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Miocene Anthropocene Future

Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Ibon » Wed 15 May 2019, 14:09:09

You guys continue to be focused on the side of the correction that needs correcting and calling this apocalyptic. It's the opposite.The other side is the reversal of the human footprint on the planet. The great tide of parasitic humanity recedes and begins to open up vast areas of human landscapes to the recolonization of displaced flora and fauna.

Stop being so fucking human centric all the time guys and gals.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 15 May 2019, 14:32:56

Ibon wrote:You guys continue to be focused on the side of the correction that needs correcting and calling this apocalyptic. It's the opposite.The other side is the reversal of the human footprint on the planet. The great tide of parasitic humanity recedes and begins to open up vast areas of human landscapes to the recolonization of displaced flora and fauna.

Stop being so fucking human centric all the time guys and gals.


More or less agree. Where I live about 20% of the farmland has been allowed to revert to wild woodlot as the farms too small to compete with the corporate megafarms went broke over the last 40 years. Its sad for those families, but the deer and coyote populations had rebounded to levels most would not think possible back in the 1960's.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 15 May 2019, 18:04:35

Ibon wrote:The great tide of parasitic humanity recedes and begins to open up vast areas of human landscapes to the recolonization of displaced flora and fauna.

Stop being so fucking human centric all the time guys and gals.


It is highly unlike that humans will be hit hard and other species will just replace us. Mass extinctions don't work that way.

When the climate goes haywire and a mass extinction event occurs, it decimates ALL life on earth. Some past mass extinctions events have taken out 20-30% of all species, but the one at the end of the Permian is thought to have exterminated over 90% of all the species on earth.

There is no reason to think this current mass extinction event will operate differently then those that happened in the past, so chances are that humans and their civilization and a large percentage of all the species on earth will all go into the dustbin of history together.

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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby jedrider » Wed 15 May 2019, 18:52:17

A Doctor Strangelove just, maybe, will appear with a solution to this dilemma.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Wed 15 May 2019, 21:08:25

The linked article and associated reference, discusses a number of relatively recent paleo multi-century-scale abrupt deep-water warming events associated with a slowing of the MOC/AMOC. Further it notes that one such abrupt multi-century-scale deep-water slowing event has been underway for the about the last century and that:

'If further weakening happens in the future, there may be unexpectedly broad implications not only on our atmospheric and ocean systems, but also on Earth's ecological systems and our society.'

Regarding Dr. Yasuhara's comment that such multi-century-scale MOC slowing event may broadly change our atmosphere; indicates that if the WAIS were to begin a MICI-type of collapse beginning around 2040; then we could see abrupt changes in the atmosphere, such as the significant telecommunication of energy associated with water evaporation from the tropical oceans moving rapidly poleward through the atmosphere. This represents a significant climate risk to the stability of modern society.

Title: "Century-Scale Deep-Water Circulation Dynamics in the North Atlantic Ocean"

https://phys.org/news/2019-05-century-s ... north.html

Extract: "Dr. Yasuhara and his collaborators showed that subtropical North Atlantic intermediate-water temperature varied significantly during both of these time periods, based on trace element geochemistry of calcified shells of deep-sea microcrustacean Ostracoda in a sediment core. Their reconstructions reveal a series of multi-century-scale abrupt deep-water warming events likely caused by the reduction deep-water circulation. The authors also discovered that many of these weakening events of deep-water circulation can be widely recognized in the western North Atlantic.

Lead author of the study Dr. Yasuhara said "Holocene deep-water circulation was more dynamic than previously thought. There is increasing evidence that this circulation change in the North Atlantic affects climates of remote places including East Asia and also marine and terrestrial ecosystems. As recently discovered by scientists including my HKU colleagues Drs Benoit Thibodeau and Christelle Not, this global deep-water circulation has substantially weakened during the last century.

If further weakening happens in the future, there may be unexpectedly broad implications not only on our atmospheric and ocean systems, but also on Earth's ecological systems and our society.
"

See also:

Moriaki Yasuhara et al. (2019), "North Atlantic intermediate water variability over the past 20,000 years", Geology, https://doi.org/10.1130/G46161.1

https://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/gsa/ge ... ility-over

Abstract: "North Atlantic intermediate-water temperature variations based on ostracod Mg/Ca ratios from Ocean Drilling Program (ODP) Hole 1055B document a series of multi-centennial-scale abrupt warming events throughout the last deglaciation and Holocene (up to ~3 °C). These events are coherent with abrupt climate reversals including Heinrich event 1, the Younger Dryas–Intra-Allerød cold period, and Holocene North Atlantic Deep Water (NADW) reduction periods. Deglacial–Holocene warm events were likely related to reduction in the strength of the upper NADW (Labrador Sea Water). We also found a long-term cooling trend in the ODP 1055 Mg/Ca record indicating continuous Labrador Sea Water strengthening throughout the Holocene. Our results help to better understand deglacial–Holocene upper NADW dynamics that remain poorly understood but can be important for regional and global climates."

;;;;;;;;;;

Many species could be even more likely to go extinct than we realise


https://phys.org/news/2019-05-species-e ... alise.html

A new study published in the Journal of Applied Ecology found that some methods for measuring a species' generation time might underestimate the likelihood that some species will die out.

... The challenge of accurately assessing extinction risk begins with a lack of data on endangered species. Even for mammals and birds – which are the most well studied groups – population data covers a mere 4.4% of the 1,079 threatened mammals and 3.5% of the 1,183 threatened birds. To bridge the gaps, scientists often rely on assumptions regarding survival, reproduction and generation time.

We found that in some risk assessment models that rely on these assumptions, errors can emerge. This is because population reduction in some of the assessed models is measured on the scale of three times a species' generation time. If a species is believed to mature and produce offspring in five years, then how much its population has declined will be measured over a 15-year interval.

But if a species' generation time is underestimated, population reduction is measured over a much shorter time period. It therefore underestimates how much the population is shrinking and, in turn, the threat status of the species. This can lead us to believe that the species is less endangered than it really is.


(thanks to aslr and vox at asif)
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Thu 16 May 2019, 19:25:25

Carbon dioxide hits a level not seen for 3 million years. Here's what that means for climate change — and humanity.

Scientists are sounding the alarm over the potential for catastrophic changes to our environment.

https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/ca ... cna1005231

Sooo, we're already well into the Pliocene. How soon will we be hitting Miocene levels? And what is the most accurate estimate of CO2e levels now, anyway...that's what we really should be looking at, it seems to me.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Revi » Fri 17 May 2019, 08:53:27

dohboi wrote:Carbon dioxide hits a level not seen for 3 million years. Here's what that means for climate change — and humanity.

Scientists are sounding the alarm over the potential for catastrophic changes to our environment.

https://www.nbcnews.com/mach/science/ca ... cna1005231

Sooo, we're already well into the Pliocene. How soon will we be hitting Miocene levels? And what is the most accurate estimate of CO2e levels now, anyway...that's what we really should be looking at, it seems to me.


This is a scary quote from the article:
“We’re not going to see the full consequences of 415 parts per million of carbon dioxide today,” Jackson said. “It’ll take a thousand years of people — 30 generations of people — to pay the price of what we’re doing today.”
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Ibon » Fri 17 May 2019, 10:09:59

Plantagenet wrote:
It is highly unlike that humans will be hit hard and other species will just replace us. Mass extinctions don't work that way.

When the climate goes haywire and a mass extinction event occurs, it decimates ALL life on earth.


Why do I even bother still coming here engaging in dialogue with amateurs?

Humans and their slave animals and crops have blanketed 45% of terrestrial earth. I can name off the top of my head 15 species that make up this juggernaut; humans, corn, soy, rice, cattle, pigs, chickens, dogs, potatoes, oil palm, plantains, sweet potatoes, sorghum, yams. Before we go further consider that a dairy cow or GMO corn cannot exist without the petro chemicals and industrial agriculture that supports it, these are genetically selected organisms married to industrial agriculture and if released in the wild will not even produce one generation of offspring.

Those 15 species you put on one column. On the other column you have tens of millions of species, many still not classified, all of that inventory of refuge biodiversity humming along in intact ecosystems. On any altitude or latitude gradient you can see within even one species a rich genetic gene pool with adaptability across a suite of environmental parameters including temperature, rainfall, food sources etc.

Yes, climate change will effect both columns. And yes, climate change will put a dent into those hundreds of millions of species making up the biodiversity of natural ecosystems.

But in terms of adaptability to change there is no contest when comparing the vulnerability of whats in column 1 vs whats in column 2.

Climate change is one of the important vectors to correct human overshoot. Disproportionately it will effect humans and their slave crops and animals. And when that retreat happens the speed at which natural ecosystems will recolonize former human landscapes will be astonishing.

In the tropics there are ficus tree roots just waiting to get a foothold on concrete.

Pioneer species around the planet buying their time waiting in the shadows, in the flash of a moment of geologic time they will make this current incarnation of Kudzu Ape irrelevant.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 17 May 2019, 13:29:49

That's heartening to know Ibon.

It appears we are heading for two extinction events, one in the near term and one in the long term.

Ibon mentions the near term event, and that is the one we will experience.

I'm pretty sure that we have nothing to worry about the long term event as none of us, or our offspring, will be alive for that one.

Ibon is right in that even if there were a significant environmental extinction event, it will still be much better than what mankind has been wreaking on the animal kingdom to date.

[I shouldn't fail to mention that the sooner, the better, as well!]
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Plantagenet » Fri 17 May 2019, 18:36:46

Ibon wrote:Why do I even bother still coming here engaging in dialogue with amateurs?


Perhaps for the same reason the rest of us do. Sometimes you learn something and sometimes its good for some yuks.

Ibon wrote:... yes, climate change will put a dent into those hundreds of millions of species making up the biodiversity of natural ecosystems.


I'm glad to see you agree with me on that. The UN says much the same thing---just last week they released a report saying we're looking at large losses of species in the near future.

Ibon wrote:Climate change is one of the important vectors to correct human overshoot. Disproportionately it will effect humans and their slave crops and animals. And when that retreat happens the speed at which natural ecosystems will recolonize former human landscapes will be astonishing.

In the tropics there are ficus tree roots just waiting to get a foothold on concrete.

Pioneer species around the planet buying their time waiting in the shadows, in the flash of a moment of geologic time they will make this current incarnation of Kudzu Ape irrelevant.


That may be so. But climate change isn't going to stop the instant that happens leaving those ficus trees happily growing up through the concrete in now-abandoned human cities......as the planet warms it is creating feedback loops which will lead to huge releases from natural carbon reservoirs that will dwarf the current anthropogenic CO2 releases. Already CO2, CH4 and NO2 are being released from permafrost, amplifying and increasing the warming caused by human CO2 releases. There are even bigger CO2 reservoirs on continental shelves that may also be released. The loss of humans isn't going to mean the end of global warming.....by the time humans are lost the planet itself will be set on course for more and more more global warming due to positive feedback responses to the ongoing global warming.

These changes will displace and destroy entire ecosystems. The size and scope of these changes are hard to predict exactly, but we do know from studies of paleo records that such changes have resulted in the loss of 20-90% of all species on earth during past mass extinction events.

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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 18 May 2019, 12:22:39

"intact ecosystems"

These are disappearing rapidly.

Previous mass extinctions eliminated up to 90% of all species. Most experts now think most of these were mostly driven by GW.

Ibon obviously knows this. So I am wondering if Ibon could inform our poor amateur a$$eS if he thinks that for some reason our current mass extinction event, driven not only by GW but by the many other disruptions humans have introduced into the physical and chemical environment, will be basically an extinction non-event, and why. :)
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Tanada » Sat 18 May 2019, 13:36:16

dohboi wrote:"intact ecosystems"

These are disappearing rapidly.

Previous mass extinctions eliminated up to 90% of all species. Most experts now think most of these were mostly driven by GW.

Ibon obviously knows this. So I am wondering if Ibon could inform our poor amateur a$$eS if he thinks that for some reason our current mass extinction event, driven not only by GW but by the many other disruptions humans have introduced into the physical and chemical environment, will be basically an extinction non-event, and why. :)


A bit over the top IMO. An average mass extinction killed off around 60-65% of life forms, only one exceeded 90%. Also whether a local ecosystem is viable or not varies wildly with location. The ecosystem in Chernobyl is complex nearly at the climax state it was before people started interfering and the same is true of most of the Taiga forest that circles the earth between 55-75 degrees north. On the other hand the ecosystems in India and Japan and on the island of Java have been simplified and minimized by human impacts eliminating natural spaces. Most of North and South America and Australia are somewhere in the middle because our human population density remains low. The same is true of Siberia which is mostly that Taiga forest I mentioned earlier. Also the Sahel, the great prairie zones of Africa, human impacts remain lower though in some places like Chad over grazing has caused disruption of the ecosystem.

Right now unfortunately or otherwise there is a population boom going on in North America, South America, Australia, and Africa so if nothing changes in another 50 years it could be just as gloomy as your statements imply. I don't think the climate flip will hold off that long however, and I expect that to be a mass depopulating event as food importing regions suffer massive famines.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby dohboi » Sat 18 May 2019, 14:00:12

Good points (as usual), T.

One thing to keep in mind is that there is already a mass extinction going on, mostly NOT having to do with the damaging effects of GW. We will basically be piling another global mass extinction event on top of that as the more and more catastrophic effects of GW start piling on. So I expect it will be more like the Permian-Triasic greatest mass extinction (since the evolution of complex life), or worse, rather than one of the 'lesser' ones, horrific as even that level would be.

And as we know, the P-T event saw 96% of marine species vanish.

We can sit around and cheer about the 4% that made it, I suppose... :|
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby Ibon » Sat 18 May 2019, 19:50:50

dohboi wrote:
One thing to keep in mind is that there is already a mass extinction going on, mostly NOT having to do with the damaging effects of GW.


This is true. The rest of your post is a bit hyperbole and conjecture.

Habitat destruction and the introduction of invasive species represent cause number 1 and cause number 2 of the current rise of extinctions globally. The mosquito and the rat have caused far more extinctions in the 19th century than GW has caused to date in the 21st century. Rats and mosquitoes caused the extinction of over 25 bird species alone in Hawaii in the past 200 years.

Going down on the food chain to insect vectors carrying blights and fungal diseases and the extinction rates go exponentially higher in the 20th century due to invasive species. Think American Chestnut caused by a asian blight carried by a bug or the Chytrid fungus spread from the pet trade that invaded native habitat globally and has alone caused the extinction of dozens of species of amphibians globally in the last 20 years. These are just a couple of examples. Go talk to some Australians if you want more info on the devastating impact of invasive species on native flora and fauna.

We get regularly fresh information regarding this first hand from specialists who visit us and are directly involved in working with the cause number 1 and cause number 2 mentioned above. We don't get climate change scientists coming here, my first hand inputs come directly from many of our guests dedicated to preserving biodiversity, doing taxonomy and also studying the ramification of invasives. A lot of my information and my own conclusions come from this interaction and what I have observed directly here in the 400 acres I know intimately.

I frankly have very little patience for posters who copy and paste studies from the internet and then draw hyperbolic amateur conclusions regarding global warming. It is one of my reasons I see the internet as decadent because one gets the impression by engaging in this way that they are actually having some sort of impact. What is all this posting about apocolyptic mass extinction predictions contributing anyway toward effective mitigation? When is the last time you paid attention to a Jehovah Witness who rang your doorbell?

Basically though I am in agreement Dohboi, yes, things are fucked up enough without piling on the future consequences of GW. But I see GW acting as glyphosate mostly on humanity, it will disproportionately impact the very fragile arrangement of humans and their slave flora and fauna. I welcome this along with any of the other vectors and direct pathogens that seriously but a dent in the out of balance status of human overshoot.

Furthermore, It makes no sense to dwell on future impacts of climate change when the cultural paradigm and inertia of feeding and meeting the aspirations of a growing population of Kudzu Apes has each and every government paralyzed to do any real mitigation. That is the sad and real truth. And it will become more so as the consequences themselves increasingly will create a reaction of putting out fires instead of addressing what is fueling those fires..... no pun intended. We are locked into this sad reality and external agency is the only viable mitigation, of which I predict climate change will be key.

Frankly, I don't give a rats ass for the dire straits of humanity heading into the painful decades of the correction of human overshoot, the BIG SQUEEZE as I like to refer it. My focus is on those pockets of refugee populations of native ecosystems standing on the sidelines waiting for the big squeeze to open space for recolonization. That is my singular focus actually. Refuge populations of flora and fauna is what will be key to minimizing the degree of extinction.

If the refuge population of native flora and fauna is completely obliterated like on many Philippine islands in SE Asia well then yep, this will be a grand royal fuck up and yes a mass extinction event. Look around though and there are vast and I mean vast areas of still preserved biodiversity and quite a bit of successful biodiversity studies during the past 50 years that have identified biodiversity hot spots and as a result national parks and preserves and conservation areas have been established. These refugee populations can be as small as a few acres..... The most iconic example perhaps on the planet is to fly into Borneo or Sumatra and look down from the airplane at the vast monoculture of oil palms that goes on mile after mile until you reach the small remnant national parks where Orangutans are holding on. A tiny island of natural ecosystem, of biodiversity surrounded by an immense mono culture of one of humans slave crops. The scenario in my head looks at the crash of demand for oil palm once consequences of human overshoot starts the retreat of our global population. As oil palm plantations are abandoned how long do you think it would take in Borneo for refuge populations of native ecosystems in those few remaining national parks to recolonize these areas? I have witnessed enough examples of this bounce back to be pretty confident at the answer.


Dohboi, since you recognize habitat destruction and invasive species as the current real cause of the rise in extinctions surely you should recognize that this is the one area where direct action can be taken, preserving remaining pockets and refuge areas that will represent the source material of biodiversity from where former human habitat will one day be recolonized.

The GW stuff is sadly not within our capability to mitigate, not with the inertia mentioned above. For this reason I see it as an ally to correcting human overshoot instead of something to fret over.

That is my rant on this topic.

If there is a last point it is that I have never trusted the concern over climate change while everyone was looking the other way over the cause no. 1 and cause no. 2 of extinctions. (habitat destruction and invasives)

If you want to know the really sad truth concern over climate change is more about preserving the status quo rather than changing it.

Fixing threats to human resiliency is not a good idea at this late stage of human overshoot. The concern over climate change reeks of this hypocrisy.
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Re: Miocene Anthropocene Future

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sat 18 May 2019, 20:42:05

It's not like any mass extinction of any type will have any lasting impact on those Kudzu Apes, either. Whether it is shortages of food or clean water, pollution, loss of habitat, climate change, etc. etc., the human species has both intelligence and technology, and computers never forget. If 1% of say 9 billion humans survive after the environmment crashes, they will have the existing tech including most of the production facilities and copious salvaged raw materials, and they will be throttled by the feeble energy sources available after fossil fuels are gone. The result is that that 1% (which is 90 Million apes out of 9 Billion) will expand in numbers, steadily and remorselessly, until they again reach the sustainable limit of humans on the planet.

Then they will keep reproducing, until the next collapse.

Although the popular misconception is that we all slip back to a lower level of tech, that idea is simply not credible. There is entirely too much productivity gain from digital technology, networking, and information systems, and humans will never again be without such. The network stretches from pole to pole and if the post-AGW equatorial zone gets too warm for comfort, we will still live there using technology.

Whatever animal capacity the wounded planet has will always be 95% Kudzu Apes. We are not going away. Nor is healing the planet necessarily going to happen, ever.

Time to take a step back from the popular misconceptions, to see them as the nonsense they are.
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