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Superfluous people

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby onlooker » Mon 19 Feb 2018, 15:55:39

mmasters wrote:
GHung wrote:
mmasters wrote:.......Money doesn't grow on trees......


In a sense, it does. Especially when it comes to conjuring money into existence to bail out banks, provide free loans to corporations, pay off the MIC, and to conduct wars-not-of-necessity. Just sayin'.... Our current president (self-proclaimed King of debt) just signed a conjuring of a couple of trillion more dollars.

You can only do that so much though. Eventually the debt and inflation get out of control. Obama ran up the government credit card spending like a drunken sailor and that's partially what's got us into this mess.

When Net Energy devoted to key sectors of the Economy is declining, you cannot have organic growth. You can have Debt fueled growth and as you said Mmasters it cannot be sustained too long. This appears to be exactly what is happening now in the world Economy which is being dragged down also by this huge Debt loads.
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Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 19 Feb 2018, 22:46:08

mmasters wrote:You can only do that so much though. Eventually the debt and inflation get out of control. Obama ran up the government credit card spending like a drunken sailor and that's partially what's got us into this mess.


That problem started at least three decades ago.
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Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby mmasters » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 00:29:16

Darian S wrote:
mmasters wrote:
Darian S wrote:Regards rising prices universal basic income should be pegged to inflation. Also housing and transportation as well as healthcare and education should be provided.

Money doesn't grow on trees. A yearly UBI of $10,000 for everyone in the US is around 4 trillion a year. The government only takes in about that much a year in taxes. There wouldn't be any left for Social Security, Medicare, Infrastructure, Education, Housing, and on and on. So you say, tax the rich more, well do that and they will leave the country and go somewhere else. Socialism may sound good in theory but it lacks common sense in economics. If you want to bankrupt the country and ruin your opportunities then vote for a guy like Bernie Sanders.

Well a large chunk of the population is effectively earning at least as much if not more, in many cases for doing busywork. If they become unemployed due to automation, the money doesn't vanish into thin air. It simply gets funneled to the account of the owner of the machine that replaced say the $100,000+ salary worker.

If we get 80% unemployment, it's not like the money that would have gone towards their salaries vanished along with their jobs.

The problem with taxing robots is stifling growth and innovation in the US. If you stifle growth and innovation in the US then China will use that to their advantage and come up with more innovative robots and our jobs and money will once again be going back overseas.

As for the rich they can leave, but we can nationalize all their land and resources within the nation if they do so.

This has been done in places like Cuba and Venezuela. Neither of those places are doing well...
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Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby Tanada » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 06:26:31

mmasters wrote:The problem with taxing robots is stifling growth and innovation in the US. If you stifle growth and innovation in the US then China will use that to their advantage and come up with more innovative robots and our jobs and money will once again be going back overseas.


This can be a problem but only if you insist on the Globalism metric as the only metric to measure by. The USSR for example was along with the Warsaw Pact nearly self sufficient internally in terms of manpower and resources. What doomed the USSR was lousy economic policy making use of those potential resources and manpower.

Your basic choices are the greatest degree of self sufficiency possible, or discarding the value of the poorest working class strata of society in favor of government policy of globalism above all else. You do not have to be isolationist to practice internal self sufficiency, but you do have to protect your own citizens from the global labor cost valuation. You can hate it all you want but for people living in Toledo, Ohio at a local cost of living level the wages have to be manifold what the wages are for a working class person in Bangkok or Mumbai. Part of that is simply climate. living in the tropics or sub-tropics means the poor folks don't need heating in winter for example. Most of it however is standard of living. Workers who break apart massive ships at Alang in India or the beach in Thailand whose name I forget have virtually zero worker safety protection. They get paid extremely low wages by American standards and they live in what are in essence hand built shacks made of scrap lumber they were able to gather and assemble themselves in many cases. Even the poorest workers who labor at the Toledo Shipyard have a professionally built house with natural gas, water and electricity installations up to code, a weather proof shell with insulation and so on and so forth. If all you care about is dollar cost averaging then every ship being broken should go to the desperately poor countries where the workers are discarded when seriously injured and allowed to develop chronic life shortening illnesses from breathing fumes and asbestos dust as part of their occupation.
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Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 06:49:11

Tanada,

Excellent point. Globalism can be viewed as allowing the export of poverty and pollutution you don’t want to see out your back door. Of course there are other ways of viewing it but I think this one cuts close to the human psyche.
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Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 14:41:59

We seem to be skirting around the main issue here. The large Middle Class pool of workers in the Western Nations is growing increasingly obsolete. One impact of this is obvious: there are growing numbers of unemployed, with no sources of income other than the government dole (pardon me, I meant the "earned benefits" like Social Security and Medicare, plus the "entitlements" such as Welfare). These largely are those without professional careers and college level educations. Middle Class jobs are the ones being automated, after all.

The secondary impact of large numbers of unemployed are that there are fewer Middle Class consumers. I know for example that about half of the people in the USA have no retirement plans outside of SS Income, and little to spend on luxury goods. The Upper/Middle and Upper classes are still growing, others slip downward as they lose employment for a significant portion of their working career, often what should be the most productive and lucrative years just before retirement.

This is all occurring in the context of increasing populations, peak effects of various FF's, and an increasingly sick ecology. As I have said many times, we are living in TEOTWAWKI, as did our parents and as will our children.

Your choices are to accept what is happening or to change it. To anybody with a brain, it should become obvious that a "doomstead" is the wrong approach to life. You cannot spend the last part of your life running an independant and self-sufficient homestead. Indeed, most people couldn't work that hard during their peak productivity in early adulthood. Unless your Doomstead is multi-generational and has three dozen or more members, you will fail to survive in your old age. Old people will only prosper in an extended community with services and retail and banking and all the other trappings. I just had a graphic demonstration of this visiting the wife's relatives on Nantucket. Everyone she grew up respecting as adults are (mostly) dead, and the few survivors are those who entered retirement owning their homes outright and with some form of pension to supplement SSI.

I respect most of the members here as reasonable people. Some of you are already retired, as am I. I'm just waiting for the wife to get tired of working. Some of you are probably on Plan B or even Plan C by now, each one smaller than the last. The important thing I believe is to have a plan and never to lose sight of it.

Because if you haven't figured it out yet, the Government is not your Nanny. In fact, old people in gradually increasing numbers are their primary problem, and they know that even if you do not.

Being superfluous and being dead are different things.
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Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby Newfie » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 18:06:44

That’s why it’s called prepping. You have to prep for many different things.
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Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby mmasters » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 20:40:06

KaiserJeep wrote:We seem to be skirting around the main issue here. The large Middle Class pool of workers in the Western Nations is growing increasingly obsolete. One impact of this is obvious: there are growing numbers of unemployed, with no sources of income other than the government dole (pardon me, I meant the "earned benefits" like Social Security and Medicare, plus the "entitlements" such as Welfare). These largely are those without professional careers and college level educations. Middle Class jobs are the ones being automated, after all.

The secondary impact of large numbers of unemployed are that there are fewer Middle Class consumers. I know for example that about half of the people in the USA have no retirement plans outside of SS Income, and little to spend on luxury goods. The Upper/Middle and Upper classes are still growing, others slip downward as they lose employment for a significant portion of their working career, often what should be the most productive and lucrative years just before retirement.

This is all occurring in the context of increasing populations, peak effects of various FF's, and an increasingly sick ecology. As I have said many times, we are living in TEOTWAWKI, as did our parents and as will our children.

Your choices are to accept what is happening or to change it. To anybody with a brain, it should become obvious that a "doomstead" is the wrong approach to life. You cannot spend the last part of your life running an independant and self-sufficient homestead. Indeed, most people couldn't work that hard during their peak productivity in early adulthood. Unless your Doomstead is multi-generational and has three dozen or more members, you will fail to survive in your old age. Old people will only prosper in an extended community with services and retail and banking and all the other trappings. I just had a graphic demonstration of this visiting the wife's relatives on Nantucket. Everyone she grew up respecting as adults are (mostly) dead, and the few survivors are those who entered retirement owning their homes outright and with some form of pension to supplement SSI.

I respect most of the members here as reasonable people. Some of you are already retired, as am I. I'm just waiting for the wife to get tired of working. Some of you are probably on Plan B or even Plan C by now, each one smaller than the last. The important thing I believe is to have a plan and never to lose sight of it.

Because if you haven't figured it out yet, the Government is not your Nanny. In fact, old people in gradually increasing numbers are their primary problem, and they know that even if you do not.

Being superfluous and being dead are different things.

I think the best plan is having 2 to 3 mil in the bank and that's my goal.
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Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 20 Feb 2018, 21:48:04

Tanada wrote:
This can be a problem but only if you insist on the Globalism metric as the only metric to measure by. The USSR for example was along with the Warsaw Pact nearly self sufficient internally in terms of manpower and resources. What doomed the USSR was lousy economic policy making use of those potential resources and manpower.

Your basic choices are the greatest degree of self sufficiency possible, or discarding the value of the poorest working class strata of society in favor of government policy of globalism above all else. You do not have to be isolationist to practice internal self sufficiency, but you do have to protect your own citizens from the global labor cost valuation. You can hate it all you want but for people living in Toledo, Ohio at a local cost of living level the wages have to be manifold what the wages are for a working class person in Bangkok or Mumbai. Part of that is simply climate. living in the tropics or sub-tropics means the poor folks don't need heating in winter for example. Most of it however is standard of living. Workers who break apart massive ships at Alang in India or the beach in Thailand whose name I forget have virtually zero worker safety protection. They get paid extremely low wages by American standards and they live in what are in essence hand built shacks made of scrap lumber they were able to gather and assemble themselves in many cases. Even the poorest workers who labor at the Toledo Shipyard have a professionally built house with natural gas, water and electricity installations up to code, a weather proof shell with insulation and so on and so forth. If all you care about is dollar cost averaging then every ship being broken should go to the desperately poor countries where the workers are discarded when seriously injured and allowed to develop chronic life shortening illnesses from breathing fumes and asbestos dust as part of their occupation.


But that means much lower wages have to be paid to workers in tropical places like parts of Florida and Hawaii. Similar will have to take place in areas with more temperate climate of the same country.

Also, a house following building codes for everyone will likely go beyond global biocapacity per capita. With that less than 2 global hectares, each individual on earth can only be limited to a small house shared with six other people, a few appliances (probably one electric fan, one stove, and three lights), work and other needs no more than 5 km away, etc.
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Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 21 Feb 2018, 00:16:08

Of course, there will not ever be even distribution of anything. In the post peak world, the third world country populations die off before ever reaching Middle Class prosperity. Anywhere producing refugees is effectively there already, including parts of Africa, the Middle East, and South America. They reached TEOTWAWKI, then the people walked away from their former lives.
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Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 21 Feb 2018, 07:24:40

Ralph,

Yup, you are getting it.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby evilgenius » Wed 21 Feb 2018, 11:19:28

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Newfie wrote:Here is a news big that is somewhat relevant to this topic, and many other discussions we have had.

https://nypost.com/2018/02/10/heres-ano ... lling-off/

Who is to blame when the cashier becomes obsolete?

Is society to simply “off” them, deposit in the recycle bin like a Blackberry?

Or is there some obligation to the newly poor?

Who is to blame when any job becomes obsolete as technology changes things? I'm sure the buggy whip manufacturers and those who worked for them weren't big fans of Ford's assembly lines.

A better question might be, "What are we going to do about low skilled job losses, with automation making such rapid and widespread strides"?

And I'll opine that in the US, the response from BOTH sides of the aisle, as usual, is pretty much crickets when it comes to substance or long term thinking.

I still think we should be at least testing the idea of a basic minimum income with some seriousness. But that's only haphazardly happening to some extent in parts of Europe / Scandanavia, from what I've read.


Of course, OTOH, you can't even get people to agree that a basic minimum income wouldn't provide solid middle class income, but only get people out of dire poverty (i.e. provide a backstop and some transitional help), but we still seem to have too many people who think that other peoples' money grows on trees. (See Switzerland).

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36454060

I think the only answer is to migrate people into ownership. There will have to be classes of ownership, pitted against each other. They will have to seek equilibrium.
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Re: Dow Jones Stock Market 2018

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 21 Feb 2018, 13:47:22

evilgenius wrote:-snip-
I think the only answer is to migrate people into ownership. There will have to be classes of ownership, pitted against each other. They will have to seek equilibrium.


You want to "migrate people into ownership"? That's what a mortgage does. I paid mortgages on three homes, and re-financed four times. In the beginning, the bank owns the home. When you have paid off the mortgage balance, you own it.

If you cannot save 10-20% for a down payment, if you cannot qualify for a loan because of financial irregularities, that's on you. Likewise if you ever defaulted on a loan like a student loan, YOU torpedoed your credit. If you are 30 years old and not living in the last home you will ever buy on credit, you have already screwed up your own life.

EG, nobody ever said that life was easy or fair. Nor can you make it that way with legislation. There are 195 nations with 195 slightly different flavors of Capitalism. If you don't care for the place you are in, move somewhere else, as did Ibon.
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Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby ralfy » Wed 21 Feb 2018, 20:52:12

As stated elsewhere, the catch with automation is that robots and computers aren't consumers.
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Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby diemos » Wed 21 Feb 2018, 22:01:44

Not a catch, a feature.

In a world of decreasing natural resources, decreasing the number of people consuming resources makes more available for the elite. That's why the push to automate everything.
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Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 21 Feb 2018, 23:14:59

You all are a bunch of conspiracy nuts if you think there is any motive to automation other than profit. Each and every manufacturer is thinking about producing more goods with a lower investment. Robots and other automation machinery allow a given amount of capital investment to produce a certain amount of product. Once the technology to automate production of a specific product exists, those manufacturers still paying for human labor cannot compete.

The fact that massive numbers of people are unemployed by automation is not a "feature", either. If you own the means of production, you obviously want more product consumers, not fewer. The fact that the collective result of everyone implementing automation is reducing the consumer base is a huge inconvenience for any corporation, their assumption will always be that if they can make products with higher quality and cheaper prices, that they will dominate the market. That did in fact used to be true, after all.

Believe it or not, there is NOBODY in charge of the economy. Not even the government. At the most, they tweek the money supply, the interest rates, and the tax laws to accelerate the economy. That is a long way from being in charge and executing a plan.

There is NOBODY in charge, and NOBODY looking out for your welfare but you. If some slimy politician says different, hold on to your wallet and leave the area he's in.
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Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 13:00:56

Actually we are very little in control of ourselves. Most of our actions and “decisions” are preprogrammed into our genetic material, a substantial fraction of which originated with viruses.

Recently there has been a scientific line of inquiry as to just how much of little we are in control. The outcome was just about zero. We have almost no self control.

At least one serious scientist refers to humans as “meat robots.”

From Wiki

One significant finding of modern studies is that a person's brain seems to commit to certain decisions before the person becomes aware of having made them. Researchers have found delays of about half a second (discussed in sections below). With contemporary brain scanning technology, other scientists in 2008 were able to predict with 60% accuracy whether subjects would press a button with their left or right hand up to 10 seconds before the subject became aware of having made that choice.[5] These and other findings have led some scientists, like Patrick Haggard, to reject some forms of "free will".
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Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby roccman » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 15:09:04

Newfie wrote:Actually we are very little in control of ourselves. Most of our actions and “decisions” are preprogrammed into our genetic material, a substantial fraction of which originated with viruses.

Recently there has been a scientific line of inquiry as to just how much of little we are in control. The outcome was just about zero. We have almost no self control.

At least one serious scientist refers to humans as “meat robots.”

From Wiki

One significant finding of modern studies is that a person's brain seems to commit to certain decisions before the person becomes aware of having made them. Researchers have found delays of about half a second (discussed in sections below). With contemporary brain scanning technology, other scientists in 2008 were able to predict with 60% accuracy whether subjects would press a button with their left or right hand up to 10 seconds before the subject became aware of having made that choice.[5] These and other findings have led some scientists, like Patrick Haggard, to reject some forms of "free will".


Tolstoy in his novel War and Peace opines humans are not entirely free nor entirely bound to fate. He also believes it was not Napoleon's genius rather the "will" of the masses that led to the march on Russia. Of course Napy's "genius" failed him and his army was slaughtered leaving russia.

Dostoyevsky in his novel Crime and Punishment opines there are two classes of people - those who breed and those who destroy for the sake of progress. And that both classes have a right to exist. Contrary to Tolstoy - Dostoyevsky believes in genius as the primary factor influencing "will". I don't agree with him.

Douglas Adams in his novel Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy opines humans were not given enough spark to be wise yet just enough to be a rebellious slave.

Colin Wilson in his book The Outsider opines woman are more complete than men - this is why men are predators towards women. Men think that by "possessing" a woman - he will feel complete - he does until the sun rises the following morning - then the giant hole in his chest reopens.

Rudolph Steiner opines in his essay The Acanthus Leaf that "something needs to be removed" to make humans "right". to wit: the graver's chisel and the driving chisel.

Gnostic lore suggests humans are slaves. Cormac McCarthy subscribes to gnostic lore.

George Price proved mathematically that humans are most likely to do good things to those closely related by blood. "Loving" our children is easy. I think love is a trap.

I have a theory that most closely matches Adam's and Steiner's opinions coupled with gnostic lore and Kaballistic ideas of "gathering all the sparks". That progressively over time - humans are implanted (upon birth) with less spark, then the previous generation, in an effort to produce a compliant - yet still "feel free" slave. The other way to look at it - Adam and Eve had 50/50 of all spark ever available to the demiurge. You and i have been fractalized over the millenia.

Then there is the New Jerusalem or Ark of Upnepishtem, the preserver of life (or the cube). Here i think is where America plays its own role in this great tragedy of "free will" VS "fate".

Oh and Das Rhiengold - Wagner - Oden...ah it's all there folks...it's all hidden in plain site.

Related to AI. AI will never be able to interpret data as subtly as humans can. Even a trillion years of AI evolution into the future won't move the needle. AI cannot achieve Phi. Humans (and plants/animals) can.
Last edited by roccman on Thu 22 Feb 2018, 16:54:27, edited 7 times in total.
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Re: Superfluous people

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Thu 22 Feb 2018, 16:01:12

That's enough. You gave me a stomach ache.
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