[theluckycountry]

Hey adam, you know those crappy little hills you're so proud of. This is Santiago in Chile, a South American bannana republic, it has REAL mountains. When I look at those photos of yours I think of Clint Eastwood's High Plains Drifter




Some of the better homes. The Spanish influence, far better than anything you have in that pine frame sheet rock town of boulder.







You've been living in a dream world Neo.

[theluckycountry]

Boulder's poxy little hills

[AdamB]

Hey adam, you know those crappy little hills you're so proud of.

Not proud of so much as LOVE having as a view out the bedroom window. And they aren't crappy, that is the description of Australian "hills".

This is Santiago in Chile, a South American bannana republic, it has REAL mountains.

There are certainly some excellent mountains in the world besides the local Rockys here in Colorado. You should have referenced Nepal and Tibet off the top though. This just shows your experience with mountains because...you have none on your island, and are ignorant in general.

Just like you pretend to know what tight tracks are like, when you know nothing about them and have never been on one, you pretend to know something about mountains, when they don't even exist on your continent.

Putz.

How is the boy doing? He survive the rigors of reading and writing, addition and subtraction, and make it out of high school? Or did he get your DNA when it comes to brainpower and you are teaching him the ways of the ignorant and uneducated?

[theluckycountry]

30 June 2023 — Our analysis confirms these results: Permian per-well productivity fell 8% last year. The drivers of the lost productivity will only get worse.

https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/the-permian-basin

I bet kub had a lot to say about that! "Temporary downturn, Boom years ahead" But the article nailed it!

Permian Basin sees continued drop in oil and gas rigs in 2025

June 27, 2025
Drilling activity’s decline has reached nine weeks, falling to levels not seen in nearly four years.
https://www.mrt.com/business/oil/articl ... 397743.php
4 years. That takes you back to the Covid total collapse.

Permian or Bust? U.S. Oil Growth Has a One-Basin Problem

Permian dominates U.S. oil growth, contributing over 6 million barrels per day and nearly half of total U.S. output, but its growth is increasingly seen as unsustainable.

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Gene ... oblem.html

A flash in the pan alright. When this (totally uneconomic oil) is finally gone then people will know the truth, Again! The world and the US especially has passed PeakOil. I didn't look into the Gas or the liquid equivalents, they don't power society like oil does. Dark days ahead.

[theluckycountry]

A year and a half ago!

January 4, 2024-- Permian basin and Eagle Ford oil recoveries have both fallen by 30% and Bakken has declined by almost 20%. Those plays accounted for two-thirds of U.S. output in 2023. That means that U.S. production will decline at some time in the relatively near-future.

But wait—isn’t the U.S. producing a record amount of oil? Yes, U.S. output increased by more than 1 million barrels per day in 2023 to 13.2 mmb/d and about 80% of that increase was from tight oil plays. How can well performance be decreasing while production is increasing?

The answer is that shale wells are producing at higher initial rates but are declining faster than in previous years. Their total recoveries are lower than just a few years ago.

https://www.artberman.com/blog/beginnin ... e-permian/

Uneconomic oil, worthless oil, that is unless you are a driller or a broker or a government tax collector. The energy return on this swill of chemicals is far to low to even maintain American society let alone build it anew. It's no surprise that the US began it's fall from grace after 1970, at the point it became a net oil importer. Oh sure there are still some beautiful homes being built there and beautiful roads to service them. But those are the abodes of the Elite, the 1%. The rest of the nation has been thrown to the dogs. As time passes and more and more of the Elite withdraw into enclaves or simply move abroad even roads connecting them to the major cities will fall into decline.

This is the iconic picture of Caracas, the capital of Venezuela. Wealthy Elites on one side and the poor on the other with something akin to a Berlin Wall separating them along the freeway.

[theluckycountry]

This is a closeup of one of the motorcycle rides up here in the Scenic Rim adam, the Cunningham highway through the gap.

https://www.scenicrim.qld.gov.au/scenic ... ATURED.jpg

It's not a aerial image either, as the following pic shows





Hundreds of km of mountains crisscrossed with smooth blacktop, and the best part of all? It never snows or gets too cold that you can't ride. Why would a motorcyclist move to a region where it snows half the year? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9EP31iYjeW4&t=689s

[AdamB]

30 June 2023 — Our analysis confirms these results: Permian per-well productivity fell 8% last year. The drivers of the lost productivity will only get worse.

https://blog.gorozen.com/blog/the-permian-basin

The productivity of all individual wells, and groups of wells, at some point in time will decline. I would post something on Darcy's Law to explain it to you, but it would require you graduated at least one or two math classes in your life...and that is unlikely.

The physics of fluid flow in porous media hasn't changed since 1856 when Darcy came up with his law. You don't know this of course, as you are....

[AdamB]

This is a closeup of one of the motorcycle rides up here in the Scenic Rim adam, the Cunningham highway through the gap.

https://www.scenicrim.qld.gov.au/scenic ... ATURED.jpg

Not bad! Not The Dragon, and certainly doesn't require much in the way of cajones as there aren't 2000' drops over the edge when squids like you screw up because you can't lean a motorcycle over to save their lives, and obviously it is closer to sea level so flatlander squids can breath while riding it.

We have a ride here in Colorado, called the 100,000 Footer. Its the 25th Anniversay this year. Been running it since I moved out here. We do roads above where you mouth breathers can survive, all in a single day.

Run along parrot....no need to try and impress when...you don't have what it takes to do so.

[theluckycountry]

Global oil production's Energy Return on Energy Invested (EROI) is declining as it becomes more expensive to extract oil from the Earth. This means that for each unit of energy invested in oil extraction, less energy is returned. This trend is particularly noticeable in unconventional oil sources like shale oil and oil sands, where EROI can be significantly lower than conventional oil

This has been the trend ever since the major fields peaked back last century but was never an issue until the 2000's. It pushed prices up and up until 2008, the all time high in oil prices, for which no explanation was given other than "Speculators". Every year now more and more of the oil produced must be diverted to the sole business of oil extraction. Which leaves less and less to actually power the economies of the world. It's a dog chasing it's tail scenario. Discussions of the amount of oil extracted are meaningless without the EROEI data included. It would be like me claiming my car has a range of 1000km without stating that I needed to fill it up once along the way. But the reality of EROEI has been effectively expunged from nearly all discussion on the subject of oil in the media.

This should come as no surprise, governments, who have known all along about the ultimate consequences of PeakOil to their economies were totally silent on the subject back in the 2000's. They couldn't respond because that would embroil them in the hard science and they would have been forced to admit it was going to be an unmitigated disaster for life as we know it in the decades to come. So behind the scenes they formulated the climate debate and the alternate energy/transport puppet show to distract the public and continued with business as usual. I can't blame them. If I was in power I'd want an easy life too. See out my tenure, collect my pension and kickback appointments and retire to a gated estate somewhere far away. Even the petro geologists who initially blew the whistle in the late 1990's only did so after they had retired and were secure. Only when they had nothing to lose by telling the truth. Unfortunately for the average man in the street the PeakOil debate was derailed and effectively hushed up, they went on about their lives as though nothing was happening, relying on government and the media to herd them in the right direction rather than thinking for themselves about the future. How many millions of people are living in cars and campers and hovels tonight simply because they thought tomorrow would be much like today? But then the rug was pulled out, "Sorry we don't need your services any longer, please clear out your desk and hand in your mobile phone."

Here is a good primer on the subject.

...extraction of 50 units of energy in oil (as in historic oil and gas fields) may require one unit of energy, for an EROEI of 50 to 1. But over time, as oil extraction requires increasing effort, oil’s EROEI might fall to 30 to 1, then 15 to 1. Declining EROI is precisely what characterizes the current state of fossil hydrocarbon extraction, as the graphic shows.

The implications are staggering. A declining EROEI reveals that extraction of energy will be increasingly expensive and eventually, cost-prohibitive. Hydrocarbons will still be in the ground, but the costs of their extraction will continue to climb. This also means that, barring the development of some new type of energy source, society will have to adapt to a much lower energy future. And it suggests that the monetary costs of extraction will erode GDP growth and eventually cap economic expansion.

In 2005, just a few years before the rising price of oil triggered the 2008 economic crisis, the U.S. Department of Energy commissioned a report from the think tank SAIC titled “Peaking of World Oil Production: Impacts, Mitigation and Risk Management.” It’s clear from interviews that the authors were shocked by the implications of soon-to-arrive global Peak Oil, which they termed “an unprecedented risk management problem.” Analyzing the supply and demand side of the oil scarcity challenge, they concluded that at least a decade, and more likely two, would be needed to prepare for Peak Oil and prevent social and economic upheaval.

The report garnered a great deal of attention at the time, as did other warnings of energy limits. But the subsequent “shale revolution” changed everything. Instead of being recognized as a last domain of exploration and recovery, the media framed shale and fracking as an energy elixir. The intervening years have not produced the preparatory planning that Hirsch warned should occur...

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2024 ... rgy-cliff/

"they concluded that at least a decade, and more likely two, would be needed to prepare for Peak Oil and prevent social and economic upheaval."
Social and economic upheaval? Look out your front door.

[AdamB]

Hirsch wrote a report that was wrong, and the people who knew it 20 years ago were banned for knowing why in real time. Good to see that not everyone fell for such nonsense, but because peak oil happened 7 years ago and we want so decent fear mongering to start back up...lets review!

https://www.resilience.org/stories/2024 ... rgy-cliff/

This isn't even a parrot thing, just recycling 20 year old nonsense and hoping stupid people will find it and help them recycle it.

Good going Lucky! You found it alright! Do they know their target audience of suckers and halfwits or what!

[theluckycountry]

Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen...
This is another thread based on false assumptions, the Permian oil matters nothing, it never did as far as useful oil to society goes. Sure it pushed the numbers up, after all the fudging "liquid equivalents" and by ignoring the massive amounts of oil used to get the slop out of the ground. All it really achieved was billions for bankers and oil executives and a poisoned landscape for the population in those areas. Like Deep water, another example of uneconomic oil, but profits for BP and a poisoned Gulf of Mexico for all the inhabitants living along it.

The real peakOil story was and always will be centered around 2007~8 conventional peak, the beginning of the end for the world's industrialized nations. The beginning of the end for all the scattered developing nations. Untold Trillions have been borrowed from the future to try and cover up that 2008 event, but to no avail. The people of Planet earth are getting poorer and poorer, more and more go hungry and go homeless as they can no longer afford all the benefits oil brought in the 20th century.

The Big Mistake made was focusing on price. Price can stay where it is now, all the way to the last recovered barrel. What matters the price if you haven't a job to pay it, or if all your money is being spent on food and shelter, staying warm, staying fed. This is the reality in many nations now, even nations with abundant oil but no actual control over that oil. Oil is in one sense free, providing it flows at a EROEI high enough to satisfy all the infrastructure players involved in it's extraction. Once your pipes are laid and your wells pumping the overheads are low, that is for conventional oil of course. And even though this conventional oil has been in stark decline since 2008 the slow collapse of the world's economies has taken the pressure off that declining total.

there are 170 million people living in Bangladesh, that's half the population of the US yet most Americans couldn't point to it on a map! It's just one of the populous nations on Earth that has seen a drastic reduction in oil use. America has seen it too of course with declining miles driven, but being the paper-shuffler in chief they have been able to borrow much further into the future than a poor nation like Bangladesh. They have borrowed 37 trillion dollars into the future and that's a lot of red ink that will never be repaid too. But that 37 trillion represents oil and cars and food and minerals taken from the rest of the world, at their expense. So what happens when the borrowing game ends? America will hit a brick wall and will become Bangladesh, Mexico and Brazil. But unfortunately without the benefit of the slow decline, so the people can adjust to the new reality. It will be like the collapse of Venezuela, hunger games almost overnight.

And the price of oil will probably still be the same, but now instead of $US 80, it will be 570 Chinese Yuan. You don't want to believe that? Fine, go on youtube and watch some Peter Zeihan videos. But remember, he makes his money telling americans how great their nation is and how it will defeat China. If he said the opposite he would be as poor as a church mouse
Just believe, and click on his videos so his revenue goes up.

[theluckycountry]

These threads are just an example of children whistling in the dark as they move deeper and deeper into a graveyard. They never advocated real solutions, or fixes, for the loss of the abundant cheap oil we enjoyed in the 20th century. They were just doses of hopium to quell the nerves, to distract for a season the reality all around us. The real world where bridges age and don't get repaired, where towns are wiped off the map by hurricanes and don't get rebuilt. where more and more people set up tents in city centers and where the cost of living gets further and further away from the wages needed to pay for them.

1950, a man with an ordinary job has a wife and 4 kids at home, in a home he's paying off while they go to college, for free. That was the era of cheap oil. Then 1970, and it's been all downhill since. It's no wonder all the posters deserted this forum. They didn't go because they stopped believing in peakOil, or because they believed the Bullshit in all the posts promising a bright star trek future and went off to live it. They left because they got sick of reading the dribble posted every day on how electric cars will save the planet from oil dependence Sick of hearing about shale oil miracles and fusion plants that were just around the corner. Sick of hearing about the alternate energy *Renewables* future when they couldn't even afford to put a set of solar panels on their roof.

No, all the dreams were just that. Dreams. And they woke up out of the dream and left in disgust. As for real solutions, real grass roots personal solutions to their own personal battle to live well in the future, these were laughed at by the forum. It was wind turbines on every high hill or nothing at all. Well I thank God I never believed in any of these dreams, these corporate solutions to my personal existence beyond the oil age. If I had I'd probably be sitting with a mortgage now, paying off my OS holidays and new EV, my home extensions and all the rest. PeakOil, bring on the next leg down, the crash of the global markets and the loss of all hope. I'm prepared for that too. let the dreamers eat cake, if they can find it.

[theluckycountry]

I predict by 2025 or 2030 the US will begin to have natural gas vehicles in the market. We've got at least 20-30 years of natural gas.

Dream on my friend, dream on.

[AdamB]

Peak Permian, Global Peak Oil will happen...

The EIA appears to have called peak Permian in this year within the STEO. The AEO is a little more optimistic and claims US peak oil more in 2026. Global peak oil happened 7 years ago.

The real peakOil story was and always will be centered around 2007~8 conventional peak.....

And which oils from this list of ALL global benchmarks might make up this mythical beast "conventional"? Oh wait! 7 year olds can order from a menu....but our the local village idiot can't even do that!

[theluckycountry]

I remember well my awakening to PeakOil, it was after reading the material on dieff.org (now long gone) back in 2004. By the time the global recession, the GFC occurred, my assets were safely outside the paper markets, that crash was simply a popcorn event. I ran two V8's back then and around the time of the crash sold both for more economical vehicles. Money wasn't an issue, I was just collapsing before the rush so to speak. Keeping one step ahead of the consequences of peak oil.

As the years passed I acquired and stockpiled items with VLSL, very long shelf lives, like quality phillips razors with triple cut, triple heads, the stuff made now is garbage. Tools and hobby supplies, then quality motorcycles, again all the modern stuff is crap in comparison to the decade of 2010. Finally I moved up country to a lovely tourist town and bought in before Covid at less than half the price the house would now sell for. Keep ahead of the curve was always my mantra, fit solar when it was cheap and paid good tariffs. Well those are gone now but they paid off the system in the 4 years they lasted so I've no complaints. Compared to 2004, everything is very expensive now. From food, to electricity, to parts, to good tools. Only fuel is still reasonably priced compared to then, only doubling in 20 years, amazing! But of course it can't rise much more can it because in 2008 at the all time conventional peak the global economy began to collapse, people couldn't afford the long drives to work, businesses couldn't afford to ship product and mines were suffering due to exorbitant diesel costs. The GFC was a given as was the Lie about it's cause. A hedge fund and an insurance company failed, sure

I retired before 60 and it was easy because my overheads were quite low. I still receive payments from "the system" and that more than covers my monthly expenditures, I put the excess into new stuff, maintenance, and leave some to pile up in the bank. Zero debt was a big key to success, not that the repayments are onerous if you know what you're doing but debt is subtle, it leads you into buying stuff you don't need, like crappy new cars and overseas holidays, pointless extension on perfectly functional homes. The amount of people who re-make their houses just because they see others doing it is phenomenal, and never would have occurred without the magic of modern mortgage debt. Then before you know it you have hundreds of grand on the books that needs to be repaid, years and years worth of repayments. You tell yourself, that's ok, I have it all worked out, but the mathematics never includes a stock market collapse or the loss of a job so it's just hopium, not a resilient plan. You could lose your home! And many do...

I have made a few errors, not costly ones, but I bought too many sport bikes when I should have been more focused on Adventure bikes. The sort of bikes that can handle rougher roads with ease because that's the future, less oil, less blacktop and higher construction costs. I'll sort that out next year, perhaps even ditch one for one of those hi-end e-bikes, the ones you can register and tool around the roads on at speed. No rush though, no pressure, and no one with a brain sells a motorcycle in Winter, you wait for Spring. As long as the major points are covered you're fine. No mortgage or other debt, home in a safe rural area near food and water supplies, and a retirement nest egg protected from Government and Market theft. Nail those down and you can relax and enjoy your autumn years.

[AdamB]

I remember well my awakening to PeakOil, it was after reading the material on dieff.org (now long gone) back in 2004.

I was referred to that one, and oilcrisis.net.

I retired before 60 and it was easy because my overheads were quite low.

And what did the boy think of your reduced lifestyle? Did he go along with it willingly, or wish there was more cash in the family system?

I have made a few errors, not costly ones, but I bought too many sport bikes when I should have been more focused on Adventure bikes.

I bought too many sport bikes as well, but did dual sports at the same time. Put time and effort into one more than the other though, yet still have one of each in the garage.

Nice personal story. Too bad it has nothing to do with peak oil. Your imaginary fear of it to some extent....but nothing about someone who doesn't know the difference between WCS or Mexican Maya.

[theluckycountry]

In 1970, total US household debt was approximately $516.4 billion
May 14, 2025 — American households carry a total of $18.203 trillion of debt
The population has increased by 50%, the debt by 3500%. Or another way of looking at it the debt in 1970 was 2.7% of current household debt. All that debt and they are still not as well off as back in the 70's.

That's what happens when your nation passes peak oil and doesn't rein in spending.

[AdamB]

As a parrot I just repeated a bunch of <yawn> parrot level repitiion of parrot level understanding...me being a parrot and not even being able to pick my favorite oils off a list.

Thank you for that fine summary of this particular contribution to...anything...Lucky.

And what did your boy think of your downsizing? Sensitive to talk about, because his aborigine mother means he isn't something a father can be proud of? Or is it because he is like you, you know it, and uneducated and slack jawed silly isn't something to admire or speak of in Australia any more than it is in the US?