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climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 25 Feb 2019, 02:08:34

onlooker wrote:"While the number of food shocks fluctuates from year to year, the long-term trend shows they are happening more often,” said Richard Cottrell of the University of Tasmania, who led the study."
https://physicsworld.com/a/food-shocks- ... rld-warms/
Food shocks increase as world warms


Are you just going to drop every frontpage link into a thread? You're doing it a lot and I don't think it really helps matters. We've seen the links already.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby phaster » Fri 03 Apr 2020, 01:10:28

Cog wrote:Doomers love to doom.


seems the whole world now is sort of in a doomers mindset,... AND do not want to add more bad news BUT as I see things before a problem can be solved, it must first be acknowledged and then understood

long story short basically while most have their heads down looking at "screens" to watch Netflix or post on social media, I have noticed what is happening outside

the other evening for example, looked up into the sky in my back yard (which is pretty close to Downtown San Diego) and saw stars and planets like I have never seen them before,... all because “manmade” haze/smog has diminished

Image

its not rocket science but because of covid-19 and the need to social distance,... people are basically staying at home, so the typical SoCal haze/smog layer pretty much has disappeared!!!

http://www.la.curbed.com/2020/3/26/2119 ... oronavirus

what people should find interesting is the fact that there is much less man made pollution (not just in the SoCal region but also around the world) AND seems these conditions can be used to test a scientific hypothesis related to climate change

essentially a lingering smog layer along w/ jet contrails act as heat trapping insulators at night, so given the clear skies which is a result of the pandemic we should expect to see a yuge “delta” between daytime and nighttime temperatures (which will confirm that global dimming is masking the global warming effects of CO2)

NARRATOR: September 12th, 2001, the aftermath of tragedy: ironically, as America mourned, the weather all over the country was unusually clear and sunny. Eight hundred miles west of New York, in Madison, Wisconsin, climate scientist David Travis was on his way to work.

DOCTOR DAVID TRAVIS (University of Wisconsin-Whitewater): Around the 12th, later on in the day, when I was driving to work, and I noticed how bright blue and clear the sky was, and...at first I didn't think about it, then I realized the sky was unusually clear.

NARRATOR: For 15 years, Travis had been researching a relatively obscure topic: whether the vapor trails left by aircraft were having a significant effect on the weather. In the aftermath of 9/11, the entire U.S. fleet was grounded, and Travis finally had a chance to find out.

DAVID TRAVIS: It was certainly, you know, one of the tiny positives that may have come out of this—an opportunity to do research—that hopefully will never happen again.

NARRATOR: Travis suspected the grounding might make a small, but detectable, change to the weather, but what he observed was both immediate and dramatic.

DAVID TRAVIS: We found that the change in temperature range during those three days was just over one degree centigrade. And you have to realize that from a layman's perspective that doesn't sound like much, but from a climate perspective that is huge.

NARRATOR: The temperature range is the difference between the highest and the lowest temperatures in a 24-hour period. Usually, it stays much the same from day to day, even if the weather changes, but not this time. Travis had come across a new and powerful phenomenon, one which would call into question all our predictions about the future of our planet.

http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/transcripts/3310_sun.html


the circa 2005 PBS NOVA documentary is not “online” for viewing, but there is a link to the BBC global dimming documentary (w/ a Kassandra warning) that outlines how climate scientists made an interesting discovery after 9/11

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xudm8n
Given the great chasm that divides believers
AND non-believers of “man made climate change”
let’s hope that people figure things out, before it’s too late!!!


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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby Newfie » Fri 03 Apr 2020, 05:15:43

Phaster,

Yes this has been touched on here in some thread within the past 2 weeks. It is a good test to see how global dimming actually works. It is a unique opportunity to test the aerosol theories.

But yours is the first report of tangible changes I’ve seen. Living in the tropics we typically have nice clear skies.

Thanks for the report.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 03 Apr 2020, 13:24:17

Weather is beautiful here in Northern California. Clear skies. Evenly cold nights, not the shifting patterns of cold and heat we usually get during the night.

Air is cool, the sun really warms up the surface temperatures. Almost, like a pre-industrial normal, perhaps.

Except that we are already a degree or two above what should be normal for us sapiens on Earth, already.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Fri 03 Apr 2020, 19:42:32

A few weeks of cleaner air over major cities is not enough to change the worlds climate and certainly not have any effect beyond local visibility. As to my local climate/weather it is the first week in April and there remain patches of snowpack on shaded North slopes and the usual drifted locations. Snow, rain, fog ,and a bit of sunshine have all been present this week with below freezing temps at night and rising to around 50 mid day. This is exactly how I remember the first week in April from my childhood because we would go to one of those snow drifts to get snow for sugar on snow to go with my birthday cake. Sugar on snow is maple syrup boiled down to the "soft ball stage" on a candy thermometer and poured in ribbons on a pan of snow that is then twirled up on a fork or stick into a maple lollypop. Mom does the boiling but the kids get to do their own twirling. Great fun when you are five. :)
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby phaster » Sat 04 Apr 2020, 17:33:28

vtsnowedin wrote:A few weeks of cleaner air over major cities is not enough to change the worlds climate and certainly not have any effect beyond local visibility.


Au contraire,... science studies indicate otherwise

9/11 Contrails
(Steve Curwood talks with atmospheric scientist David Travis about his study)
http://www.loe.org/shows/segments.html? ... egmentID=2


Aircraft vapour trails are climate scourge
19 October 2002

Airlines could boost their emissions of the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide and still halve their impact on global warming. That is the paradoxical conclusion of a new study into the effects of commercial aviation on the environment.

https://images.newscientist.com/wp-cont ... -1_800.jpg

The CO2 emitted from their engines is not the only way aircraft affect climate. They also do so through their contrails, the long trails of water vapour and ice that form in an aircraft’s wake and which can persist for several hours. Contrails trap heat in the atmosphere by reflecting infrared radiation emitted from the Earth’s surface.


http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn2 ... e-scourge/



Design of a Flight Planning System to
Reduce Persistent Contrail Formation

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7cg-_hP13u4


and pre-covid-19,...

Airplane Contrails' Climate Impact to Triple by 2050, Study Says

Those thin white clouds that jet engines draw across the sky are leaving their mark on the climate. A new study warns that the global heat-trapping effect of contrail clouds will triple by 2050 unless airlines and airplane builders dramatically reduce emissions or air traffic patterns change.

...Those thin white clouds that jet engines draw across the sky are leaving their mark on the climate. A new study warns that the global heat-trapping effect of contrail clouds will triple by 2050 unless airlines and airplane builders dramatically reduce emissions or air traffic patterns change.

https://insideclimatenews.org/sites/def ... -529px.png

...The new study found that reducing soot pollution would be the best way to reduce the non-CO2 part of aviation's climate warming effect.

Cleaner aircraft emissions would solve part of the problem, Burkhardt said. Reducing the number of soot particles emitted by aircraft engines decreases the number of ice crystals in contrail clouds, which in turn reduces their climate impact. But even a 90 percent reduction of soot would probably not be enough to limit the climate impact of contrail clouds to 2006 levels, she added.


https://insideclimatenews.org/news/2706 ... al-warming


it's going to be interesting to see how things play out (if trends continue),... BUT basically to understand the physics model start off w/ black body radiation (where a lingering smog layer along w/ jet contrails act as heat trapping insulators at night),... otherwise bottom line for non-scientists

Image

PS FWIW

World most polluted cities 2019
...cities in ASIA (specifically india and china) dominate the top 1000 spots

AND looking at the rankings, cities in North America are pretty clean:

Mexico City 856
Los Angeles 1598
Dallas 1723
Pittsburgh 1762
Atlanta 1850
Houston 2304
Phoenix 2738
San Diego 2848
Denver 3329
Seattle 3649
San Francisco 3778
New York 3821


http://www.iqair.com/us/world-most-poll ... 50&cities=
Given the great chasm that divides believers
AND non-believers of “man made climate change”
let’s hope that people figure things out, before it’s too late!!!


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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby Newfie » Sat 04 Apr 2020, 18:05:24

VT,

I don’t think anyone said the virus would change climate change. It will provide an opportunity for scientist to improve their models. It may help people understand our impact.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby Azothius » Sat 04 Apr 2020, 18:11:11

Paul Beckwith discusses reduction in global dimming due to current economic slow down. March 22nd.


Magnitude of Global Dimming from Coronavirus Shutdowns: Part 1 of 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34e1LJ9C-mw
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby phaster » Sat 04 Apr 2020, 19:47:09

Azothius wrote:Paul Beckwith discusses reduction in global dimming due to current economic slow down. March 22nd.


Magnitude of Global Dimming from Coronavirus Shutdowns: Part 1 of 3
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=34e1LJ9C-mw


watched the three videos @ 2x speed, but personally have one question that no one else seems to be wondering about, which involves orbital dynamics (i.e. relative position of the sun vs earth)

basically in the northern hemisphere we are in the spring time period (i.e. spring equinox just happened), so the thermal mass of the northern hemisphere has been cold soaked for the past few months

we know most of the global production for consumer/industrial products are made in china/india and the USA so as I see things perhaps the high expected "delta" between day and nighttime temperatures will not be as great as if there was a sudden removal of global dimming smog had happened after a long period of the northern hemisphere being subjected to a heat soak (i.e. the summer time period where the northern hemisphere gets more sun light)

recall back in my university days, of doing a math problem that involved a thermal mass problem,... basically the problem involved calculating how long a root celler would say cool during the day because of being cold soaked

did a quick google search and found a paper that sort of describe the idea I'm thinking about

http://www.ruralcat.com/migracio_resour ... 3_2008.pdf

IOW adding in a math model factor of an "Exponential sinusoidal model for predicting temperature" the global dimming day/nighttime temperature "delta" accounting for orbital dynamics (i.e. the season)
Given the great chasm that divides believers
AND non-believers of “man made climate change”
let’s hope that people figure things out, before it’s too late!!!


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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby phaster » Mon 13 Apr 2020, 23:28:22

Image

FWIW in my part of the world,... we have had some unusually wet weather???

Storm does U-turn, drenches San Diego again, smashing rainfall records

A Pacific storm that was moving east after soaking San Diego County for days made an odd U-turn early Friday, returning to drench the region again, producing one of the wettest Aprils on record and smashing historic rainfall totals

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/wea ... raight-day

2 storms take aim at Bay Area: Here's when the rain will hit

Back-to-back storms are forecast to sweep the San Francisco Bay Area over the weekend. The first is the weaker of the two and will arrive Saturday morning. The second is slated to hit Sunday morning and will bring chilly temperatures and the heaviest storm activity the region has seen in weeks.

http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/article/w ... 177375.php


another item that seems very unusual,... we have had some pretty clear skies (throughout the SoCal region AND in the Bay Area)

L.A.’s Air Quality Is Better Than It’s Been in Decades

...‪Last month, Los Angeles experienced the longest stretch of days of “good” air since at least 1980. The federal agency’s online data goes back no further, but one expert suspects that L.A.’s air hasn’t been this clean since around the time the United States entered the Second World War.

http://www.lamag.com/citythinkblog/air-quality-covid/



Bay Area air quality sees dramatic improvement in only 24 hours

As people stay at home and off the roads in compliance with shelter-in-place guidelines set in motion two weeks ago, the air quality throughout the Bay Area has become cleaner, a small silver lining in an otherwise worrisome time.

http://www.sf.curbed.com/2020/3/27/2119 ... virus-cars


IMHO both issues seem related to "global dimming" being a man made phenomenon,...

http://www.dailymotion.com/video/xudm8n

in the 2007 IPCC report there is figure that illustrates the basic physics

Image
Given the great chasm that divides believers
AND non-believers of “man made climate change”
let’s hope that people figure things out, before it’s too late!!!


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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 14 Apr 2020, 09:59:16

phaster wrote:watched the three videos @ 2x speed


Yeah, one of the problems with the proliferation of youtube is people ramble at slow speed forever when they should have put it into text that you could skim and get to the punchline in seconds.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby phaster » Wed 22 Apr 2020, 13:32:16

Image

Image
Given the great chasm that divides believers
AND non-believers of “man made climate change”
let’s hope that people figure things out, before it’s too late!!!


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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 25 Apr 2020, 13:41:04

phaster wrote:Image


Image
Cheers!
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby GHung » Sat 25 Apr 2020, 15:57:31

Plantagenet wrote:
phaster wrote:Image


Image
Cheers!


The second graph shows primarily a couple of things:

China took up much of America's industrial production - The US and other developed countries moved a big chunk of its emissions and other waste streams to China while still increasing its consumption of goods.

The US converted a large percentage of its electrical generation from coal to gas due largely to increased natural gas production and lower costs along with restrictions placed on coal-fired plant emissions.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby Tanada » Sun 26 Apr 2020, 22:38:56

GHung wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Image
Cheers!


The second graph shows primarily a couple of things:

China took up much of America's industrial production - The US and other developed countries moved a big chunk of its emissions and other waste streams to China while still increasing its consumption of goods.

The US converted a large percentage of its electrical generation from coal to gas due largely to increased natural gas production and lower costs along with restrictions placed on coal-fired plant emissions.


Hang on there! If you read the scale on the graph from when China passed the EU and when they passed the USA each are a declined about 1 Gigaton CO2/year in emissions. This would create about 2 Gigatons of slack in world emissions, however from the time China passed the USA they continued to grow an additional 6.5 Gigatons/year in emissions more than tripling the combined cuts in the EU+USA emissions. In addition to that tripling factor you must realize that in 1990 China was producing just 2.5 Gigaton/year CO2 while currently they are producing 11.5 Gigaton/year as of 2018, an increase of 9 Gigatons/year in under 30 years time. During that period everyone outside of the named countries meaning places like Indonesia and Thailand/Malaysia/Vietnam amongst others went from 6 Gigatons/year in 1990 to 11 Gigatons/year in 2018. All told the meager declines in the USA+EU+Russia post 1990 have been swamped many times over by increases in China+India+(developing world)

While it is factually true the USA+EU moved a lot of manufacturing to China and Southeast Asia those shifts are an eye dropper of change compared to the swimming pool of development of domestic fossil fuel consumption almost everywhere outside the G-20 nations and Russia.
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Re: climate change "existential" threat to humanity

Unread postby REAL Green » Mon 27 Apr 2020, 08:33:36

Tanada wrote:Hang on there! If you read the scale on the graph from when China passed the EU and when they passed the USA each are a declined about 1 Gigaton CO2/year in emissions. This would create about 2 Gigatons of slack in world emissions, however from the time China passed the USA they continued to grow an additional 6.5 Gigatons/year in emissions more than tripling the combined cuts in the EU+USA emissions. In addition to that tripling factor you must realize that in 1990 China was producing just 2.5 Gigaton/year CO2 while currently they are producing 11.5 Gigaton/year as of 2018, an increase of 9 Gigatons/year in under 30 years time. During that period everyone outside of the named countries meaning places like Indonesia and Thailand/Malaysia/Vietnam amongst others went from 6 Gigatons/year in 1990 to 11 Gigatons/year in 2018. All told the meager declines in the USA+EU+Russia post 1990 have been swamped many times over by increases in China+India+(developing world) While it is factually true the USA+EU moved a lot of manufacturing to China and Southeast Asia those shifts are an eye dropper of change compared to the swimming pool of development of domestic fossil fuel consumption almost everywhere outside the G-20 nations and Russia.


Great analysis and a potent explaination of yes there was offshoring but more potent is the organic growth of Asia for Asia and the continued growth everywhere.
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