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Recent Peak Oil overview?

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby jupiters_release » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 11:28:23

I'm sure I'm not the only one who got burned out a decade ago waiting for 'the end' with oil at $147 barrel, and gave up on following (and preaching) the energy data.

Since I assume peak oil is really happening still currently is there an updated version of the "Crash Course" or any other overview of global production data/decline rates I can brief myself with and maybe share with others?
Do not seek the truth, only cease to cherish opinions.
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby SumYunGai » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 12:09:32

jupiters_release wrote:I'm sure I'm not the only one who got burned out a decade ago waiting for 'the end' with oil at $147 barrel, and gave up on following (and preaching) the energy data.

Since I assume peak oil is really happening still currently is there an updated version of the "Crash Course" or any other overview of global production data/decline rates I can brief myself with and maybe share with others?

Yes. There is now a definitive model of the current (and future) oil depletion situation based on energy physics. It is called the Etp model. The model has been very accurately forecasting the decline in oil prices for the last 2+ years:

http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

The Etp model is being discussed all over this forum. Here is the Etp model Q&A thread:

the-etp-model-q-a-t70563-460.html

The output of the Etp model is quite shocking to most people. You will not be waiting for 'the end' much longer.
Last edited by SumYunGai on Thu 17 Nov 2016, 12:27:16, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby SumYunGai » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 12:42:28

pstarr wrote:Be careful Sum, some would like to see ETP maintained as a constrained model. You know, tied up in controversy. :x

I am well aware of that, pstarr. But there is no valid justification for their objections. At least I haven't seen any yet.

So why should I be careful? This is an open discussion, right? People who disagree with the Etp model are certainly entitled to their opinions, just as I am supposed to be. But, IMHO, Etp deniers should not be able to just declare themselves right and shut down all Etp discussion. Not only is that unjustified and unfair, but it is also suspicious behavior. I think this type of reactionary resistance just lends more support to the validity of the Etp model.

My answer is the best answer to jupiters_release's question.
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby onlooker » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 13:08:23

Yes Jupiter. We have an Oil Industry becoming ever more in debt in this low price environment in the US, we have the apex producer Saudi Arabia also racking up debt and giving signs of serious insolvency and a weakening oil industry. We have a global economy that while not collapsing is showing signs of serious stagnation even under these relatively low oil prices. We have oil production beginning to strain in supplying the world with net oil as production takes up more of the total oil used. We have a proxy 3rd world war going on in the middle east as the potent countries vie for supremacy and influence in that oil and natural gas rich region. And we have a financial industry ruled by chicanery and false delusions of wealth even as real wealth ie. energy and other resources is declining even as population continues to increase. So I think that gives you the general jist of where we are. But deniers ask whence has peak oil gone
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby jupiters_release » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 14:21:10

Pstarr, I've been well aware of the suffering in the world my whole life before learning of peak oil.

Etp (the math) is saying five years max before TEOTWAWKI arrives? Does anyone think first world countries can or attempt to extend 'BAU' in the first world by destroying demand through unprecedented levels of war and genocide in second and third world countries? Not saying I want that to happen but inquiring what the abyss will look like as it approaches.
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 14:50:10

Short saw a chart of nominal oil price. Voila ETP

My personal overview
PO is not the foremost threat.
We are in a very unstable political/economic situation
call it WTS: Wrench Thrown—Standby
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby SumYunGai » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 15:37:44

Pops wrote:PO is not the foremost threat.
We are in a very unstable political/economic situation

Peak oil is the reason for the season, Pops.

jupiters_release wrote:Does anyone think first world countries can or attempt to extend 'BAU' in the first world by destroying demand through unprecedented levels of war and genocide in second and third world countries?

Nothing will work to extend BAU. BAU has been over for years. There is no way out for modern industrial civilization. First world countries are the ones most at risk. The bigger they are, the harder they fall. Collapse will be very rapid.
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby Pops » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 15:49:32

SumYunGai wrote:Peak oil is the reason for the season, Pops.


So says everyone
at PO.com
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby jupiters_release » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 16:19:00

SumYunGai wrote:
Pops wrote:PO is not the foremost threat.
We are in a very unstable political/economic situation

Peak oil is the reason for the season, Pops.

jupiters_release wrote:Does anyone think first world countries can or attempt to extend 'BAU' in the first world by destroying demand through unprecedented levels of war and genocide in second and third world countries?

Nothing will work to extend BAU. BAU has been over for years. There is no way out for modern industrial civilization. First world countries are the ones most at risk. The bigger they are, the harder they fall. Collapse will be very rapid.


BAU to me is lights on, food in the stores, and oil in the gas stations which isn't over yet. Reading the latest Etp thread Shortonoil mentioned something about 13 years when the graph says kaput in 5ish years..
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 16:23:38

Jupiter - "Does anyone think first world countries can or attempt to extend 'BAU' in the first world by destroying demand through unprecedented levels of war and genocide in second and third world countries?". A couple of questions. Not to be too picky but do you really think the current state of affairs is worse then during WWII? Perhaps your that much younger then the Rockman. LOL. More important the 2nd and 3rd world economies don't consume that much energy compared to the world's industrialized economies. The US (#1) and China (#2) combined consume almost 6X as much energy as India (#3). Just the top ten 1st world countries account for 80% of global energy consumption: https://yearbook.enerdata.net

That's just 10 countries out of the world's 195 countries. Forget the 2nd and 3rd world: the US and China consume more the 10X as much energy as the 12 smallest industrialized 1st world countries COMBINED. Sounds cruel but it's true: you can't steal much from a poor man.

The industrialized world, especially the glutinous US, has always usurped energy of the 2nd and 3rd world citizens. And didn't have to resort to "war and genocide" to do so: it was done, and always will be done, by financial clout. The relative small US population consumes a hugely disproportionate amount of global energy the old fashion way: we bought it.

The severe completion for energy in the future will be between the 1st world nations as the struggle to maintain BAU as much as possible. And how will that struggle shape up for the two biggest energy consumers that have two of the largest (including nuclear) armed militaries on the planet? Long ago I came up with one more silly acronym to describe one possible dynamic: MADOR. Similar to the MAD dynamic of the Cold War...Mutually Assured Destruction. Obviously no point in two nuclear powers to go to war: no winner. So now we have MADOR...Mutually Assured Distribution Of Resources. IOW if the two strongest "financial armies" go to war: no winner. Thus possibly similar to the surrogate conflicts fought between the two nuclear supper powers we'll have surrogate financial wars fought over resources. One can look at current events and perhaps see some hints of it already beginning. And as in military conflicts there will be collateral damage: the other smaller industrialized 1st world economies. After all they will be the primary competition for China and the US.

Energy resources are not so limited today so the serious battles haven't started yet. But those recent times when oil, NG and coal saw much higher costs might be considered a "shot across the bow" to the rest of the energy consumers that had to compete with the US and China...and India.
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby efarmer » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 19:46:11

Great post Rockman, as always. I did get a laugh ouf of a typo "nuclear supper powers" because I immediately thought that they would have to be Banquet and Swanson.
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby ralfy » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 20:18:31

It's probably better to look at oil production costs instead of just prices.
http://sites.google.com/site/peakoilreports/
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Thu 17 Nov 2016, 21:18:52

Thanks farmer. MADOR isn't exactly a nice bedtime story, eh? How bad might it get for our "allies"? We shale see.
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby Subjectivist » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 13:41:14

jupiters_release wrote:BAU to me is lights on, food in the stores, and oil in the gas stations which isn't over yet. Reading the latest Etp thread Shortonoil mentioned something about 13 years when the graph says kaput in 5ish years..


Thats the thing so many seem to refuse to accept. To the average person on the planet food on the table, heat when its cold and so on are BAU and these things are not being broadly disrupted. Sure if you live in a war zone things are bad, but that has always been true back to the days of clubs and spears.
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 15:26:28

Sub - All true with respects to, let's call it the "basics", what many would consider BAU. But consider how many US citizens don't consider those "basics" anything close to what they deserve...or demand. I remember doing a lot of walking as a child. Why...because we didn't own a car? Hell, there was only one family in the entire neighborhood that owned one. LOL. And sometimes because I didn't have the 4¢ bus fare. But to me and my neighbors that was BAU. I just helped my 16 yo daughter buy a PU truck. I didn't buy my first car until I was 25 yo after working for Mobil Oil for a year.

Obviously my BAU was drasticly different then her's is now. LOL. The US citizens will be facing some of the most radical changes in BAU of any population on the planet. With the poissible exception of the folks in the KSA.
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 16:28:31

jupiters_release wrote:Since I assume peak oil is really happening still currently is there an updated version of the "Crash Course" or any other overview of global production data/decline rates I can brief myself with and maybe share with others?


The "Crash Course" became "Peak Prosperity" when Chris realized that it is difficult to sell peak oil after industry proved that the economists know more about resources than they were given credit for, and then industry hammered the point home with a 10# sledge by bringing on more supply, reversing declines, creating gluts, etc etc.
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 18 Nov 2016, 17:04:52

"...bringing on more supply, reversing declines..." Actually as of the summer of 2015, 20 months ago, US has less supply
and thus reversing increases in production rates.

Maybe some armchair "economists" should work on their basic arithmetic skills. LOL.
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Re: Recent Peak Oil overview?

Unread postby spike » Wed 23 Nov 2016, 15:04:31

Price goes down, supply declines--sounds like an economist, Rockman.
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