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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 14:03:46

asg70 wrote:With attitudes like that then there's no way for the site to bounce back, that's for sure.

Once the situation becomes dire again, the site will bounce back.

It's just a joke!

It's always a good idea to laugh about things you can't change.
EV use might be good for your personal salvation, but it won't keep a single drop of oil in the ground.
If anything, it will make oil cheaper, encouraging further consumption.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 14:05:23

This showed up in my youtube recommendations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlTek_kv2DY

Looks like the doomer niche have picked up on the durability aspect of the Cybertruck.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 18:01:28

asg70 wrote:This showed up in my youtube recommendations.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QlTek_kv2DY

Looks like the doomer niche have picked up on the durability aspect of the Cybertruck.

Very interesting and I agree with much of his analysis. I am trying to talk the wife into going for the $100 just in hopes that it will be worth buying when it is actually ready for delivery. Hitting a brick wall on that so far but all she needs is one more purchase on her art hobby before I can claim sauce for the goose equals sauce for the gander.
In rural Vermont being the first to drive up to the main street store in a cyber truck would be the equivalent of driving down Daytona beech in a new or classic Corvette with a centerfold babe in the passenger seat.
Thinking about it.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 18:11:35

In rural Vermont being the first to drive up to the main street store in a cyber truck would be the equivalent of driving down Daytona beech in a new or classic Corvette with a centerfold babe in the passenger seat.


Jaysus glad I don't live in Vermont. In our neighborhood showing up with one of those would be not much different than the fat kid showing up first day at school with his collar buttoned-up, a pencil protector in his shirt pocket and his pants pulled up to just below his chest. You must be talking about the non-redneck part of Vermont :P
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 18:23:32

rockdoc123 wrote:
In rural Vermont being the first to drive up to the main street store in a cyber truck would be the equivalent of driving down Daytona beech in a new or classic Corvette with a centerfold babe in the passenger seat.


Jaysus glad I don't live in Vermont. In our neighborhood showing up with one of those would be not much different than the fat kid showing up first day at school with his collar buttoned-up, a pencil protector in his shirt pocket and his pants pulled up to just below his chest. You must be talking about the non-redneck part of Vermont :P
A "semi" bullet proof 4x4 truck with suspension adjustment for the terrain before you chargeable from the solar panels on your barn roof? What red neck Vermontah would not want one. Need to see the hookup to the snow plow of course and what the tires will do in mud and snow at the same time but we will see.
And if you think I am not the the epitome of redneck in Vermont you have not been paying attention.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 03 Dec 2019, 22:14:33

I think the frontend itself could function like a snowplow ;)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Wed 04 Dec 2019, 03:20:20

asg70 wrote:I think the frontend itself could function like a snowplow ;)

Battering ram yes snowplow no. It would have some recessed ports in the belly sheet for attachment of the "Minute Man" plow mounts And that front nose better be hiding a winch mount or a beer cooler or both. :)
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 05 Dec 2019, 14:36:21

It just happened again. On "black friday" dozens of Teslas in California wound up waiting in a line more than a half mile long, inching forward for hours until they could at last creep up to to chargers and get recharged.

Chaos-California-Tesla-drivers-stranded-hours-half-mile-long-line-charge

THis is bad PR for Tesla. They've got a wonderful product, but there's a problem if people can't actually use their EVs to travel around town and even go on intercity trips the same way people do in their ICE vehicles.

I'm surprised every gas station in the country isn't adding superchargers right now. There clearly is a need for them. Do the gas stations make a profit when EVs come in to recharge....or is it free? Maybe the price of a recharge should be set higher, to incentivize gas stations to add more chargers?

Image
Why are we waiting in this long line? Rumor has it if we wait in this line for hours we can get our Teslas recharged.....

CHEERS!
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 07 Dec 2019, 22:08:44

Plantagenet wrote:I
I'm surprised every gas station in the country isn't adding superchargers right now. There clearly is a need for them. Do the gas stations make a profit when EVs come in to recharge....or is it free? Maybe the price of a recharge should be set higher, to incentivize gas stations to add more chargers?

I wonder why this (to the extent of being a trend, not all gas stations) isn't true as well.

Could regulations be an issue? After all, very high current and gasoline don't seem like things that are overly safe if anything goes wrong. Maybe as the proportion of BEV's rise this will change.

The tipping point has GOT to be economics, at the end of the day. Gas stations have great locations overall, and are well dispersed, so the convenience potential for BEV drivers seems blindingly obvious.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 00:18:30

The tipping point has GOT to be economics, at the end of the day. Gas stations have great locations overall, and are well dispersed, so the convenience potential for BEV drivers seems blindingly obvious.


exactly. A company that sells petrol at their stations has to have the incentive in place to provide charging, it doesn't make sense if their research shows not large enough demand. But that aside I've said this before a single station even if they replaced all of their gasoline pumps with charging stations is still not sufficient to power a large EV compliment. Think about it, when you fill your normal car with gasoline you can do it in about 1 minute at most. That means with 8 pumps a large station can have some pretty large throughput. I have seen that even with that many pumps during peak tourist season in certain areas that there are line ups. Now say all of those pumps are charging stations but it takes 20 minutes to charge each vehicle. You don't need to use advanced calculus to figure out there are going to be huge lineups. To my mind, you will need 4 times (at least) as many stations as you currently have. Bill Gates made a fairly astute observation that when looking at the energy transition story you need to bring math to the table. Most people aren't willing to do that simply because the math is not very encouraging when you start to run all the numbers. This is one of the reasons I have a view that our goals have to be not complete transition but a gradual transition over a very long time. I think this will work if everyone bought into it now rather than a decade from now.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 06:38:37

Rockdoc::
Yes we need to bring math to the table, it will show up invited or not.
In a fully developed EV market most owners will have charging setups at wherever they park their car in their off hours. That is equivalent to having a gas pump in most private garages and where say eighty to ninety percent of charging will take place. Then the demand for chargers at what are now fuel stations will be just ten to twenty percent of what the number of cars they are servicing today.
I expect there will be considerable reluctance by gas stations to add charging stations as it switches profits away from their parent oil companies to the electric utilities providing the power. They certainly will not quick charge EVs for free or at a loss to them bottom line.
I also would not faint from shock if Exxon and the other fossil fuel corporations started buying up shares in electric utilities including grid distribution systems and solar and wind farms.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 10:37:34

rockdoc123 wrote:a single station even if they replaced all of their gasoline pumps with charging stations is still not sufficient to power a large EV compliment.


They don't have to, because most EV owners charge at home, something gas car owners can't do.

Also, some perspective is in order. Go watch an old Peak Oil video like End of Suburbia.
As long as EVs have enough range to handle the daily commute when charged up at home, they'll be viable. Road tripping is a nice-to-have but not a must-have. This is a first-world-problem.

rockdoc123 wrote:This is one of the reasons I have a view that our goals have to be not complete transition but a gradual transition over a very long time. I think this will work if everyone bought into it now rather than a decade from now.


The problem with charging stations is it's first-come-first-serve. There is no ability to pre-reserve a station therefore you leave for your trip not knowing if your target station will remain available.

The charging network must be handled more like reserving a table at a restaurant or a conference room in a shared office-space. You've got a window in which to arrive and do your thing. Unfortunately charging stations are at this wild-west period where they aren't all wired into the net very well.

You will still get contention for chargers but people will be able to plan their trips at the source rather than lining up at the chargers in mid-trip.

If people hate so much being locked out then you can set up a bartering process to buy out someone else's reservation.

EVs are different from ICE. They have a different user profile and drivers have to learn to adapt. If someone knows in advance they'll be taking a lot of long trips they could always opt for a plugin hybrid.

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 11:32:50

EVs are different from ICE. They have a different user profile and drivers have to learn to adapt. If someone knows in advance they'll be taking a lot of long trips they could always opt for a plugin hybrid.


your solution might address the issue if we were just talking about a small replacement of the ICE fleet but the discussion was about 100% replacement which I am still adamant most people who are on the bandwagon haven't done the math. Waving your hands in the air and saying, oh it will work people always figure a way through problems is a major copout.

Where I live people commuting is one thing but the norm is for folks to drive into the mountains on the weekends and those round trips can't be done with a single charge especially in the winter when there is huge traffic into the mountain ski resorts. During the summer the number of vehicles on the highway driving west from Calgary (last major centre on a westerly trip) with a goal of Vancouver is very significant and that is going to require charging along the way. There are always lineups at the gas stations so it is impossible to imagine a scenario where there would not be a significant problem with charging stations. Set up an "appointment" to charge....well great in theory but in practicality, all it takes is for one or two vehicles to be a bit late which given the distances traveled, variable weather conditions, normal amount of delays due to accidents, wildlife on the roads, avalanches, rock fall etc is a guaranty.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby vtsnowedin » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 13:23:38

I don't believe anyone ever proposed a 100 percent switchover to full EVs. Even if you tried it would take twenty years or more to wear out the existing fleet of Ices , especially the heavy diesel trucks. Where you are Rockdoc out in the west of Canada is possible the worst case and would be the last to change over if ever. In the meantime there are millions of average drivers that have daily commutes of thirty miles or less each way that already own two vehicles that can switch over with ease and drive the other car for long trips using the gas they saved during the week driving the EV.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby rockdoc123 » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 13:59:15

In the meantime there are millions of average drivers that have daily commutes of thirty miles or less each way that already own two vehicles that can switch over with ease and drive the other car for long trips using the gas they saved during the week driving the EV.


which is what I have been proposing....a gradual shift that will make sense. That being said one still has to do the math as it's not a simple as throwing a switch and voila everyone is driving EVs to work every day. The current setup in many North American cities will not support the additional load if it is concentrated in a certain time period. We live in the country but those in the city here still see minor brownouts in the winter right at peak usage when kids are home from school and have their various gizmos running at full strength, lights are all on, furnaces are cranked up etc. Imagine adding to that 3/4 of a million EV's plugged in essentially at the same time. You can't just say....well everyone will put up solar panels and have Tesla wall batteries simply because in Canada during the winter the sun is very low on the horizon so active charging is challenged (anecdotally a good friend of mine has been monitoring charging levels on his solar panels year-round for the last two years. He has basically decided to not even bother with it during the winter as there is so little charge generated). Add to that the fact that no matter what you need to figure a way of cleaning the snow off of the solar panels which is challenging if they are on the roof of a two-story home with steep sides (needed in snow country). I point this out simply because there are many people who seem to believe there are not going to be any challenges. It is clear there are and just saying oh don't worry about it doesn't cut it to my mind. You need to understand all the potential problems and issues so they can be addressed appropriately otherwise you are just counting on fairy dust to make things magically happen.
An interesting point someone told me about recently that I thought was significant: a 100 times growth in the number of electric vehicles to 400 million on the roads by 2040 would displace only 5% of global oil demand. And replacing all hydrocarbon power with electricity over the next 30 years would require a construction program building out a grid at a rate 14 fold greater than any time in history. I'm not saying any of this is impossible but there are some significant challenges that need to be recognized.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 08 Dec 2019, 18:47:36

rockdoc123 wrote:Set up an "appointment" to charge....well great in theory but in practicality, all it takes is for one or two vehicles to be a bit late


100% convenience is impossible. You can't always guarantee a table at a fashionable restaurant when you want it and that sort of thing is true of any limited resource. If people feel it's soooo essential to jump in their vehicle and drive exactly at the same time then they can just not buy an EV and be happy paying for gas.

I just find this whole thing to be a tempest in a teapot considering that peak oil was supposed to amount to Mad Max doom.

rockdoc123 wrote:The current setup in many North American cities will not support the additional load


So that's the future of peaoil.com, I guess. Certain posters waiting and waiting for rolling blackouts instead of $10 oil? Doesn't sound that scary (or likely).

rockdoc123 wrote:I point this out simply because there are many people who seem to believe there are not going to be any challenges.


You come across as if you're the first person in the world to identify this issue. A quick google search shows that you're not.

https://www.wired.com/story/electric-ca ... tric-grid/
https://www.governing.com/topics/transp ... -grid.html

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-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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