaked in 2005. Though in retrospective it has become quite apparent that something did happen.


Not sure what your point is.

Peak-oilers declared victory when they "called" peak conventional oil and we all know how that played out.
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Re: The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 18:56:21

pstarr wrote:No one declared victory about such a tragic event.


Staggeringly incorrect. Go read through TOD archives or dredge up some posts from that era here on the board to see all of the high-fiving that was going on. BTW, don't understand your crocodile tears over it being a "tragic" event since I know your narrative of suffering suburbanites necessitates peak oil.
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Re: The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 19:04:54

pstarr wrote:Sorry but I don't have the time or interest to troll the archives. Perhaps you can direct me to all that?


That's Adam's specialty. I'm sure he'll be on that..stat.
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Re: The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby peripato » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 19:21:21

AdamB wrote:Gail, from TOD, proclaimer of peak oil in 2008, proclaimer of high prices = bad, and proclaimer of low prices = bad, and with zero experience in energy and economics...has spoken!!! Again. Is the proclamation of doom count (for whatever reason) into the double digits yet? I think it is.

She only has to be right once. Lol.
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Re: The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 20 Oct 2017, 22:19:03

peripato wrote:She only has to be right once. Lol.


In the meantime, Gail's gotta eat, and saying the end is nigh is what puts food on the table.
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Re: The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby peripato » Sat 21 Oct 2017, 08:28:05

asg70 wrote:
peripato wrote:She only has to be right once. Lol.


In the meantime, Gail's gotta eat, and saying the end is nigh is what puts food on the table.

How is that so? Here blogsite isn't monetised, and I don't think she'd be getting many paying gigs on the speakers' circuit either.
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Re: The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 21 Oct 2017, 20:10:59

pstarr wrote:
jedrider wrote:Very bad translation. But, you get the point. No one try to emulate this vocabulary as you will get called out on it!

Just when we thought we peaked a decade ago, we appear to have more energy 'produced' than ever!
No one in their right mind claimed global oil production peaked in 2005. Though in retrospective it has become quite apparent that something did happen.


Last we heard in the evolution of doomer prophets, pstarr after a hard night of spectating at forest clear cutting events proclaimed peak oil more than a decade ago!!

Was there something interfering with your cognitive abilities then, or now? Or both?
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Re: The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 11:17:08

Well, with Brent passing $60 and WTI looking strong pushing $54, I guess we have good news and bad news:

Good news: Short term ETP doom via oil heading rapidly toward zero (including short's recent prognostications of WTI plunging below $50 toward $40 or so) is looking less likely to be in our face.

Bad news:

1). I guess the $2.19 fill-up price I had yesterday can't last with this. I was musing that the end of summer driving season had dropped the gas price, even as oil had generally been climbing in recent weeks.

2). Since according to the ETPers, people can't afford gasoline at $2, I guess that means economic doom. Oh but wait -- the news on the economy keeps generally improving (like the 3% first estimate for US GDP out today, on the back of current solid employment growth), so apparently not so much.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-pu ... 2017-10-27
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 11:48:41

I coughed up some coffee on that one. The Chevron station down the street is $2.65/g, there are plenty of stations around here where gas is $3.50/g or more. The citizens cannot be bothered to cross the street to save a quarter a gallon when filling up a 20 gallon tank - a sawbuck is not worth the extra 30 seconds it would take them.
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Re: The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 12:19:06

KaiserJeep wrote:I coughed up some coffee on that one. The Chevron station down the street is $2.65/g, there are plenty of stations around here where gas is $3.50/g or more. The citizens cannot be bothered to cross the street to save a quarter a gallon when filling up a 20 gallon tank - a sawbuck is not worth the extra 30 seconds it would take them.

Thanks for that - I just learned that a sawbuck is a $10 bill in addition to something used for lumber.

Yes, the irony is that the typical American is so rich (yet doesn't seem to feel that way) that they can just casually waste lots of money. (And then cry "poverty" when things go wrong).

One of my favorite TV shows was the Beverly Hillbillies, partly because of the many little moral lessons sprinkled through the show. Granny ranting and raving about how they were going to be in the poor house because of wasting money on nonsense like a big house, gas for the truck, new clothes and fancy vittles (and on and on) got lots of laughs - but her keen awareness of how far they'd deviated lifestyle wise from their roots would be an excellent point for many millions of Americans to take note of.

But the way most Americans behaved after the 2008-2009 big recession (as though nothing much happened, once the recovery started), I pretty much gave up on the concept of most people learning from observing re money matters.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby onlooker » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 13:46:27

http://www.alt-market.com/articles/3303 ... etrodollar
Lies and distractions surrounding the diminishing Petrodollar
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Re: The Approaching US Energy-Economic Crisis

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Fri 27 Oct 2017, 16:26:25

Outcast_Searcher wrote:-snip-
Thanks for that - I just learned that a sawbuck is a $10 bill in addition to something used for lumber.
-snip-


As they say, learn something every day. My whole life, I believed that a sawbuck was $5. I should have been saying a "fin" or a "fiver" or a "five-spot". :oops:
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