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Brexit

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Re: Brexit

Unread postby cephalotus » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 09:40:30

I hope for a no deal Brexit in one month. Hard EU border between Ireland and NI. Trade under WTO rules.

If you can not find a solution in 3 years you will not finde one in 4 years. A "soft Brext" seems to be impossible. Okay the pro Brexit politicans said this will be the easiest deal ever, but what harm does just one more lie?

Sort things out afterwards.

At least this will serve as an example.

This Brexit shit consumes way to much resources, there are much more important things like the Chinese influance over Eastern Europe and around the world, the Russian agression, the US trade war, climate change and so on.

EU has to move again. Let the British do what they want. Outside.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby dolanbaker » Tue 29 Oct 2019, 16:43:40

UK parliament is unable to achieve the Brexit that was negotiated by 31 October as promised by BoJo, so now there will be another General Election on 12 December.

If there is a conservative majority, then it is certain the UK will be moving from a full EU member to the transition stage of leaving before the end of January..
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby evilgenius » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 09:06:17

dolanbaker wrote:UK parliament is unable to achieve the Brexit that was negotiated by 31 October as promised by BoJo, so now there will be another General Election on 12 December.

If there is a conservative majority, then it is certain the UK will be moving from a full EU member to the transition stage of leaving before the end of January..
I'd like to know if Labour can realize that Corbyn is the wrong man for them before then? Their success would seem to rely upon that.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby dolanbaker » Thu 31 Oct 2019, 14:24:14

evilgenius wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:UK parliament is unable to achieve the Brexit that was negotiated by 31 October as promised by BoJo, so now there will be another General Election on 12 December.

If there is a conservative majority, then it is certain the UK will be moving from a full EU member to the transition stage of leaving before the end of January..
I'd like to know if Labour can realize that Corbyn is the wrong man for them before then? Their success would seem to rely upon that.


Corbyn still thinks he can regotiate Brexit, despite the EU tellomg BoJo that there will be no more negotiation, take it or leave it!

They still do not appear to have a clear strategy in the coming General Election.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby sparky » Fri 01 Nov 2019, 21:31:58

.
I would bet on an inconclusive election with Labor getting the worst of it and the fringe parties boosting their vote

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/br ... most-seats
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby evilgenius » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 09:14:36

I heard somebody say the other day that the Lib Dems could stand to benefit from the intransigence of Labour, but that the system is rigged against third parties rising suddenly in such a way. It seems you can get a lot of votes, but not many MP's. Really, without Labour having been hijacked by the extreme left, they would probably win any election right now. The criticism I had of them getting out of touch with real labour under Blair may have been valid, but to go so far to the left that they don't look like they can come back to the center seems abysmal for them. The election will likely go Conservative, and everybody will claim it is a mandate. Then, they'll have to put together a coalition. There isn't enough time for Boris to finish splitting the Conservative Party in two before the next poll, which is actually the most likely outcome from all of this.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby sparky » Sat 02 Nov 2019, 15:15:40

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It's less Labor having shifted than the electoral having done so
Labor always had some hard left militants while the electorate , especially the working class electorate , not listening anymore
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby Subjectivist » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 10:17:36

When is the next Brexit decision required to be made? I kept seeing headlines about how October 31 was the last chance and everything would be automatic after that. Obviously that wasn't true based on headlines this month, so what is the real end date?
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby dolanbaker » Wed 13 Nov 2019, 14:08:09

Subjectivist wrote:When is the next Brexit decision required to be made? I kept seeing headlines about how October 31 was the last chance and everything would be automatic after that. Obviously that wasn't true based on headlines this month, so what is the real end date?

31st January is the next official deadline, but if the conservatives have a clear victory on 12 December it could be sooner.

Then the transition period begins, another minefield of deals and agreements that have to be negotiated before the end of 2020.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby Subjectivist » Sat 23 Nov 2019, 18:43:56

The collapse of the anti-Brexit campaign

Unless Remainers can unite (and quickly), their cause is lost

James Forsyth
Ever since the Brexit referendum, the two strongest political forces in Britain have been Leave and Remain. Loyalty to political parties has faded, but feelings about the referendum result are almost stronger now than they were on June 23, 2016. For Remainers, these are tense times: for years, there has been the hope of a second referendum and stopping Brexit. But if the Tories win a majority next month, then the UK will leave the European Union on January 31 and our future relationship with the EU will be negotiated by the man who led the Leave campaign. By the time of the next general election, Brexit will be a settled fact.

If Remainers could organize themselves into a single political force, they would be almost unstoppable: 45 percent of the public identify as Remainers, easily enough to win a majority under first past the post. Leavers are about 41 percent, while only 26 percent of voters describe themselves as Tory and 23 percent as Labour. A great many Remainers intend to stick together: as Matthew Parris has said, a new group of voters have formed a ‘band of brothers’. The cause will endure for them, long after Brexit.

But the Remain side has been unable to unite behind any one party or leader. This is a particular problem for them now that Boris Johnson is the Tory leader. He has largely succeeded in the mission for which he was elected: to make the Tories into an indisputably Leave party and to crush support for Nigel Farage’s Brexit party. Every Tory candidate is now signed up to leaving the European Union with Boris Johnson’s deal, while the doubters have been rather brutally cast out. An extraordinary 71 percent of those who backed Brexit in 2016 are now voting Tory. Yet on the Remain side, no party can command the support of half of those who voted to stay in back in 2016. In our first-past-the-post electoral system, this asymmetry could prove fatal to Remain.

There have been attempts to form a Remain alliance: the Liberal Democrats, the Greens and Plaid Cymru have stood down for each other in about 60 seats. But this pact is only likely to make a difference in a handful of places: any Remain alliance that doesn’t include Labour is Hamlet without the Prince. Even when it comes to tactical voting, there is no single Remain voice, no one group from which to take advice. There are at least three different sites advising Remainers on how best to use their vote.

The prospect of Remain tactical voting is much more worrying to cabinet ministers than the Labour party is. If this election sees a split in the center left, then the Tories will end up with a comfortable majority. But if all Remainers vote tactically, then Boris Johnson will fall short of the numbers he needs.

The very fact that we are having an election demonstrates the limits of Remain unity. Boris Johnson was trapped in parliament, unable to pass his Brexit deal unamended. But he got the election he wanted when the Remain opposition’s united front against an election cracked. The Lib Dems and the Scottish Nationalists both decided to go for a December election, thinking the timing would work best for them. Labour ended up with little option but to embrace the idea. Time and time again, partisan advantage has proven fatal to the idea of a full-blown Remain alliance.

The other problem is Jeremy Corbyn. He is determined to maintain ambiguity in Labour’s Brexit position, so as not to alienate the Brexit voters currently being targeted by the Tories. This position is often embarrassing for him when he’s asked to spell it out. He says that he wants to negotiate his own deal, then have a referendum but — remarkably — he won’t say which side he’ll back in that vote. In his television debate with Boris Johnson, he risked ridicule by repeatedly refusing to answer this question. The Liberal Democrats are quite right to say that under Corbyn, Labour is not a Remain party.

Aside from anything else, Remainers might find Corbyn’s political agenda too much to stomach. If Jo Swinson said that she would be prepared to put Corbyn in No. 10, she would end her chances of picking up Tory/Lib Dem marginals such as Cheltenham and Winchester. There are many voters who would prefer to remain in the EU but don’t think that a Corbyn premiership is a price worth paying. Of the Remainers who voted Tory last time, three in four regard a Corbyn premiership as worse for the country than Brexit. About a quarter of those who voted Lib Dem take that view too.

This is not just about Corbyn’s economics either. His desire to expropriate 10 percent of all large companies, to nationalize industries at a price set by parliament and to take the intellectual property of pharmaceutical companies are all problematic. Yet vastly more difficult than that is his attitude to anti-Semitism. Corbyn is a man who has invited to tea on the House of Commons terrace Raed Salah, a man who has spread the ancient libel that Jews mix their bread with the blood of gentile children. One can see why Swinson doesn’t think Corbyn is fit to be prime minister.

Jeremy Corbyn is Remain’s fundamental problem in this campaign. The most effective strategy for denying the Tories a majority for their Brexit deal would be mass tactical voting. But that would involve a lot of non-Labour people having to vote for Corbyn’s candidates and risk him ending up in Downing Street. Hence the problem: there can be no effective Remain alliance without Labour, but there can be no Labour involvement without Corbyn.

With three weeks to go, there are a few reasons for Remain to be hopeful still. The last election showed that in Scotland, voters are capable of working out how to vote tactically without any great central direction. The unionists united behind the candidate most likely to beat the SNP, to the delight of the Tories. If English Remainers prove as adept at tactical voting, then the Tories can forget their hopes of a majority. The approach of election day may concentrate minds. If it looks as if the Tories are heading for a comfortable majority, Remainers will start to imagine what this means. That might prompt a last-minute flurry of tactical voting.

The reason the stakes are so high is because the Remain faction in the Commons have refused to compromise since the referendum. At pretty much any point in the last parliament, they could have secured a soft Brexit. They could have engineered a deal that would have kept the UK in the customs union and made it follow EU rules in a host of areas. But they chose not to do that, betting everything on securing a new referendum and stopping the whole thing. They may well succeed in that. After all, the Tory Brexit ultras rejected the compromise that was the May deal, and are now on the verge of getting the much cleaner Brexit that they wanted.

If the Remainers fail, though, they will have no safety net. The UK will leave the EU with the ability to diverge from EU rules. This will make it that much harder to make the argument for rejoining, as the more the UK diverges from the EU, the more economic dislocation will be involved in going back in. It will be a much harder sell, as it would involve giving things up and transferring powers back to Brussels (most likely with no rebate on the annual fee). A campaign to rejoin would have to explain how Britain would get around the obligation on new EU members to adopt the euro as their currency. Most of all, it would have to persuade a public that is fed up with interminable negotiations with Brussels to embark on yet more. This doesn’t mean that rejoining will never happen — leaving the EU was once regarded as a very unlikely proposition — but it is hard to see it happening soon.

The rearguard action fought by Remainers since their referendum loss has been remarkable. But if the new parliament backs Boris’s Brexit, their cause will be lost. And this is where they will end up, unless they can find a way to turn things around in the next three weeks.

This article was originally published in The Spectator’s UK magazine. Subscribe to the US edition here.


https://spectator.us/remains-last-stand ... -campaign/
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby evilgenius » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 11:59:59

I hope this doesn't amount to the first salvos, the philosophical ones, fired in the next world war. The entire concept of the EU was created with avoiding such a war in mind. It might be ironic, based upon how targeted they were in the last war, that the British are the ones putting the first slivers into the union, but maybe not after all. Many in Britain still hold a lot of animosity toward the French, choosing to see them in the historical context of the Napoleonic wars rather than dealing with the current iteration. Germany is viewed somewhat similarly, by those same people.

The best thing that could happen right now, for the future of Europe, would be for Corbyn to suddenly resign.
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby sparky » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 14:38:35

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The possibility of Corbyn to resign is somewhat less than Queen Elisabeth having a sex change
as for old mental mindscape to sway British voters , yes there is some of that ,no doubt
but keep in mind fifty years of British media dumping rubbish on the whole EU project too
" mountains of butter and lakes of milk "
the Bruxelles machinery described as some public servants heaven and consumer hell
it was all good clean fun until the main stream media had to backpedal over a matter of weeks
even now there doesn't seems to be any understanding that there was no "May plan" or "Boris plan"
or any chance of a Corbyn re-negotiation ,
what is on the table is the EU offer which is not amenable to change , beside some punctuation
it's a take it or leave it and no British politician want to tell this to the voter

The EU got 26 independent government to agree, a remarkable feat
it's not one government , which cannot get it's act together , which can change that
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Re: Brexit

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 25 Nov 2019, 20:22:12

evilgenius wrote:I hope this doesn't amount to the first salvos, the philosophical ones, fired in the next world war. The entire concept of the EU was created with avoiding such a war in mind. It might be ironic, based upon how targeted they were in the last war, that the British are the ones putting the first slivers into the union, but maybe not after all. Many in Britain still hold a lot of animosity toward the French, choosing to see them in the historical context of the Napoleonic wars rather than dealing with the current iteration. Germany is viewed somewhat similarly, by those same people.

The best thing that could happen right now, for the future of Europe, would be for Corbyn to suddenly resign.

I know this site tends to love epic doom stories and all, but somehow I can envision a LOT of scenarios between Brexit and World War III. I know the US is moving toward pot being legal, but maybe easing up on the "doomer fantasy bong" just a bit would make some sense.

I'm still hoping that as little progress is made toward a good solution, that in desperation, they'll allow another refererendum -- this time with many voters having a much better picture of many of the issues involved. Unpopular as that might be with certain Brits, it seems far better than "blowing up" Britian economically (metaphorically), and perhaps leading to a partial or full collapse of the EU as well, in time. (Even that being FAR SHORT of WW III, BTW).

Of course, another way this could end up going is to get some kind of agreement/compromise from the EU re the extent and rules for dealing with immigration. But of course, that would imply working together, so I don't hold out a lot of hope for that.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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