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Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 11:21:37

Huge Siberian pits formed due to methane release. And that isn't good.

WaPo: The news isn't good

I find it telling that nothing like these pits has previously been seen in the Arctic. That suggests warming of the permafrost has crossed a threshold into a new realm where unexpected things are now happening.

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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby basil_hayden » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 11:49:17

No one witnessed its occurrence, and similar structures are all around this one; how can this be classified as unexpected? Rare - yes, but evidence that it occurs regularly is all around this site.

If pingo ice pushes upward, there will be a ring of debris at the earth's surface. If said pingo ice melts, a hole forms, with water at the bottom. Eventually, the permafrost surrounding the former pingo ice will defrost and fill in the hole.

None of this needs bursting methane to explain what happened. Alternatively, methane and other soil gas components would be expected to be trapped beneath the pingo ice. Remove the ice and the soil gas from the unfrozen depths will migrate upwards.

Or, keep the ice and soil gas the same and make the overburden (i.e., permafrosted soil above the pingo) lighter or less competent so it's unable to hold down the pingo ice.

This is not a big deal, nor is it anything new that's never happened before. Bunch of chicken littles.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 12:30:58

bh, all the folks looking at these that I've heard of say these are new--no old plant growth in or on them, among other things. Do you have evidence to the contrary?
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 12:41:19

basil_hayden wrote:If pingo ice pushes upward, there will be a ring of debris at the earth's surface. If said pingo ice melts, a hole forms, with water at the bottom. Eventually, the permafrost surrounding the former pingo ice will defrost and fill in the hole.
As I understand it, the pingo process is a gradual subsidence over years or decades.

From the images, videos and what Marina Leibman says, these are lumps of mud (with roots sticking out) recently deposited on top of live bushes. Not this year, because there are green leaves on partly buried branches. But not long ago, since there is nothing growing on the mud.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 12:56:31

A deputy of the regional parliament - or duma - Mikhail Lapsui flew by helicopter to inspect the new Yamal crater. He said: "Its diameter is about 15 metres. "There is also ground outside, as if it was thrown as a result of an underground explosion.

"According to local residents, the hole formed on 27 September 2013.

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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 12:58:14

basil_hayden wrote:similar structures are all around this one


No they're not. These kinds of huge pits surrounded by ejected debris are something new. Nothing like this has ever been found before.

basil_hayden wrote:If ... pingo ice melts, a hole forms, with water at the bottom.


Pingos don't melt in a single summer. Its simple physics...look at the size of the hole, calculate the amount of solar insolation, and you'll find its impossible to melt that much ice in one summer season in the Arctic.

In order to convert 1 g of ice at 0 ºC to 1 g of water at 0 ºC, you have to add 334 J of heat energy. Do the math dude---its impossible to quickly melt a hole that large during the brief Arctic summer. And as Cid points out above, the local observations suggest the hole actually formed in a single day...you can't melt all that ice in a single day just from sunlight.

Nope....the gas expulsion idea is the only plausible explanation.

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Do the math, dude. It takes a lot of energy to melt ice.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 14:16:45

How the ‘mysterious holes’ formed in the Yamal peninsula
August 6, 2014 Gleb Fedorov, RIR
Noted scientists tell RIR that the holes found on the Yamal Peninsula that have sparked so much interest on the internet have no known analogues on land, but could indicate a serious degradation of the permafrost, with global implications.
...
If they are sufficiently analogous to the holes in the Kara, Pechora, Barents and other seas (these are known by the scientific term ‘pockmarks’) and are formed as a result of natural gas explosions, then this could pose a significant threat.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby Scrub Puller » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 15:37:55

Yair . . . The articles I have read do not define what is meant by "explosion" and most seem to assume some form of combustion.

I would have thought it more likely a bubble of gas became over pressured from the warming and the surface ruptured at the weakest point allowing its release.

I wouldn't think it would be too difficult to prove up the theory with a model.

Mr ROCKMAN/other Geologists what do you reckon?

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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 18:31:52

The laymen and journalists are using the term explosion. The scientists are using the terms ejection or expulsion.

The main thing journalists know about methane is that it is flammable, so tend to make the incorrect assumption explosion.

Glaciologists from the sub-Arctic research and study unit in Tyumen say that permafrost temperatures are rising steadily in the region of the Bovanenkovskoye gas field on the Yamal Peninsula in the Russian Arctic, near where the first hole was discovered. Forty years ago it was on average about eight degrees below zero, but now in certain areas it is only minus three.

“Perhaps this is precisely why the process of releasing methane from crystalline ice traps started in the depths of the northern tundra,” wrote Ranks in an article published by the Slon.ru website.

Scholars noted that pieces of earth were scattered near the crater and at a distance of 328-394 feet, which indicates that rather than collapsing, rock was in fact ejected. Moreover, traces of charring, scorching, or any other evidence indicating a thermal explosion have not been found, so the possibility of a meteorite can be ruled out. Scientists believe that the frozen earth was smashed outwards by powerful pressure from below.

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Last edited by Cid_Yama on Thu 07 Aug 2014, 18:43:20, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby dinopello » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 18:42:35

Cid_Yama wrote:The laymen and journalists are using the term explosion. The scientists are using the terms ejection or expulsion.


I prefer methane burp. If we're lucky these and whatever other ones are going to occur in the near future are unusually shallow/rare pockets affected by the initial unfreezing.

If there are a lot of these latent burps waiting to happen - well then it doesn't much matter what we do now,
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 18:48:13

The depth has been estimated at around 100 meters. Which is around the upper boundary of the hydrate stability zone in that area.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby Keith_McClary » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 19:06:02

Cid_Yama wrote: Bovanenkovskoye gas field
Map here:
http://enipedia.tudelft.nl/wiki/Bovanen ... Powerplant

I went looking for the coordinates of the pit. Found others also looking, but no answers.

It would be interesting to see before/after satellite pics.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 19:35:51

I would like to emphasize:

Forty years ago it was on average about eight degrees below zero, but now in certain areas it is only minus three.

“Perhaps this is precisely why the process of releasing methane from crystalline ice traps(methane hydrate dissociation) started in the depths of the northern tundra,” wrote Ranks in an article published by the Slon.ru website.


5 degrees Celcius higher that it was 40 years ago. Over that time it has warmed, pushing down the depth of the upper boundary of the HSZ.

As the temperature rises, the upper boundary of the Hydrate Stability Zone retreats deeper and any hydrates above that boundary become unstable, subject to dissociation.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby Cid_Yama » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 20:13:39

"For my part, whatever anguish of spirit it may cost, I am willing to know the whole truth; to know the worst and provide for it." - Patrick Henry

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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby 35Kas » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 23:17:01

There is nothing that can be done "correctly" to reverse the process of global warming and the clathrate eruption scenario. Any attempt to reduce global emissions or CO2 are a waste of time and losing preposition. Nobody (most people) will willingly sacrifice today for the chance of a better 50 years in the future, specially when they may not even be alive any longer (this applies specifically to boomers).

It is going to happen, and it will happen throughout the next 100 years in ever worsening conditions. Think tropical and equatorial zones being no-life areas, maybe life viable in the sub tropical areas. Massive and fast sea level rise and severe social strain. Easily a megadeath scenario for the lower latitudes.

Is there anything that can be done, in a geo-engineering subject, to stop or reverse this? Several things come to my mind:

The partial blocking of sunlight by an orbiting mirror constellation to induce a flash ice age.

Global thermonuclear intervention, with megaton yield warheads detonating over all major metropolitan areas would cause widespread fires that would blanket the heat from the sun and induce a flash ice age, in addition of significantly reducing global population and the consumption of fossil fuels.

Using widespread collection of methane gas from the ocean and tundra seep points in order to use it as an energy source and prevent its accumulation in the atmosphere. It would still generate vast amounts of CO2 but it is more manageable as a global warming agent. The harvesting of bubbling gas could be done by use of impermeable blankets that funnel into flaring stations that generate electricity in the surface.

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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 07 Aug 2014, 23:57:35

But...oh, never mind.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby basil_hayden » Fri 08 Aug 2014, 07:49:17

dohboi wrote:bh, all the folks looking at these that I've heard of say these are new--no old plant growth in or on them, among other things. Do you have evidence to the contrary?


Nowhere did I ever say or even imply this feature was old. Of course it's new.
So you can take your call for evidence and stick it where the sun isn't shining.

What I did say was that this has happened before (example - every other hole in the Yamal Peninsula) and guess what?
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby basil_hayden » Fri 08 Aug 2014, 07:59:57

Plantagenet wrote:No they're not. These kinds of huge pits surrounded by ejected debris are something new. Nothing like this has ever been found before.



Utter crap. Rockdoc has already shown a picture of the exact same geometry from a place in Canada, I believe, on the other thread.

Melt a giant ice cube in the Arctic in one summer? Who said is was a giant ice cube and not simply a veneer of ice?
Stop pulling answers from your rear end and start coming up with the right questions first.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby dohboi » Fri 08 Aug 2014, 08:34:24

Riiight, so now you're parroting rd who is parroting WUWT. Thanks, you have saved me a lot of time since I don't need to read your posts anymore.
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Re: Huge pits forming in Arctic permafrost

Unread postby basil_hayden » Fri 08 Aug 2014, 12:44:08

dohboi wrote:Riiight, so now you're parroting rd who is parroting WUWT. Thanks, you have saved me a lot of time since I don't need to read your posts anymore.


I have no idea what WUWT is, and don't parrot. I'm presenting my observations as a trained geoscientist.

There are intermediate steps between what we're seeing in this newly formed feature and historic features similar in appearance.

Maybe those intermediate steps will be documented by geologists now.

As far as you reading my posts, not a single #$%^ was given.
While I've never blocked a poster here you certainly top my list; however, my level of caring can't even manage to push a few buttons to do it as you're not worth it, but thanks for your unsolicited input.
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