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Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

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Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 22 Jan 2017, 15:19:54

The Chinese miracle was largely founded on the transfer of hundreds of millions of people from the rural hinterlands to the cities where they filled the factories.
Now it appears that they have exhausted the apparently limitless supply of fresh workers!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t487ILVf87k
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 22 Jan 2017, 15:40:14

Yes, but I think what they have exhausted is their ability to continue to grow and find jobs for all these new workers. Lot of peaks are converging just now in the world
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby kiwichick » Sun 22 Jan 2017, 16:05:37

China's sustainable population is estimated at approx. 400 million ......so they are about 1 billion over their sustainable limit


https://www.populationmatters.org/docum ... _index.pdf
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby kublikhan » Sun 22 Jan 2017, 16:34:41

onlooker wrote:Yes, but I think what they have exhausted is their ability to continue to grow and find jobs for all these new workers. Lot of peaks are converging just now in the world
If that was the case they would not be importing workers from Vietnam as described in the video. Instead, the blame was put on rising expectations of Chinese labor. They want higher pay, more benefits, easier workload, etc. The kinds of things labor starts to demand as a country transitions from low to middle income. However factories originally opened up in China precisely because it was low pay, low benefit, high workload, etc. When these demands get too expensive the factories pack up and move to other low income countries such as Vietnam. Or hire cheaper Vietnamese immigrants. Still, China is not just closing cheap labor factories it is also opening up new factories that are higher up the food chain. It's a transition South Korea went through several decades back. Now it's China's turn to move up the value chain.
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 22 Jan 2017, 16:39:11

kublikhan wrote:
onlooker wrote:Yes, but I think what they have exhausted is their ability to continue to grow and find jobs for all these new workers. Lot of peaks are converging just now in the world
If that was the case they would not be importing workers from Vietnam as described in the video. Instead, the blame was put on rising expectations of Chinese labor. They want higher pay, more benefits, easier workload, etc. The kinds of things labor starts to demand as a country transitions from low to middle income. However factories originally opened up in China precisely because it was low pay, low benefit, high workload, etc. When these demands get too expensive the factories pack up and move to other low income countries such as Vietnam. Or hire cheaper Vietnamese immigrants. Still, China is not just closing cheap labor factories it is also opening up new factories that are higher up the food chain. It's a transition South Korea went through several decades back. Now it's China's turn to move up the value chain.

This is the key point in the video, Chines labour is no longer the cheapest in the world, so big business is looking to the next cheaper country down the line, for China to prevent this they need to import people to reduce wages again.

Sounds crazy, but this is how the elites think when they look at increasing their money mountains.
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby phaster » Sun 22 Jan 2017, 16:54:47

dolanbaker wrote:big business is looking to the next cheaper country down the line, for China to prevent this they need to import people to reduce wages again.

Sounds crazy, but this is how the elites think when they look at increasing their money mountains.


thanks to mr trump (among others), expect more "robots" which should drive down production costs

http://www.cbsnews.com/videos/are-robot ... -growth-3/

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AYshVbcEmUc

only question is, what "work" will be left for the unskilled?
Given the great chasm that divides believers
AND non-believers of “man made climate change”
let’s hope that people figure things out, before it’s too late!!!


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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 22 Jan 2017, 17:29:05

I think what we are actually seeing is the total impoverishment of the masses and a total two tier system of the haves and have nots. You guys just in this thread have pointed out just two trends that are steering the world in this direction. Technology and cutting of costs especially in the labor force. Honestly, this is a total and absolute disenfranchisement of the poor masses around the world especially in third world countries. China is where this is acutely playing out. Meantime, all the planet is being squeezed by limits in the context of natural resources limits. Even worse a deterioration of the planet's ability to act as a source and sink to our economic activities. I do not see any manner to soften our descent. What I see simply is a push to extract profits at any cost both human and to the natural world. So in fact instead of trying to soften our descent especially for the disenfranchised masses, I see us making it all worse in the short term for most people and in the long term for everyone. Oh and sorry for the rant, but we should keep an eye on the big picture
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 22 Jan 2017, 17:38:30

Last week saw that the Chinese economy grew at 6.7%. What part of 6.7% amounts to "suffering"? Perhaps President Trump will pull a miracle out of his ass and make the USA suffer with a 3-fold increase in growth. LOL.
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby dolanbaker » Sun 22 Jan 2017, 17:44:31

ROCKMAN wrote:Last week saw that the Chinese economy grew at 6.7%. What part of 6.7% amounts to "suffering"? LOL.

When you want 8%, 6% isn't enough!
The only "suffering" is the actual returns are lower than the projected returns.
Chinese workers wages are rising faster than the profits and that simply won't do (in the minds of the elite)!
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby phaster » Sun 22 Jan 2017, 18:00:01

ROCKMAN wrote:Last week saw that the Chinese economy grew at 6.7%. What part of 6.7% amounts to "suffering"? Perhaps President Trump will pull a miracle out of his ass and make the USA suffer with a 3-fold increase in growth. LOL.


FWIW chinese economic figures are reported to be "unreliable"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... mbers.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/27/busi ... .html?_r=0

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35341869

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexch ... se-economy

http://origin-www.bloombergview.com/art ... we-thought

in other words think of it the "economic" numbers akin to self reported "oil reserves" (i.e. to be taken w/ a grain of salt)
Given the great chasm that divides believers
AND non-believers of “man made climate change”
let’s hope that people figure things out, before it’s too late!!!


www.TinyURL.com/HowBigIsTheEarth
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 22 Jan 2017, 18:26:31

kublikhan wrote:
onlooker wrote:Yes, but I think what they have exhausted is their ability to continue to grow and find jobs for all these new workers. Lot of peaks are converging just now in the world
If that was the case they would not be importing workers from Vietnam as described in the video. ... Still, China is not just closing cheap labor factories it is also opening up new factories that are higher up the food chain. It's a transition South Korea went through several decades back. Now it's China's turn to move up the value chain.

kub, you're right. But trying to use logic or data to dissuade hard core short term hard-crash doomers is futile.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sun 22 Jan 2017, 18:29:24

phaster wrote:
ROCKMAN wrote:Last week saw that the Chinese economy grew at 6.7%. What part of 6.7% amounts to "suffering"? Perhaps President Trump will pull a miracle out of his ass and make the USA suffer with a 3-fold increase in growth. LOL.


FWIW chinese economic figures are reported to be "unreliable"

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/econ ... mbers.html

https://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/27/busi ... .html?_r=0

http://www.bbc.com/news/business-35341869

http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexch ... se-economy

http://origin-www.bloombergview.com/art ... we-thought

in other words think of it the "economic" numbers akin to self reported "oil reserves" (i.e. to be taken w/ a grain of salt)

OTOH, the doomers on this site have been predicting a China "hard crash" constantly for several years now. To go along with the false prediction of a hard global crash, a hard US crash, a hard resources crash, a hard food crash, running out of oil, etc.

Endlessly repeating the same incorrect meme accomplishes what? Does it make your ilk feel superior?
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby onlooker » Sun 22 Jan 2017, 20:07:56

Outcast, your pegging some of us inaccurately. I know a number of posters here including myself who have not offered specific dates for any doomerish outcome . In fact the true incorrect meme is that of do not worry be happy for business as usual will continue indefinitely. Limits to Growth study was not wrong, Paul Ehrlich "Population Bomb" was not wrong, Mathew Simmons was not wrong. Some simply have prematurely predicted a particular outcome. That DOES not mean that outcome will not occur. Resources are being depleted as we speak, population is increasing as we speak, pollution is increasing as we speak, climate is further destabilizing as we speak. That is not predictions, that is happening. To deny this is lying. That is why I just made that above post. Chinese growth is not suffering from peak people but peak everything else. Our civilization is on a downward curve it is all around us, our planet is over stressed and waning in its life sustaining capabilities, it is all around us. Only an intentional willful ignorance is preventing you and others from acknowledging it.
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 22 Jan 2017, 20:23:01

The catch is that producers expect more workers (who will have difficulty finding work) to buy goods produced through automation, and robots aren't consumers. That means governments and businesses will have to find ways to make more people (including those who aren't young) skilled. Otherwise, there won't be enough sales of goods and services produced.

Meanwhile, increased production and sales of goods and services means more energy and material resources used each time, and that negates lower labor costs due to limits to growth.
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby EnergyUnlimited » Thu 02 Feb 2017, 06:51:23

Currently growth is rather in delusion, not in economy.
We understand it and elites also understand it, much better than we do.
Economy needs a really substantial reset.
What about general war involving China and US?
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby ralfy » Mon 06 Feb 2017, 09:40:36

It is very likely that there will be a reset, but not one that most imagine.
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby kublikhan » Mon 06 Feb 2017, 16:15:44

pstarr wrote:It's what they do. It's their modus operandi. Adam, Kub and outcaste (like Mos6502, reservegrowth, shortonsense, ennui etc in the past) attack a hypothetical 'doomer' instead of successfully arguing facts. They always hit . . . and run when you destroy their arguments.
You are projecting here Pstarr. Every single time I argue facts you run away. You did it with Moore's law. You did it with pipeline construction. And it's happening again in the ETP thread.
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 06 Feb 2017, 18:16:42

onlooker wrote:Outcast, your pegging some of us inaccurately.

Sorry for the misunderstanding.

I did NOT say all doomers are short term hard crash doomers. I am a long term pessimist myself, given population growth, AGW, and human nature.

So I'm not pegging all doomers at all.

I stand by my observation that many short term hard crash doomers around here make lots of short term forecasts of doom, and their track record is very poor. I've been making this discussion on and off, on various threads on this site for years, and I've been consistent in that context.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Chinese growth suffering from "Peak People"

Unread postby ralfy » Tue 07 Feb 2017, 20:36:59

Short-term, long-term, it won't matter.
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