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When do you think the economy will crash?

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When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Revi » Mon 07 Nov 2016, 11:52:19

I have been thinking about it for a long time.

I think the next few years are going to be a change.

That change could happen in a lot of ways, but business as usual is now going to become impossible.

It costs the average person about $9000 a year to keep a car going nowadays. The average person can't afford to do that at minimum wage now. How's it going to work when things get really tough?

What do you think?
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 07 Nov 2016, 12:09:18

1). Why does the average fast crash doomer presume they can reliably predict that the economy will "crash" within a few years?

2). If they could, why don't they just use their economic predictive powers to become incredibly rich via the markets, and use all that wealth to become the most prepped and safe people imaginable?

3). If they could, why are they consistently wrong, about the short term timing? (I am also pessimistic about the long run, but fully admit I don't know if long run means 20 years or 200 or more. There are a LOT of moving parts, some new (AGW). The complexity is almost incomprehensible. Thus predicting THAT is almost certainly pure hubris, which is why the markets are quite efficient (and thus very hard to meaningfully beat over time).

4). I realize discussing this is a "hobby" for the fast crash doomer crowd. I suppose I just wonder why time spent more productively, like in prepping or earning (another form of prepping, IMO -- I was far better prepped for retirement at 48 than most people at 65/70, and it wasn't by accident, so that aspect is something I gave a tremendous amount of thought and effort over my career).
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 07 Nov 2016, 12:26:13

Most post WWII recessions were caused by a spike in oil prices.

The great recession in 2008-9 was caused by greatest spike in oil prices ever.

I don't see an economic crash coming as long as we are in an oil glut and oil prices are low. But if oil prices spike up then look out---the conditions for an economic collapse will be back.

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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 07 Nov 2016, 12:43:26

Plantagenet wrote:Most post WWII recessions were caused by a spike in oil prices.

Yup.

The great recession in 2008-9 was caused by greatest spike in oil prices ever.


Nope. Not according to the vast majority of economists, who actually know something about recessions. The persistent unwillingness of much of this site's members to be willing to perceive economic reality (i.e. the global housing crisis was clearly the primary cause of the 2008-9) crash, with high oil prices a far more minor input) would be surprising to me, if it weren't for the endless parade of wrong fast-crash predictions being made here, despite how many times they're proven dead wrong.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby careinke » Mon 07 Nov 2016, 12:55:28

pstarr wrote: But there is no correction for overpopulation and underearth.


Nice phrase, can I steal it from time to time?
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 07 Nov 2016, 13:04:08

pstarr wrote:You sound like ennui now and contradicted yourself outcaste. First a 'yup' that recessions are caused by high oil. But then a 'nope' the Greatest Recession of All Times was caused by a few bad mortgages in the Inland Empire. You need to get your own story straight.

Reading comprehension problems, or just deliberate distortion to favor your POV?

The first commend was that MOST post WWII recessions were caused by oil spikes. I agree with this.

However, correlation isn't causation, and like the majority of economists, I'm willing to at least try to look at overall economic data without clinging endlessly to a given favored POV, like that peak oil is what the entire world (and especially economy) revolves around.

Your ilk clearly isn't. So be it. Just don't expect most economists or people not thoroughly wedded to short term peak oilism to agree.

I didn't contradict myself, but I wouldn't expect you to see that.

Oh, and referring to the global real estate implosion as "a few bad mortgages" answers my question about the deliberate distortion, so never mind on that.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 07 Nov 2016, 13:24:38

Revi wrote:I have been thinking about it for a long time.

I think the next few years are going to be a change.


Folks said the same thing about peak oil nearly a decade back now. The economy crashed, we call it the Great Recession of 2008. The recovery since that recession has been pretty long, by post WWII standards, so we are due for another recession or something any time now, just based on business cycle dynamics.

Change is what the world is about, so sure, the next few years will involve it.

Revi wrote:That change could happen in a lot of ways, but business as usual is now going to become impossible.


They said the same thing about peak oil a decade back, and it didn't even stop this website, so no, just the general business cycle going into a recession won't make BAU impossible.

Revi wrote:It costs the average person about $9000 a year to keep a car going nowadays. The average person can't afford to do that at minimum wage now. How's it going to work when things get really tough?

What do you think?


People need to buy cheaper cars. $9000 to keep ONE going? Not in my lifetime, and I've got 4 of the things out in the driveway. Go buy a Ferrari and sure, it might cost that much to keep running for a year, but my most recent wagon is about $1000/year full coverage insurance, $350/year gasoline (based on peak oil caused gasoline prices from yesterday, about $1.85/gal), $3300 depreciation allowance from the IRS (which is a crock, but lets include it), and maybe $50/year for oil changes, $100/year prorated tire use and general maintenance, and this doesn't come anywhere near $9000, and most of it is depreciation which certainly has nothing to do with cash expense.

And tough? Tough how? You live in a economically depressed area of Maine and let me guess, you don't ride your electric off to Swan Island I'll bet. Which means even in the provinces you can afford a gas powered car because A) even in economically depressed areas you can afford cars and B) peak oil didn't bother you in your car ownership capability any more than it did anyone else.

My daughter is currently living without a car, and using Uber when she needs a ride. Is working out great, her transport costs for 3 months have been $25, and I know this because I funded all the Uber rides. The modern generation is what is going to cause peak demand, just as energy experts like Amy Jaffe are claiming.

So this is all a good thing, not a bad thing. BRING ON MORE PEAK OIL AND CURE THE WORLD'S APPETITE FOR OIL!!!
Peak oil in 2020: And here is why: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2b3ttqYDwF0
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby SumYunGai » Mon 07 Nov 2016, 13:37:48

pstarr wrote:More and more like ennui. Look where that got him?

It apparently got him fired?

ennui has been MIA for several weeks. Not that I am complaining or anything.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 07 Nov 2016, 14:28:17

SumYunGai wrote:
pstarr wrote:More and more like ennui. Look where that got him?

It apparently got him fired?

ennui has been MIA for several weeks. Not that I am complaining or anything.


Maybe him and that Whatever salesman dude are battling it out on another website? The salesman dude registered at more than a few to try and get the sales of that report pumped up.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby AdamB » Mon 07 Nov 2016, 14:31:04

pstarr wrote:
SumYunGai wrote:
pstarr wrote:More and more like ennui. Look where that got him?

It apparently got him fired?

ennui has been MIA for several weeks. Not that I am complaining or anything.

Much more civil. Less insult, more debate. A good thing. Now if we can do the same with that other troll lol


An environmentalist happily enjoying the destruction of forests and sea mammals is a wonderful contradiction, not a troll.

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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 07 Nov 2016, 15:29:59

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
Plantagenet wrote:Most post WWII recessions were caused by a spike in oil prices.

The great recession in 2008-9 was caused by greatest spike in oil prices ever.


Nope. Not according to the vast majority of economists, who actually know something about recessions.


You are right that most economists don't think the oil price spike in 2008 caused the recession in 2008. However you are wrong when claim there is some kind of agreement about what did cause the 2008 recession.

The fact of the matter is that there is no consensus about caused the 2008-9 recession. Some think it was high oil prices, others the US housing boom collapse, others Credit-Default bond collapses, other Lehman brothers, other the EU economic crisis and Greece and the PIGS, and others have still more theories.

Personally I go with the high oil price spike theory. It happened first, so its not unreasonable that it triggered the rest. You are welcome to endorse a different theory, but don't pretend there is unanimity amount economists in support of your pet idea, because there isn't. Pstarr is right---you are misrepresenting the facts about this and you should stop.

Cheers!
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby Newfie » Mon 07 Nov 2016, 16:09:03

OK guys.

Keep to topic, no taking unwarranted swipes at one another.

Smart ass comments tend to fall on fertile ground and sprout more of the same.

So if everyone keeps a civil and respectful tounge we can peacefully argue facts and points of view.
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Re: When do you think the economy will crash?

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Mon 07 Nov 2016, 16:13:25

Plantagenet wrote:The fact of the matter is that there is no consensus about caused the 2008-9 recession. Some think it was high oil prices, others the US housing boom collapse, others Credit-Default bond collapses, other Lehman brothers, other the EU economic crisis and Greece and the PIGS, and others have still more theories.

Cheers!


I would say that high oil prices and higher interest rates are what caused the housing bubble to burst and that in turn created wider problems in the financial sector. So much of what was happening at the time was unsustainable -- mortgages that many people could not realistically pay off, financial instruments based on poor quality mortgages and excessive deficit spending by the PIIGS -- that it was just a matter of time before it all came crashing down.
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