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Climate Refugees Pt. 2

Climate Refugees Pt. 2

Unread postby Sixstrings » Wed 04 May 2016, 05:47:03

clif wrote:And so it begins;

...

In January, the Department of Housing and Urban Development announced grants totaling $1 billion in 13 states to help communities adapt to climate change, by building stronger levees, dams and drainage systems.


I don't mean to start a climate change debate, but the fact that a grant with "climate change" written on it, has been awarded by HUD, is not necessarily an indication of climate change effects.

Regarding the island community:

The road leading to Isle de Jean Charles often floods, cutting off the community.


I would ask -- how long has it been flooding? Forever? Is it demonstrably worse, over time? If so, how much of that is due to the logging and oil operations?

For over a century, the American Indians on the island fished, hunted, trapped and farmed among the lush banana and pecan trees that once spread out for acres. But since 1955, more than 90 percent of the island’s original land mass has washed away.

Channels cut by loggers and oil companies eroded much of the island, and decades of flood control efforts have kept once free-flowing rivers from replenishing the wetlands’ sediments. Some of the island was swept away by hurricanes.


The above sounds like it was actually the "channels cut by loggers and oil companies" that eroded the whole island -- that isn't climate change.

And then also, "hurricanes" have caused erosion. So, that's normal as well.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 04 May 2016, 07:13:12

The levee approach seems the most likely. Given even the most pessimistic timeframe of sea level rise allows plenty of time to add less than 6”/year. But this doesn’t sound too radical to the Rockman who grew up 2’ below sea level in Nawlins. And if the levees had been properly maintained Katrina damage would not have been that bad. For instance had the city used those hundreds of $millions of fed money on the levees instead of that riverfront convention center we might not have had the breaches. And how did the city/Corps of Engineers justify the project: the convention center was built on top of a portion of the levee. Didn’t do the poor folks in the 9th Ward much good.

So yes: it will be expensive. But those costs could be stretched over many decades. If they start now. Which I doubt they will since politicians really hate raising taxes for necessary but long term projects that they won’t be around in the future to take credit for.
Last edited by ROCKMAN on Wed 04 May 2016, 08:31:39, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby Newfie » Wed 04 May 2016, 08:00:00

http://www.popsci.com/science/article/2 ... g-nyc-grid

Article on Mayor Bloombergs plans for NYC.

Every city is different. In Venice they ar building three billion dollar storm barriers. London already has a Thames barrier, now they are going to raise it.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby Paulo1 » Wed 04 May 2016, 08:56:09

You want to know what salt does to concrete? Try using it for de-ice a few winters on a sidewalk...and that's not worrying about the rebar spalling. It rots it out. That's why breakwaters are made with riprap and shot rock (granite). There will be no building remediation when the water rises.

My neighbour built bridge piers for a living (30 years), including some of the major structures around Vancouver BC. He was the super in charge of the pilings mentioned up above. 3' 1/2" steel casings with every seam welded over using 7018 rod...then filled with bar and concrete. One welder took 8 hours, one whole shift just to weld up the seam before the next pipe could be pounded/driven. This cannot be done after the fact, ever. Some of them went down hundreds of feet. Hundreds!
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby AgentR11 » Wed 04 May 2016, 10:33:17

The way to think about levees, dams, and tidal gates, is to think of them as buying time. None of them can be built to overmatch a cat 5+ storm; but they can give you enough time to get value out of the current office building, and build the next one where sea level rise won't get it. There should be a moratorium, or better yet, tax assessment for any new construction of significant remodel in a city core once the barriers start going up. That way there is a price associated in choosing to build past the likely lifespan of the barrier.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby Lore » Wed 04 May 2016, 10:51:03

vtsnowedin wrote:
Lore wrote:Agent is correct. Venice was designed to have its structures built on wood pilings that were meant to be submerged. Even at that as the salt water rises it's corroding the structures above where the old waterline use to be and where they felt it would never reach.

NY, Miami, NOLA and similar places subject to sea rise will crumble in a few years after the water rots the lower structure.

Building structures that are founded in salt water is pretty old technology. Think of all the bridges and causeways with their footings well below sea level. While retrofits would be expensive they would certainly be done for major buildings worth the effort. It will come down to which is cheaper? retrofiring a downtown and it's skyscrapers or moving the whole shebang further inland and up hill.


More like moving NY to Pittsburg I think.

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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 04 May 2016, 11:42:00

Lore wrote:More like moving NY to Pittsburg I think.

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Why all the way to Pittsburg?
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby AgentR11 » Wed 04 May 2016, 11:56:44

Yeah, you don't need to go all that far up the Hudson to get well clear of SLR of any scale; but it must be gradual or the traffic pattern will be a disaster as it shifts.. 30mi N there's plenty of workable space at 400+ft above MSL.

Environmentalists won't like slicing the tops off of some of those hills, but ....
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 04 May 2016, 12:49:56

What I find interesting is the phrase "The resettling begins". It is not as if these events have not happened throughout recorded history, or are associated with AGW.

I observed land lost to sea level rise in the barrier islands of Alaska in the 1970's: https://seagrant.uaf.edu/map/climate/docs/sea-level.php

I observed the king tides washing over the Marshall Islands in the 1960s when my father was stationed there: http://www.wsj.com/articles/pacific-islands-take-steps-to-counter-rising-sea-levels-1448934453#:Rz4MOUrfJ1QbsA

I saw shacks sinking into the Louisiana swamps in the 1950s: http://grist.org/climate-energy/lost-louisiana-the-race-to-reclaim-vanished-land-back-from-the-sea/

The Atlantic barrier islands from Florida to New England are regularly submerged by storm surge: https://coast.noaa.gov/digitalcoast/stories/atlantic-epa

In fact History is replete with well-documented lands lost to rising waters: http://listverse.com/2015/02/28/10-forgotten-lands-submerged-by-the-ocean/

Yet all anyone has to do is suggest that this is a new and alarming development associated with AGW, and you all start bleating like the sheep you are. Ever heard of a place called the Netherlands, reclaimed from the ocean in the Middle Ages with pumping windmills, that grows tulips?
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 04 May 2016, 13:50:41

Some people seem to have missed this part:

the first allocation of federal tax dollars to move an entire community struggling with the impacts of climate change.

The divisions the effort has exposed and the logistical and moral dilemmas it has presented point up in microcosm the massive problems the world could face in the coming decades as it confronts a new category of displaced people who have become known as climate refugees.


This is what is new--anthropogenic climate change is a factor in these relocations. Of course, it's not the only factor, but it is a major factor here.

Either supply peer-reviewed research that proves the contrary, or stfu.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby yellowcanoe » Wed 04 May 2016, 13:57:15

KaiserJeep wrote:
Yet all anyone has to do is suggest that this is a new and alarming development associated with AGW, and you all start bleating like the sheep you are. Ever heard of a place called the Netherlands, reclaimed from the ocean in the Middle Ages with pumping windmills, that grows tulips?


Yes, it is amazing what the Netherlands have accomplished. It hasn't come without a cost however. The sea defences failed in 1953 resulting in extensive flooding and the loss of almost 2000 lives. They are lucky to have geology that allows a large amount of land that is below sea level to be kept dry. Florida cannot emulate what the Netherlands have done because sea water would simply infiltrate underneath any sea defences through the porous limestone. Sea level rise due to AGW also means that the Netherlands will sooner or later have to improve their existing sea defences, otherwise they risk a repeat of 1953.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby Timo » Wed 04 May 2016, 14:03:36

Dohboi, i think the gist of those who differ in their opinions is that AGW is simply throwing fuel onto a fire that has been slowly building over the past 10,000 years, or more. The onset of industrial civilization has now accelerated that fire in myriad ways, but it did not create the fire to begin with. It has only made the fire worse and more disruptive to civilization.

The irony, of course, is that if all coastal areas are under water, there can be no fire.

No fire, no problem. Don't worry. Be happy! Just submit to the mandatory relocation, and all is well.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 04 May 2016, 14:17:41

Well, after agricultural failure and livestock failure, maybe there won't be that many to move?
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 04 May 2016, 14:57:23

Plantagenet wrote:I wonder how much it will cost to resettle the all the people who eventually will be flooded out of Miami, Charleston, Washington DC, Manhattan, Boston, Los Angeles, San Francisco, etc. etc.?

Bloomberg had a piece on that topic a while back.

(Edit: oops, forgot to paste the link to the story.)

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/ ... ashed-away

They give 4.2 million people inundated at 3 feet of SLR. Over 13 million people at 6 feet.

I wonder if the tab might go well into the $trillions.

Given the nature of the grant, from a federal agency, it looks like this implies we all will be paying for it -- even those who had the foresight to choose to live in the center of the country where hurricanes, blizzards, major floods, major earthquake zones, etc. weren't a likely (or any) problem.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Wed 04 May 2016, 15:08:11

dohboi wrote:-snip-
Either supply peer-reviewed research that proves the contrary, or stfu.


Sorry, but that is NOT how science works. It is a natural phenomenon until you provide proof that it is not. I provided evidence that land lost to ocean rise has a long and well-recorded history. Can you prove that what is happening now is the result of AGW? (Recall that evidence of warming is not evidence of AGW. The globe has been warming on schedule since the last Ice Age ended at the end of the Pleistocene.)
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby ROCKMAN » Wed 04 May 2016, 15:15:31

The fact to remember is that those 60 residents to be relocated chose to live there or were born into an area that already had flooding potential. In reality no one over 30 yo living today will have to be relocated due to sea level rise. In fact probably very few even born today will be directly effected by a sea level rise even by the time they reach retirement age. Of course the infrastructure is another matter. But again a sea level rise isn't going to flood the street of NYC next year...or in 10 or 20 years. Of course the scale is much different but in S La, due to subsidence, the coastal infrastructure has been very slowly moved inland for more then 150 years. Certainly a cost to the adjustment but it was spread out over a very long period.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 04 May 2016, 15:26:24

AgentR11 wrote: There should be a moratorium, or better yet, tax assessment for any new construction of significant remodel in a city core once the barriers start going up. That way there is a price associated in choosing to build past the likely lifespan of the barrier.

You're absolutely right of course, Agent. Unfortunately, given the political realities in the US, sadly, that seems HIGHLY unlikely for a long time to come, IMO.

First, the core GOP is dominated by people who refuse to even accept the possibility of AGW, or even warming. And many more willing to concede the massive objective data pointing to decades of warming -- but they deny AGW has anything to do with the warming. Examples of those deniers are on this site.

Second, the US is no longer about people living with the consequences of their actions. It is about buying votes by sucking as much tax money out of the makers as possible, giving it to the takers, and claiming the political class should therefore be re-elected. (Example: 80+ anti-poverty programs in the US, with a result of more poverty and (after 6 years of economic recovery) being near the peak level in food stamps (i.e. SNAP). There were roughly 20 million MORE SNAP beneficiaries in 2015 than in 2009 after six years of the Obama recovery, a near halving of the unemployment rate, many million jobs created, etc., and as the ranks of the obese swell dramatically (no pun intended).

So though this (tax assessment or moratorium) SHOULD happen, and it would help mitigate the scale of the problem down the road, I don't think it will happen for at least a decade or three, depending on how quickly things worsen via AGW impacts and SLR.

...

An industry impact that SHOULD send a very strong signal and help make the issue clear is property insurance near the sea shore. This should quickly make property insurance untenable. Unfortunately (again), with the way this country works, I see Capitol Hill racing to provide subsidies and regulations against property insurance companies to largely defray (or redistribute) such costs (to buy votes) -- thus largely masking this solution.

I wonder how liberals will view this (imposing real world costs on people in coastal areas). Given that they believe in AGW and hate deniers, you'd think they'd love imposing such costs. Also, they love forced wealth redistribution. However, they hate people facing economic consequences for their life choices -- so this is hard to predict, IMO.

It will be interesting (though expensive) to watch the political circus on BOTH sides of the aisle as events unfold.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 04 May 2016, 15:38:54

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/u ... -sea-level

https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/scie ... level.html

The slope of that increase is likely set to steepen soon, probably dramatically. Long before people are actually underwater, they will have to leave because of perpetual road flooding, cutting off access to the mainland, and because of saltwater intrusion into the water table destroying drinking wells as well as crops and trees, etc.

And of course, however gradual or accelerated, the whole thing will be punctuated by ever-more-horrific super storms. Those are really what will kill people and convince survivors to move away. We have yet to see how the real estate and insurance industries deal with or contribute to the inevitable eventual exodus from low-lying coasts and islands.

Also note that the actual sea level rise in that area is among the highest in the US--over 8 inches in the last fifty five years or so:

https://www3.epa.gov/climatechange/scie ... level.html

(note though that this particular measure is 'relative sea level rise' which includes actual slr as well as changes in land elevation...in this case, sinking)
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Re: The resettling begins

Unread postby Lore » Wed 04 May 2016, 16:01:31

vtsnowedin wrote:
Lore wrote:More like moving NY to Pittsburg I think.

Image

Why all the way to Pittsburg?


Well, possibly Harrisburg, could be Albany as well. Then again, it would probably be easier just to move the whole financial center to Chicago.
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