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Countdown To Impeachment

A forum for discussion of regional topics including oil depletion but also government, society, and the future.

how long before Trump is impeached?

Before swearing in
0
No votes
Before 100 days into term
0
No votes
Before 1 year
8
21%
Before 2018 mid-terms
5
13%
Before 2020 election
5
13%
hell freezes over
21
54%
 
Total votes : 39

Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sat 28 Sep 2019, 23:44:32

When the Ds get done with their sham investigation and vote to impeach Trump in the House, what will McConnell and the Ds do in the Senate?

I think there's a good chance McConnell will give the Trump impeachment referral from the House the "Merritt Garland" treatment.

McConnell can decide to just "table" the referral and not put Trump on trial in the short amount of time left until the next election.

That way the decision whether or not to keep Trump as president can be decided by the voters......as it should be.

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Merrick Garland didn't get an up or down vote on his Supreme Court nomination in the Senate.....and Trump may also not get an up or down vote on his impeachment if McConnell decides to ignore the extremely weak impeachment referral coming from the Ds in the house and leave Trump's fate to the voters in 2020.

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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby Cog » Sun 29 Sep 2019, 00:32:59

mmasters wrote:"Federal records show that the intelligence community secretly revised the formal whistleblower complaint form in August 2019 to eliminate the requirement of direct, first-hand knowledge of wrongdoing."

https://thefederalist.com/2019/09/27/in ... knowledge/


With one singular purpose. To leak this phone call between Trump and the Ukrainian president.

Very similar to Obama' last minute change before he left office, into how classified information was shared among the 18 agencies. To leak information about the new administration.

The deep state is very real and want no part of Trump's effort to end their gravy train.
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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 29 Sep 2019, 06:16:39

At this point I don’t think it matters much who is right or wrong, as if that is even discoverable. I think it’s a game between Pelozi and McConnell. Does McConnell want Trump out of the running for 2020?

There are a lot of sore losers in the Republican Party. Is McConnell tired of Trump being the “great disruptor”? Is the core of elites quietly exerting influence to remove Trump to calm the system?

If so then this is a Ukraine deal could be a cover story, move it quickly through the House, squeak it through the Senate, then the R’s have enough time to field one of the Good Old Buys for 2020. But Pelozi can’t drag her feet in this or Mcconnell won’t have time to work his magic and instill his anointed. Which means he will have to kill the impeachment in the Senate.

Not saying this is the way it is, but maybe it is. It’s surely a very cynical outlook.
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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby Ibon » Sun 29 Sep 2019, 06:48:44

Newfie wrote:
Not saying this is the way it is, but maybe it is. It’s surely a very cynical outlook.


Back in my business days when I was helping my representatives in Latin America try to win a tender we did all the back room maneuvers possible to defeat the other competitors. By the time the tender was officially opened for public bidding and before the firsts bids were made it was already known who had won.

Do we doubt the same thing happens in politics?
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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby Cog » Sun 29 Sep 2019, 11:22:40

Bill Clinton s popularity went up after his impeachment so be careful Dems what you are after here.

It's almost as if the Dems have completely forgotten that Mueller concluded in Volume One, that no American colluded or conspired with Russia to affect the 2016 election. For two years I was promised a smoking gun. I got not even a misfire.
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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 29 Sep 2019, 11:23:47

Cog wrote:
The deep state is very real and want no part of Trump's effort to end their gravy train.


If so, then the deep state seem to be working hand-in-glove with the Ds. Certainly this latest phony scandal seems to have been jointly cooked up by the intelligence services and the Ds, just like the phony Russiagate scandal was cooked up by the Ds and the intelligence services.

The change to the rules one month ago to allow whistleblowers to blow their whistles based only on hearsay is what allowed the CIA whistleblower to report the Trump phone call to Ukraine. But Adam Shifty knew all about Trumps's phone two weeks ago, before the whistleblower went public, so there seems to have been secret communications between Shifty and the CIA whistleblower before the whistleblower went public. In fact, the whistleblower complaint may even have been written by Adam Shifty and his staff, because it is much closer to a legal document then a typical internal CIA memo.

whistleblower-complaint-probably-written-by-adam-schiffs-staff

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Schiff's off on another delusional crusade.....this time its the Ukrainians!

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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby Newfie » Sun 29 Sep 2019, 12:26:17

Plant et al,

At this point I don’t think the “facts” much matter anymore. Not that that they should not matter, but that they don’t. This is a narrative, a story, a TV episode. The folks that desire to believe it requires an impeachment will believe that. And the folks that believe it is a set up will believe that.

It looks like the story will be pushed forward to see how many folks it pulls along. But also to test the idea that the Republican Senate will come aboard, or not. My SUSPICION is that Peolzi is trying to demonstrate impeachment has enough support to cover Republican Senators turning on Trump.

If the public doesn’t get excited and behind the idea then it’s DOA.

I. E been watching Reuter’s and USA Today the last couple of days. They seem to be the least politically motivated big media sources, reporting not spinning. If they are a judges the public just isn’t very interested yet. They have some coverage, but it’s far from predominate as it is on CNN/FOX.
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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 29 Sep 2019, 12:39:30

I. E been watching Reuter’s and USA Today the last couple of days. They seem to be the least politically motivated big media sources, reporting not spinning. If they are a judges the public just isn’t very interested yet. They have some coverage, but it’s far from predominate as it is on CNN/FOX.


it's likely that the public at large is getting tired of the same movie being re-run all the time. You can only falsely call "wolf" so many times before you lose your audience completely.
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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby Pops » Sun 29 Sep 2019, 13:19:10

We once had a more closely related set of facts from which to develop opinions. You and your pal could argue about how you felt about the story Cronkite ran last night because he saw basically the same story by Roger Mudd or read from an AP reporter in the local paper.

The wire services then and now are forced to be as impartial as possible because they sell stories to everyone, big networks are similar, they target a broad audience, they are broad-casters. Note the chart I posted has them at the top of the fact reporting scale and the center of the right/left axis.

Back in the day you might not have agreed with your pal but at least you had a common frame. Now you simply have nothing to talk about because the "factual" worlds we inhabit are drifting apart. Our frame splinters as the media landscape splinters. It is no accident, "alternative facts" preclude argument. You don't have to defend trumps or biden's actions if you just assert a different set of facts.

We're alienated from each other because we think the the other is deluded at best and just lying at worst. How can I talk to someone who thinks they have evidence hrc runs a baby-sex trafficking ring from a pizza parlor basement?

I can't, that is the purpose: divide and conquer
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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 29 Sep 2019, 14:49:03

We once had a more closely related set of facts from which to develop opinions.


True to some extent but the greater problem is the mass of folks who want their opinions provided for them (ie too lazy to think for themselves). It's part of the tribal thing...the press that supports their tribe gives them the bent on the news they want. They only hang out with people from their own tribe so it goes without saying that their new "opinion" (which of course they never came up with) is confirmed time and again. And the big benefit is they don't have to work for it.

Recently I've seen good examples of this from reporters who have a very cynical approach both in Canada and the US. They approached University students and asked them a number of questions regarding current politics and more than 90% of the answers demonstrated the person was ill-informed and had been subjected to group think without understanding any of the reasons. Such was the case with the recent black/brown face scandal perpetrated by Trudeau. Students interviewed basically parroted excuses they had been told by the Liberal Party....oh, he was young or oh, he was just playing dress up, but he apologized etc., none understood the underlying problem regarding a visibly racist Prime Minister who ran on a platform of inclusivity. The same with Trump in the US. Students when asked if Trump should be impeached invariably responded yes. When questioned why not a one could come up with a solid reason that would support impeachment, merely making statements like "he's a racist, he hates Mexican people, he's a bad person etc". Now whether their opinions are fed to them by the press or simply from profs who get their opinions from the press remains questionable I suppose but the bottom line is they clearly haven't bothered to think for themselves.
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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 29 Sep 2019, 16:06:01

Newfie wrote:
At this point I don’t think the “facts” much matter anymore..... The folks that desire to believe it requires an impeachment will believe that. And the folks that believe it is a set up will believe that.

It looks like the story will be pushed forward to see how many folks it pulls along. But also to test the idea that the Republican Senate will come aboard, or not. My SUSPICION is that Peolzi is trying to demonstrate impeachment has enough support to cover Republican Senators turning on Trump.

If the public doesn’t get excited and behind the idea then it’s DOA.


You are right on all that, but for me personally, the "facts" do still matter.

I can totally see the point of view of people who say Trump doesn't have the temperament to be president and so should be removed, even if it requires an endless flood of baseless lies and phony accusations.

But I also think it is very damaging to our Republic to allow the D party to get away with removing a duly elected president solely through an endless flood of baseless lies and phony accusations.

Just today Susan Rice joined the chorus of Ds demanding that Trump turn over to Congress the secret server where his communications with foreign leaders are stored. But then someone asked Susan Rice if Obama had stored his communications with foreign leaders in a secret, secure server and Susan Rice was forced to admit that Obama had done it too.

Thats how this whole thing is.....Trump is supposed to be so evil for asking the Ukrainians to investigate corruption, but somehow its OK for Joe Biden to demand the Ukrainians stop investigating corruption to cover up the millions being paid to his son. Trump asking the Ukrainians to do him a favor during a phone call is supposed to be bad, but when Obama was caught on an open mike asking Russian Premier Medvedev to do him a favor to help him get re-elected that was perfectly OK.

IMHO the Ds are going beyond normal partisanship now. There are remedies short of impeachment, but the angry Ds insist that only impeachment will do. To me, the angry Ds howling for Trump's impeachment based on this minor issue are displaying a kind of mob mentality here........

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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 09:02:28

JFK - quite likely riggged the 1960 election in Chicago and for sure employed many “dirty tricks” in his campaign. Then there is the Bay Of Pigs fiasco. Not to mention close ties with the mob, high levels of medication and numerous affairs.

LBJ - lies to the American Public about Vietnam, and cocked up at least part of the Gulf of Tonkin. He would wag his dick in public, conducted meetings while defecating (with ladies present), and espoused very racist attitudes. Not to mention his many sexual exploits, although he mentioned them quite frequently. Lady Bird was resigned to this behavior.

Nixon - The whole Watergate and tape affair aside committed treason when he employed Lady Chenualt to convince the South Vietnamese to walk out of the peace negotiations during the 1968 election. Also secret and illegal operations in Cambodian and Thailand.

Regan - Iran Contra, Grenada invasion.

Bill Clinton - serial womanizer, Lewinsky.

GEORGE II - Invaded Iraq, a sovereign country, on the baloney premise of WMD.

Obama - attacked a sovereign country (Libia) and ordered the execution US citizens by drone attack.

Every one of the above Presidents committed impeachable offenses. I probably missed a whole bunch, not trying to be inclusive.

In that time frame 3 Presidents don’t have quite such an obvious record of impeachable offenses:
Ford, Carter, GEORGE I - and all of them were voted out of office.
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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 09:16:22

Newfie wrote:JFK - quite likely riggged the 1960 election in Chicago and for sure employed many “dirty tricks” in his campaign. Then there is the Bay Of Pigs fiasco. Not to mention close ties with the mob, high levels of medication and numerous affairs.

LBJ - lies to the American Public about Vietnam, and cocked up at least part of the Gulf of Tonkin. He would wag his dick in public, conducted meetings while defecating (with ladies present), and espoused very racist attitudes. Not to mention his many sexual exploits, although he mentioned them quite frequently. Lady Bird was resigned to this behavior.

Nixon - The whole Watergate and tape affair aside committed treason when he employed Lady Chenualt to convince the South Vietnamese to walk out of the peace negotiations during the 1968 election. Also secret and illegal operations in Cambodian and Thailand.

Regan - Iran Contra, Grenada invasion.

Bill Clinton - serial womanizer, Lewinsky.

GEORGE II - Invaded Iraq, a sovereign country, on the baloney premise of WMD.

Obama - attacked a sovereign country (Libia) and ordered the execution US citizens by drone attack.

Every one of the above Presidents committed impeachable offenses. I probably missed a whole bunch, not trying to be inclusive.

In that time frame 3 Presidents don’t have quite such an obvious record of impeachable offenses:
Ford, Carter, GEORGE I - and all of them were voted out of office.


Great post Newfie, keeping things in perspective. The issue of Trump is not the severity of the Ukraine fiasco. Probably this is even minor compared to some of the examples you gave.

I see this current impeachment as likely to fail but the origins of it have to do with Trumps failure of building any kind of coalition. His administration is imploding, many republicans hate but fear him, the democrats of course can't stand him, and perhaps most importantly Trump has chosen to make war with law enforcement, CIA, FBI , etc. and exclude them while sending his personal lawyer around the world on security matters. This alienates the official security apparatus within the US and Trump has succeeded in radicalizing his base into believing that this is part of the deep state etc.

Trump is isolating himself more and more as time passes, this has less to do with democrats hating him and more to do with his own messianic narcissism.

Go ahead and consider another scenario where Trump had built a coalition, reached across the isle on a few social issues, kept his administration intact etc., not tried to discredit thee CIA and FBI, if that had been the case up until now, this Ukraine phone call would not be resulting in an impeachment inquiry. It would fall under the category of normal slime politics as the examples you pointed out Newfie.
Last edited by Ibon on Mon 30 Sep 2019, 09:36:30, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 09:23:02

Ibon,

But is that not what he said he was going to do - drain the swamp - take on the powerful DC bureaus?

Look, I’m not going to defend or attack Trump. Nor do I think this impeachment is really about the Ukraine. My money is on this being much more akin to a religious war.
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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 09:30:20

For those who love the minutia of this debacle here is an interesting article from the WaPo seeking to brush aside Bidens involvement. The article is VERY clear to make pronouncements that “no wrong doing has been found.” Yet they also note that Hunter’s actions created the questions of impropriety, enough so that Kerry’s stepson broke professional relations.

Given the “facts” presented in the WaPo I don’t think it unreasonable that someone would want to independently investigate the relationships.

That the WaPo proclaims there is no evidence of Biden wrong doing is nice. But the WaPo is not an investigative part of the government. It is INFLUENTIAL but hardly non-partisan.

Anyway, if that’s the “best” liberal left spin on the Bidens then one does wonder what the full truth is.
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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby Ibon » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 09:42:20

Newfie wrote:Ibon,

But is that not what he said he was going to do - drain the swamp - take on the powerful DC bureaus?

Look, I’m not going to defend or attack Trump. Nor do I think this impeachment is really about the Ukraine. My money is on this being much more akin to a religious war.


We mentioned impeachment requires that republican senators sense the buy in from their constituents. The only way I see this as possible is if the constituents become weary of Trumps one trick pony strategy of being at war with the entire political establishment. Demagogues and populists usually do have a short shelf life because folks get tired of the unless milking of grievances and the endless soap opera.

Most Trump supporters focus only on the democrats waging the war. If more start to understand Trump's role in this war you may find more who would be willing to impeach....

8 years of Trump wont last, even if he is re elected the American public will be desperate for someone who can build coalitions. Are they desperate enough now already or is polarization still juicy and fun?
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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 10:17:09

Ibon,

Changing the subject to the 2020 election... I personally think Trump has the opportunity to do some good by being the “great disruptor” in this term. Then we should have someone different in the next term who can continue his house cleaning in a more reasonable way. Kind of like Greta, good to have her speak up and expose the naked corruption, but then the adults need to take over an complete the job.

That would require the Democrats to put up a reasonable candidate to fit that role. NBL.

(Not Bloody Likely)
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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 11:31:07

Is Trump's behavior in coercing a foreign government to help him against his rivals to be the new norm? That is the only question that is relevant. Anything else and one is just engaging in an infantile exercise of slinging food around the lunch room.

Sure, we would LOVE entanglements of the Biden's to be brought under control, but that certainly was not the way to do it and, besides, we all know that Trump has already engaged in many exercises that Biden is accused of.

However, the exercise by Trump and his Trumpettes of flinging back accusations is not working this time even though this has been one of his modus operandis to attack in kind when attacked, when he would have been better off just keeping quiet and letting the facts speak for themselves. It is so amusing that Trump has never been called to give testimony and, certainly, would probably not be advised to allow that. All Presidents have lied, but not all have been excused from telling the truth because they are a pathological liar.

I think he will be impeached. I really can't fathom the Senate doing anything but ignoring the impeachment request, though. I think that is how it will play out. The Republicans have no plan B anymore.
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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 11:48:25

jedrider wrote:Is Trump's behavior in coercing a foreign government to help him against his rivals to be the new norm?


Are fantasies about "coercion" to be the new norm?

Lets be realistic here......the US gives huge amounts of foreign aid to a lot of foreign countries, and the US has an interest in seeing that aid is used properly rather then being siphoned off by corruption in the country the aid is going to to.

Ukraine is a notoriously corrupt country. Its not unreasonable for the US to be concerned about past corruption in Ukraine, especially at the moment when another aliquot of foreign aid is in the pipeline.

Similarly, its not unheard of for political candidates to be investigated even while running for office. Just look at Hillary, who was under FBI investigation leading up to the 2016 election. Running for office is not a "get-out-of-jail-free" card for corrupt politicians. Its actually quite the opposite......anyone running for office, even if they are named Joe Biden, should expect their past to be under intense scrutiny.

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Re: Countdown To Impeachment

Unread postby jedrider » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 12:02:11

Plantagenet wrote:
jedrider wrote:Is Trump's behavior in coercing a foreign government to help him against his rivals to be the new norm?


Are fantasies about "coercion" to be the new norm?

Lets be realistic here......the US gives huge amounts of foreign aid to a lot of foreign countries, and the US has an interest in seeing that aid is used properly rather then being siphoned off by corruption in the country the aid is going to to.

Ukraine is a notoriously corrupt country. Its not unreasonable for the US to be concerned about past corruption in Ukraine, especially at the moment when another aliquot of foreign aid is in the pipeline.

Similarly, its not unheard of for political candidates to be investigated even while running for office. Just look at Hillary, who was under FBI investigation leading up to the 2016 election. Running for office is not a "get-out-of-jail-free" card for corrupt politicians. Its actually quite the opposite......anyone running for office, even if they are named Joe Biden, should expect their past to be under intense scrutiny.

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Yes, but that was NOT the way to do it.
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