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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 3 (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 21:28:12

asg70 wrote: .... ad hom...


You too can make posts that actually contain facts instead of just ad homs, asg/mos/ennui.

Why not try it?

Who knows....it might even lead to actual conversations.

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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 21:47:13

Plant, if you have something you want to say to me 1 on 1, take it to PM because it's polluting this thread. Any more of this and I start flagging.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Mon 30 Sep 2019, 22:02:13

mousepad wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
dolanbaker wrote:Car transporter companies probably need to reevaluate the loadings on their vehicles and carry one car less to avoid the possible overloading that is causing the brakes to overheat.

That's a point worth considering. I suppose it matters how how much margin such trucks are designed for. And perhaps the expected terrain for the delivery. Typical Indiana terrain is far different than, say, a Rocky Mountain pass.

You'd think such things should be obvious to a trucking company, but with the tendency to maximize profit and minimize employee pay (where the perception is it "won't matter") to get that profit -- perhaps not.


What about drivers who actually know how to drive a truck?
You know, jake brake, and shifting to lower gears when going down a mountain pass. The good old skill of actually driving a truck.

Are you implying that such skill means weight won't impact brake performance? Yeah, things like engine braking (by using a lower gear) will help -- it even helps with an automatic in a sedan -- but that doesn't mean things like the weight of the cargo doesn't matter.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 07:10:51

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
mousepad wrote:
What about drivers who actually know how to drive a truck?
You know, jake brake, and shifting to lower gears when going down a mountain pass. The good old skill of actually driving a truck.

Are you implying that such skill means weight won't impact brake performance? Yeah, things like engine braking (by using a lower gear) will help -- it even helps with an automatic in a sedan -- but that doesn't mean things like the weight of the cargo doesn't matter.


A skilled driver understands his load and he understands the limits of his truck. You can feel when brakes are pushed too far, because they loose effectiveness. A skilled driver knows how to listen to the little things the machine tells him.

Coasting down on high gear from a mountain pass while constantly braking is surely going to set any brakes on fire. Even car brakes can be made to glow red in such situations.

It all comes down to how skilled you are a the job you do.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 11:21:23

mousepad wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:
mousepad wrote:
What about drivers who actually know how to drive a truck?
You know, jake brake, and shifting to lower gears when going down a mountain pass. The good old skill of actually driving a truck.

Are you implying that such skill means weight won't impact brake performance? Yeah, things like engine braking (by using a lower gear) will help -- it even helps with an automatic in a sedan -- but that doesn't mean things like the weight of the cargo doesn't matter.


A skilled driver understands his load and he understands the limits of his truck. You can feel when brakes are pushed too far, because they loose effectiveness. A skilled driver knows how to listen to the little things the machine tells him.

Coasting down on high gear from a mountain pass while constantly braking is surely going to set any brakes on fire. Even car brakes can be made to glow red in such situations.

It all comes down to how skilled you are a the job you do.

Skill certainly matters. Weight certainly matters. And we know from observing semi-truck drivers that some truck drivers are very good, and unfortunately, some are VERY bad. (For two examples of errors showing bad ones, I've nearly been hit by one making a turn with no warning and only avoided it by being more agile (in my car -- I figured it would be embarrassing and total my car, to let a semi truck hit me). Or nearly knocked off a mountain (knob in Appalachia) as a child by one coming around a blind corner on a country road on the WRONG side of the road. Luckily, my dad stopped dead right next to the guard rail, and the idiot barely missed us. That one would have killed 4 out on a boy scout trip.)

I wonder how skilled the average truck driver is being hired for Musk's fleet, given the ways Tesla is trying to conserve cash.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 01 Oct 2019, 17:37:22

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Weight certainly matters.


The weight limit is 80k lbs on US roads, it's 40kg on european roads. Trucks are made for this weight and trucks are loaded as close to this limit as possible.

It's the drivers responsibility (and skill) to judge conditions and situations such that the equipment is operated within safe margins at all times. It's very much possible to drive a fully loaded truck from NY to LA without damaging the truck. It's also very much possible to floor the truck in 1st gear on I78 just west of NYC and damage the engine 1h into the ride.

It's all skills, baby, it's all skills. :-)
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Wed 02 Oct 2019, 18:00:16

Tesla stock tumbles after fall in car deliveries...

tesla-stock-tumbles-after-disappointing-q3-deliveries

I wonder if Tesla counts all the cars that burned up in the two car-carrier truck fires along the side of the freeway in Nevada as deliveries or not? Those cars did go out the door so maybe they can be counted.......???

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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Wed 02 Oct 2019, 19:36:25

I have to admit that I have stopped watching every move with Tesla. I thought they were near death when all of its executive started fleeing and its stock tanked but they seem to be able to limp onward like a zombie.

I think the more telling bellwether for Tesla is the rollout of competitors. Hyundai/Kia can't/won't sell enough to make a dent, but VW for one definitely will. The ID.3 in particular is now starting up manufacturing. Also in Europe only, the new Renault Zoe with over 200 mile range has unprecedented bang for the buck. The competition is going to just keep accumulating relentlessly.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby StarvingLion » Fri 04 Oct 2019, 12:26:22

The competition is going to just keep accumulating relentlessly.


What competition? They're all rebranded chicom EV's.

I guess the competition is to see who goes bankrupt first: VW or Renault.

VW shares have been dropping like a rock in the past 5 days.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby tita » Sat 05 Oct 2019, 09:04:53

asg70 wrote:I have to admit that I have stopped watching every move with Tesla. I thought they were near death when all of its executive started fleeing and its stock tanked but they seem to be able to limp onward like a zombie.


There was quite a slowdown this year, but Tesla managed to keep sales numbers up, introducing gradually cheaper variants and lowering prices of the more expensive variants. Anyway, Model S/X sales plunged while Model 3 sales increased. Also, Tesla cut costs wherever they could.

Each quarter seems like a challenge. Now, Tesla must reach 106k deliveries in Q4 to reach lower guidance. So far, Tesla lost $1.1 billions in the first two quarters and is expected to show a loss in Q3.

The major things this year was the fundraising of over $2 billions and the financing of the Shanghai Factory by Chinese lendors.

As long as investors throw money, there is no reason for Tesla to fail.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Sat 05 Oct 2019, 12:56:06

tita wrote:
asg70 wrote:I have to admit that I have stopped watching every move with Tesla. I thought they were near death when all of its executive started fleeing and its stock tanked but they seem to be able to limp onward like a zombie.


There was quite a slowdown this year, but Tesla managed to keep sales numbers up, introducing gradually cheaper variants and lowering prices of the more expensive variants. Anyway, Model S/X sales plunged while Model 3 sales increased. Also, Tesla cut costs wherever they could.

Each quarter seems like a challenge. Now, Tesla must reach 106k deliveries in Q4 to reach lower guidance. So far, Tesla lost $1.1 billions in the first two quarters and is expected to show a loss in Q3.

The major things this year was the fundraising of over $2 billions and the financing of the Shanghai Factory by Chinese lendors.

As long as investors throw money, there is no reason for Tesla to fail.

From my analysis and watching on places like Seeking Alpha, that's all absolutely right.

The real question is (IMO), "In the face of all the financial issues like all the debt and ongoing interest expense, and in the face of the growing competition, is there any realistic path to sustained meaningful profitability for Tesla in a reasonable timeframe?'

Because if there's not, then it's just more debt, more interest expense, more capital raises, and at some point, even Tesla fanbois aren't going to want to keep throwing money at the cash burning furnace.

One issue I can't ignore is that in order to CLAIM positive cash flow, Tesla has taken to paring CAPEX to the bone. Well, that works on the accounting statements, but in a company relying on high growth, innovation, and the introduction of lots of new products (which take a lot of research and capital), how realistic is that?

One thing the new competition arriving in '20 and '21 will almost certainly do is continue to drive ASP (average selling prices), and thus gross margins lower. That seems to apparently eat up any cost savings that the bulls are counting on as the means to profitability, at least thus far. Oh, and it won't help the growth story any, which is already radically slowing.

Of course, there's the Shanghai plant, which will likely produce 100,000+ cars in 2020, and there's the Model Y, both of which bulls tout as the next "promised land" for Tesla.

We'll see I guess. I think the Shanghai plant will help with margins. Far less sure about quality. But I think the Model Y will just heavily cannibalize the Model 3 (it's a sedan, not an SUV).

So it's an interesting show to watch. I enjoy my popcorn. My bets, re the success of the EV industry overall are with the competition, their experience, quality, service, know-how, reputation, etc. vs. Tesla's clown-car antics, but that's just me.

However, I do NOT agree with the shorts who keep claiming Tesla is about to go bankrupt short term. Even if they keep losing lots of money, they could potentially keep the show going for quite a few years with fundraising. And while I'm not buying the bull arguments of exponential growth and profits forever, Shanghai COULD get them near parity re profits over time -- which buys them time.

Oh, and the other wild card, IMO, is the regulators and all Tesla's quality and safety problems and accounting issues (think solar roofs, etc) might well start hitting a lot harder re lawsuits, recalls, etc. It would be ironic for the bulls if Tesla would reach operational profitability, but keep piling up debt by dealing with the fallout of all of THAT.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 05:21:35

I guess this is good news for the beleaguered company, if they can reach the numbers hoped for.

BBC wrote:Tesla has been added to the Chinese government's list of approved car manufacturers according to a list published by the ministry of industry and information technology.

The electric carmaker intends to produce at least 1,000 Model 3s a week from its Shanghai factory by the end of this year.


[The quote was from the "Live Business report" so any link might be old by the time you read this]
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 17 Oct 2019, 14:41:01

EdwinSm wrote:I guess this is good news for the beleaguered company, if they can reach the numbers hoped for.

BBC wrote:Tesla has been added to the Chinese government's list of approved car manufacturers according to a list published by the ministry of industry and information technology.

The electric carmaker intends to produce at least 1,000 Model 3s a week from its Shanghai factory by the end of this year.


[The quote was from the "Live Business report" so any link might be old by the time you read this]

This isn't really new news for those who have been watching Tesla. It's an expected event confirmed. Else, Tesla wouldn't have agreed to build the Tesla factory in the first place. If anything, this is confirmation that the plant is actually more or less complete.

What will be interesting to see is how quickly meaningful production actually gets ramped up there, given Tesla's extremely slow and sketchy history with ramping up new production, especially vs. Musk's projections.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Fri 18 Oct 2019, 10:44:54

I think the competition right now is equivalent to nipping at Tesla's heels. It's going to take a while for the competition to reach critical mass, with VW group being the biggest contender.

Volvo has a new XC40 EV coming out as well which has the overall guts of Polestar 2. I don't know the dimensions of it but it doesn't look a hell of a lot bigger than the Kona but it takes 78kwh to achieve 200+ mile range. Poor efficiency, but it has twice the HP and a frunk, faster DC charging, google onboard and ota updates. Overall it looks like a competent vehicle but all the offerings at present have their pros and cons. I do think Hyundai and Kia did a great job achieving the efficiency they did on the Kona and Niro despite their conventional shape. This XC40 and Audi eTron are the equivalent of gas-guzzlers in comparison.

BOLD PREDICTIONS
-Billions are on the verge of starvation as the lockdown continues. (yoshua, 5/20/20)

HALL OF SHAME:
-Short welched on a bet and should be shunned.
-Frequent-flyers should not cry crocodile-tears over climate-change.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Fri 18 Oct 2019, 15:31:52

asg70 wrote:I think the competition right now is equivalent to nipping at Tesla's heels. It's going to take a while for the competition to reach critical mass, with VW group being the biggest contender.

Volvo has a new XC40 EV coming out as well which has the overall guts of Polestar 2. I don't know the dimensions of it but it doesn't look a hell of a lot bigger than the Kona but it takes 78kwh to achieve 200+ mile range. Poor efficiency, but it has twice the HP and a frunk, faster DC charging, google onboard and ota updates. Overall it looks like a competent vehicle but all the offerings at present have their pros and cons. I do think Hyundai and Kia did a great job achieving the efficiency they did on the Kona and Niro despite their conventional shape. This XC40 and Audi eTron are the equivalent of gas-guzzlers in comparison.

Just like with ICE's and HEV's, there are a variety of trade-offs between things like efficiency and size and comfort and amenities and cost. Markets are pretty good at sorting that out. Government is pretty good at coming up with standards via input from various sources, and then reporting on efficiency, relative to that standard.

To me, the more competent competition the better. Consumers having choices will FORCE the EV industry to improve its offerings and keep profits "reasonable".

I still think most consumers are going to care far more about things like quality and service than minor differences in efficiency, especially when the fuel is relatively cheap. It will take some time, but again, the market will certainly tell us.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby EdwinSm » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 00:55:25

Tesla shares surge after unexpected* profit
A lot of that is down to cost cutting. Although Tesla has not managed to make an annual profit yet, this is the third quarter (last two in 2018) when it has turned a quarterly profit.

Maybe it will live to fight on a bit more. But it is certainly quieter, news wise, now that Musk has had to reign in his comments...

Tesla shares have surged to their highest levels since February, after it told investors that manufacturing at its Chinese factory and plans for its next model were ahead of schedule.

The firm also reported an unexpected profit of $143m (£110.7m) for the three months to 30 September.

That beat forecasts, but was down more than 50% from a year earlier.

Shares in the electric carmaker jumped by more than 17% in after-hours trade to about $300 apiece.

Tesla has struggled with years of losses, fuelling investor doubts and casting a shadow over the shares in recent years.

The firm has yet to turn an annual profit, although it recorded positive results in the final two quarters of 2018.
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-50159963

* Since professional watchers keep getting it wrong, I don't worry about some of my guesses going wrong either :P
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby tita » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 03:55:36

Impressive results, considered that revenue was lower sequentially from Q2.

The question is, what were these costs reduction exactly? It's quite astonishing to have such improvement suddenly.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 10:43:44

I wouldn’t be surprised to see TESLA issue more stock, now that they have reported a good quarter.

Thats been their pattern for the last several years. The company loses huge amounts of money quarter after quarter until their cash reserves run low ——— then they report a sudden huge shift to the upside ——- then they issue billions in new stock ———- then when the new issue is sold out they go back to losing money and teetering towards disaster again

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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 16:47:07

Tesla appears to have engineered a profitable quarter with accounting tricks and delaying capex. Meanwhile it's fundamentals are detertiorating: Falling top and bottom lines, growing debt, and falling y/y margins with it's largest markets in the US and China cutting subsidies. I don't see how they are going to keep capex low going forward with so much on the board: Shanghai factory, model Y, semi truck production, European factory, etc. My guess is we will see first half of 2020 showing more red ink, just like this year. Perhaps with a surge in sales in Q4 this year to take advantage of the last gasp of US tax subsidies before they expire permanently on Jan 1, 2020.

* On Oct. 23, Tesla reported a surprise profit for the third quarter of 2019.

* The profit was largely attributed to efficiency gains and cost reductions, but the scale of the sequential change looks improbable.

* A deeper dive into the financials shows that the profit came thanks to a mix of deferred revenue recognition, elevated regulatory credit sales, throttled-back capex, and stretched payables.

* Tesla showed year-over-year declines to auto margins, revenues, and net income; that is not a healthy trend for a company priced for growth.

* It appears that Tesla pulled out all the stops to engineer a profitable quarter, but the underlying problems facing the business remain; sustainable profitability remains very much in doubt.

On the surface, it appears that Tesla bulls have much to crow about. Virtually no one expected a profit, after all. However, upon a closer inspection of the financial results reported in Tesla's Q3 update letter, it is clear that the profit was largely ephemeral. Indeed, Tesla appears to be far from "financially self-sustaining", despite CEO Elon Musk's latest boasts.

However, the rosy profit picture starts to wilt almost immediately upon deeper inspection. Consider the top line: Tesla brought in $6.3 billion in revenue, which was a sequential decline from Q2, in addition to falling below analysts' expectations. But, if the top line did not grow, how did Tesla make a profit?

Diving Deeper
by stretching payables and expanding accrued liabilities, Tesla was able to keep more than $200 million in negative cash flow from trickling into its other financial statements. Netting out just this maneuver would see Tesla's GAAP positive income turn into a loss. Moreover, virtually all of Tesla's expanded cash balance can be accounted for by its growing debt.

Coming Up for Air
At this point, it is abundantly clear that Tesla has manufactured another "miracle quarter" in much the same fashion that it did in Q3 and Q4 of 2018. Stretching payables, slashing capex, adjusting depreciation, recognizing deferred revenue, and cashing in piles of regulator credits can help create the appearance of profitability. However, they are not sustainable maneuvers. Tesla has suffered a significant year-over-year decline on both top and bottom lines.

That is the real crux of the challenge facing Tesla. Though the company has managed to engineer another profit thanks to a number of accounting gimmicks and one-off maneuvers, it could not come anywhere near its performance of the same period last year. That is a very bad sign for a company with a market capitalization of about $50 billion.

Investor's Eye View
The market is not valuing Tesla as an automaker with wafer-thin margins and occasional profitability; it is valuing Tesla on the basis of massive top line and bottom line growth over the next few years. That Q3 profit does not look too great when viewed in this light.

Investors hoping for Tesla to grow into its already-eye-watering valuation must ask themselves how it can achieve its promised growth goals in light of year-over-year declines to top and bottom lines, sequential decline in revenues, and the visible absence of any meaningful growth capex.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 24 Oct 2019, 16:49:45

Plantagenet wrote:I wouldn’t be surprised to see TESLA issue more stock, now that they have reported a good quarter.

Thats been their pattern for the last several years. The company loses huge amounts of money quarter after quarter until their cash reserves run low ——— then they report a sudden huge shift to the upside ——- then they issue billions in new stock ———- then when the new issue is sold out they go back to losing money and teetering towards disaster again

Cheers

Yeah. People won't be able to gauge the quality of the earnings until the financials come out in a couple/few weeks. Many are suspicious that the real change is true cost cutting vs. playing games with accounts payable, taking a lot more tax credits, taking revenue from things like the (laughable) "smart" summon, etc.

I've never bought the short story about fast bankruptcy OR the bull story about financial nirvana and huge stock prices real soon now. If they can avoid consistent large annual losses, it certainly buys them TIME. Then the question shifts to how they measure up to all the competition coming on-stream in the BEV space in 2020 and beyond.

For me, the stock is just too damn dangerous (volatile) and way too short of transparency, to be worth investing in. Specuation yes -- investing no. Just IMO.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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