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Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

General discussions of the systemic, societal and civilisational effects of depletion.

Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby mousepad » Mon 25 Mar 2024, 08:21:42

Collapse is slow enough to be seen as "change", only.

The West went from ruling the world to bending over backwards to 3rd world invaders within about 100 years. If that aint' collapse I don't know what is.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 25 Mar 2024, 17:58:17

mousepad wrote:Collapse is slow enough to be seen as "change", only.


That's what people never grasp. And they can't! Because they only think a few weeks or months into the future. When they look at the past, if they look at the past, it's through the Lens of propaganda. "We were so intolerant back then, we didn't even allow men in women's change rooms, our bad"

Public health; road networks, electricity grids, public education, everything that got exponentially better and better after 1945, flipped and started to get worse after 1975. When did the U.S. conventional (cheap) oil fields peak in production, around 1970. The US empire will go down as one of the shortest in history. The last stage is when the barbarians invade.
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby jedrider » Fri 29 Mar 2024, 14:27:27

mousepad wrote:Collapse is slow enough to be seen as "change", only.


I guess that's until one is physical running away from the danger, sort of like only when it's in the rearview mirror.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 29 Mar 2024, 21:21:07

"Long emergency"
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 01 Apr 2024, 06:39:07

ralfy wrote:"Long emergency"


That was a good book, penned in a good era too. An era of openness and honesty. Unfortunately the revelations of that era lead to huge coverups like the shale oil revolution, the EV revolution and the windpower/solar power revolution. All of which have been shown to be abject failures as far as solving our basic problem. Dwindling energy supplies. The coverup worked well too, no one has peakoil on their radar now do they. It's been 'debunked'.

One aspect of this is that the myriad of hopeful souls who bought into these White Elephants have now vanished off the forums, unable to cope with reality probably, or they remained, but can't let the grifts go. They have to double down as they try and prove these technologies still matter.

The future? These technologies became a tomb for trillions in retirement savings. The Elon Musks of the world have sold half their shares into the Wallstreet pension machine and are set for life. Main street Bob and Alice though are still all-in, walking up the Aisles of the supermarket past all the stuff they can't afford now. They were relying on the productivity of these companies for retirement, those on the inside as a quick money grab.

MoneyWatch A solution to the retirement crisis? Americans should work for more years, BlackRock CEO says

He's worth 1.2 Billion, so why is he even commenting. It's just all part of the spin, "You're not saving enough" "Your expectations are too high" When the truth is "Blackrock's predatory business practices loot the American public"

The U.S. Shale Revolution Has Surrendered to Reality
Fracking companies aren’t drilling as investment continues to dry up.
https://www.desmog.com/2021/07/16/us-sh ... nvestment/

Excuse me? These are oil wells, oil companies, a license to print money we were told. Huge profits just like the old days, you can't miss if you buy in. America the world's biggest exporter. Well apparently not! And what of all the posts on this forum about the subject... Where are those fan boi?

(Reuters) -Rising costs and shortages of labor and materials have plagued U.S. shale oil production all year, and in the waning days of 2022, Shortages of labor, rising costs. None of that matters if you have a viable gold mine today because the earnings mean you can hire who you want, they will come running for a good wage. Shale oil was NEVER viable. It ran on investor debt from start to finish. It was a money laundering enterprise that created a few jobs along the way, paid for by the ponzi income.

Both Rivian and Lucid are now worth a fraction of the prices they fetched at their public-market debuts in 2021. Rivian’s market value is around $9.6 billion, and Lucid’s is about $6.9 billion. That’s a long way down from their $153 billion and $91 billion valuation peaks in 2021.
https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/investors-f ... -1.2038805

Who the hell got left holding that bag.


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The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby ralfy » Fri 17 May 2024, 09:21:12

"The Collapse Is Coming. Will Humanity Adapt?"

https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/the- ... ity-adapt/
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Fri 17 May 2024, 18:24:06

ralfy wrote:"The Collapse Is Coming. Will Humanity Adapt?"

https://thereader.mitpress.mit.edu/the- ... ity-adapt/


Interesting read ralfy, especially the linked pdf from the Melbourne institute. A good update on many of the issues we came together here at peakoil.com to thrash out.
"So we have to understand that we’ve produced a lot of human beings on this planet who can’t survive outside of this technologically dependent existence".
This is what the business as usual, BAU, schema has given us. Solar/wind to the modern version of the electric car, measures taken to transition us away from our utter dependence on oil but they are in themselves utterly dependent on fossil fuels.

It reminds me of a particularly difficult mathematical proof I encountered on an test paper years ago, I spent more time on that single question than any other on the exam paper and all I achieved was a series of steps that worked back around to the original question. After which I wrote (which proves absolutely nothing) Our endeavors here, to find a way to mitigate the peak oil crises, have been no different. We are right back where we were 25 years ago and all we have done as humans is to waste 25 years and untold oil gas and coal. And it was a waste, burnt up tail pipes, billions of plastic bags, hundreds of millions of solar panels that will be a landfill nightmare in another 25 years.

Those guys in the article are basically post-collapse-ologists, trying to find a way to preserve some of the technology of 'now' for use after the collapse. I empathize with them because we're going to lose the lot probably, the medical care, the entire electricity framework, the roads and mobility, most of the food and housing we are used to. It's all baked into the cake because it's all dependent on fossil fuels, long transport lines and a complex distributed manufacturing network. All magnificent previous empires on Earth collapsed for the same reasons, minus the oil dependence. That was our crowning achievement, and our greatest liability.

Unfortunately our erstwhile author is focused now on a rapid rebuild of the technological society soon after the collapse of it? He leans too heavily of the SciFi trilogy "Foundation" by Asimov I'm afraid. Well that's only natural since he's transitioned from a marine biologist to a Hugo Award-winning science-fiction author but it doesn't help the case giving people another dose of Hopium. I wont make the case myself 'why' we are doomed to collapse, if you haven't figured that out by now, you never will. Just enjoy you're Netflix and Cheetos while you can.

Here, look at the start page of Bing Images. It's all an A.I. fantasy now, the whole world is a fantasy now.
https://www.bing.com/images/feed
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Mon 19 Aug 2024, 20:14:44

Lebanon Plunged Into Darkness As Last Operational Power Plant Runs Out Of Fuel

Well that's how it happens when the industrial era comes to an end. We're seeing this failure of grids more and more now, by 2030 half the world will be dark probably.

The entirety of the Lebanese capital and the whole nation has been plunged into darkness amid a crippling power outage which has been in effect since midday Saturday.

That's when the state power provider Electricité du Liban (EDL) announced in a statement that "the last operational unit at the Zahrani power plant was forced to shut down completely, due to the complete depletion of the plant's fuel oil reserves, resulting in a total power outage across all Lebanese territories."

While Lebanon's economic and electricity and resource woes have been exacerbated by the de facto state of war between Hezbollah and Israel in the southern border, the reality is the country has already suffered energy shortages and rolling blackouts for at least the last two years following the banking and currency crisis. Some Western analysts have blamed Hezbollah for stealing and diverting fuel and electricity from Beirut airport, and for holding the country's resources hostage, but the economic woes are a much bigger force which have been felt for a long time before the current conflict with Israel.

First the poor nations, then the developing nations, and finally the first world nations as their vast ageing grids collapse from lack of maintenance and upgrades. It will be nice to see the stars at night again :)
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 20 Aug 2024, 11:16:21

mousepad wrote:Collapse is slow enough to be seen as "change", only.

The West went from ruling the world to bending over backwards to 3rd world invaders within about 100 years. If that aint' collapse I don't know what is.


Do you think the West thought the same thing with the Irish and the Germans in their millions back around 1830-1850? 23 million folks from 1880-1930...sounds like an invasion to me! I wonder how many of our parents/grandparents were descendants of these invaders? And those millions of Eye-talians..I mean GEEZ!

Strikes me that the irony of Americans complaining about 3rd world invaders is hysterical, as all of them are themselves invaders who killed off indigenous peoples to steal their land in the first place. An event that continues to this day, when the Federal government decides it wants to nibble a little more here and there away from the land set aside for the true Americans to try and make up for having stolen it ALL from those who owned it in the first place.

I presume you are Native American Mouse, at least a little, because otherwise complaints about "invasion" into modern America is more than a little amusing.

I wonder if those original thieves of American land labelled it a collapse when all those Irish, Germans and Eye-talians showed up to try and get a little bit of that freedom thing?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby mousepad » Tue 20 Aug 2024, 11:52:31

AdamB wrote:
mousepad wrote:Collapse is slow enough to be seen as "change", only.

The West went from ruling the world to bending over backwards to 3rd world invaders within about 100 years. If that aint' collapse I don't know what is.


Do you think the West thought the same thing with the Irish and the Germans in their millions back around 1830-1850? 23 million folks from 1880-1930...sounds like an invasion to me! I wonder how many of our parents/grandparents were descendants of these invaders? And those millions of Eye-talians..I mean GEEZ!

Not quite sure what you are talking about, here. As "West" I define europe and the cultural decedent nations of europe.

as all of them are themselves invaders

Exactly. I assume that the invasion of europeans into the americas must have been a very painful cultural event for the Indians. Yet the West doesn't seem to learn anything from it, but lets itself be invaded and its culture destroyed. Crazy. I recommend an educational trip to some major european city (a bit away from tourist locations) to experience for yourself what destruction and replacement of local identify and culture looks like. I especially recommend train stations of major cities in france, germany and the UK.

having stolen it ALL from those who owned it in the first place.

Don't go down the "stolen land" BS road. Indians have stolen, conquered and massacred each others long before europeans showed up. And the indian land was not stolen, it was conquered. Just the same way land in europe was frequently conquered among each others. And the same way the aztecs conquered all their surrounding nations. The indians just had the bad luck of being hopelessly outnumbered, outgunned and out-technologized.

I presume you are Native American Mouse, at least a little, because otherwise complaints about "invasion" into modern America is more than a little amusing.

Another woke BS crap. At what point do you become a "native". After 1 generation? After 10? 100? 1000?
500 years ago my ancestors moved from eastern europe to western europe. Are they natives of western europe by now? Or are my relatives living on "stolen land"?

I wonder if those original thieves of American land labelled it a collapse when all those Irish, Germans and Eye-talians showed up to try and get a little bit of that freedom thing?

Of course they did. How would you call it? The total destruction of their identity, culture and heritage. The all "emotional, hurt your feeling" wokes should realize that such an experience can't possibly be fun, yet they haven't learnd anything and seem hellbent on destroying their own identity and culture.

Pls do me a favor and quit the woke stolen land, victim crap. Thanks. You are too smart for it.

Europe. Going from ruling the world technologically, philosophically, culturally, religiously and militarily to being invaded by 3rd world in their homeland all within 100 years. If that ain't collapse I don't know what is.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Tue 20 Aug 2024, 16:06:49

Who's Receiving The Most Green Cards (By Country Of Origin)

The data was sourced from the Office of Homeland Security Statistics. In total, 1,018,340 people received green cards in 2022. The U.S. is home to more immigrants than any other nation, surpassing the combined totals of Germany, Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the United Kingdom.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/ ... try-origin


We're talking hundreds of thousands of Mexicans, Indians and Chinese, and then 100,000 odd from the "shitholes" down south as President Trump referred to. And that's just the legitimized ones from a 2002 list, how many millions more are now infesting US cities like rats? Most are genuine refugees fleeing to "a better lifestyle" thanks to the imagery on TV and social media. And they are getting it too, for a little while...

But what happens when the free CC is empty? When the flash New York hotels push them out on the curbs? Most of these people are used to living hand to mouth, they don't know how the function in a modern civilization where you need a decent job just to afford food and accommodation. And many of these are criminals, murderer, rapists, violent young men. 60,000 homeless refugees in New York alone, a couple of army divisions! It's a TimeBomb, it really is.

Image

Image

Look at that last pic, what do you see? I see the oppressed black man obeying his White masters, but in their heads they know that's just for now, soon their turn will come, it will come they say. They know that for generations Whitee has exploited their home nations, installing puppet leaders, suppressing wages. I watched a vid the other night of tourists over on Hawaii trying to talk to locals, decedents of the original Islanders. "Just don't move here, go home." When pressed they said "Get away from me Whitee!" And these are Americans, but they hate the tourists, they want their money but nothing else to do with them and they don't want them coming over to live.

Interesting dynamic isn't it? And we're seeing it boiling to the surface all over the world. Hatred between races, a lot of it directed at the White race because we have been living high on the hog at their expense. God help you if you are living among these people when the oil gets scarce and the economy really begins to collapse.

The Rwandan genocide, also known as the genocide against the Tutsi, occurred between 7 April and 19 July 1994 during the Rwandan Civil War. During this period of around 100 days, members of the Tutsi minority ethnic group, as well as some moderate Hutu and Twa, were killed by armed Hutu militias.


The Tutsi were not a seperate people before the White colonialists arrived. They were chosen out of the black race as a whole to work in White homes etc because they had White features! True, you couldn't make this shit up. pointier noses, that sort of thing. They became a black upper class and the other blacks hated them.
The Tutsis, who made up 8.4 percent of the population according to a 1991 census, were believed to be genealogically closer to white Europeans under now-debunked scientific theories and were favoured under Belgian colonialism.
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/4/7 ... n-genocide
Now picture this happening in your area in the years ahead. In Rwanda things reached a flash point and then the killing frenzy began. Scores were settled, then things quieted down after an invasion of a neighbor quelled it, but I'll wager those tensions still exist there, just waiting for another opportunity to settle old scores. You don't see it now and you probably won't believe it until it happens, but look at the BLM protests that tore up US city centers. That was the tip of the iceberg.
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Tue 27 Aug 2024, 18:50:52

theluckycountry wrote: I see the oppressed black man obeying his White masters, but in their heads they know that's just for now, soon their turn will come, it will come they say. They know that for generations Whitee has exploited their home nations, installing puppet leaders, suppressing wages.


Interesting in all your examples you didn't mention the obvious group of indigenous peoples bumped off or abused by the descendants of the British Empires dumping ground for criminals and the mentally challenged?
Plant Thu 27 Jul 2023 "Personally I think the IEA is exactly right when they predict peak oil in the 2020s, especially because it matches my own predictions."

Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby theluckycountry » Wed 28 Aug 2024, 14:34:19

The Native American Indian? Not enough of them left to push back.
The 'peak oil' story is not over by any means. Fracking was a desperate and ruinous sort of pause, which has been used to crank up demand.
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Re: Collapse probably won't happen Pt. 3

Unread postby AdamB » Wed 28 Aug 2024, 14:57:22

theluckycountry wrote:The Native American Indian? Not enough of them left to push back.

That's because the early, murderous and quite exceptional invaders of North America were the same ones that threw off the British Empire that your country hasn't grown the cajones to do these centuries later.

We were quite rude to the owners of the property we stole. But I was referring to yours. Did they teach you personally how to ride kangaroos or is that something you are taught in some level of public school?

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Plant Wed 11 Apr 2007 "I think Deffeyes might have nailed it, and we are just past the overall peak in oil production. (Thanksgiving 2005)"
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