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Back to basics

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Back to basics

Unread postby Quinny » Fri 07 Oct 2016, 18:39:29

Hubberts original model where production lagged discoveries by X years is still a key issue.

Are there any discovery figures for last 20 years?

Would like to know?
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Re: Back to basics

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Fri 07 Oct 2016, 22:56:39

"Are there any discovery figures for last 20 years?" I assume you mean the discovery of new and SIGNIFICANT oil fields. Almost all the significant oil fields (and not TRENDS like the Eagle Ford) dscovered in the last 20 years have been in the Deep Water GOM. Obviously much longer lag time then onshore discoveries. Here's the list of all DW GOM discoveries:

https://www.data.boem.gov/homepg/data_c ... eptbl2.asp

But regardless of what the lag times mighmighht we see little change in the decline rate until the Bakken and EFS plays kicked in. I'm not really sure I understand what you're looking for.
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Re: Back to basics

Unread postby Quinny » Sat 08 Oct 2016, 05:00:20

Thankd RM Suppose I mean like this, but global?

Image
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Re: Back to basics

Unread postby Quinny » Sat 08 Oct 2016, 05:03:20

Sorry that Net imports, thinking more of a discovery curve showing production following timelag. I've seen one for US some time in past, was looking for a global one.
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Re: Back to basics

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 08 Oct 2016, 06:27:45

There is this list of discoveries that can be sorted by year.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_oil_fields
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Re: Back to basics

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sat 08 Oct 2016, 06:47:49

And this chart from another thread.
new-oil-reserves-vs-peak-oil-t40447-60.html
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Re: Back to basics

Unread postby Quinny » Sat 08 Oct 2016, 07:39:14

Thanks for the link. The other thread is just what I was looking for actually, don't know how I missed it.
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Re: Back to basics

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Sat 08 Oct 2016, 08:06:50

Yes...thanks vt. Very difficult to sort out cause and effect vs time. Consider the big Mexican field discovered 37 years ago and they are still talking about its big FUTURE. And Deep Water Brazil potential discovered 10 years ago might not reach peak production rate for another 10 years...or more.

Q - Will be interesting to see what you can sort out.
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Re: Back to basics

Unread postby sparky » Sat 08 Oct 2016, 15:45:11

.
did anyone said Kashagan ?
the discovered barrels can be assessed from public companies listing in most countries ,
for government oil companies it's a bit more tricky , they don't have the same legal requirements of veracity

some discoveries can be producing quite fast , in a matter of months .
onshore , located in a technologically rich location , with a favorable legal set up can produce in a matter of weeks .
tigh oil in the lower 48 could probably bounce quite fast .

other , such as the trans oceanic offshore with truly amazing drilling depth can only be wondered at .
not only the difficulties and costs are mind-blowing but the Brazilian government is not exactly boring
oilmen oversea care little about democracy , they do love predictability .
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