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THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 08 May 2025, 18:26:34

theluckycountry wrote:US, Russia Discussing Restoring Gas Flows To Europe As Key To Grand Ukraine Deal
That'll make the feckless Europeans sit up and take notice.


Oh...you mean the owners of Australia that you cowtow to? They might be feckless, but they've kept your country in the traces toiling away because you haven't the cajones to get off your knees. Grow a pair already.

Alternatively, keep sending this to the Olympics so the world at least has a good joke to tell at your expense. Besides all the normal ones.

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 12 May 2025, 21:42:41

Image

US Natural Gas Production is Plummeting
Natural gas production is plummeting—a condition noted by almost no analysts. Between December 2023 and May 2024, U.S. dry gas supply has contracted by a notable 5 billion cubic feet per day—a nearly 5% reduction. On a year-over-year basis, the decline stands at 2.2 bcf/d. The drawdown is the sharpest since the shale revolution began, excluding the 2020 COVID year. Both shale and conventional production have taken a hit...

The Marcellus, the once-mighty giant, has seen its production fall by 1.1 bcf/d since December, while the Haynesville has shed 500 mmcf/d. The Permian Basin still stands as the lone growth exception, eking out a modest gain of 265 mmcf/d over the same period... While low prices have certainly dampened drilling activity—evidenced by the gas-directed rig count, which has fallen to 100 rigs from 166 in 2022 and 200 in 2019—price alone does not tell the full story. We posit that the shale gas basins are simply running out of high-quality drilling inventory. Our proprietary neural network, developed in 2018 to analyze shale trends, has long indicated that the Marcellus, Haynesville, and Permian were approaching peak production. Now, all three basins have produced 50% of their total recoverable reserves, a harbinger of imminent declines. Particularly in the Marcellus and Haynesville, the depletion of Tier 1 drilling locations combined with falling rig counts strongly suggests that production declines should accelerate.
https://aheadoftheherd.com/us-natural-g ... lummeting/

Yes that article is several months old but it concisely points to the issue. The US is maxed out on Gas.

What's behind the fall of US Gas Inventories by 25% in 2025

U.S. storage capacity is below average.
After a harsh January, U.S. gas inventories fell to 1,760 Bcf as of February 28, ~11-12% below the 5-year average and ~25% below last year (EIA). Record withdrawals have left inventories 12% below the 2020-2024 norm, leading to tight supplies and higher prices ahead of the spring restocking season.
https://energycentral.com/c/og/whats-be ... es-25-2025

The article yabbers on about tariffs and Canadian imports but it's clear current production can't keep pace with demand. Peak Nat Gas? Inevitable given the Lion's share comes from the unconventional plays. Bad news for anyone living in a cold climate, like Boulder Colorado with it's low 20's in Winter. For those in advanced economies that's -2 to -6 degrees Celsius.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 13 May 2025, 13:08:50

theluckycountry wrote:
US Natural Gas Production is Plummeting


US Natural Gas Production Flat in 2024

Australian Olympians. Just as talented as their high school dropouts.

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Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby careinke » Thu 15 May 2025, 18:56:22

theluckycountry wrote:Image

US Natural Gas Production is Plummeting
Natural gas production is plummeting—a condition noted by almost no analysts. Between December 2023 and May 2024, U.S. dry gas supply has contracted by a notable 5 billion cubic feet per day—a nearly 5% reduction. On a year-over-year basis, the decline stands at 2.2 bcf/d. The drawdown is the sharpest since the shale revolution began, excluding the 2020 COVID year. Both shale and conventional production have taken a hit...

The Marcellus, the once-mighty giant, has seen its production fall by 1.1 bcf/d since December, while the Haynesville has shed 500 mmcf/d. The Permian Basin still stands as the lone growth exception, eking out a modest gain of 265 mmcf/d over the same period... While low prices have certainly dampened drilling activity—evidenced by the gas-directed rig count, which has fallen to 100 rigs from 166 in 2022 and 200 in 2019—price alone does not tell the full story. We posit that the shale gas basins are simply running out of high-quality drilling inventory. Our proprietary neural network, developed in 2018 to analyze shale trends, has long indicated that the Marcellus, Haynesville, and Permian were approaching peak production. Now, all three basins have produced 50% of their total recoverable reserves, a harbinger of imminent declines. Particularly in the Marcellus and Haynesville, the depletion of Tier 1 drilling locations combined with falling rig counts strongly suggests that production declines should accelerate.
https://aheadoftheherd.com/us-natural-g ... lummeting/

Yes that article is several months old but it concisely points to the issue. The US is maxed out on Gas.



It was also under the puppet masters regime of the racist Brain Dead Brandon. If you haven't noticed, we have a new executive branch.

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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Thu 15 May 2025, 22:12:42

careinke wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:Image

US Natural Gas Production is Plummeting


It was also under the puppet masters regime of the racist Brain Dead Brandon. If you haven't noticed, we have a new executive branch.

PEACE


Hadn't heard of Brandon being a rascist. Is there a story behind that?

The new executive branch hasn't changed anything of note to UNLEASH AMERICAN ENERGY POWER!!!! There is like this rule of nature, doesn't matter how many felon convictions you have earned, you aren't about to change the geology under your feet.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby careinke » Fri 16 May 2025, 01:34:30

AdamB wrote:
careinke wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:Image

US Natural Gas Production is Plummeting


It was also under the puppet masters regime of the racist Brain Dead Brandon. If you haven't noticed, we have a new executive branch.

PEACE


Hadn't heard of Brandon being a rascist. Is there a story behind that?

The new executive branch hasn't changed anything of note to UNLEASH AMERICAN ENERGY POWER!!!! There is like this rule of nature, doesn't matter how many felon convictions you have earned, you aren't about to change the geology under your feet.


First Brandon was a Dim, they are all racists, that's all they can talk about. One of many examples of this is DEI it makes race more important than ability.

As far as a convicted felon, seems the judge is corrupt, and will probably be serving some prison time. This of course opens the door for challenging all of her decisions. No need to change the geology, just the bureaucracy.


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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 16 May 2025, 18:10:40

careinke wrote:
AdamB wrote:Hadn't heard of Brandon being a rascist. Is there a story behind that?


First Brandon was a Dim, they are all racists, that's all they can talk about. One of many examples of this is DEI it makes race more important than ability.


Well, in the Jim Crowe days sure, the Dems were fairly heavy racists. But globalization and the selling out of the American middle class and manufacturing centers, that was inflicted on the country by both Democans and Republicrats.

careinke wrote:As far as a convicted felon, seems the judge is corrupt, and will probably be serving some prison time.


Maybe. Maybe not. The judge hasn't been convicted of anything, but the Dear Leader has. additionally, the judge hasn't been found guilty of sexually assaulting any women has he?

So he seems safe from being a two time loser like our Dear Leader.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Sat 17 May 2025, 09:16:01

Brrrr. It'll be like England soon, heat or eat. 200 years ago I guess it made sense to go up there into the mountains, there was abundant free wood and the land was dirt cheap. Then fossil fuels came along and everyone lost their minds, installed big gas furnaces and heated their driveways, life must go on just like in Summer hey. But no one was thinking ahead to the day when the Gas would become scarce. Well that day is upon us, and now changes must be made. But what change can you initiate? You can't go back to when a forest was out your back door. Moving out is the logical choice, leaving before house prices plummet in cold regions.

Image

Seasons Impact Real Estate More Than You Think
in cities like Denver, the cold weather climate plays a part in the seasonality of the market by slowing down the typically brisk pace of home sales. It’s important to be able to identify the factors that influence your region so you can understand the impact of seasonality trends on the housing market

Experts explain why your heating is so expensive this winter 2024

The cost of heating a home has risen steeply this winter. These are the reasons why and how you can reduce your heating bills. Pay energy bills and you can’t have failed to notice that these costs are currently very high. But why is heating so expensive right now? For almost all US energy bill-payers, home heating costs involve significant expenditure because they remain at what the National Energy Assistance Directors’ Association (NEADA) identifies as near record levels.

To understand what’s happening, we asked the experts about the cause of these high prices for heating a home – and to advise on the measures you can take to lower your costs as much as possible – and this is what they told us.
https://www.homesandgardens.com/solved/ ... -expensive

It's the tip of the iceberg, Gas prices have fluctuated a lot but only a complete idiot (adam) would deny that they will rise over time relative to income. It's all part of the PeakOil matrix, Gas being worse since it falls off a cliff as a field approaches end of life. The only hope many have is that they will die before it gets too bad. But who wants to die in a freezing cold house? You think this is hyperbole? Tens of thousands of elderly die of cold in UK winters every year. They call them "Excess Deaths" and attribute them to colds and flu. Yes the flu will get you, in a freezing cold home.

Government figures (fudged no doubt)
Main findings
The new report estimates that there were 10,890 excess deaths in England in 2023 (2% higher than expected), compared with what would be expected based on 2018 to 2022 trends, after accounting for the pandemic and revised population estimates.
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistic ... commentary

There is a direct correlation between number of deaths and mean Winter temperature.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Sat 17 May 2025, 14:48:49

theluckycountry wrote:There is a direct correlation between number of deaths and mean Winter temperature.


There is a direct inverse correlation between IQ and being a parrot. Congradulations on being a highly functional parrot.
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Tanada » Wed 21 May 2025, 20:41:30

AdamB wrote:
careinke wrote:
theluckycountry wrote:Image

US Natural Gas Production is Plummeting


It was also under the puppet masters regime of the racist Brain Dead Brandon. If you haven't noticed, we have a new executive branch.

PEACE


Hadn't heard of Brandon being a rascist. Is there a story behind that?

The new executive branch hasn't changed anything of note to UNLEASH AMERICAN ENERGY POWER!!!! There is like this rule of nature, doesn't matter how many felon convictions you have earned, you aren't about to change the geology under your feet.


Pres Joe Biden is a very old Democrat who was raised when keeping down the people who were not European of origin was considered just common sense. In 2024 on at least two occasions I saw him go through groups of supporters where there were mostly white faces and he deliberately stepped past the few African-American average types without touching/shaking/sniffing as he is well known to do with other women. He has also been caught saying very racist things on multiple occasions which are usually ignored or buried buy the mainstream media. https://www.shorenewsnetwork.com/2024/0 ... oes-viral/
Alfred Tennyson wrote:We are not now that strength which in old days
Moved earth and heaven, that which we are, we are;
One equal temper of heroic hearts,
Made weak by time and fate, but strong in will
To strive, to seek, to find, and not to yield.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby Newfie » Thu 22 May 2025, 17:25:53

Tanada,
I have not seen that action, which is not surprising as I haven’t had a TV in nearly 2 decades.

I have sort of followed Joe as he was a big Amtrak supporter and I once worked there and later they were a client.

Joe has always been a hoot, I used to joke I wanted him President because he would open his mouth and let the truth slip out.

There is a lot of irony around Joe.
He was picked as VP. My assessment is VP’s are selected to assure the #2 guy never looks better than the #1. So being VP was an honor and a step up, but it must have also been bitter fruit.

Then Obama picks Hillary over Joe. An obvious snub. And what Obama did to the D party was to usurp the primary selection process and appoint the D candidate.

Back to Joe, Obama then forces Joe onto the party by pushing out the other candidates. And I believe Barack pushed Harris on Joe. So here is Joe finally getting what he really wanted, but only from a Black man who snubbed him.

In the final irony Barack, the great man, either ignores the situation or screws it up royally. In either case Obama directly or indirectly is responsible for Trumps victory. Remember Trump had only a narrow win, the Electoral Collage aside, with 31% vs Harris at 30% with 36% being turned off by both candidates.

What the hell this has to do with with Natural Gas is any ones guess.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 23 May 2025, 03:26:45

The people focus all their attention on these lone men, ascribing all the changes in society to them simply because they went in front of a camera and claimed to be directing it. Then 90% of the promises fail and they leave office, never to be heard from again typically, never to be held accountable. It's as close to the old Roman Caesar model as you could get aside from the fact the men never die in office and are not to my mind responsible for the actions taken.

President Biden signed the historic and bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act into law investing nearly $53 billion in funding to bring semiconductor supply chains back to Amer...

Inflation Reduction Act
The law will raise $738 billion from tax reform and prescription drug reform to lower prices, as well as authorize $891 billion in total spending.


Smoke and mirrors. Telling people what they want to hear and delivering little. How much of that money was diverted to other uses I wonder... And how many of the current promises will be met with the Big Beautiful bill? One is assured, the raising of the debt ceiling and the spending of the 4 Trillion. Manufacturers will race back home because of tariffs? Not likely. Even with tariffs the profit manufacturing labor intensive is better OS. The corporations will just lose some of the profit they currently keep OS by selling the product through low tax havens.
Ikea's taxes scrutinised after €1bn underpayment claim
This article is more than 9 years old

Research accuses Ikea of structuring itself to dodge taxes between 2009 and 2014 by using onshore European tax havens. Research commissioned by the Green/EFA group in the European parliament claims to show that Ikea “structured itself to dodge €1bn in taxes...
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ment-claim

That's powerful European watchdogs, there are no such in the US.
Apple has historically kept a significant portion of its profits offshore. This is largely due to its complex corporate structure and the use of tax havens to minimize its overall tax burden. Apple has been criticized for this practice, but it argues that it's following legal tax strategies.
That's why when you buy an iphone, an American product, you pay more than a Samsung (South Korean) even though they are comparable products. You pay more because the American corporations are greedier than the Korean ones :lol: Image
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 23 May 2025, 03:40:02

Chip Workers Are Likely to Quit Jobs, Worsening Labor Shortage
one year ago...

At a time when the US is looking to attract more skilled workers to semiconductor manufacturing, many current employees are rethinking whether they want to stick around, according to a McKinsey & Co. report that underscores the chip industry’s labor challenges. More than half of semiconductor and electronics employees said in 2023 that they are at least somewhat likely to leave their current jobs in the next three to six months, according to the report. That’s up from around two-fifths of workers in 2021. The most commonly cited reason was a lack of career development, followed by limited workplace flexibility.

That’s an ominous sign for chipmakers like Intel and Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. that are building massive new semiconductor factories in the US — spurred by the 2022 Chips and Science Act. The ambitious expansion hinges on finding enough workers to equip and staff the facilities. The challenge spans three distinct labor pools: construction craft labor, technicians who design and install equipment during the final phases of construction, and both technicians and engineers who keep facilities running once they’re built.

The McKinsey report estimates that workforce development programs specifically for semiconductors are on track to produce around 12,000 engineers and 31,500 technicians by 2029. But just one leading-edge chip facility requires as many as 1,350 engineers and 1,200 technicians to operate.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/chip-wor ... 00534.html

The trump initiative will fail for the same reason. Throwing Government money to the private sector just results in the private sector executives getting richer. It doesn't guarantee jobs. Most hi-tech jobs left the US decades ago and will never return, they don't have the trained personal nor the training facilities. The UK went through this stage, Australia too. No use pretending, just move on, get a job as a Doctor or a landscaping contractor. Parasitic home maintenance is where most of the new steady jobs went, years ago.
We're 17 years past the peak now and the 3rd World is going hungry and dark. We'll be next, we're well on the way in fact.
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Re: THE Natural Gas Thread Pt. 2

Unread postby AdamB » Fri 23 May 2025, 19:37:43

theluckycountry wrote:The people focus all their attention on these lone men, ascribing all the changes in society to them simply because they went in front of a camera and claimed to be directing it.


Or the lone Olympian, demonstrating the quality of and capability of their countries finest.

Image[/quote]
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