[AdamB]

Wow Shorty ran away from his wager. I guess he really couldn't come up with the dough.

The ravings of the mind of a demented child; with nothing meaningful to say, and with nothing worth listening too.

So this is the new cool way to welsh on a bet? Call the person who won the bet or anyone who watched the bet be made names in the hopes of distracting from the obvious..the loser didn't know what they were talking about?

[Outcast_Searcher]

Wow Shorty ran away from his wager. I guess he really couldn't come up with the dough.

The ravings of the mind of a demented child; with nothing meaningful to say, and with nothing worth listening too.

So this is the new cool way to welsh on a bet? Call the person who won the bet or anyone who watched the bet be made names in the hopes of distracting from the obvious..the loser didn't know what they were talking about?

That's his MO, generally. Post nonsense. Be shown wrong re the facts and credible citations by rational people.

Then he responds by acting like a 5 year old and empty name-calling.

At least he's quite consistent, re being wrong, being unable or unwilling to correct any of his obvious errors, and acting like a small frustrated child. So there's that.

[Outcast_Searcher]

.

When a species can no longer find the wherefore all to care about the future of its offspring, it is a species heading for extinction.

Except that, of course, the term he's looking for is "wherewithal". (When I google "wherefor all" and "whereforall" I get wherewithal. When I google "wherefore all", I get wherefore, which is pointed out as mostly archaic, and points out that "whys and wherefores" is occasionally used by authors -- but to mean underlying causes, NOT the means to afford.

But who needs reality? He has his self-annointed giant brain and alternate facts. For decades on end. Not correct conclusions or predictions, of course.

[Subjectivist]

Past Performance is no promise of future results. Just because prior civilizations did a slow crumble is not a guarantee that our civilization will go the same way. After all we could still end up with a global nuclear war destroying the top 1,000 population cities and that should pretty well knock us back to 1850 levels overnight.

[JuanP]

"On the edge of the cliff: We need a new way of seeing the world" by Ugo Bardi at Cassandra's Legacy"
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/20 ... ay-of.html

UB's latest article on Peak Oil, Hubbert, Limits to Growth, resource depletion, and where humanity finds itself at this moment. Worth reading.

Also recommended for the site's front page.

[Wm-scott]

Have always been a slow crash guy, but now I see a downward movement that will accelerate which could lead to a fast crash. The world has gone mad and madness is now the new sanity. How can there be a long term financial outlook when the stock market is so disconnected from reality? Huge financial supporting columns have cracked and buckled and no one seems to care or notice and the market moves up. Reminds me of Isaiah 5:20 "Woe to those who say good is bad and bad is good, who substitute darkness for light,"

Darkness falls but they call it light. I find that the scariest part, when they deny that there is a problem. Denial is hardly the best way of avoiding a crash, it is like driving on the freeway with your eyes closed. Buckle up.

[AdamB]

"On the edge of the cliff: We need a new way of seeing the world" by Ugo Bardi at Cassandra's Legacy"
https://cassandralegacy.blogspot.com/20 ... ay-of.html

UB's latest article on Peak Oil, Hubbert, Limits to Growth, resource depletion, and where humanity finds itself at this moment. Worth reading.

You can't be serious? Referencing washed up peak oilers as though, after screwing the pooch the LAST go round at doom, maybe they got better with practice this time?

How's this one for geologically and economically ignorant?

Here's a good quote from our favorite academic who should stick to chemistry, because obviously research into geology isn't his strong suite.

But what is happening exactly with peak oil and why so much fuss about it? The problem may be simply that the idea had too much success. Let's go back to 1998, when Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrere raised up again a problem that had been first noticed by Marion King Hubbert, in 1956.

Now we ask ourselves....why did he go back to 1998? When we all know that Colin Campbell made his first world peak oil claim in the late 1980's, predicting it to happen in 1990 or so? And no, Dear Doctor without access to a decent library, Hubbert claimed peak oils for the US as far back as 1936 or so...back then US peak oil was supposed to happen by 1950. And his official publication of peak oil ideas, as opposed to his general claim from 1936 or so....was in 1949.

Imagine that....yet another PhD not being bothered with the history of a thing? I wonder why they would cherry pick their way around the history of a topic?

Perhaps you can come up with better recommendations for the front page, say, a prediction by the Easter Bunny or Santa Claus? Shorty is another good one, although after his paper got laughed off the internet he might not want to expose himself to another order of magnitude drop in his perceived intellectual capability, let alone the folks he owes money to for losing bets catcalling him as a welsher.

[onlooker]

I vote fast crash because we have extending and pretending for quite some time. Witness limitless money printing. Also, as regards to the Environment I see us rapidly approaching hard limits or tipping points. If anyone scans my posting history, one csn see I am even more pessimistic about the environment than the energy/economic situation.

We are facing converging catastrophes. At some point their cumulative effect will send human society literally down the drain.

[AdamB]

We are facing converging catastrophes.

<yawn>

Since before you were born. Did you feel your life was diminished in some way, growing up in a crash that regardless of which relative term you use, has been ongoing, is ongoing, and will probably still be ongoing after you are gone?

[dirtyharry]

I think the argument of the ^ Fast vs Slow^ is not correct . A fast crash can happen but that would be a one off event say a major volcanic eruption, a meteor hitting earth ,nuclear war ,etc . In general it is a decline which in the last stages emerges as a collapse . The Soviet Union was in decline for 70 years but the collapse started in 1990 and by 1992 there was nothing ,not only the Soviet Union broke up but the whole Warsaw Pact established after WW II blew up . The problem is the timing ,even in the last days of the breakup CIA analysts were saying this is not yet the end of the Soviet Union , of course we know now that they were playing the script to funnel funds to the MIC . My POV is ,a slow decline followed by a fast crash at the last. The timing is the question .

[asg70]

The soviet union example (flogged into a life-long career by people like Orlov) isn't even really relevant anymore when you consider that it hasn't just disappeared but merely transformed into an autocratic regime that is more on the ascent courtesy of Putin. I guess you could make the same argument all the way back to Rome which got beyond its sacking by the vandals and transformed itself into the Holy Roman Empire and the split-off of Constantinople. Point being that it's mostly a psychological phenomenon to define things as having hard and definitive endings where in reality things tend to linger on.

[REAL Green]

Business-as-Usual Porn – or, We Need to Talk about Collapse
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... -collapse/
“I think we need to talk openly and calmly about the possibility of societal or civilizational collapse arising from humanity’s present predicaments. And that’s mostly what I want to pursue in this post – not so much what the likelihood or the underlying mechanisms of collapse might be, but the idea that it would be useful if, as a society, we could talk about it. Maybe that’s happening in one sense. The noises offstage from scientists, multilateral agencies, social critics and political activists about the possibility of collapse are getting louder1. Inevitably, so is the pushback from those arguing that this is so much overheated rhetoric, and everything’s just fine2. My sense is that there’s far greater empirical weight behind the former than the latter position, but it’s the latter one that seems to dominate public discourse. There’s precious little public and media attention to the rather big news that the way we live may soon be ending. Indeed, people who say such things are generally relegated from serious debate, and sometimes accused of peddling ‘collapse porn’ with their mawkish tales of impending doom3. It’s a curious phrase. Inasmuch as pornography presents people with something that they guiltily want to see, but in unrealistic and idealized ways that hide the reality of the relationships involved and erode their integrity, perhaps we should rather be talking about ‘business as usual porn’.”


There is a surreal divide between the macro and micro of the social narrative these days. Increasingly at the micro level awakened individuals are embracing a decline process as their basis of meaning. Alternatively, at the macro level the status quo continues to push a normality of growth. The latest pandemic crisis has only been a bump in the thinking with talk of different shaped recoveries. I tend to acknowledge both views but compartmentalized. The compartmentalization is based upon reality.

The reality of the awakened individual is based on honest science with a common sense view of the world. Look around and decline is everywhere. Planetary systems are disturbed from stasis from the normal human experience of the last many centuries. The web of life is in succession with extinctions and localized ecosystem failure. Overall, the global ecosystem is in decline seen with oceans, rainforest, and the high arctic.

The reality found in the global narrative of civilization is mixed with acknowledgement of various declines but with an undertone of techno optimism. There are the Green New deals for carbon issues. There is a feeling population growth will stabilize and be accompanied with sustainable development. There seems to be a collective survival and growth instinct that permeates any discussion. Collpase talk is almost always moderated or dismissed. This leaves it to awakened individuals to lead the way with strategies for mitigation and adaptation to a reality of planetary and life web declines.

REAL Green is eclectic on the subject. It embraces decline and this is both with a quick and a process decline. In a deeper look REAL Green sees an overall decline process with localized failures. This is mirrored by the global ecosystem. The awakened individual is embracing the planet for their reality. REAL Green is eclectic because it realizes the individual, though awakened, is trapped in the Anthropocene of human growth. This macro human narrative is one of growth and survival. It can be no other way or the whole basis of maintaining our species fails. Confidence is liquidity and it takes economic activity to feed people. If the dominant narrative were one of decline and collpase economic activity would crater and the Ponzi of human civilization implode.

I say Ponzi because current human narrative is of continued growth but on a finite planet. This is incongruous and represents a collective neurosis. Nonetheless REAL Green embraces this collective neurosis as reality and uses it to leave it. Growth is used to degrowth. Growth activity is maintained for survival but focused on green activity and prepping for decline. REAL Green calls this green prepping. Preppers get a bad rap but green prepping is different. It is the natural combination of sustainability and resilience with the focus on localism and degrowth. This results in increased resilience and sustainability and equates to a lower planetary footprint.

REAL Green achieves this through behavior first. The retreat is a retreat in force. It acknowledged death of things and possible early mortality. It uses this behavioral honesty to focus on a journey with a lifeboat of things and a hospice of behavior. Palliative care for those who will be lost and example setting for those who will need guidance for the difficult journey into decline. This poverty of things is made up by a spiritual windfall. Meaning in the pursuit of the truth makes up for the Spartan life of an ascetic life in the difficult world of low carbon capture. Localism and low carbon living are both harder in regards to comfort and difficult to maintain in this world of hyper capitalism. So, the collpase process becomes the lubrication from green prepping that ultimately leads the individual to a lower planetary footprint in an increased resilience and sustainability to local shocks. The individual cannot transcend collpase but they can adapt and mitigate the process and be better prepared for the event when they come as they surely will.

[REAL Green]

“Doom or denial: Is there another path?”
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... ther-path/

“The nub of the controversy is this: some folks involved in Extinction Rebellion think that Bendell is being too fatalistic, thereby discouraging his followers from taking actions that might still save civilization and global ecosystems. Bendell, in his response, accuses his critics of ignoring evidence and misrepresenting his views… My conclusion, after years of studying environmental research literature, is that some form of societal collapse is indeed highly probable this century, depending on how we define “collapse.” Quite a few environmental scientists with whom I’m acquainted agree with this assessment. With regard to climate change, the problem is not that global warming has already proceeded too far to be reined in (on that point I am agnostic: I agree with the XR authors that the science is not yet settled, and they make some good points in this regard); rather, it’s that the things we would have to do to minimize climate change would undermine industrial societies by other means. That last statement requires some substantiation. The only realistic way to minimize climate change is to stop burning fossil fuels; and, in my judgment, there is no way to do that without shrinking energy usage and therefore economic activity… So, one way or another, we must accept economic degrowth. However, we don’t know how to degrow our economy controllably, particularly in the context of a massive global debt bubble. Moreover, the structures of representative democracy which respond to the short-term concerns of the electorate, make planning for degrowth even harder… In sum, we have created a fundamentally unsustainable way of living. In recent decades, as more problems have arisen, we have learned to rely on fossil-fueled economic growth to solve them, but now growth is just making those problems worse, and we have no other plan… One way of responding is to redefine collapse. Past civilizations have collapsed, and usually the process took two or three centuries and eventually led to some sort of renaissance. We see similar cycles of buildup and release in ecosystems (resilience scientists describe this universal tendency in terms of the adaptive cycle.)… Collapse needn’t imply that nearly everybody dies at once, or that the survivors become wandering cannibals. Rather, it means our current institutions will fail to one degree or another and we will have to find alternative ways to meet basic human needs—ways that are slower, smaller in scale, and more local. Even if we can’t altogether avert the release phase of the adaptive cycle we’re in, it may be within our power to modify how release and reorganization occur. Perhaps, if we think of collapse in these terms, accepting its near-inevitability won’t be so debilitating… Can we mentally accept that the odds are stacked against us, yet still act sanely and vigorously? That’s a question that has dogged me for some time. I believe clues leading to an answer may come from a realm of psychology known as Terror Management Theory—which Bendell discusses in Deep Adaptation’s founding document, “Deep Adaptation: A Map for Navigating Climate Tragedy.”… Knowledge of death creates a psychological conflict between our self-preservation instinct and our knowledge of our own eventual demise, and we as a species have gone to great lengths to overcome that conflict. This, according to Terror Management Theory, explains a wide array of cultural beliefs and institutions that explicitly or implicitly promise immortality—including, but not limited to, religious teachings and rituals… Meanwhile, here’s a bit of advice to the XR critics of DA: go easy. Despite its questionable tendency toward worst-case fixation, DA nevertheless provides a support system within which people can undertake the inner work entailed in facing the reality of the great unraveling that is upon us. While that inner work shouldn’t become an end in itself, thereby subverting effort toward minimizing harm to ecosystems and human communities, it is nevertheless a necessary stage in moving beyond denial… warrior obligation, but to act without thought of self or attachment to outcome. Similarly, those of us with awareness of the crises ahead must understand that action will have largely unknowable consequences. We find ourselves drawn to a role simply by the fact of our awareness; however, our awareness is incomplete. Despite that limitation, it’s up to us to play our role in the defense of nature and humanity as cleanly and selflessly—and as effectively—as possible.”

[REAL Green]

The issue is primarily one of behavior and attitudes. It really is important to differentiate doom and denial. In fact, it is of the highest concern and the reason being this condition is a journey to acceptance like the Kubler Roth of grief. If the journey is one of an optimistic end this is quite different than a journey in acceptance to and end game of physical and spiritual mortality. The other issue is the definition of doom and collpase. This is a process with localized realities. Not all places or systems will necessarily collpase the same or even maybe at all. Maybe all will collpase or not. There might be the Byzantium after Rome. This is not ours to know this is the sacred.

A journey in acceptance will embrace palliative care. There will be triage of behaviors that hinder acceptance and damage the journey. It is highly important acceptance is achieved because humans are in a carbon trap but more importantly path dependent by existing structures and behavior. If triage and creative destruction is going to occur with a higher level of adapted behavior achieving more valuable mitigation than acceptance is vital. Morale is of the highest concern here. This is a journey into the unknow but with pessimistic end. We can make this an optimistic pessimism with proper morale of acceptance. Necessary sacrifices can be made when proper orientation is achieved. Trap dynamics take proper strategy or the trap becomes deeper. Good behaviors are diminished if a wrong orientation is taken.

Those who fight now thinking they can affect change are still bargaining. They are angry and they are prone to depression and isolation. This is a bad combination of the negatives of denial driven action for a positive end. The other issue is the planet and the web of life. If the journey is going to be supported then we need the assistance of the planet and the web of life. This occurs by following and emulating them in their journey of succession. There must not be a separation from the planetary way or power is lost. They are in succession and there is an ongoing extinction event. They will support the journey by showing the way. There is connectivity to a planetary process not the alternative of an engineer trying to force a change that is not possible. Fighting a current is much different than harnessing a current. The final issue is the spiritual dimension. The journey to doom accepting a collapse process is one of pain, suffering in increasing poverty. This is physical and mental and includes people and place in decline. Spiritually there can be increased satisfaction in finding meaning in this. The spiritual dimension can make up significantly the doom deficit that is a necessary outcome of this journey.

Now comes the surreal part. The journey I speak about is for the awakened. Not all humans can be awakened. Not all systems and networks can be managed for a doom journey. This points to a spiritual bifurcation. The awakened should outfit the ark and build the monasteries. Those in denial can continue to create the things needed to outfit the ark and build the monasteries. Growth is needed to outfit degrowth. The awakened must follow a tight rope of living in growth to leave it. They must embrace paradoxes and incongruous juxtapositions. They will become the seeds that will offer the wisdom that will be needed for the new world this journey of doom is sailing for. They will be the elders to advise the next generation on what needs to be done. They will have collected the goods needed. They will have sorted, organized and means tested the tools for this new world. This is why the journey is so critical. A journey of denial to a positive end will not affect the same change as the journey of doom. So, this is also a human acceptance that some can journey to doom and others can’t. There is not either or but a bee hive of activity with some being the workers. The planet choses who is who. This then is also the acceptance of those choosing denial. It is inevitable and in fact vital some choose denial. They will be the workers building things those who embrace reality will need.

This then points to two different worlds and this can only be achieved locally and in small groups. The reason for this is the cultural narrative for so many people to survive in the here and now cannot be maintained with doom. There must be a reason to slug on with sometimes vile and painful activity. There is going to inevitably be physical and spiritual inequality and some are fated to die in this process. This is a life boat situation and also needs hospice care. We can’t save all and all can’t be allowed to make the journey. There must be a situation where some chosen to harness growth and the majority trapped in the denial of doom. This is so the chosen can transport the Grail of Wisdom to the new world. This is not transcendence but instead a spiritual transformation only a few can attain. This then requires humility of the chosen that they are following the way. They are the Jedi who embrace the force. They are leading the way in the shadows. They are heroic in sacrifice and humble in the power they attain from following the way of the planet.

[mousepad]

how we define “collapse.”

I'm wondering that myself. What's the difference between 'change' and 'collapse'?

[dolanbaker]

how we define “collapse.”

I'm wondering that myself. What's the difference between 'change' and 'collapse'?

Short answer, It depends on whether the change adversely changes or enhances your way of life.
The Adoption of EV's for example will benefit everyone except the fossil fuel industry and ICE vehicle manufacturers & maintainers.
Widespread adoption of working from home will decimate the urban lunchtime sector.
Plus numerous other examples.

[JuanP]

Widespread adoption of working from home will decimate the urban lunchtime sector.

That is already happening. I have been talking about this with an urban restaurant owner for a couple of weeks. Before COVID-19 the restaurant had indoor seating, pickup, and take out, and opened from 11am to 11pm and offered brunch, lunch, and dinner menus. Their brunch and lunch hours were the busiest ones. They now added outdoor seating on the sidewalk, are building an outdoor deck in the back, and have a delivery service.

When the restaurant was forced to stop offering indoor seating for the second time a couple of weeks ago, they almost closed until September, but they had to stay open anyway for a couple of weeks to use up all the food in their cooler. I talked to the owner about their sales and which hours were busier. We did an analysis together and realized that his busiest hours were from 9pm to 11pm and brunch and lunch sales were almost nonexistent, the opposite of how it used to be.

I told him to stay open for a week until 1am to see what happened, and he agreed to try because he is very open to suggestions right now. Well, he opened from 11am until 1am for a week, and 90% of his income was from 9pm to 1am, with more than 50% of his total sales for the day being from 11pm to 1am, and less than 5% before 5pm. He now opens from 5pm to 1am, works 8 hours per day instead of 12, and has increased the restaurant's sales.

The new outdoor patio in the back may change that, but I doubt it. It will seat 25 with COVID distancing and 35 with a normal layout. He can sit 16 in 4 tables in the sidewalk, but that is not a good spot, it gets a lot of sunlight and the street has an awful lot of traffic. He would need a very big new awning there to provide shelter from the sun and rain. The back has no traffic, is bigger and more sheltered being located between two buildings, and will be protected from sun and rain all day long.

I did a Permaculture design for all the restaurant's outdoor spaces, including the West and South sidewalks, outdoor deck, garden, and parking lot. All the landscaping is edible now, mostly herbs, spices, and edible flowers. It has raised beds, ground beds, pots, planters, grow bags, and hanging baskets. This will save him several thousands of dollars per year and also looks pretty amazing, even if I say so myself.

[shortonoil]

So this is the new cool way to welsh on a bet? Call the person who won the bet or anyone who watched the bet be made names in the hopes of distracting from the obvious..the loser didn't know what they were talking about?

Who am I suppose to call 9/11? Your supposed bet was made 7 years ago, by a troll who never put up any money to back it, and would have lost anyway. You are a compulsive head case bullshitter. You continue to pursue trivia because you have nothing real worth contributing. You are a 100% loser.

[AdamB]

“Doom or denial: Is there another path?”
https://www.resilience.org/stories/2020 ... ther-path/

Better than usual from Richard "Pol Pot" Heinberg. He didn't say "peak oil" as far as I could see, continuing his continued wiggling to get away from that dead albatross. Good move, although a decade or two late. The real irony in the article however is this:

My conclusion, after years of studying environmental research literature, is that some form of societal collapse is indeed highly probable this century, depending on how we define “collapse.”

He studied peak oil for years as well. Turns out, Richard studying stuff is hardly a basis for knowing anything. What is it that daddy also said? "Don't trust an amateur violin player to do your technical analysis for you."....or something like that.

[AdamB]

So this is the new cool way to welsh on a bet?

Your supposed bet was made 7 years ago, by a troll who never put up any money to back it, and would have lost anyway.

Not according to the scorekeepers around here. Obviously, your sock puppets don't count, but you can have a few chime in to help you out if you'd like, you certainly need them because everyone else knows better.

You are a compulsive head case bullshitter.

Who knows you welshed. But perhaps more importantly, knew you were wrong years ago, and it took only seconds to explain why. But you, the author, required years and reality to demonstrate what I knew in seconds.

Sounds about right in terms of intellectual capability, right? You labor for years to get something wrong, those with experience and greater capability understand why its wrong in seconds. Proof of non-bullshitter right there.

You continue to pursue trivia because you have nothing real worth contributing. You are a 100% loser.

I've never had a single science journal article rejected in 20 years. Not one. What might your batting average be?