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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Discussions of conventional and alternative energy production technologies.

Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 19 May 2019, 09:15:23

Nobody actually knows how to consistently make cars at a profit. In case you have forgotten recent events, Chrysler, Ford, and GM were all bailed out by the US Government.

Nor is the real problem, which is a lack of demand for EVs, anything that can be corrected by either vehicle design or manufacturing expertise. Musk can produce cars fast enough to keep up with actual sales and his cars define the state of the art.

For any EV to succeed, the customers must believe that there is a flaw in ICE vehicles. The flaw is of course that we are running out of petroleum, which relatively few understand or care about.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Sun 19 May 2019, 09:59:20

KaiserJeep wrote:Nobody actually knows how to consistently make cars at a profit. In case you have forgotten recent events, Chrysler, Ford, and GM were all bailed out by the US Government.


Ford never went bankrupt.

KaiserJeep wrote:For any EV to succeed, the customers must believe that there is a flaw in ICE vehicles. The flaw is of course that we are running out of petroleum, which relatively few understand or care about.


And global warming, which also few understand or care about.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 May 2019, 13:32:32

KaiserJeep wrote:Nobody actually knows how to consistently make cars at a profit. In case you have forgotten recent events, Chrysler, Ford, and GM were all bailed out by the US Government.


Ford was not bailed out. GM paid back all that it had borrowed. Chrysler also paid off its bailout as well.

This demonstrates what I said, that these folks who know how to make money making cars (which apparently they can do well enough to even buy themselves back out of the bailout) are the ones most likely to end up absorbing Tesla. True, they aren't always profitable, but they've been doing what they do longer than any of us has been alive, which is stable enough for most folks, particularly when compared to Tesla. Tesla is doing something completely different. They have the potential to go belly up, or put such a hiccup in the old car building business model that things will follow a path similar to what Tony Seba laid out 2 years ago.

KaiserJeep wrote:Nor is the real problem, which is a lack of demand for EVs, anything that can be corrected by either vehicle design or manufacturing expertise. Musk can produce cars fast enough to keep up with actual sales and his cars define the state of the art.


I agree. The problem not being keeping up with demand, but making money at what that demand for his product might be. He has been operating under the idea that near infinite expansion is available to him for some period of time. Always true during the ramp up phase in the S-curve, not true upon market saturation. And his issues aren't happening in a vacuum.

KaiserJeep wrote:For any EV to succeed, the customers must believe that there is a flaw in ICE vehicles.


Not true. For an EV to succeed, you need someone to drive one and have an interest in what it offers. Blinding acceleration is what caught my attention. My gasoline bill vanishing was quite a nice side benefit. And there is an obvious flaw to an ICE when it comes to long term use...something like 2000+ moving parts compared to the 20+ of an EV. As the engineering maxim goes, it isn't a problem until you have a solution. So those 2000 moving parts weren't a problem. Until the solution arrived.

KaisarJeep wrote:The flaw is of course that we are running out of petroleum, which relatively few understand or care about.


Well, this idea has been around for quite a long time. I have no ability to verify your statement with the information available to me, even putting aside the running out aspect as opposed to just a peak. You are correct that relatively few understand, and this includes about every peak oiler you can mention.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Sun 19 May 2019, 14:48:12

Elon Musk just said Tesla will run out of money in 10 months unless it dramatically cuts its spending

tesla-to-run-out-of-money-in-10-months-unless-it-curbs-spending

This announcement seems odd to me because (1) Tesla just sold another 2.3 BILLION dollars of debt on the market, so it should be flush with cash just now...and (2) Musk doesn't say anything about Tesla selling more cars as a way not to run out of money.

Sounds like Musk himself can't envision selling enough additional Teslas to help out with the cash flow problem. Musk just let slip that Tesla ain't going to be selling enough cars to stay out of bankruptcy, so the only lever he's got left to pull is cutting costs.

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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Sun 19 May 2019, 15:18:07

Plantagenet wrote:Sounds like Musk himself can't envision selling enough additional Teslas to help out with the cash flow problem. Musk just let slip that Tesla ain't going to be selling enough cars to stay out of bankruptcy, so the only lever he's got left to pull is cutting costs.

Cheers!


Excellent. When Ford or GM or VW buy it up, they'll probably get the company for a fraction of the market value now, brand and market the products appropriately, perhaps as a premium top of the line brand within their business model, and regular folks who want them can still get them.

The wife will be happy with this scenario as long as she can still get hers in a few years.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby KaiserJeep » Sun 19 May 2019, 21:30:53

While it is true that Ford Motor Company itself did not go bankrupt, they did far worse. The FoMoCo president went to see newly-elected POTUS Reagan and begged him not to recall 25,000,000 Ford vehicles with faulty transmissions. Reagan responded by removing the DOT/NTSA power to issue safety recalls. The number of fatalities increased from the 200 that caused the recall to over 1400. This was during the same time that Ford Pinto vehicles were bursting into flames in rear end collisions,which was BEFORE the Chrysler bailout and the GM bailout.

The actual government bailout funds Ford received were $9B for the credit arm of FoMoCo, and $5.9B earmarked for EV development. The $9B has not been paid back, and the $5.9B was spent without Ford releasing an EV model (that happened years later).
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Mon 20 May 2019, 16:55:44

KaiserJeep wrote:This was during the same time that Ford Pinto vehicles were bursting into flames


At some point reaching into ancient history doesn't really make the case that the auto industry in general eats you alive. I mean, Ford is what, 100+ years old? It's gonna have a rough patch here or there. Its track record is pretty good all things considered. The majors are ultimately success stories. It would be better to point to all the defunct brands out there instead, or brands that exist only because they got swallowed up or merged with others.

Tesla on the other hand is a veritable babe in the woods but because it has followed a dot com strategy of spending like it's no tomorrow it has to show a ROI fast otherwise it will drown in its balance sheets. It could have settled into luxury boutique status with the S and X. It bet the farm on the Model 3 and it's not looking good right now.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Plantagenet » Tue 21 May 2019, 17:00:37

TESLA could go as low as $10/share says major Wall Street Bank

morgan-stanley-tesla-shares-could-drop-to-10-in-worst-case-scenario

Elon got stoned and misjudged the market for EVs.

Image
This is....snort.....some goooooooooood shit.......cough........just like...........cough..........the model 3........is for.......losers..........hahahahaha!
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby kublikhan » Tue 21 May 2019, 18:48:29

Been reading some comments in the Tesla forum. Guys who drank the kool aid hardcore and splurged into the stock margin style. Now that the stock is tanking there are some unpleasant margin calls and unhappy investors.

UncaNed wrote:
aubreymcfato wrote:[I might just add that there probably is a large chunk of TSLA investors, like myself, that are not quite able to adjust our portfolio in an efficient manner (accounting for taxes and whatnot). Psychologically, "buy and hold" is nice because it's a very simple strategy. I just buy few shares when I can, when the price is low enough and I have spare money. No margin, of course.

I'd love to be a more rational and efficient investor, but with Tesla it's very difficult to sell high: FOMO is powerful and you always think it will skyrocket... I suffer that feeling much more than I suffer these dips (I'm down 11%, so not very much). Also, "groupthink" in our beloved forum just amplify these feelings, in both directions.]
It wasn't hard to sell high last December, was it? Merely half a year ago? Compare these opportunities to a 2% CD for example. Now, I'm not saying my stock investing skills have earned me greater than 2% over my investing career, but I'm just saying the opportunity WAS there for any of us if we were smart enough.
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rdalcanto wrote:Why would we sell last December when we were told Q1 might be profitable and Tesla would be profitable every quarter after that?

If we were told they were going to have a major delivery problems and a big loss in Q1, and probably a loss in Q2, you would have a point.... Now I know there might be a loss in Q2, but I'm trapped with margin calls and more than a 7 figure paper loss because I believed Elon, so I'm completely screwed and have to hope for a recovery to at least 320 the next few months.
I’m in the exact same boat actually, 6 figures loss still but very close to 7. Margin call looming. Now, this is gonna bite me, but Tesla also! Very likely that I’m gonna cancel my MX P100DL order, because of the impact of Elon telegraphing Wall street the 10 months till bankruptcy.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Tue 21 May 2019, 19:38:09

Tesla had enjoyed a halo around its public image for the longest time but too many negative stories have come out over too long a time period, from "Kia of the 90s" build quality to autopilot fatalities to production hell to delivery hell to customer service hell to maintenance hell to SEC investigations to pedo-guy lawsuits to wild product pricing gyrations.

And at the end of the day the cars still have quality issues. Bjorn's Tesla Model 3 came back from a bumper repair with a panel-gap, for instance. I'm also seeing recent pictures of ill-fitted window moldings. They are simply incapable of fixing those quality issues. Rear windshields keep splitting down the middle. Touchscreens fail, etc... Consumer Reports takes away the recommended buy...

Add in there a palpable existential threat that the car you buy might be orphaned by a company that goes bankrupt and I have to imagine it does nothing to inspire new sales, especially as the tax credits go up in smoke.

I don't see how any unbiased observer could portray the situation as anything other than a cluster-F.

Also in the news was that the revelation that Apple floated a buyout offer back in 2013. Musk should have taken it, but he would have had to leave Tesla in the process.

I would really like to see Tesla's assets pass on to a more competent company.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 22 May 2019, 01:43:43

KaiserJeep wrote:Nobody actually knows how to consistently make cars at a profit.


While car companies tend not to be profitable during recessions, overall, the quality car companies tend to be consistently quite profitable overall.

For example, Toyota, my favorite car company has been profitable every quarter from Q3 2009 on, and eyeballing it, making about $3 billion a quarter on average, which is a hell of a lot of money.

So during the 2008-9 recession, the worst recession since the great depression, they lost nearly $10 billion over three quarters, which sounds just awful until you consider that over the nearly 40 quarters since then they've made roughly $100+ billion.

For a highly cyclical industry, I'd call that mighty consistent profits.

When I look at Honda, I see a similar picture, except that as a smaller company, the numbers are only about a third as big.

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... net-income

https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/char ... net-income
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 22 May 2019, 02:20:03

AdamB wrote:[Blinding acceleration is what caught my attention.


While BEV's are faster than ICE's for 0-60 times, given the full instant torque, it's not magic. If you want a "blinding" acceleration from a BEV, you still have to pay a (IMO) "blinding" price. (I looked into this in 2016 when the Tesla Model S became popular and people were raving about its performance, out of curiosity. Didn't buy a fast car, but learned a bit about their performance and pricing).

As fun as 3ish second 0-60 sounds, you're talking in the $100,000 ballpark for a Tesla Model S that will do that -- just as you're talking in the same ballpark for a Porsche which will do that.

While a late model Mustang GT, Dodge Charger Hellcat, or the new 2020 Toyota Supra (or the BMW Z4 variant) which do 4-ish second 0-60 sprints aren't as eye-wateringly expensive, then you get into practicality or reliability downsides. (The Supra and Z4 are unknown re reliability, but given the BMW parts / build, I do NOT expect them to be Toyota quality or durability). American muscle cars -- fun, but NOT particularly reliable, generally -- maybe partially by how hard their owners tend to push them.

If you want fast AND reliable/capable -- you're talking big bucks.

...

I guess it depends on what is important. The vast majority of places, it's not like you can really push such cars more than a few seconds here and there unless you want to risk serious sanctions, or dangerous accidents. Unless you want to TRACK the car (which is expensive and time consuming unless you live near a track), I have a lot better ways to spend an extra $20K to $80K or more, IMO. And maintenance isn't cheap on such cars either -- just the brake parts can be quite expensive.

Oh, and it's not like you NEED anything close to that power. I could merge just fine onto interstates with my 2015 Corolla, with its sluggish 0-60 time of around 9.5 seconds, since they optimized the 30-50 time for passing. And my current 8ish second time for my 4 cylinder Camry is more than adequate for merging, passing, etc. So I don't need a 6 second 0-60 car, much less a 3 or 4 second one. That's for sure.

And I don't need tickets, high insurance rates, or poor gas mileage.

Now, if EV's improve and within 5 years, $30Kish BEV's provide sub 5 second 0-60 times routinely, that's a nice bonus, fun wise.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 22 May 2019, 08:14:50

asg70 wrote:And at the end of the day the cars still have quality issues. Bjorn's Tesla Model 3 came back from a bumper repair with a panel-gap, for instance. I'm also seeing recent pictures of ill-fitted window moldings. They are simply incapable of fixing those quality issues. Rear windshields keep splitting down the middle. Touchscreens fail, etc... Consumer Reports takes away the recommended buy...


At the end of the day, the big boys who know how to make money on making cars will be the last ones standing. Selling both ICE powered machines to those who want them, and high and low end EVs for those who want to roast Corvettes out of redlights across America jsut because they can.

Tesla's will be around in one form or fashion I imagine when the wife and I finally go to get our next and possibly last car, they just might be sold by Cadillac or even Tesla (wholly owned subsidiary of General Motors or Volkswagen).

asg70 wrote:I would really like to see Tesla's assets pass on to a more competent company.


Either Tesla will make it on its own, or you wish will come true. In either case, odds are I'll be able to get one for the wife when I want to in a few years, rather than getting caught up in the hype now.
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Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby StarvingLion » Wed 22 May 2019, 11:36:47

This scam has now dropped below $200. Last 6 months: $375 to $194. That idiot Dennis Coyne who said 6 months ago that TSLA can never go down must be about ready to do an Aubrey McClendon. baha has disappeared after realizing that he paid 42K for a car from a company that went broke right after he bought it.

And Father KaiserJeep is screaming at the children.

No, putting Solar-On-Roof isn't going to cut it. And Wind mills are not an actual local energy source. There is nothing to fund EV's.

You EV'ers are The Band Playing on The Titanic. You are going down with the Oil Ship to the bottom of the sea.

You all are going to die very very soon.
You're screwed. Admit it.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 22 May 2019, 13:25:05

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
AdamB wrote:[Blinding acceleration is what caught my attention.


While BEV's are faster than ICE's for 0-60 times, given the full instant torque, it's not magic. If you want a "blinding" acceleration from a BEV, you still have to pay a (IMO) "blinding" price. (I looked into this in 2016 when the Tesla Model S became popular and people were raving about its performance, out of curiosity. Didn't buy a fast car, but learned a bit about their performance and pricing).


I learned from 186mph motorcycles capable of running sub-10 second quarter mile times a decade or two ago now that while that kind of capability is wildly entertaining, it tends to only be useful on a racetrack or drag strip.

The beauty of a BEV is that most of its "blinding" part is all in city usable, because it isn't as much about top speed or quarter mile times as getting out of a stop light, getting around someone from a rolling start of 30 mph, townie type stuff. Great fun.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:As fun as 3ish second 0-60 sounds, you're talking in the $100,000 ballpark for a Tesla Model S that will do that -- just as you're talking in the same ballpark for a Porsche which will do that.


Ah, I'm happy with a 0-60 5 second burst straight from a stop light, if only because it feels so much faster than what my run of the mill EV and other cars can do.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:If you want fast AND reliable/capable -- you're talking big bucks.


Fast is different than quick. The wife basically rotated from wanting one of the newer Vettes to a Model 3 in part just because of the whiz bang zippity do da feeling of the thing.

Outcast_Searcher wrote:Oh, and it's not like you NEED anything close to that power. I could merge just fine onto interstates with my 2015 Corolla, with its sluggish 0-60 time of around 9.5 seconds, since they optimized the 30-50 time for passing. And my current 8ish second time for my 4 cylinder Camry is more than adequate for merging, passing, etc. So I don't need a 6 second 0-60 car, much less a 3 or 4 second one. That's for sure.

And I don't need tickets, high insurance rates, or poor gas mileage.

Now, if EV's improve and within 5 years, $30Kish BEV's provide sub 5 second 0-60 times routinely, that's a nice bonus, fun wise.


Cars are for cagers anyway, which my wife will happily admit she is. Until Tesla builds something that can replace a modern literbike at the track, I'll have only a middling interest in the cages. But I will admit that when rolling out of a stoplight nowadays I do have to be careful who sits beside me. Once upon a time it wouldn't have mattered, but there are enough Model S's around the neighborhood now that you never know when one will try and take you by surprise!
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Wed 22 May 2019, 21:57:32

AdamB wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:If you want fast AND reliable/capable -- you're talking big bucks.


Fast is different than quick.

Oops. You're absolutely right, and I knew that. I meant to say quick.

I DIDN'T know that until a few years ago when I looked at performance car stats, and I reverted to the wrong word in my comment. My bad.
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby asg70 » Thu 23 May 2019, 08:02:04

It's a luxury to have a fast vs. quick debate considering that peak oil doom was supposed to be about Mad Max and the end of suburbia. Just being able to do the usual daily commuter run without gasoline is a game-changer. Getting ahead of cars at a stoplight or passing on the freeway is a nice-to-have but not a requirement for BAU.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 23 May 2019, 08:59:06

Outcast_Searcher wrote:
AdamB wrote:
Outcast_Searcher wrote:If you want fast AND reliable/capable -- you're talking big bucks.


Fast is different than quick.

Oops. You're absolutely right, and I knew that. I meant to say quick.

I DIDN'T know that until a few years ago when I looked at performance car stats, and I reverted to the wrong word in my comment. My bad.


No problem. But that distinction is quite important when we discuss EVs and ICE powered machines. There is an old motorcycle saying that to a lesser extent probably applies to car, although it isn't as noticeable. "Manufacturers sell horsepower, but we ride torque." My boy is currently learning this lesson and doesn't even know it, having dropped 10HP and gained 30 ft/lbs of torque between a lightweight, high powered sportbike and a ssport touring machine twice the displacement, weighing 100# more, but having like 2.5X the torque. He thinks he is on the fastest things on wheels because of it, and I don't have the heart to tell him he is really on a slower machine, it just FEELS quicker because regardless of RPMs, you crack the throttle and the thing goes like a freight train. Redline on the big bike is below where the midrange started on the sportbike. He feels like he is on a faster machine (and in quite a few riding situations he is) and that is all that matters.

EVs are sort of like this. Max torque at 0 RPMs, causes me problems when driving on a snowy/slick road. But around town, crazy quick between 0 and 80 is how they come across feeling, even if that quick isn't matched by a corresponding, ICE type top end. Who needs it during in town driving? So...entertaining to the maximum, and I don't need roll bars or a drag strip to prove it.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby Outcast_Searcher » Thu 23 May 2019, 12:38:41

asg70 wrote:It's a luxury to have a fast vs. quick debate considering that peak oil doom was supposed to be about Mad Max and the end of suburbia. Just being able to do the usual daily commuter run without gasoline is a game-changer. Getting ahead of cars at a stoplight or passing on the freeway is a nice-to-have but not a requirement for BAU.

Agreed. Of course, the non-doomers, willing to look at real world data would tend to agree that in the first world, it's pretty much the opposite of Mad Max, in terms of choices, including luxuries, for a large proportion of the population.

And clearly, having multiple viable choices is fantastic for the consumer, whether those choices include "luxury", or just better fitting their situation in terms of budget, practicality, longevity, etc.

And I'm NOT saying it's all roses. I see that at 60, my medical insurance is increasing a whopping $300 per month, or well over 30%, this year. How's that for inflation -- I suspect a storm-drain effect is hitting my grandfathered plan. Looks like I'll need to look at an ACA plan this fall (not being reasonably priced isn't a qualifying event to change now -- typical government nonsense) -- and then things like poor ACA plan coverage networks, etc. come to the fore. I can afford it and it's mainly an annoyance for now, but for the average person, things like medical care, college, and often housing -- can be an absolute disaster to even get what's needed, much less "luxury".
Given the track record of the perma-doomer blogs, I wouldn't bet a fast crash doomer's money on their predictions.
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Re: Re: THE Tesla Thread Pt. 2 (merged)

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 23 May 2019, 15:46:00

asg70 wrote:It's a luxury to have a fast vs. quick debate considering that peak oil doom was supposed to be about Mad Max and the end of suburbia.


Yeah, but that was back in the old days when peak oilers hadn't found out yet how oil-ignorant they were.

Nowadays they are quite quiet on the topic. Biding their time until the next apparent scarcity to begin singing in the choir and quoting the usual stuff from the peaker bible.

asg70 wrote: Just being able to do the usual daily commuter run without gasoline is a game-changer. Getting ahead of cars at a stoplight or passing on the freeway is a nice-to-have but not a requirement for BAU.


Not a requirement, nope. But fun!
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