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The Dutch desease spreads to the world?!

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

The Dutch desease spreads to the world?!

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 10 Mar 2017, 05:27:25

http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gener ... l-Gas.html
"
The Groningen field has been both a blessing and a curse for the Dutch. Since its discovery in 1959 the Dutch have reaped huge financial benefits from having their own secure and abundant source of natural gas. Beyond that, the country has, until recently, been a major exporter of natural gas to its European neighbors.

But the field has also proven to be a drag on the rest of the economy, inflicting what has been dubbed the "Dutch disease." In short, the Dutch disease refers to negative effects that a huge natural resource find can visit upon a society. These include a decline in other sectors of the economy and a strong currency which makes exports less affordable to foreign buyers. The moniker "Dutch disease" results from the fact that The Netherlands was the first place such effects were studied in detail.....

First, there were the earthquakes linked to drilling and production operations in Groningen which have forced the government (part owner of the field) to scale back production to reduce the frequency and severity of those quakes. This production decline of more than 50 percent has meant a serious loss of revenue for the government which used those revenues for decades to supplement the government's budget. Government gas revenues dropped by more than half from €13 billion to around €5 billion from 2013 to 2014.

Second, as a result of the production cutbacks The Netherlands is now a net importer of natural gas, instantly losing its self-sufficiency status. Europe's gas now will likely have to come increasingly from Russia whose relations with Europe are replete with complications.

Third, the Dutch have failed to prepare for this day. Instead, they blithely made themselves deeply dependent on natural gas for their energy needs. Some 98 percent of Dutch homes use natural gas for heating and cooking. Renewable energy makes up a paltry 5.5 percent of the country's energy mix as of 2014....

Fourth, the Dutch are still obliged to honor long-term contracts which force them to deliver substantial quantities of natural gas to customers outside the country. The country is increasingly facing the strange predicament of having to import more and more natural gas to offset what it must ship abroad..."


This is in a country whose dominant field, Groningen, is now 80 percent depleted.

***********************

Are the netherlands a paradigmatic (bad) example for the world not preparing for the PEAK OIL GAS COAL URANIUM ?

For sure it is. And we in Europe (here in Germany ~18% gas import Holland ) will pay the price

PEAK OIL

M_B_S

https://www.investing.com/analysis/the- ... -200176925
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Re: The Dutch desease spreads to the world?!

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 10 Mar 2017, 10:33:51

"First, there were the earthquakes linked to drilling and production operations in Groningen..." Those "earth quakes" are just very minor tremors that have caused minor damage to brick and motor for the most part. Haven't even seen a report of a Band-Aid being needed. LOL

"This production decline...has meant a serious loss of revenue for the government which used those revenues for decades to supplement the government's budget. Government gas revenues dropped by more than half from €13 billion to around €5 billion from 2013 to 2014." So the hundreds of $billions the govt has received over the last 40+ years so fund its envied social programs HAS NOT been a good thing? Likewise it would be better off NOT RECIEVING $6 BILLION in revenue today?

"Second, as a result of the production cutbacks The Netherlands is now a net importer of natural gas, instantly losing its self-sufficiency status. Europe's gas now will likely have to come increasingly from Russia whose relations with Europe are replete with complications." So better to have been a net importer of NG for the last 4 decades? Better to have no domestic production and be 100% dependent upon imports from Russia et al?

Third, the Dutch have failed to prepare for this day. Instead, they blithely made themselves deeply dependent on natural gas for their energy needs. Some 98 percent of Dutch homes use natural gas for heating and cooking." So it would have been better for the Dutch to have burned billions of pounds of coal for their energy source? After all I'm sure the Dutch govt wouldn't let its citizens freeze in the dark. LOL.

""Fourth, the Dutch...deliver substantial quantities of natural gas to customers outside the country." So getting revenue from NG sales to help offset the cost of importing NG is a bad thing? And eventually when those long term contracts expire the Dutch govt can reduce imports.

So again we see a long explanation why it's a bad thing to have a huge domestic source of an energy commodity a society desperately requires. Better to have paid $billions for imported coal and increased the country's GHG footprint. Go ahead...keep trying. Look forward to more examples of why being poor is better then not. LOL.
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Re: The Dutch desease spreads to the world?!

Unread postby M_B_S » Fri 10 Mar 2017, 11:27:27

@ Rockman

Much of the Netherlands will be under water @ the end of this century so for what prepare?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A1H0qwidxJQ
Ironie off.

Your third point is the critical one prepare for the post peak fossil fuel world or go "under water".

The Party is soon over thats it.

PEAK OIL

M_B_S
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Re: The Dutch desease spreads to the world?!

Unread postby sparky » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 09:07:13

.
as for being underwater ,
the good Lord has tried to drown those pesky clod thumping dutch for centuries !
somehow they managed to remain dry while under sea level
Schiphol airport in Amsterdam has freaked a lot of newbies pilots when landing
their altimeter was screaming that they were crossing the Zero altitude level and their wheels were still in the air

P.S. it's not "desease" , it's disease ,
this is the title of a thread , some correct spelling would indicate a modicum of care
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Re: The Dutch desease spreads to the world?!

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 12 Mar 2017, 19:50:26

"Much of the Netherlands will be under water @ the end of this century so for what prepare?" But for now and the last 4 decades life hasn't been too bad for the Dutch thanks to those NG reserves. And the drowning Dutch come 2100? F*ck em...I don't know any of them. LOL. And they would still be drowning even if the Dutch had never generated one cubic meter of GHG.
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Re: The Dutch desease spreads to the world?!

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 13 Mar 2017, 05:43:32

I like your suggestion about managing change rather than letting it happen. People fear the kind of complexity that gives them options when long term trends end. They would rather offer past ways of doing things as solutions, though, than new ideas. Those things work, but come with constraints that don't match what contemporary society has come to expect. Every time there is enough prosperity, therefore, people avoid thinking about them. They also throw out the new with the old, and talk of preparation or planning is silenced altogether. That's kind of what's happening with peak oil. People don't want to buy their eggs from their neighbors backyard chicken farm and they don't want to gain extensive knowledge about composting, so they whistle as they pass the proverbial graveyard. Those aren't the only options. There is innovation, but that comes from the unknown, and that is scary too. Fortunately for us, there is more critical mass developing around various new ideas than there used to be. Solar, for instance, used to be about as popular as composting.
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