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Saudi Aramco IPO

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 13:45:17

Here's an interesting take on the new MPC estimate of 3.5 million barrels/day of oil production for Ghawar, from a story reposted on the PeakOil.com news page:

ghawar-nightmare

This person is claiming that the new D & M review of the MPC for Ghawar and other Saudi oilfields isn't actually an estimate of the current MPC for Ghawar and the other Saudi Oilfields, but instead is an estimate of the average MPC over the next 50 years.

In this case the numbers in the D & M report would just be the results of numerical model runs rather then actually being the current MPC numbers that the D & M report says they are.

It really amazes me when people don't understand what they read. I see this so often. Many people see what they want to see---their wires are crossed somehow so they don't understand what the words they are reading actually say.

The D & M report clearly states the MPC numbers for Ghawar are the best estimate of the current actual number, reflecting the current actual condition of the oilfield. Its clearly not a number from a numerical model projecting production five decades into the future because the D & M report never says that.

Its D & M's best estimate of the current MPC for Ghawar.

And its interesting that its more than 20% lower then MPC estimates for Ghawar made just a few years ago.

The D & M independent review therefore implies that production at Ghawar has now fallen significantly from its peak.

How hard is that to understand? Just take an honest look at the data.

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 16:30:15

well first off it isn't MPC it is MSC...maximum spare capacity. The number is set by the government for the whole country and it is up to Aramco to stick to it by moving capacity around amongst the fields.

from the prospectus

MSC refers to the average maximum number of barrels per day of crude oil that can be produced for one year during any future planning period, after taking into account all planned capital expenditures and maintenance, repair and operating costs, and after being given three months to make operational adjustments. The Company incurs substantial costs to maintain MSC and, although the Company has historically utilised a significant amount of this spare capacity, there can be no assurance that it will do so in the future. In addition, the Government has decided in the past and may in the future decide to increase MSC.


and

The Company actively manages its prolific reserves base in accordance with the Kingdom’s laws and regulations to maximise long-term value while optimising ultimate recovery from its fields. Because of the size and number of its fields and MSC, the Company is able to maintain its desired level of overall production by tapping into new reservoirs when required to improve long term value through portfolio capacity optimisation. This approach, which differs from the typical industry practice of maximising production rates per field, is more capital efficient given the nature of the resources available and leads to more stable production and higher ultimate oil recoveries.


Furthermore, the Company’s MSC and integrated logistics network allow it to vary crude oil production, which combined with their compatibility with global refining systems, provides the Company with a unique ability to respond to changes in demand for the Company’s crude oil grades.


Bottom line is the MSC applies for a one year period, Aramco has the ability to move around its production from field to field in order to maximize recovery as well as take advantage of changing demand for various crude types.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 17:46:16

it isn't MPC it is MSC...maximum spare capacity.


I know all these acronyms can be confusing, but nonetheless it is highly amusing when someone gets on a high horse and pretends to be an expert on a topic then makes a boneheaded error.

Actually MSC stands for maximum SUSTAINABLE capacity.

:lol: :-D :razz:

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 18:23:56

I know all these acronyms can be confusing, but nonetheless it is highly amusing when someone gets on a high horse and pretends to be an expert on a topic then makes a boneheaded error.


You were the one thinking it was MPC (an acronym not ever mentioned in the prospectus). Pot meet kettle. :roll:
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Thu 11 Apr 2019, 18:40:55

and I would add that the acronym MSC which is used continuously in the document is not defined as Maximum Sustainable Capacity. Someone may have decided thats what it means but the prospectus does not say that. What it does say is

MSC ....The average maximum number of barrels per day of crude oil that can be produced for one year during any future planning period, after taking into account all planned capital expenditures and maintenance, repair and operating costs, and after being given three months to make operational adjustments.

this is in effect the definition of total spare capacity used by others

what ARAMCO meant exactly by MSC may be up for question, what isn't up for question is they did not use the acronym MPC which in the oil and gas world is used interchangeably with Marathon Petroleum Corporation.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 00:32:50

... the acronym MSC which is used continuously in the document is not defined as Maximum Sustainable Capacity.....


It was amusing when you first demonstrated your ignorance of oilfield terminology by incorrectly defining what MSC is.

Its even funnier now that you are insisting on making the same mistake even after the facts have been explained to you. :lol: :P :-D :) 8) :razz: :twisted: :roll:

----------------

Look---I'll help you out. Check out this glossary of common acronyms used in the oil biz.

Check the "petroleum engineering" section of the glossary. There you'll find MSC is an acronym for Maximum Sustainable Capacity.....not Maximum "Spare" Capacity as you are claiming. Try to be sensible and accept reality, OK? Its not a big deal that you've made a mistake---everybody makes mistakes. But for once demonstrate that you are capable of acting like a grown up. Please try to acknowledge reality this once.

MSC is the acronym for maximum sustainable capacity

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 09:58:50

Look---I'll help you out. Check out this glossary of common acronyms used in the oil biz.


Not sure where the author of this "glossary" gets his terms from as no source for the definition is provided. It is not an acronym widely used in the oil industry as you no doubt know since this is the only "glossary" that has it. The Schlumberger Oilfield Glossary which is the industry go to for all acronyms commonly used does not contain it and that glossary has been continually updated for the last twenty years. MSC is an acronym used all over the place, here is a link with 202 uses https://acronyms.thefreedictionary.com/MSC

Irrespective let me remind you that the prospectus does not define what the acronym MSC means in its expanded form other than to define it in their definitions section as:

The average maximum number of barrels per day of crude oil that can be produced for one year during any future planning period, after taking into account all planned capital expenditures and maintenance, repair and operating costs, and after being given three months to make operational adjustments.


that is the definition...what the letters stand for is immaterial given we know what they mean ...they defined it.

As to the rest of your blather let me also remind you that you claimed it was MPC....what the frig does that mean? Please find us where that acronym is used in the prospectus or better yet find where it is used in the oil and gas industry other than to describe Marathon Petroleum Corporation. Not sure why you appear to be so smug here when it is clear you have never read the prospectus. :roll:
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 16:09:09

MSC is an acronym used all over the place, here is a link with 202 uses https://acronyms.thefreedictionary.com/MSC


Now you're being silly. Citing totally unrelated acroynms that have nothing to do with the oil biz is intellectually dishonest and a total waste of time.

Why not just face facts? The acronym MSC in the oil biz refers to the MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE CAPACITY of oilfields. This term has been in usage for decades in the oil biz. For instance, check out the definition given by the Oil and Gas Dictionary

maximum+sustainable+capacity

Do you get it now?

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 17:39:39

Why not just face facts? The acronym MSC in the oil biz refers to the MAXIMUM SUSTAINABLE CAPACITY of oilfields. This term has been in usage for decades in the oil biz. For instance, check out the definition given by the Oil and Gas Dictionar


I know what maximum sustainable capacity means, please show where in that dictionary it uses the acronym MSC? It doesn't.

Which is why I said it doesn't frigging matter what MSC stands for as Aramco defines precisely what it means under the terms used. It could stand for virtually anything in terms of words but the definition is the definition in terms of this agreement. That is the way legal documents work...when something is defined in the terms portion that definition holds throughout the document. The following from the prospectus.

MSC - The average maximum number of barrels per day of crude oil that can be produced for one year during any future planning period, after taking into account all planned capital expenditures and maintenance, repair and operating costs, and after being given three months to make operational adjustments.


I'm still waiting to see where it states MPC somewhere in that document. You want to get to talk about pointing to unrelated acronyms?
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 18:12:33

, please show where in that dictionary it uses the acronym MSC? It doesn't.


Jeez you are slow. We are making progress though--- you seem to have given up on your dumb idea that MSC stands for maximum spare capacity.

I'll try once again and see if you can get it this time.

1. Acronyms are abbreviations. They are formed by taking the first letter of each word in a set of words that is being abbreviated.

2. The acronym MSC used in the Aramco releases concerning the oil production capability of Ghawar and other Saudi oilfields stands for Maximum Sustainable Capacity, which is defined in the dictionary of oil and gas which I linked to in my last post. The first letter of Maximum is M---the first letter of Sustainable is S and the first letter of Capacity is C, so the acronym for Maximum Sustainable Capacity is MSC.

3. Do you get it now? :lol: :P :roll: :razz: :-D

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Fri 12 Apr 2019, 19:27:29

2. The acronym MSC used in the Aramco releases concerning the oil production capability of Ghawar and other Saudi oilfields stands for Maximum Sustainable Capacity, which is defined in the dictionary of oil and gas which I linked to in my last post. The first letter of Maximum is M---the first letter of Sustainable is S and the first letter of Capacity is C, so the acronym for Maximum Sustainable Capacity is MSC.


does it say that in the Prospectus? If so where? Let me make it simple for you it does not.

They define MSC as

MSC - The average maximum number of barrels per day of crude oil that can be produced for one year during any future planning period, after taking into account all planned capital expenditures and maintenance, repair and operating costs, and after being given three months to make operational adjustments.

that definition doesn't match yours of maximum sustainable capacity and here again the questions you keep dodging:

1. where in your "dictionary" does it say maximum sustainable capacity is denoted by MSC? It doesn't. That's the simple answer.
2. where in the prospectus do they even mention an acronym MPC which you claimed they did? It doesn't. That's the simple answer.

OK. And because you are a bit slow when it comes to contract language apparently....when they define a term which they did in the prospectus that is precisely what they mean and what it means. Did they say maximum sustainable capacity? No they did not. Did they mean that? Who knows given this is not a common acronym in the industry. And in fact it doesn't matter because they define it. But if you can find somewhere a definition matching exactly what Aramco uses in the prospectus and uses that acronym, well then more power to you.

and the final question:
3. WTF does it matter what the initials MSC stand for? They define the term and that is all that matters.

you are making assumptions that are unwarranted at the same time as trying to steer the conversation away from your original claim about something called "MPC".

Give it a break. You are merely making yourself look more foolish with each post.
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 11:18:10

MSC - The average maximum number of barrels per day of crude oil that can be produced for one year during any future planning period, after taking into account all planned capital expenditures and maintenance, repair and operating costs, and after being given three months to make operational adjustments.


Now you've got it. Finally.

I see you've abandoned your idiotic claim that MSC in the prospectus was an acronym for "maximum spare capacity."

Its about time. I had only had to explain it to you eight times before you got it. :lol: :-D :roll: :) :mrgreen:

SHEESH!

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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 12:22:00

Now you've got it. Finally.


Really? That definition doesn't say "maximum sustainable capacity" anywhere does it? How do you suddenly think this supports your argument? Give your head a shake.

I see you've abandoned your idiotic claim that MSC in the prospectus was an acronym for "maximum spare capacity."


well that's a good one coming from the moron who claimed it is "MPC". Once again show us where that acronym appears in the prospectus. Lets go back to what you wrote

Here's an interesting take on the new MPC estimate of 3.5 million barrels/day of oil production for Ghawar, from a story reposted on the PeakOil.com news page:

ghawar-nightmare

This person is claiming that the new D & M review of the MPC for Ghawar and other Saudi oilfields isn't actually an estimate of the current MPC for Ghawar and the other Saudi Oilfields, but instead is an estimate of the average MPC over the next 50 years.

In this case the numbers in the D & M report would just be the results of numerical model runs rather then actually being the current MPC numbers that the D & M report says they are.

It really amazes me when people don't understand what they read. I see this so often. Many people see what they want to see---their wires are crossed somehow so they don't understand what the words they are reading actually say.

The D & M report clearly states the MPC numbers for Ghawar are the best estimate of the current actual number, reflecting the current actual condition of the oilfield. Its clearly not a number from a numerical model projecting production five decades into the future because the D & M report never says that.

Its D & M's best estimate of the current MPC for Ghawar.

And its interesting that its more than 20% lower then MPC estimates for Ghawar made just a few years ago.

The D & M independent review therefore implies that production at Ghawar has now fallen significantly from its peak.

How hard is that to understand? Just take an honest look at the data.


Besides referencing an acronym that doesn't exist you also showed your ignorance of how any of this is done. Degolyer and Macnaughton have nothing to do with MSC...they don't designate it and they do not calculate it. What they do is look at the reserves for each field and report on that. The only place that production levels come into play in their analysis is when they calculate an NPV for the field reserves and that is based on production values given to them. If you bothered to read the prospectus or the excerpts I have posted here you would realize it is the government of SA that sets the level of MSC for Aramco and Aramco then decides how to distribute the MSC around amongst their fields keeping in mind they want to maximize recovery and take advantage of changing demand for various oil grades.
It might help if you actually read the prospectus before you beak off about someone else's understanding of it. :roll:
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Re: Saudi Aramco IPO

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 13 Apr 2019, 12:26:30

Give your head a shake.


Bonk your head into a table.

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