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100 mb/d ?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

100 mb/d ?

Unread postby sparky » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 15:48:18

.
As the world production relentlessly rise and reach 97millions barrels a day ,
is the "magic" number of 100 Mb/d around the corner ?

Many people discuss the timing of a peak , I would rather talk about the level of production reached .


The case for YES is pretty straightforward ,
the world supply/demand has been steadily increasing with population and social progress across all countries
goaded by the prospect of financial rewards and using a lot of money , a dedicated bunch of professional are looking to increase the production , as they have done for more than a century , opening up new provinces and resource base

The case for NO is a bit more tricky ,
the number of big discoveries is now a paltry thing ,while the rise in demand make depletion increasingly severe.
the production curve while still on the up is showing some slowing down ,
unless some "super giants" are found , crude oil production might well reach a plateau ,
the tar sands , extra heavies and tight oil sources have some in-build limits to their scaling up

I will personally observe with some trepidation the production figure ,

are we climbing to the last stage of the plateau ?
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby ralfy » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 21:02:41

I recall one feature in 2006 where it was reported that oil consumption would be 115 Mb/d by 2016.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 01 Jan 2017, 21:23:34

sparky wrote:.
As the world production relentlessly rise and reach 97millions barrels a day ,
is the "magic" number of 100 Mb/d around the corner ?


Can't be. The old Oil Drum amateurs declared peak oil at about 85 million a day back in 2008. The only people who ever pretended that oil production might reach 100 million a day were the economists and analysts of the IEA and EIA.

And even if it happens, people will deny it happened, sort of like those who still foolishly think that their 2005 peak oil of 75 million a day is somehow larger than the current number you just mentioned.

So no, it can't happen, because Hubbert claimed peak oil would occur in 1995 or so, at 34 million barrels a day, and he could never have been wrong by 300%.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby copious.abundance » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 00:05:08

Yup. Another trip down Memory Lane.

World Oil Production Peaked in 2008
Image
Stuff for doomers to contemplate:
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1190117.html#p1190117
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1193930.html#p1193930
http://peakoil.com/forums/post1206767.html#p1206767
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby Cog » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 00:24:18

There is no need for $70/bbl oil when there is plenty of $50/bbl oil for sale. You ETP'ers just don't get supply/demand.
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 00:36:04

Cog - Save your breath, buddy. They done drunk too much Kool-Aid already. LOL.
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby Cog » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 06:03:47

Tomorrow's $50 oil will come from the same place as yesterday's $50 oil. Did you mean literally tomorrow or some time in the distant future?


Im a little confused here. Are you saying the world can not afford $80 oil? Because I seem to remember putting gasoline in my truck at that price and even higher for extended periods of time.
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Mon 02 Jan 2017, 12:01:06

I don't think we will get to 100 but I could be wrong. The one thing I am certain of is the volume of oil produced in any one day since the dawn of the oil industry has been depended on how many buyers are in the market and how much they are willing to pay.

If Uncle Sam went even crazier and promised to subsidize American oil producers by 100 percent so we could be energy independent ASAP then you would see all sorts of drilling and fracking and oild sand development and heck probable kerogen rich shales being cooked to get the oil out. We could make America energy independent, but the costs would be huge! Why develop $250/bbl oil in America when we can still import cheap Saudi oil for $55/bbl or even $100/bbl?

So yes, the world could produce 100 MM/bbl/d of oil, but at what price to the end user?
II Chronicles 7:14 if my people, who are called by my name, will humble themselves and pray and seek my face and turn from their wicked ways, then I will hear from heaven, and I will forgive their sin and will heal their land.
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby Serial_Worrier » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 19:33:36

I predict 120mbd by 2020 with no end in sight. Endless amounts of that light sweet crude bubbling up from Mother Nature to fuel a billion vehicles!
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 20:13:27

Wow! Now we have another relatively unimportant number to go along with the date of global PO...how much oil the world is producing on that date. LOL.
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 20:38:01

Subjectivist wrote:So yes, the world could produce 100 MM/bbl/d of oil, but at what price to the end user?


Considering that we are already almost there, the answer looks to be something in the vicinity of $50-$60/bbl.

Works for me, when peak oil hit in 2008 (TOD's claimed peak oil) that was the summer the price hit $147! So I think we are all quite happy that 9 years after that claimed peak oil we are at about 1/3 the price of peak oil.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 13 Jan 2017, 21:03:35

AdamB wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:So yes, the world could produce 100 MM/bbl/d of oil, but at what price to the end user?


Considering that we are already almost there, the answer looks to be something in the vicinity of $50-$60/bbl.

Works for me, when peak oil hit in 2008 (TOD's claimed peak oil) that was the summer the price hit $147! So I think we are all quite happy that 9 years after that claimed peak oil we are at about 1/3 the price of peak oil.

I don't get it. How in the WORLD can we be credibly predicting peak oil NOW, when the biggest problem is that too much oil production has dropped prices so low it is crushing longer term investment? (I'm not saying you're claiming peak oil -- I don't see how ANYONE can credibly claim it just now). It's not that this is anything remotely like us running out -- it's that the economics (low oil prices) is going to cause development of resources to come in fits and starts, which will make prices yo-yo, and be tough economic sledding.

Now, maybe the worry is what the price could get to at the peaks of the yo-yoing, but that's economic inconvenience, not running out of resources.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby ralfy » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 02:38:40

The problem is not oil price but oil production cost. That's where one sees the effects of peak oil.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... to-survive
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 03:12:56

"I don't see how ANYONE can credibly claim it just now" Of course no one can claim global PO now. OTOH no one can ever reasonably claim GPO is happening WHEN IT'S HAPPENING. Look how close we came to a new US PO many decades after everyone KNEW we had reached PO.

Back to the point I've made many times before: many years down the road when we feel comfortable we had reached GPO many decades early it might be 100 mm bopd. Or 120 mm bopd. Or 140 mm bopd. And at that time oil was selling for $50/bbl. Or $120/bbl. Or $27/bbl. And the rig count might be 4,500 at that point in time. Or 350. The world might be relative calm and skimming by OK. Or maybe a crushing global depression may be unfolding.

So giving we don't really have any f*cking way to predict what life will be like when we reach GPO doesn't it really matter when it happens or what that max production might be?
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby MD » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 05:31:35

it doesn't matter. pushing limits forward is what we do, until we can't. It will be evident in hindsight, until then? rock on.
Stop filling dumpsters, as much as you possibly can, and everything will get better.

Just think it through.
It's not hard to do.
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 14 Jan 2017, 23:15:41

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Subjectivist wrote:So yes, the world could produce 100 MM/bbl/d of oil, but at what price to the end user?


Considering that we are already almost there, the answer looks to be something in the vicinity of $50-$60/bbl.

Works for me, when peak oil hit in 2008 (TOD's claimed peak oil) that was the summer the price hit $147! So I think we are all quite happy that 9 years after that claimed peak oil we are at about 1/3 the price of peak oil.

I don't get it. How in the WORLD can we be credibly predicting peak oil NOW, when the biggest problem is that too much oil production has dropped prices so low it is crushing longer term investment?


Funny how peak oil turned out (past tense), or the amount of can kicking now necessary for anyone discussing the topic to be taken seriously, isn't it?

Outcast_searcher wrote:Now, maybe the worry is what the price could get to at the peaks of the yo-yoing, but that's economic inconvenience, not running out of resources.


I happen to be the inventor of, and chief advocate of, the new sine wave of oil production prototyped by the US over the past decade or so. Yo-yoing indeed, methinks the bell shaped curve needs MAJOR revision, in lieu of what Rockman and his fellow industry folks have demonstrated for the world to see.

Now the only question is, how many more peaks, after the 2 the US has had so far? And what might the frequency be?

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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby sparky » Sun 15 Jan 2017, 07:44:51

.
the peaks rise are dependent on a new economic reality bringing new extraction in play .
what come after fracking and shale ?
....moonshine ?
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Re: 100 mb/d ?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sun 15 Jan 2017, 08:04:36

Adam - And actually go back far enough and there should be a third peak from the PA boom in the late 1800's. I've seen a number of estimates but not sure of the credibility with the lack of records.
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